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-   -   US to attack Iran? (https://thetfp.com/tfp/tilted-politics/122873-us-attack-iran.html)

Rekna 08-23-2007 09:54 AM

US to attack Iran?
 
There has been some troubling developments with Iran over the last few months. Below are a few examples:

http://www.democracynow.org/article..../08/23/1333237
Quote:

John Bolton Says He Hopes U.S. Will Invade Iran
Former CIA operative Robert Baer is predicting the U.S. will attack Iran within the next six months. Baer wrote an article in this week's Time Magazine in which he s an unnamed Bush administration official saying "There will be an attack on Iran." On Wednesday former UN ambassador John Bolton told Fox News that he hopes the attack will happen.

* John Bolton: "Absolutely. I hope Iran understands that we are very serious, that we are determined they are not going to get a nuclear weapon capability, and unless they change the strategic decision they’ve been pursuing for close to 20 years, that that’s something they better factor into their calculations."

John Bolton is preparing to release a new book titled "Surrender is not an Option."
Also look at the posturing being done by Fox News:
http://www.youtube.com/v/1-eyuFBrWHs
(if someone knows how to imbed this please let me know).



Are we gearing up for another war? What would this do to the upcoming elections? What would this do to our troops? Is there anyway to have a 3rd war without a draft? Or is Fox's posturing just about creating an environment of fear for its listeners in order to get and maintain GOP support?

Bill O'Rights 08-23-2007 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rekna
Is there anyway to have a 3rd war without a draft?

I don't think that we're going to be able to sustain the second war for very much longer without a draft, let alone a third one. I wonder how many 18-26 year olds will suddenly come to terms with their "homosexuality" and come out of the closet?

mixedmedia 08-23-2007 10:14 AM

I have a hard time taking this seriously. But if you would have asked me 10 years ago if I thought any of this current absurdity would have been going on I wouldn't have believed it, either.

Let's just say that I hope with every fibre of my being that it is bullshit distraction.

Willravel 08-23-2007 10:21 AM

We're going to bomb them into oblivion first. More civilian casualties than in Iraq, and basically level before we set foot in there. We're going to hit chemical plants and even their nuclear site so that the whole place gets poisoned. It makes me sick, but it's very likely at this point. We're in the middle of lying about them developing nuclear weapons, having ties to terrorism, backing the insurgents, etc. It's probably going to happen, and it's going to happen before Hillary gets elected (another prediction that pisses me off).

tecoyah 08-23-2007 12:44 PM

I just signed the petition....its a tiny little gesture, but at least its a gesture.

http://foxattacks.com/iran

I refuse to watch the Media create war.

kurty[B] 08-23-2007 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel
We're in the middle of lying about them developing nuclear weapons, having ties to terrorism, backing the insurgents, etc.

That's the scariest thing. The news claims to show "the facts" while lying bold faced to the world. One network pushes it, and the others follow suit because they have to make sure they're reporting the "top stories".

I would hope the current administration is smart enough to realize our military is not limitless. I'm afraid that they probably look at the map and say "well, if we involve Iran then it's just a war against the Middle East and not a war in Iraq and war in Afghanistan.

Fire 08-23-2007 05:41 PM

I am all for killing extremists that hate us, but this seems like a bad way to attempt it.......... and a great way to make more extremists....... and bog down the military in another nation building fiasco (when will the powers what is figure out that the military is for nation destroying, and by nature not so good at nation building)

fooie 08-24-2007 05:24 AM

Quote:

The man President Bush selected to be the nation’s “War Czar” says it is time to consider a return to a military draft.

http://www.wacotrib.com/opin/content...7wacrncol.html

Perhaps this is as much preparatory for an invasion of Iran as it is to shore up efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

fastom 08-25-2007 12:33 AM

There was a three hour lineup at the Canadian border today... better get packing!

archetypal fool 08-25-2007 04:22 AM

Disgusting - The Administration pushes for a war against Iran and, out of the blue, Fox follows suit with blatant propaganda. If there was ever any proof that the US is going to burn unless something is done to take power away from morally corrupt Neo-Cons or the malleable news coverage is reformed, this is it.

Nothing good can come from attacking Iran - the same was said about Iraq, and look where we are on that front. Not to mention, Iran is not like Iraq - it has allies in Russia and China, and is close to producing its own nuclear weapons. It would be a profoundly stupid move to attack Iran - but I wouldn't put it past the current administration.

Something bad is going to happen me thinks.

roachboy 08-25-2007 06:57 AM

pretext building has been ongoing--for example last week a report surfaced somewhere (in a newspaper, but i cant remember which) that the bush people wanted to declare elements within the iranian military a "terrorist organization"...

this is a horrible idea. i keep hoping that the political support the bush people are able to pretend they maintain is collapsing so fast and so thoroughly that an action against iran is ruled out. but then i think: uh...there is little reason to expect that the bush people and reason ever enter the same room.

so i dunno: the possibility is certainly there and has been for some time.
whether the "decider" undertakes an action that'll make the war in iraq look like a session in a sauna or not is still hard to say.

but i agree with the last night of af's post above absolutely.

Plan9 08-25-2007 11:55 AM

I hope we don't stick our dick in anybody else's pie for a long, long time.

(keeps his USAR duffel bag packed anyway)

fresnelly 08-25-2007 01:19 PM

My feeling is that the US will only attack Iran if there is some sort of spectacular terrorist action that can be successfully linked to Iranian nationals. That's my nightmare scenario.

Plan9 08-25-2007 03:25 PM

Who needs a nightmare scenario when we have idiots in office?

Infinite_Loser 08-25-2007 09:49 PM

I like the idea of the draft, so long as the people in the Bush administration are the first draftees.

Though, part of me wonders how they would ever get away with attacking Iran, seeing as how the majority of the American public hates the current war in Iraq.

DaveOrion 08-26-2007 06:10 AM

Great Idea I_L, perhaps Bush's daughters could be the first in line for the draft. Followed by all the children, of all the neocon's that seem hell bent on securing vital natural resources in the middle east. You gotta love that smokescreen though, it worked before, why not again???

Baraka_Guru 08-26-2007 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel
We're going to bomb them into oblivion first. More civilian casualties than in Iraq, and basically level before we set foot in there.

Yeah, I don't think they'll even attempt hearts and minds here; they'll go straight to shock and awe....it takes fewer troops. But they'd better make it quick, Russia's aviation industry is booming.

Plan9 08-26-2007 10:11 AM

(votes for a major world power to invade the US)

(for a change)

ASU2003 08-27-2007 05:14 PM

You don't need to invade the entire USA, just DC and Crawford.

DaveOrion 08-27-2007 05:33 PM

I vote no, thats a bit extreme.

fastom 08-28-2007 10:20 AM

Perhaps the Crawford branch of Al Queda needs to be tossed from office before he starts WW3.

roachboy 08-29-2007 06:41 AM

Quote:

Bush threatens to confront Iran over alleged support for Iraqi insurgents


· US president accuses Tehran of arming militants
· Speech aimed at shoring up support for 'surge'

Ed Pilkington in New York
Wednesday August 29, 2007
The Guardian


George Bush yesterday ramped up the war of words between the US and Iran, accusing Tehran of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust and revealing that he had authorised US military commanders in Iraq to "confront Tehran's murderous activities".

In a speech designed to shore up US public opinion behind his unpopular strategy in Iraq, the president reserved his strongest words for the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which he accused of openly supporting violent forces within Iraq. Iran, he said, was responsible for training extremist Shia factions in Iraq, supplying them with weapons, including sophisticated roadside bombs. Iran has denied all these accusations.

Mr Bush referred specifically to 240mm rockets which he said were made in Iran this year and smuggled into Iraq.

"Iran has long been a source of trouble in the region," he said." Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust."

The blunt terms in which Mr Bush portrayed the Iranian threat, and his threat of military confrontation with Tehran involving US troops based in Iraq, elevated the tense standoff between Washington and Tehran to a new level.

The speech also contained the implicit desire on Mr Bush's part for regime change, calling for "an Iran whose government is accountable to its people, instead of to leaders who promote terror and pursue the technology that could be used to develop nuclear weapons".

Equally menacing words emanated from Tehran yesterday, where Mr Ahmadinejad said US influence in the region was collapsing so fast that a power vacuum would soon be created. "Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap," he said.

Though the Iranian president said he backed the leadership of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, and welcomed the involvement of Saudi Arabia, his offer to occupy the space the Americans might leave behind is unlikely to cool emotions in Washington.

He went on to deride the possibility of the US pursuing military action in Iran, saying it was in no position to do so and claimed that Iran had already acquired enriched nuclear fuels, though they would only be used for peaceful purposes.

In a further cause of tension, Mr Bush accused the Quds force within Iran's revolutionary guards of leading the supply chain to Iraqi extremist groups. As the Guardian revealed earlier this month, the Bush administration is preparing to declare the 125,000-strong Revolutionary Guard Corps a "global terrorist organisation" - a move that would be seen as provocative within Tehran.

According to reports from Baghdad last night, a group of Iranians were detained last night in a raid by US troops on a hotel in the city. Of 10 people arrested, seven were said to be Iranian, including an employee of the Iranian embassy and six members of Iran's electricity ministry in Iraq to discuss contracts for electric power stations. It was not immediately clear why the men had been arrested, or where they had been taken. The US military would only say the action was part of an on-going operation.

Mr Bush's bullish talk of his determination to "take the fight to the enemy" in the carefully choreographed setting of a veterans' convention in Reno, Nevada, was the second of a two-part appeal by him to shore up public support for his flagging strategy on Iraq. In the first speech, made last week, he invoked Vietnam to argue that quitting Iraq now could put the lives of millions of innocent civilians at risk.

Mr Bush yesterday vowed to persevere with his controversial military policy in Iraq, insisting that political and security progress was being made, despite a rising tide of dissent even from high up within his Republican party.

"Our strategy is this: every day we work to protect the American people. We will fight them over there so that we don't have to fight them in the United States of America," he said.

The twin speeches were intended as preparation for a crucial series of debates on Iraq that will dominate Washington for the next few weeks.

In a fortnight the senior general in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and American ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Crocker, will give two days of testimony in which they are likely to argue that the troop "surge" is having some beneficial impact on security levels, though political progress lags behind.

Under the current policy, US troop numbers in Iraq have risen by 30,000 to about 165,000.

As the climax of these intense hearings, Mr Bush himself will present his latest assessment.

Yesterday's speech was the latest clear indication that he will resist any attempt to change course in the prosecution of the war.

Mr Bush's latest attempt to reassure the American people that the war is moving in the right direction came on another tumultuous day in Iraq.

Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims attending a Shia festival in Kerbala, 68 miles south-west of Baghdad, were ordered to leave the city after intense fighting broke out, reportedly between warring Shia factions. At least 52 people have been killed since Monday, mostly police officers engaging in the battle.
source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2158059,00.html

ok so while the thread veered off into some odd exchange of quips, the bush people continue trying to set up iran as a kind of fifth column in iraq. a partial explanation for american failure--for the bush administration's failure, for the failure of planning on the rumsfeld-model pentagon. the rhetoric continues to ramp up. the "case" being made here is curiously reminiscent of the kind of shabby "case" from 2003...but in this situation there are already considerable american naval resources in the persian gulf and no particular brakes--apart from logistics and politics in the more informal sense.

when i was thinking about the gonzalez resignation and its implications, i kept thinking "ok, but its not as though george w bush has vanished--this idiot is still behind the wheel of something--he needs a crisis, an event, a Problem to bypass the logic of the situation that presents itself in regular time--a situation in which all roads lead to defeat not only for george the figurehead, but also for the entire view of xecutive power generally attributed to cheney, his post-vietnam revisionism, his conception of redress...." so the political situation facing the administration is clear. their difficult in accepting reality that they do not like is clear, at least at the level of the cheap machiavellian politics they have indulged since 2001. impasse impasse impasse.

when a badly written tragedy grinds itself into an insoluble plot dilemma at odds with the desired outcome, the author generally called for my favorite cheap device, the deus ex machina--the god wheeled in on a crane, who waves his god-hands around and "fixes" all the debris left by cheap, bad plot development and whose actions enable the story to "end properly"

no-one wants a shitty ending.

on the other hand, one of the characteristics of the deus-ex-machina is that it kinda comes out of nowhere. but that's in tragedy. a deus ex machina in "real life" is more complex a contraption, requiring some building.

whence the unease generated by this latest escalation of penis-waving in the direction of iran.

now the distinction between seeing in this a cheap narrative device introduced to resuce hapless characters from their own situation--blame the Writer of course, who is the Decider in such situations---and cause for genuine alarm centers on what this statement means really:

Quote:

...revealing that he had authorised US military commanders in Iraq to "confront Tehran's murderous activities".
what is cowboy george saying here?
what authorizations? to do what exactly?


style mea culpa: the word "cheap" appears too many times in this post.
but all this *is* cheap, in the sense of bad theater.

but it would not be cheap materially, politically, militarily were the scenario behind all this were to unfold, were the bush squad to order an action against iran.

at the very least, the fact that such an action would transparently be about the bush squad propping itself up politically in the states by generating a "new threat" which would legitimate the "decider" in a situation that is no-win for him otherwise---that interpretation of any such action, no matter how it is justified by the bush squad--is so obvious and so unavoidable that it undercuts any coherent machiavellian tactic....

fastom 08-29-2007 07:23 AM

Too bad the UN can't declare Dubya and henchmen a threat to world peace and have them removed from office.

Willravel 08-29-2007 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fastom
Too bad the UN can't declare Dubya and henchmen a threat to world peace and have them removed from office.

I'd rather if the American people did it ourselves. It's our responsibility. The blood is on our hands for not stopping the invasion and subsequent genocide.

guyy 08-29-2007 12:19 PM

I'm tempted to post something about the military, political, social reasons why a military strike against Iran would be a Very Bad Idea. However, it's clear from the Iraq Debacle that BushCo. do not act rationally. Where the evidence does not suit them, they simply ignore it or have someone make up something more convenient. (I can imagine we'll hear something about how Mohamed Atta met in Prague with Iranian agents or some such nonsense.) In any case, if rational arguments are useless what sort of response is possible? I sense a Nixonian gambit, that is, an attempt to institute a state of passivity by suggesting that you're irrational.

Here's hoping that they've generated enough ill will and distrust from their phony posturing during '02 & '03 that they won't have enough support internally to pull it off.

roachboy 08-29-2007 02:55 PM

the business i read about somewhere last week of the bush people wanting to get the revolutionary guard declared a "terrorist organization" is something that made me start actively wondering what the hell they are doing....the pattern is not yet entirely obvious, but if the previous farces are any guide, we should be able to piece it together..soon if there is a bit of Theater in the works in a serious way.

Plan9 08-29-2007 03:42 PM

I like how when I talk to other soldiers about the idea of invading Iran... they don't really care. They don't think about it; politically philosophy is not a worry.

"How many pairs of socks am I packing, Sarge?"

ottopilot 08-29-2007 05:57 PM

edit

Infinite_Loser 08-29-2007 07:18 PM

I'm too lazy to go look up the answer to thsoe questions. Gimme' the answers, and then I'll post a formal response.

ottopilot 08-29-2007 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Infinite_Loser
I'm too lazy to go look up the answer to thsoe questions. Gimme' the answers, and then I'll post a formal response.

Yup. That's what I'm talking about.

Infinite_Loser 08-29-2007 07:37 PM

Well, to be honest, I don't see the point in asking a series of questions and then telling us to go look up the answers for ourselves. Seems kinda'... Pointless to me. It isn't that I don't care, but that I don't have the time to go hunting down information solely for your amusement.

(Also, I might be going crazy, but did your long-winded response disappear?)

dc_dux 08-29-2007 07:37 PM

In response to ottopilot's post (which has mysteriously disappeared) suggesting we invaded Iraq to get to Iran (?)...if that was the US plan, it was just another example of the moronic logic of the neo-conservatives.

Saddam, as brutal to his own people as he was, was also a buffer against the spread of Iran's influence in the region. The new shiia-dominated governemnt in Iraq is controlled by the Dawa and SCIRI parties, both of which have long-standing ties to Iran.

The only thing we accomplished in Iraq by removing Saddam was to strengthen Iran and the shiia extremist clerics in Iraql, like Moqtada al-Sadr

37OHSSV 08-29-2007 10:31 PM

Perhaps one of the many haters in this thread has a feasible course of action in regard to Iran?

Note: Iran does not respond to "negotiation." They just want to kill us.

dc_dux 08-30-2007 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 37OHSSV
Perhaps one of the many haters in this thread has a feasible course of action in regard to Iran?

Note: Iran does not respond to "negotiation." They just want to kill us.

Characterizing folks here with whom you disagree as "haters" hardly adds to the discussion.

You might want to consider the facts that:

* the Iranian people do not want to kill us; most are pro-western....until we indiscrimately start bombing their country and they, and their families, become the latest civilan casualties of US aggression as a result of their proximity to military sites.

* there have been virtually no high level direct discussions between the US and Iran in the six Bush years.

Fortunately there are some within the defense establishment who are not as belligerent as Cheney and the other neo-con chickenhawks.

Admiral Fallon, commander, US Central Command who said ealier this year:
Quote:

...Fallon, who was scheduled to become the CENTCOM chief Mar. 16, responded to the proposed plan by sending a strongly-worded message to the Defence Department in mid-February opposing any further U.S. naval buildup in the Persian Gulf as unwarranted.

"He asked why another aircraft carrier was needed in the Gulf and insisted there was no military requirement for it," says the source, who obtained the gist of Fallon's message from a Pentagon official who had read it.

Fallon's refusal to support a further naval buildup in the Gulf reflected his firm opposition to an attack on Iran and an apparent readiness to put his career on the line to prevent it. A source who met privately with Fallon around the time of his confirmation hearing and who insists on anonymity quoted Fallon as saying that an attack on Iran "will not happen on my watch".

Asked how he could be sure, the source says, Fallon replied, "You know what choices I have. I'm a professional." Fallon said that he was not alone, according to the source, adding, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box."
http://www.ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=37738

Let us hope he succeeds in "putting the crazies back in the box"

Here is how one report from the UK describes the potential outcome of military action against Iran:
Quote:

The report warns that US or Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities could lead to civilian deaths, radioactive contamination, heightened conflict in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan, al-Qaeda attacks stemming from intensified anti-western feeling, higher oil prices and an acceleration of Tehran's nuclear programme.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e53ffd5c-b4b...0779e2340.html

ottopilot 08-30-2007 06:40 AM

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The_Jazz 08-30-2007 06:46 AM

The post disappeared because ottopilot went back to it to add a link to that post. It got caught in the automated spam filter but should be back in place now (and has been for a while). There's no mystery, just fallout from us keeping you free from viagra offers.

ottopilot 08-30-2007 06:55 AM

edit

roachboy 08-30-2007 07:50 AM

otto:

your post no. 28 is circular.

it is pretty clear that the trajectory into it (your post) began with "radical islam" and a loose definition of it---and *then* passed through a phase of assembling (otherwise arbitrary) information to support it.
not the other way around.

this is the premise:

Quote:

Radical Islam is on our doorstep, in your hometown, they are patient, and there’s a good chance we’ll be hearing from them soon in our schools, shopping centers, subways, and hospitals
you put it about 3/4 of the way into the post.
so far as i am concerned, the conversation ended there.
that premise is simply an elaborated paranoia. there might be some therapeutic function to be had by allowing paranoia to unspool across a political category (an ideological meme is more accurate a characterisation)
but frankly you seem only to outline the effects of the phrase "radical islam"

when you decide that "radical islam" is one thing, you make it one thing. when you decide that "radical islam" is everywhere and nowhere, you find it everywhere and nowhere.
this is all the post does--it is a demonstration of this procedure.

so such data as you reference or use is unnecessary. your post is about the effects of the category, and that's about it.

in other words, your post argues from projection.

and you choose to adopt the posture of some Prophet, at least rhetorically.

so you basically tell us--those who who read your post---that you advance non-falsifiable claims.
you tell us that your there is no point in debate because there is no debate to be had so far as you are concerned.
and you tell us that we are benighted if we dont agree with you.

so i am having trouble finding motivation to engage.
maybe reconsider your approach.

ottopilot 08-30-2007 10:56 AM

edit

guyy 08-31-2007 08:05 AM

I agree with blatteboy about paranoia and circular arguments. I'd add that if you want to identify "Radicalized Islam" as something monolithic and "coming from the Iranian theocracy and their religious allies", you're going to miss radicalised Islam in places like Gaza or the W. Bank, or Algeria, or the Muslim Brotherhood, which has its roots in Egypt. You'd also be missing the reasons for radicalisation of youth in the West. In sum, your premise of a Vast Iranian Islamofascist Conspiracy doesn't account for much.

If one wishes to make the premise that the invasion of Iraq was really directed at Iran, one has to first cleanse ones mind of the causal chain set in motion by the invasion, not to mention SW Asian regional politics and history. It's not a very productive way to go about things.

Willravel 08-31-2007 08:14 AM

I hope one thing is clear: you're better off getting your information on Muslims from Muslims instead of Western media.
The media would have us believe:
Quote:

Radical Islam is on our doorstep, in your hometown, they are patient, and there’s a good chance we’ll be hearing from them soon in our schools, shopping centers, subways, and hospitals.
Why? Because they want us to fear the boogeyman, and they say who the boogeyman is. They might as well have said "There's a black guy on your back porch!!" or "Your housekeeper, Maria Gonzales, is stealing your jewelry!" It's intended to demonize a race of members of a religion. Muslims are on the whole wonderful people. Radical Islam isn't blind hatred or irrational murder.

ottopilot 08-31-2007 11:54 AM

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roachboy 08-31-2007 12:37 PM

but it is self-evident that the government of iran is not monolithic either.
if you want to talk about iran, then let's talk about iran. there's no need for the Giant Framework---i mean to even get to this yourself, otto, you have had to push through the language of your own post (no. 22 i think)

so on the one hand, we have this term "radical islam"...which i personally think useless, but which we can i suspect agree to disagree about and still shift the discussion.

and i think there is an interesting conversation to be had about iran, too.

i am not sure if starting a different thread would be better or if it would work jsut as well to collectively push reset on this one and redirect it. that means leaving 22 and the discussion it engendered behind at this point and refocussing on iran.



i am busy with other stuff at the moment, so will leave it to you, otto, if you dont mind, to choose how we go about this.

btw: this is just a suggestion--i am not trying to shut down anything, more looking for a bit more frame clarity so we can have a different kind of debate/discussion.

guyy 08-31-2007 01:51 PM

I think part of the reason why we're hearing about a Global Iranian Consipiracy is because of the success of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is quite powerful and a thorn in the side of Israel and the US. Hezbollah managed to drive Israel out once and stared them down again last summer. For this reason (and no doubt others as well) Hezbollah bugs the hell out of Lebanese Christians, Israel, and, by extension, its neocon allies in the Bush regime. Yes, Hezbollah is backed by Iran, but it would be a mistake to assume that it is powerful merely because it has Iranian support. It's powerful because it has the support of a good portion of the Lebanese population. It has that support because it runs hospitals, schools, and all sorts of social programmes for an underserved majority. This is the kind of thing that the folks who run the US state usually have trouble understanding.

Baraka_Guru 08-31-2007 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel
I hope one thing is clear: you're better off getting your information on Muslims from Muslims instead of Western media. [...] they want us to fear the boogeyman, and they say who the boogeyman is.

Yes....the lead-up to the war in Iraq should make for excellent case studies in media classes.

Rekna 09-02-2007 07:10 AM

Fox news is continuing the trend.... and this time the defense department is listening...


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,295529,00.html
Quote:

Report: Pentagon Has 3-Day Plan to Knock Out Iran's Military

The Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert in Sunday’s edition in the Times of London.

Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said.

Debat was speaking at a meeting organized by The National Interest, a conservative foreign policy journal. He told The Sunday Times that the US military had concluded: “Whether you go for pinprick strikes or all-out military action, the reaction from the Iranians will be the same.” It was, he added, a “very legitimate strategic calculus”.

President George Bush intensified the rhetoric against Iran last week, accusing Tehran of putting the Middle East “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust”. He warned that the US and its allies would confront Iran “before it is too late”.

One Washington source said the “temperature was rising” inside the administration. Bush was “sending a message to a number of audiences”, he said to the Iranians and to members of the United Nations security council who are trying to weaken a tough third resolution on sanctions against Iran for flouting a UN ban on uranium enrichment.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week reported “significant” cooperation with Iran over its nuclear program and said that uranium enrichment had slowed. Tehran has promised to answer most questions from the agency by November, but Washington fears it is stalling to prevent further sanctions. Iran continues to maintain it is merely developing civilian nuclear power.

Rekna 09-11-2007 06:32 PM

Apparently we are now drawing up battle plans....

Can Bush go to war with them without authorization? Will people stand up and say no to this neocon regime?

Mojo_PeiPei 09-11-2007 08:54 PM

First off battle plans are already there, they are called contingency(sp) plans... as noted on this forum before we have contingency plans drawn up for every country including Canada.

Bush cannot go to "war" with them, only Congress can approve war. Since Vietnam Congress has reigned in executive power over the military, were they have pretty strong over sight.

So if you are asking if Bush can pull another Iraq in Iran, absolutely not. I'm sure in theory Bush could send some missles, some planes, have some cruisers blow shit up, hell there might even be a window for a possible ground incursion. But without congressional oversight, at most he has a 90 day window, and I sure that I am swinging high saying that.

Charlatan 09-11-2007 10:05 PM

Going to war with Iran would probably top the list of most stupid things the Bush administration has ever done (if they do it).

Bush and co. had the opportunity back in 2002 to actually support the movement away form Radical Fundamentalism in Iran. It would have meant opening up an embassy and normalizing relations with Iran. It would have meant speaking up for the many moderate muslims in Iran who voice their opinions in the newspapers and other media.

At present there are three factions... the moderates, who favour democratic reform and modernization of Iran. The conservatives who are largely made up of business people, who just want things to work smoothly. The fundamentalists, who are at the core of the revolution and represent the "sick" side of Iran...

The numbers of Reformers and Fundamentalists are about equal. All that needs to be done is swing the support of the Conservatives over to the Reformers. Back in 2002, before the current regime was elected, this would have more doable than it is now. But I believe it's still possible.

Iran is a democracy, perhaps in name only but a democracy nonetheless. Instead of talk of the "axis of evil" and rattling of sabres, more work needs to be done to build bridges with Iran.

After all, it was with Iranian support that the US secured the support of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. It was with Iranian support that the US rebuilt the power structures in Kabul. There are moderates in Iran that can turn the tide (even now) but they need support. Normalizing relations with Iran would go a long way to creating that support.

Racnad 09-12-2007 06:46 AM

On "spreading democaracy:"

One of the "reasons of the week" for invading Iraq was to introduce democracy to the Middle East. The irony is that while Iran is not exactly an American-style democracy, it is more democratic most countries in the middle east, including several US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. When visitng Iran for a documentary last year Ted Keppel noted that in the Iranian media, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is ridiculed as much as George Bush is in the American media.

On Iran and nukes:

If we don't want more countries to develop nuclear weapons, the worst thing to do is to go on Iraqi-style invasions. In international relations, nuclear weapons are the equilvelent of a .44 Magnum on your hip that says "don't fuck with us." No country that possesses nuclear weapons was ever been invaded, and countries with no nukes know that well. Would Osama bin Laden have been able to hide in rural Pakistan for 6 years if Pakistan didn't have nukes? Remember what Bush said after 9/11: "We will not make distinctions between terrorists and the countries who harbor them." Well, that doesn't apply to rural Pakistan becuase the biggest danger in the world is not the prospect of North Korea or Iran, it is Pakistan falling into the kind of instability that Iraq is in now. Who knows who would get control of the Pakistan nuclear arsenal???

On Invading Iran:

I recently heard an inteview with former UN ambassador John Bolton. He claimed that there are large numbers of young Iranians who don't liketheir government and would welcome and support Amercian invasion to remove the Iranian governent.

Not only does this argument sound disturbingly familiar, it is comletely absurd. Imagine if a foreign power such as China thought "Look at all the Americans who don't like George W. Bush. If we invaded America and removed George Bush, all the people who don't like Bush would be greatful and supportive of us."

Completely absurd. Young Iranians may very well want change in their country, but like Amercans, we they'd want to do it themselves.

Rekna 09-12-2007 07:06 AM

Mojo, There are lots of laws which state what the President can and can't do legally but it hasn't stopped him before. Bush could simply say he is chasing Al'Queda and doesn't need congress's approval because he already got it for the "war on terror". I really hope he doesn't put us into another war and end up breaking our bank.

Mojo_PeiPei 09-12-2007 08:41 AM

Executive orders can only work off pre-existing law. In the case of the "war on terror" everything Bush has done has been done in the framework of congressional law whether it was the establishment of a new cabinent position, the patriot act, guantamo bay, FISA courts, military action in Afghanistan, etc.

As it stands this country isn't operated by one person/position. I'm stating this hypothetically (and not really attempting to argue the point further so as not to thread jack), but if Bush is doing something illegally it is congress's fault along with the judiciary (not saying he did or didn't) for not checking his power and reigning him in. In regards to military conflict directly there are checks and balances, like in the past with the War Powers resolution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution) which establishes:

-regular consultation with the congress, and if possible consultation preceeding any military action, which would leave the door open for say a reactionary mission, but not a full scale invasion.
-a dossier submitted to the speaker of the house and pres. of the senate 48 hours following action stating necessity/circumstances, constitutional authority in which action was invoked and what legislative law gave made framework, and scope/duration of the mission
-Military action only has a 60 day window (where I quoted 90 earlier) following a written report to congress ^^. The operation can only continue by legislative authority (read declaring war or specific law), if congress is unable to convene as a result of conflict, or a possibly 1-time 30-day extension if "military necessity" requires it. Any concurrent congressional resolution can put an immediate end to action.
(The law in its entirity http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/caseco...rs/33/toc.html)

roachboy 09-12-2007 08:57 AM

the fait accompli approach--the "hello congress, we have attacked iran whaddya gonna do?" way--would require an Event. so while i think mojo's right---it is within the purview of the administration to launch an action without congressional consent---politically such an act would require a pretext. that you can lead vignettes in the press every few weeks that seem geared around preparing the ground for the Event, so far there hasnt been one. the reason for the Event requirement is that the action would have to be pitched as reactive.

i think it's unnecessary because there is near-perfect symmetry between the situations of the bush people and ahmadinejad right now: two politically weak reactionaries propping themselves up politically through exercises in sustained dickwaving in the general direction of the Enemy. but perhaps this symmetry offends the finely tuned aesthetic sensibilities of the few remaining neocons, who may well feel that this kind of situation can only really work when it is not obvious.

Elphaba 09-12-2007 02:59 PM

Mojo, Bush believes that the congressional resolution in support of a preemptive attack on Iraq, applies to *any* source of "terror," that he deems a potential threat to the US. BushCo has been parading the various pretexts that roachboy mentioned for months now. Add to that the recent "accidental" movement of nukes to the Air Force base that is the launch point to the Middle East and we have an interesting alignment of dots to connect.

Military and Intelligence insiders believe that the nuke movements were leaked to the Military Times, which forced the Air Force to come up with the "accident" excuse. Had there actually been an accidental movement of nukes, which is considered virtually impossible, we would never have heard of it from the military. I am further disturbed by the well publicized Air Force grounding of all aircraft on 9/14, to address this accident. It is absurd just on the face of it. The pilots of the planes did not attach nukes to the underside of their wings, and I can't imagine anyone else "checking out" a few nukes from the nuke library. Something seriously stinks in this whole story.

Mojo_PeiPei 09-12-2007 03:23 PM

Why would the nukes re-alignment prove anything? I have no idea how the nuke contengency works, and I'm not assuming you are wrong, but why point to that as a point of escalation? The US has been stepping up its presence in the gulf for months and running drills and war games right off the coast. Also I'm not sure 6 nukes (thats the number right) is much of a threat to the Iranian regime, and at any rate I cannot fathom that any elected official, civilian, or military personnal would think NUKING Iran would be a smart action. Don't get me wrong I'm sure there is some uber-ridiculous blow hard who says its a legitimate option, but Bush is not that stupid (although I have been wrong in the past).

As for what Bush thinks the Iraqi resolution applies to or not, put it all on the congress at this point. The dems need to show that they are not a bunch of politicking gabroni's and at least attempt to reign in executive power if the threat of military action in Iran is so tangible. If anything happens its as much their fault as it is his.

pai mei 09-12-2007 04:09 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6992249.stm
Quote:

Gen David Petraeus, top US commander in Iraq, and US envoy to Baghdad Ryan Crocker both cited evidence of Iranian involvement in attacks on US troops.

Elphaba 09-12-2007 04:18 PM

Mojo, I didn't claim a proof but a data point worthy of contemplation. Bush has refused to take nukes off the table in the war planning associated with Iran. That is another data point. There has been a congressional effort to limit the resolution to Iraq only, but that requires agreement from the executive.

You are correct that nearly everyone considers this an insane move, but Bush and Cheney consider it an option. We have *all* been wrong about Bush's motives in the past, not just you or other conservatives. I'm suspicious because we were so easily manipulated before, and I think that is a necessary position from which to start today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pai mei


This is the necessary event that roachboy refers to. Why is there complete silence about the far greater Saudi involvement in killing our soldiers?

Charlatan 09-12-2007 04:40 PM

Fifteen of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi's citizens and yet there was no talk of attacking Saudi Arabia. Saudi money goes to support terrorism around the region and yet no talk of attacking Saudia Arabia. The country is not even close to a democracy and yet, despite talk of trying to bolster the growth of democracy in the region, there is no talk of attacking Saudia Arabia.

Iran, a democracy (perhaps in name only), with a relatively free-speaking press, who had no citizens involved in 9/11 and with no readily apparent ties to Al Qaeda is not only in the Axis of Evil but slated for invasion.

What it looks like to me is that the US would rather support despots who keep the oil flowing than burgeoning democracies.

The fact is democracies are messier than despots. They don't always go in the direction you want them to. BUT with increased trade and increased diplomacy, investment in education that counters what the mullas spout. There is a more realistic chance of changing the course of the region.

The real thing Bush should have been spending trillions in treasure on was breaking Americas and the Middle East's dependency on oil. So long as the Fundamentalists in Iran have oil money to pay off their cronies and smooth over the inefficiencies of their rule, they will hold onto power.

The same is to be said of places like Libya and Saudi Arabia... thanks to oil money, their despots can afford to buy peace within their boarders.

Mojo_PeiPei 09-12-2007 05:09 PM

Charlatan so much wrong with you post. In a short response

-15 Saudi Nationals do not equate to a problem with the Saudi government or state sponsored terrorism.

Iran Quds unit is a branch of the revolutionary guard and directly associated with the government of IRan, just like Hezbollah a terrorist organization with long standing terrorist involvement against America and the west.

Iran being a democracy is a farce. They were moving towards something a few years ago under Khatami, but since he has been out of power the overlord/guardian council stepped in and has an effective strangle hold on the politics. There is nothing democratic when there are not free and open elections.

As noted in other threads it is not so easy to make a comparison between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The house of Saud has a delicate deal with Sharian Islamofacists whom you so readily speak of, they walk a fine line, and as brought up in other threads I would rather have the House of Saud in power then another hardline Muslim theocratic regime.

Not bringing up direct figures, but America has little dependence on Middle Eastern Oil, in fact we only get some 20-25% of our oil from the region.

Willravel 09-12-2007 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei
-15 Saudi Nationals do not equate to a problem with the Saudi government or state sponsored terrorism.

Based on this statement, I find your understanding of Saudi involvement in terrorism lacking.

Waaay back in 2004, former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee Bob Graham published a book called "Intelligence Matters: The CIA, the FBIA, Saudi Arabia, and the Failure of America's War on Terror" where he plainly states that the Bush white house deliberately blocked investigations into the Saudi Arabian government and royal families. One such example is in the report issued by a joint House-Senate intelligence committee back in 2002 in which 27 pages were blacked out by the white house. In those pages, Saudi links to 9/11 were outlined, backed by credible intelligence. Republican Senator Richard Shelby confirmed the allegations.

All of this came out way back during (and by) the Kerry campaign.
http://www.16beavergroup.org/mtarchi...ves/001265.php

Mojo_PeiPei 09-12-2007 06:49 PM

I am not refuting the issue of Saudi ties to terrorism, I just think trying to use the fact that 15 hijackers being of Saudi origin equates to its own issue and in so far as 9/11 and governmental support is moot.

If you knew anything about OBL and Al Qaeda you would know the roots of his fatwa. Remember desert storm? Osama went to the Saud family and offered to handle the situation with Iraq, much the same way he did with Afghanistan, they had the Americans do it. What happened then? OBL actively worked to topple the Saudi regime and was expelled. I think it is a safe bet that as far as state sponsored terrorism is concerned OBL and Al Qaeda have no ties with the Saudi government.

Now, it is a rich kingdom with a lot of rich mullahs who don't like the west, but that is an issue of the theocratic-societal underpinnings in my book and less an issue of the government. At the same time I could bring in the whole Israeli issue and Saudi Arabia, but that is a whole nother can o' worms.

Willravel 09-12-2007 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei
I am not refuting the issue of Saudi ties to terrorism, I just think trying to use the fact that 15 hijackers being of Saudi origin equates to its own issue and in so far as 9/11 and governmental support is moot.

Not necessarily. When you combine that fact with the fact that Saudis have been behind many, many terrorist attacks on US and ally targets... a pattern forms. It's clear, from these alone, that Saudi Arabia is the source of most "terrorists" (violent muslim extremists). That's hardly a moot point.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei
If you knew anything about OBL and Al Qaeda you would know the roots of his fatwa. Remember desert storm? Osama went to the [Saudi] family and offered to handle the situation with Iraq, much the same way he did with Afghanistan, they had the Americans do it. What happened then? OBL actively worked to topple the Saudi regime and was expelled. I think it is a safe bet that as far as state sponsored terrorism is concerned OBL and Al Qaeda have no ties with the Saudi government.

So because one terrorist that worked for the Saudis for over a decade finally turns on them Saudi Arabia has no ties to terrorism? That makes absolutely no sense. Besides that, as I said above, the Saudi government and royal families helped to finance 9/11 according to official intelligence reports that were hidden by the Bush administration. Why? Simple. The Bush family and Saudis have long-standing ties through oil, and the financing of 9/11 was tied in with friends of the Bush family. These are top ranking government officials and royalty.

Racnad 09-13-2007 07:19 AM

In trying to associate Iraq to 9/11 Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc. have pointed out that prior to 9/11 that some members of Al Quada did visit Iraq or resided in Iraq, or met with Iraqi officials (as did Rumsfeld in that famous photograph). If that is the standard for estanblishing responsibility, then you can make a much stronger case of Saudi Arabia being reponsible for 911. (By that standard you can also say the US was involved because the hijackers spend a lot of time in the US attending flight school - I'm sure some of the 911Truth people are arguing that).

Not only were most of the hikjackers Saudi, Osama bin Laden is as well, and he has many relatives who are prominent in Saudi society. I don't beleive that the governemnt was involved in anyway, but many prominent Saudis are sympathetic to Al Quada.

To understand Iran you have to look at Iranian history for the past 50 years. Following WWII, Iran had a democratically elected leader who was overthrown by the UK/US for starting to nationalize the oil industry. The Shaw was installed, who ran the country as dictatorship using a Secret Police.

But the Shaw played ball with the oil companies, and was also anti-Soviet, firmly on the US side throughout the cold war. (An Iran friendly to the Soviet Union would have given the Soviets access to warm water port - the Persian Gulf - and it was VERY important to the US and NATO that this NOT happen.

In 1980, the show was overtthrown, and the US embassy in Terhan was invaded and occupied, with 50 US citizens were held as hostages. In international relations, this is a HUGE sin, equivelent to an invasion.

The current state of affairs between the US and Iran is a result of that bad blood. Iran is mad at the US for backing the Shaw's dictatorship and secret police, and the US is still sore about the violation of the US embassy (the generation of Cheney/Rumsfeld were working in governement at that time and remember it well).

Americans should also keep in mind that civilization existed in Iran/Persia when Europeans were jusy tribes of hunter/gatherers. The Iranians are very aware and proud of the their cultural history, and the don't want to play second fiddle to anyone. The idea that young Iranians would welcome a foreign invasion to remove their governement is abasurd as the notion that Amercans who don't like Bush would welcome a foreign invasion to remove Bush. If you think Iraq is bad, a US war with Iran would be much, much worse.

The solution would be for the US and Iraq to agree that the past is past and work together to move forward.

Elphaba 09-13-2007 04:19 PM

Fox News isn't the only one selling a war with Iran. Alexis Debat, a recently fired "consultant" for ABC news has been inventing his "facts." This is late breaking news, but google his name with ABC to get what is known so far.

one google link

Quote:

UPDATED (again): The disgraced ABC consultant and the push for war in Iran

There's a huge new media scandal breaking this morning, and the headline so far -- that a much-used consultant to ABC News published a phony interview with Barak Obama -- may well be the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The news about now ex-ABC consultant Alexis Debat is just dribbling out, but I'm surprised people haven't been connecting the dots. ...snip

Simply put, Debat -- a former French defense official who now works at the (no, you can't make these things up) Nixon Center -- has also been a leading source in pounding the drumbeat for war in Iran, and directly linked to some bizarre stories -- reported on ABC's widely watched news shows, and nowhere else -- that either ratcheted up fears of terrorism or that could have stoked new tensions between Washington and Tehran. ...snip

The report came in the Rupert Murdoch-owned Times of London, right after rumors swept through Washington that aides to Vice President Dick Cheney were planning to use friendly news outlets -- including several others owned by Murdoch -- to whip up popular opinion for attacking Iran.

This story appeared in Murdoch's Times on Sept. 2, 2007:

"THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.

Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said.
...snip

If you look at the stories on which ABC News has acknowledged Debat's work, many of the reports came from left field. Do you remember this report from June, on which ABC has apparently acknowledged Debat was a consultant?

"Large teams of newly trained suicide bombers are being sent to the United States and Europe, according to evidence contained on a new videotape obtained by the Blotter on ABCNews.com.

Teams assigned to carry out attacks in the United States, Canada, Great Britain and Germany were introduced at an al Qaeda/Taliban training camp graduation ceremony held June 9.

A Pakistani journalist was invited to attend and take pictures as some 300 recruits, including boys as young as 12, were supposedly sent off on their suicide missions."


How did ABC get this alarmist video -- at a time when government officials in Washington seemed to be amping up fears over new terrorist attacks at home, going into the congressional debate over reauthorizing the government's eavesdropping program and maintaining troop levels in Iraq? Did Debat play any role?

Ross acknowleged yesterday that Debat was a source on this controversial report regarding U.S. efforts in Iran, back in April:

"A Pakistani tribal militant group responsible for a series of deadly guerrilla raids inside Iran has been secretly encouraged and advised by American officials since 2005, U.S. and Pakistani intelligence sources tell ABC News.
The group, called Jundullah, is made up of members of the Baluchi tribe and operates out of the Baluchistan province in Pakistan, just across the border from Iran.

It has taken responsibility for the deaths and kidnappings of more than a dozen Iranian soldiers and officials."


Debat has also reportly helped ABC analyze terrorism inside Saudi Arabia, and provided his "expert" commentary and information on stories ranging from the 2005 London bombings to the trial of his fellow Frenchman, al-Qaeda member Zacarias Moussaoui. His work should cause a re-examination of all of ABC News' investigative reporting on both terrorism and Iran over the last couple of years, because -- wittingly or unwittingly -- no other network has better served the Bush agenda in the Middle East. ...snip
He is either a self-serving media whore, or our new Judith Miller. Either way, we are once again being sold a bill of goods and this time it is Iran.

Willravel 09-13-2007 04:43 PM

Excellent article, Elphaba.

Elphaba 09-13-2007 04:53 PM

Thank you, but where is our host? I am a poor substitute for digging up important news. I miss him.

Willravel 09-24-2007 02:52 PM

I just got through an interesting article from the Times that took a look at the "Wipe Israel off the map" comment by Iranian President Ahmadinejad. It's a good read, and I suggest people give it a look.
Quote:

Just How Far Did They Go, Those Words Against Israel?

By ETHAN BRONNER
Published: June 11, 2006

EVER since he spoke at an anti-Zionism conference in Tehran last October, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran has been known for one statement above all. As translated by news agencies at the time, it was that Israel "should be wiped off the map." Iran's nuclear program and sponsorship of militant Muslim groups are rarely mentioned without reference to the infamous map remark.

Here, for example, is R. Nicholas Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, recently: "Given the radical nature of Iran under Ahmadinejad and its stated wish to wipe Israel off the map of the world, it is entirely unconvincing that we could or should live with a nuclear Iran."

But is that what Mr. Ahmadinejad said? And if so, was it a threat of war? For months, a debate among Iran specialists over both questions has been intensifying. It starts as a dispute over translating Persian but quickly turns on whether the United States (with help from Israel) is doing to Iran what some believe it did to Iraq — building a case for military action predicated on a faulty premise.

"Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to wipe Israel off the map because no such idiom exists in Persian," remarked Juan Cole, a Middle East specialist at the University of Michigan and critic of American policy who has argued that the Iranian president was misquoted. "He did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse." Since Iran has not "attacked another country aggressively for over a century," he said in an e-mail exchange, "I smell the whiff of war propaganda."

Jonathan Steele, a columnist for the left-leaning Guardian newspaper in London, recently laid out the case this way: "The Iranian president was quoting an ancient statement by Iran's first Islamist leader, the late Ayatollah Khomeini, that 'this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time,' just as the Shah's regime in Iran had vanished. He was not making a military threat. He was calling for an end to the occupation of Jerusalem at some point in the future. The 'page of time' phrase suggests he did not expect it to happen soon."

Mr. Steele added that neither Khomeini nor Mr. Ahmadinejad suggested that Israel's "vanishing" was imminent or that Iran would be involved in bringing it about. "But the propaganda damage was done," he wrote, "and Western hawks bracket the Iranian president with Hitler as though he wants to exterminate Jews."

If Mr. Steele and Mr. Cole are right, not one word of the quotation — Israel should be wiped off the map — is accurate.

But translators in Tehran who work for the president's office and the foreign ministry disagree with them. All official translations of Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement, including a description of it on his Web site (www.president.ir/eng/), refer to wiping Israel away. Sohrab Mahdavi, one of Iran's most prominent translators, and Siamak Namazi, managing director of a Tehran consulting firm, who is bilingual, both say "wipe off" or "wipe away" is more accurate than "vanish" because the Persian verb is active and transitive.

The second translation issue concerns the word "map." Khomeini's words were abstract: "Sahneh roozgar." Sahneh means scene or stage, and roozgar means time. The phrase was widely interpreted as "map," and for years, no one objected. In October, when Mr. Ahmadinejad quoted Khomeini, he actually misquoted him, saying not "Sahneh roozgar" but "Safheh roozgar," meaning pages of time or history. No one noticed the change, and news agencies used the word "map" again.

Ahmad Zeidabadi, a professor of political science in Tehran whose specialty is Iran-Israel relations, explained: "It seems that in the early days of the revolution the word 'map' was used because it appeared to be the best meaningful translation for what he said. The words 'sahneh roozgar' are metaphorical and do not refer to anything specific. Maybe it was interpreted as 'book of countries,' and the closest thing to that was a map. Since then, we have often heard 'Israel bayad az naghshe jographya mahv gardad' — Israel must be wiped off the geographical map. Hard-liners have used it in their speeches."

The final translation issue is Mr. Ahmadinejad's use of "occupying regime of Jerusalem" rather than "Israel."

To some analysts, this means he is calling for regime change, not war, and therefore it need not be regarded as a call for military action. Professor Cole, for example, says: "I am entirely aware that Ahmadinejad is hostile to Israel. The question is whether his intentions and capabilities would lead to a military attack, and whether therefore pre-emptive warfare is prescribed. I am saying no, and the boring philology is part of the reason for the no."

But to others, "occupying regime" signals more than opposition to a certain government; the phrase indicates the depth of the Iranian president's rejection of a Jewish state in the Middle East because he refuses even to utter the name Israel. He has said that the Palestinian issue "does not lend itself to a partial territorial solution" and has called Israel "a stain" on Islam that must be erased. By contrast, Mr. Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, said that if the Palestinians accepted Israel's existence, Iran would go along.

When combined with Iran's longstanding support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah of Lebanon, two groups that have killed numerous Israelis, and Mr. Ahmadinejad's refusal to acknowledge the Holocaust, it is hard to argue that, from Israel's point of view, Mr. Ahmadinejad poses no threat. Still, it is true that he has never specifically threatened war against Israel.

So did Iran's president call for Israel to be wiped off the map? It certainly seems so. Did that amount to a call for war? That remains an open question.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/we...rssnyt&emc=rss

I had suspected that the comment was too convenient from the beginning. The current US administration is scratching for any little tidbit to excuse attacking Iran, and Ahmadinejad comes out and says "How does everyone feel about nuking Israel?". No way, jose. Obviously, Iran and Israel aren't the best of friends, as a matter of fact I suspect that the word 'hate' wouldn't be out of place when describing their mutual feelings, but attacking Israel, a country already armed with nuclear weapons and the largest military in the ME is tantamount to suicide even leaving alone the fact that Bush is trying to make Iran the new Iraq.

Thoughts?

Elphaba 09-24-2007 04:05 PM

I expressed an opinion here and another politics forum a year or so ago that Ahmadinejad's public statements have been conveniently mistranslated for our consumption. If you really want to rile the majority of American's, inferring the intention of a literal attack against Israel is the way to go. You can be certain that I was accused of being far worse than a "looney liberal" for the opinion.

Another thought I expressed was that his discourse on the holocaust was also not to be taken literally, but as rhetorical device based upon logical principals. IF, the holocaust occurred (which of course, it did), THEN those that took the lives and property of the European Jews must return that property to the survivors. Ergo, if the holocaust occurred, why were the European Jews given the property of the Palestinians? That question is the fundamental basis of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in the Middle East and has earned the "West" so many enemies within the region.

highthief 09-26-2007 08:07 AM

It's funny - all the wingnuts protesting Ahmadinejad's visit to the US have now strengthened the guy's faltering position in Iran. The Iranian people - who largely don't care for the guy - are now forced into backing him given the howls over both Ahmadinejad personally and Iran in general being broadcast by US and International media.

Plan9 09-26-2007 08:14 AM

Instead of Columbia Uni... they should have sent his ass down to Fort Bragg to speak to the 82nd.

Just so he can piss off the right audience before our next fearless leader sends us off to do something stupid in the desert. Again.

ottopilot 09-26-2007 11:19 AM

edit

Rekna 12-05-2007 06:27 PM

I wonder if the new NIE will change foxnew's tune.

Of course Bolton just went on fox news demanding hearings into the intelligences agencies for being politicized contrary to the president...

inBOIL 12-05-2007 09:51 PM

It seem like this saber-rattling on Bush's part is largely part of a political ploy by the Republican party. He'll talk tough about Iran, and then dick around until the election, not doing anything about it. If the Democrats win the election and things in Iran eventually get better, the Republicans can claim it as the result of Bush's early pressure. If things get worse, it can be blamed on the Democrats' inaction (or actions, whichever the case may be). If a Republican wins the election, they can deal with Iran afterward. This isn't the best way to handle the situation, even from a Republicans-must win-at-any-cost viewpoint, but it is consistent with the kind of rhetoric they've been using the past 8 years.

host 12-06-2007 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ottopilot
Some believe that Iranian president Ahmadinejad intends to continue provoking the west into a series of compounding confrontations by proxy and direct action. Whether it's intended or not, main-stream media has not picked up on how Ahmadinejad begins most of his commentary (example: at Columbia and the UN) by evoking the prophecy of the "12th Imam"..


..Some believe that the greater importance of Iraq is because of it's religious significance regarding the location of the new Caliphate. Many Muslims do not believe in these prophecies, but the belief of the 12er's is to supposedly usher in the new era of Islam. These are people willing to become martyrs for their beliefs at all cost... a belief or mindset that many assume too hard for Westerners to comprehend.

Just some other things to consider..

FYI (if interested) here's some more background regarding how Iran is prepping their population for "Mahdi Miracles".   click to show 

ottopilot, I know your post is more than two months old, but I hadn't read it before today. (I was "gone fishing", away from TFP, until more recently.) Here are several observations about your post:

You display a description of "twelvers", you provide no link..
You display a teaser to a hidden "article", clicking on it opens a piece attritbute to "Worldnet Daily", and you provide no link...

Other readers, and you, if you're open to it, should be aware that the material in the Worldnet Daily article is authored by the founder and publisher of worldnet daily, Joseph Farah:

This is the link to your posted (hidden) article. See the bottom part, ommitted along with the link, in your cut & paste:
Quote:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=53964
Iran prepares people for 'messiah miracles'
Government broadcasts series on imminent appearance of apocalyptic Islamic 'Mahdi'
Posted: January 27, 2007

<h3>Related special offers:

Keep up to date on messianic activities in Iran by subscribing to Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin. </h3>
Here is Joseph Farah, "in action", days before the 2004 presidential election:
Quote:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=41169

<img src="http://www.worldnetdaily.com/images/section.BTL.gif">
Questioning Kerry's patriotism
Posted: October 29, 2004
1:00 a.m. Eastern

It's time to stop pussyfooting around with John Kerry.

This guy is a malapropism away from the presidency.

..He became, arguably, the most important human asset in the public relations arsenal of the Vietnamese Communists..

..<h3>They mean the man so close to becoming commander in chief of the armed forces of the United States is the man who betrayed those forces in 1971 – the man who betrayed his comrades in arms, the man who betrayed his country.

It's time to call a spade a spade. Kerry is a traitor. What he did was treason. Period. End of story.</h3>...

America's mistake was not locking this guy up in the stockades in 1971 and throwing away the key...

...May God open America's eyes next Tuesday.
<h3>Here is Farah's original references to the details in your hidden article, published a year earlier on his subscription website, complete with his hyped claim of actually translating the DVD of Iranian president Ahmadinejad:</h3>
Quote:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=48225
FROM JOSEPH FARAH'S G2 BULLETIN
Iran leader's messianic end-times mission
Ahmadinejad raises concerns with mystical visions
Posted: January 6, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern

Editor's note: This story is adapted from the latest issue of Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, the weekly, online, premium intelligence newsletter published by the founder of WND. Annual subscriptions to G2 Bulletin have been cut in half to just $99...

<h3>....According to a transcript of his comments, obtained and translated by Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin</h3>, Ahmadinejad wasn't the only one who noticed the unearthly light. One of his aides brought it to his attention.

The Iranian president recalled being told about it by one of his delegation: "When you began with the words ‘in the name of Allah,' I saw a light coming, surrounding you and protecting you to the end."

Ahmadinejad agreed that he sensed the same thing.

"On the last day when I was speaking, one of our group told me that when I started to say 'Bismillah Muhammad,' he saw a green light come from around me, and I was placed inside this aura," he says. "I felt it myself. I felt that the atmosphere suddenly changed, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, all the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they didn't move an eyelid, I'm not exaggerating. They were looking as if a hand was holding them there, and had just opened their eyes – Alhamdulillah!" ...
<h3>Here is the same information Farah charged a subscritpion fee to read, freely available a month earlier, with a verbatim translation, on UK channel 4 and days later on PBS. A much more balanced view of Iran is provided by channel 4's Lindsey Hilsum, the apparent source of Joseph Farah's subscription article, and your hidden article, dontcha think?</h3>
Quote:

http://www.channel4.com/news/article...t%20day/159515

International Politics
Preparing for judgement day

Last Modified: 05 Dec 2005
By: Lindsey Hilsum

Mocked for his ugliness, stupidity and smelly socks, President Ahmadinejad is feared for his religious common touch, writes Lindsey Hilsum.


....In one of his first acts after being elected in June, Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, allocated £12m of government funds to enlarge the shrine and mosque. Much to the alarm of those who say Iran is modernising, he frequently refers to the Mahdi, even mentioning him in his speech to the UN General Assembly in September. Asked late last month how Iranians should prepare for the Mahdi, he replied: "They must be pure and devout."

On other occasions, he has talked of reorienting the country's policies to be ready for judgement day, the equivalent of Tony Blair telling Britons to prepare for Christ's second coming.

'A green light around me'

A DVD doing the rounds in exile circles and in Tehran reveals just how mystical Iran's new president is. The scene appears to have been filmed openly, shortly after Ahmadinejad returned from the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, but has not been publicly released.

The president is seen entering a house with Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, a senior conservative figure in Qom...

.."On the last day when I was speaking, one of our group told me that when I started to say 'Bismillah Muhammad', he saw a green light come from around me, and I was placed inside this aura," he says. "I felt it myself. I felt that the atmosphere suddenly changed, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, all the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they didn't move an eyelid, I'm not exaggerating. They were looking as if a hand was holding them there, and had just opened their eyes - Alhamdulillah!"
Iranian holds up a copy of the Koran.

Some are beginning to worry that the president's religiosity, combined with his extreme statements - notably his declaration that Israel should be "wiped off the face of the earth" - are damaging the country. The unspoken fear is that the president is not concerned about international turmoil, because he believes these are the End Times which herald the return of the Mahdi.

"Such talk is for internal consumption," says Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice-president. "But I am worried by the use of these religious slogans." Ayatollah Yusef Saanei, a liberal clergyman in Qom, said: "We should rule the country according to Islamic law, but we should not use religious ideas in politics. Even Ayatollah Khomeini did not believe we should do this."

The previous reformist government trod a fine line, defying western objections to Iran's nuclear programme while simultaneously giving the impression of opening up and becoming more tolerant. In three months, the new president has abandoned subtle diplomacy, sacking reformist ambassadors and replacing practised nuclear negotiators with ideologues.

The men he has nominated as ministers are seen by most Iranian politicians as inexperienced - so far, parliament has rejected three of his nominees for the post of oil minister, leaving the key ministry rudderless...
Quote:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middl...iran_12-9.html
STRONG WORDS FROM IRAN


December 9, 2005



Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinajad has recently drawn international ire by suggesting that the Holocaust never happened and Israel be moved to Europe. This Independent Television News report details the deep influence of Islam on the leader's ruling style and Islam's general impact on politics in Iran.



realaudio

LINDSEY HILSUM: Jamkaran, the shrine to the 12th imam, the Mahdi. The faithful write their prayers. He is their most revered saint, their only hope. One day, they believe, he'll return to Earth through the well which lies under the postbox.

In the meantime, they mail him their wishes. One woman prays the Mahdi will cure her son's opium addiction. In the men's section, more prayers -- a terminally ill child, a daughter still unmarried, unemployment, all the problems of poverty.

Many mullahs say the well and postbox are mere superstition, but thousands of Iranians come to the Jamkaran shrine every Tuesday evening. They're looking for a sign that the Mahdi will return soon.

Now, it seems the Mahdi has become political. Iran's new president says he's a devotee of the 12th imam and of Jamkaran.

One of the first things Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did on becoming president was to allocate $17 million to this shrine to the 12th imam, the Mahdi. All Shias believe that one day the Mahdi will return, but some Iranians are beginning to worry that their new president is reorienting the country's politics towards that day.

Darkness falls and still the pilgrims come. They're warding off the evil eye. For eight years, Iran was run by reformists who talked of democracy and disparaged such religiosity, but the new president talks the language of the people.

Some are keen to praise him, provided they don't have to look a woman journalist in the eye.

MAN (Translated): Mr. Ahmadinejad is the only president in 28 years who came with a slogan of bringing justice, saying that he is one of us, cut from the same cloth. He proudly invokes the name of God the merciful, and after that he always prays for the coming of the Mahdi.

LINDSEY HILSUM: He repeated that prayer when he addressed the U.N. General assembly last September, calling on God to hasten the coming of the Mahdi.

A DVD circulating secretly in Tehran and on the Internet shows the president a few days later entering a house with a senior conservative ayatollah...

....<h3>LINDSEY HILSUM: The reformists are horrified that this is the image of Iran being seen around the world.</h3>

REZA KHATAMI, Opposition Leader: In the last eight years, the reformists tried to give a very clear sign to the world that Islam in Iran is not so fanatic. And I think the new government, they want to go back three decades -- and they not only want to go back themselves; they want to pull back the country three decades, so everybody now is worried about the future.

LINDSEY HILSUM: Happy landings. It's the annual day of the Basiij, a paramilitary organization meant to protect the country. Three decades ago, they were the vanguard of the Islamic revolution. Today, they're showing off their skills --

GROUP: Allah akbar!

LINDSEY HILSUM: -- and their air force. This is Mr. Ahmadinejad's power base, his enforcers amongst the population, although it looks as if not everyone's in step.

We caught up with the president and asked what he meant when he said Iranians should prepare for the return of the Mahdi. The reply: "They must be pure and devout."

Mr. Ahmadinejad shocked western governments when he said Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth. He used Basiij Day to send another hard-line message to Europe and America, the countries trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology.

PRESIDENT MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD (Translated): You whose arsenals are full of nuclear weapons, you who have used nuclear weapons this century against defenseless people and nations, you who used depleted uranium in the Iraq war, you whose arsenals are full of chemical and biological weapons, who are you to come out and say that you're suspicious of Iran's nuclear program?

LINDSEY HILSUM: A human chain symbolically protecting the country. The reformists fear the president's harsh words will lead to Iran being called up in front of the U.N. Security Council on suspicion of making a nuclear weapon.

MOHAMED ALI ABTAHI (Translated): We want nuclear technology to enhance Iran's standing in the world, but if that means we will have to sacrifice the power we already have because of sanctions or even more extreme measures against us, then in reality we will have gained the technology, but we won't have increased our power and influence at all.

LINDSEY HILSUM: The Bright Future Institute at Qom is devoted to the study of the Mahdi and other Messianic cults, they catalogue the literature and answer questions from the public sent in by e-mail, phone or letter.

The most common query is: How will we know that the Mahdi is about to return?

The children's books they design show what a wonderful world it will be afterwards. But just like fundamentalist Christians, Shias believe the messiah's second coming about be heralded by an apocalypse, war and chaos; they don't say it publicly but some Iranians worry that their new president has no fear of international turmoil, may think it's just a sign from God.
What was your point, ottopilot? Iranian president Ahmadinejad is a politician, and his "base" is deeply religious.

We, as a nation, have so much in common with the religiosity of the people of Iran, I don't know what your point is:
Quote:

http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101020701/story.html
Apocalypse Now
Posted Sunday, June 23, 2002; 2:31 a.m. EST

36% of Americans believe that the Bible is the word of God and is to be taken literally
— TIME/CNN Poll

A TIME/CNN poll finds that more than one-third of Americans say they are paying more attention now to how the news might relate to the end of the world, and have talked about what the Bible has to say on the subject. <b>Fully 59% say they believe the events in Revelation are going to come true,<b> and nearly one-quarter think the Bible predicted the Sept. 11 attack....
Quote:

http://www.johnstoncenter.unc.edu/ev...rrow_moyer.htm
There Is No Tomorrow
By Bill Moyers
The Star Tribune
Sunday 30 January 2005

One of the biggest changes in politics in my lifetime is that the delusional is no longer marginal. It has come in from the fringe, to sit in the seat of power in the Oval Office and in Congress...

... I've reported on these people, following some of them from Texas to the West Bank. They are sincere, serious and polite as they tell you they feel called to help bring the rapture on as fulfillment of biblical prophecy. That is why they have declared solidarity with Israel and the Jewish settlements and backed up their support with money and volunteers. That is why the invasion of Iraq for them was a warm-up act, predicted in the Book of Revelations, where four angels "which are bound in the great river Euphrates will be released to slay the third part of man." For them a war with Islam in the Middle East is something to be welcomed - an essential conflagration on the road to redemption. The rapture index - "the prophetic speedometer of end-time activity" - now stands at 153.......

...So what does this mean for public policy and the environment? As Glenn Scherer reports in the online environmental journal Grist, millions of Christian fundamentalists believe that environmental destruction is not only to be disregarded but hastened as a sign of the coming apocalypse.

We're not talking about a handful of fringe lawmakers who hold or are beholden to these beliefs. Nearly half of the members of Congress are backed by the religious right. Forty-five senators and 186 members of the 108th Congress earned 80 to 100 percent approval ratings from the three most influential Christian-right advocacy groups. They include Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Assistant Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Conference Chair Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Policy Chair Jon Kyl of Arizona, House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Whip Roy Blunt. The only Democrat to score 100 percent with the Christian Coalition was Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, who before his recent retirement quoted from the biblical Book of Amos on the Senate floor: "The days will come, sayeth the Lord God, that I will send a famine in the land." He seemed to relish the thought...
<b>Consider that the following is a news article, not an "op-ed" piece.</b> It seems to explain how the U.S. and Israel came to be in the positions that they are today in the middle east, vs. the current violence in Iraq, Gaza, and in Lebanon. Consider John Bolton's current responsibilities;
in the context of his recess appointment by Mr. Bush to UN ambassador, after he failed to win confirmation to the that position, by the republican controlled senate, and Bolton's participation in Richard Perle's 1996 "study group", described below, that issued a report that stated:
Quote:

Israel should insist on Arab recognition of its claim to the <b>biblical land of Israel,</b> the 1996 report suggested, and should "focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq."
Quote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...45652-2003Feb8
Bush and Sharon Nearly Identical On Mideast Policy

By Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 9, 2003; Page A01


Running for reelection last month, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel repeatedly boasted of the "deep friendship" he has built with the Bush administration -- "a special closeness,"....

Sharon was describing what his American supporters call the closest relationship in decades, perhaps ever, between a U.S. president and an Israeli government. "This is the best administration for Israel since Harry Truman [who first recognized an independent Israel]," <b>said Thomas Neumann, executive director of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs,</b> a think tank that promotes strategic cooperation with Israel as vital to U.S. security interests.
<h3>host inserts: Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs= JINSA</h3>

For the first time, a U.S. administration and a Likud government in Israel are pursuing nearly identical policies. Earlier U.S. administrations, from Jimmy Carter's through Bill Clinton's, held Likud and Sharon at arm's length, distancing the United States from Likud's traditionally tough approach to the Palestinians. But today, as Neumann noted, Israel and the United States share a common view on terrorism, peace with the Palestinians, war with Iraq and more. Neumann and others said this change was made possible by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and their aftermath.

The Bush administration's alignment with Sharon delights many of its strongest supporters, especially evangelical Christians, and a large part of organized American Jewry, according to leaders in both groups, who argue that Palestinian terrorism pushed Bush to his new stance. <b>But it has led to a freeze on diplomacy in the region that is criticized by Arab countries and their allies, and by many past and current officials who have participated in the long-running, never-conclusive Middle East "peace process."</b>....

...The turning point came last June, when Bush embraced Sharon's view of the Palestinians and made Yasser Arafat's removal as leader of the Palestinian Authority a condition of future diplomacy. That was "a clear shift in policy," Kenneth R. Weinstein, director of the Washington office of the Hudson Institute, a conservative supporter of Israel and Likud. The June speech was "a departure point," agreed Ralph Reed, chairman of the Georgia Republican Party and former director of the Christian Coalition.

Since then, U.S. policy has been in step with Sharon's. The peace process is "quiescent," said retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, Bush's special envoy to the region. "I've kind of gone dormant," he added. In December Bush appointed an articulate, hard-line critic of the traditional peace process, Elliott Abrams, director of Mideast affairs for the National Security Council.

"The Likudniks are really in charge now," said a senior government official, using a Yiddish term for supporters of Sharon's political party. Neumann agreed that Abrams's appointment was symbolically important, not least because Abrams's views were shared by his boss, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, by Vice President Cheney and by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. "It's a strong lineup," he said.

Abrams is a former assistant secretary of state in the Reagan administration who was convicted on two counts of lying to Congress in the Iran-contra scandal, then pardoned by President George H.W. Bush. In October 2000, Abrams wrote: "The Palestinian leadership does not want peace with Israel, and there will be no peace."

Said Meyrav Wurmser of the Hudson Institute, who shares his outlook: "Elliott's appointment is a signal that the hard-liners in the administration are playing a more central role in shaping policy." She added that "the hard-liners are a very unique group. The hawks in the administration are in fact people who are the biggest advocates of democracy and freedom in the Middle East." She was referring to the idea that promoting democracy is the best way to assure Israel's security, because democratic countries are less likely to attack a neighbor than dictatorships. Adherents of this view have argued that creating a democratic Palestine and a democratic Iraq could have a positive impact on the entire region.

Some Middle East hands who disagree with these supporters of Israel refer to them as "a cabal," in the words of one former official. Members of the group do not hide their friendships and connections, or their loyalty to strong positions in support of Israel and Likud.

One of Abrams's mentors, Richard Perle, chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, led a study group that proposed to Binyamin Netanyahu, a Likud prime minister of Israel from 1996 to 1999, that he abandon the Oslo peace accords negotiated in 1993 and reject the basis for them -- the idea of trading "land for peace.<h3>" Israel should insist on Arab recognition of its claim to the biblical land of Israel, the 1996 report suggested, and should "focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq."</h3>

<b>Besides Perle, the study group included David Wurmser, now a special assistant to Undersecretary of State John R. Bolton, and Douglas J. Feith,</b> now undersecretary of defense for policy. Feith has written prolifically on Israeli-Arab issues for years, arguing that Israel has as legitimate a claim to the West Bank territories seized after the Six Day War as it has to the land that was part of the U.N.-mandated Israel created in 1948. Perle, Feith and Abrams all declined to be interviewed for this article.

Rumsfeld echoed the Perle group's analysis in a little-noted comment to Pentagon employees last August about "the so-called occupied territories." <b>Rumsfeld said: "There was a war [in 1967], Israel urged neighboring countries not to get involved . . . they all jumped in, and they lost a lot of real estate to Israel because Israel prevailed in that conflict. In the intervening period, they've made some settlements in some parts of the so-called occupied area, which was the result of a war, which they won."............</b>

......The State Department pressed for continued negotiations and pressure on Sharon to limit the scope of his military response to Palestinian suicide bombers, while the Pentagon and <b>the vice president's office favored more encouragement for the Israelis, and less concern for a peace process</b> which, they said, was going nowhere anyhow........

But the administration did make a series of statements and gestures intended to restrain Sharon's response to suicide bombings, and to reassert the traditional U.S. policy that Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank had to cease. At the urging of Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Bush publicly embraced the idea of a Palestinian state.

An internal debate split the administration and invited the lobbying of think tanks, Jewish organizations, evangelical Christians and others who take a fierce interest in the Middle East. While some groups including Americans for Peace Now lined up against Sharon's tough policies and in favor of negotiations, most of the organizations and individuals who lobbied on these issues embraced a harder line, and supported Sharon. Over the past dozen years or more, supporters of Sharon's Likud Party have moved into leadership roles in most of the American Jewish organizations that provide financial and political support for Israel.

Friends of Israel in Congress also lined up with Sharon. <h3>In November 2001, 89 of 100 senators signed a letter to Bush asking the administration not to try to restrain Israel</h3> from using "all [its] strength and might" in response to Palestinian suicide bombings. Signers said they wanted to persuade Bush to prevent Secretary of State Colin L. Powell from pressuring Sharon......

....A series of episodes in which Bush felt Arafat behaved inappropriately further soured the relationship. Bush repeatedly refused to meet with Arafat, who had met with Clinton 21 times. And month after month, U.S. officials blamed Arafat for failing to prevent the suicide bombings in Israel.

After the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Sharon began immediately to argue that Israel and the United States were fighting the same enemy, international terrorism. Over the months that followed -- months marked by escalating violence in Israel and the West Bank -- Bush and Sharon grew closer, personally and politically. By the end of last year the two had met seven times and talked on many more occasions by telephone (with Sharon doing nearly all the talking, Israeli officials said). Said a senior official of the first Bush administration who is critical of this one: "Sharon played the president like a violin: 'I'm fighting your war, terrorism is terrorism,' and so on. Sharon did a masterful job."

Rabbi Yechiel Eckstein, a leading figure in Jewish-Evangelical Christian relations for two decades, offered a more sympathetic description of Bush's alignment with Israel and Sharon. "President Bush's policy stems from his core as a Christian, his perceptions of right and wrong, good and evil, and of the need to stand up and fight against evil," Eckstein said. "I personally believe it is very personal, not a political maneuver on his part."

Politics have played a role, several sources said. Gary Bauer, an evangelical Christian activist and Republican presidential candidate in 2000, said that he and like-minded evangelicals have campaigned vigorously in support of Israel and Sharon's tough policies. "I think we've had some impact," Bauer said.

Another conservative Republican with Christian ties who has made Israel a cause is House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.). Last April, speaking to a Jewish group in Washington, DeLay called Israel "the lone fountain of liberty" in the Middle East, and endorsed Israeli retention of the occupied territories. He referred to West Bank by the biblical names, Judea and Samaria, which are often used by Israelis who consider them part of Israel.

The Rev. Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention said the White House and its political director, Karl Rove, know "how critical [evangelical] support is to them and their party," and know how strongly evangelicals support Israel. "We need to bless Israel more than America needs Israel's blessing," Land said, "because Israel has a far greater ally than the United States of America, God Almighty."

"This is not your daddy's Republican Party," said James Zogby, president of the Arab-American Institute in Washington, who argues the administration is losing its ability to act as an honest broker in the Middle East by lining up with Israel. "There's a marriage here between the religious right and the neoconservatives," he said, referring to intellectual hard-liners such as Abrams and Perle, both of whom worked for Democrats before joining the Reagan administration.
US president Bush is a politician, and his "base" is deeply religious. Who is more open about what he is doing and saying, Bush, or Ahmadinejad ?
Quote:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIP...26/lol.05.html
LIVE FROM...

Former President Gerald Ford Hospitalized; Apocalypse Now?; Eight Israeli Soldiers Killed in Lebanon

Aired July 26, 2006 - 15:00 ET

....PHILLIPS:
.....Now, here is the kicker. The book, about 20 pages of Latin script, was allegedly found opened to Psalm 83. Now, if you're a scholar, as you know Psalm 83, "God hears complaints that other nations are plotting to wipe out the name of Israel." Well, that's precisely the kind of news nugget that would get the attention of my next guests, a seemingly random event with an eerie coincidence to reality.

<h3>Jerry Jenkins is in New York. Now, along with Tim LaHaye, he co- authored the widely popular "Left Behind" series -- only 63 million books sold, by the way. Also joining me, Joel Rosenberg in Washington.</h3> He's the author of "The Copper Scroll," the latest of several apocalyptic novels.

<h3>So, gentlemen, from books, to blogs, to the back pews, the buzz is all about the end times.</h3> What do you think about the Book of Psalms? Is this going to be the next thing that both of you will write about?

(LAUGHTER)

PHILLIPS: I'm getting...

(CROSSTALK)

JOEL ROSENBERG, AUTHOR, "THE COPPER SCROLL": Jerry, go ahead.

PHILLIPS: I'm getting smiles from both.

All right, Jerry...

(LAUGHTER)

PHILLIPS: ... will this be your next book?

JERRY B. JENKINS, CO-AUTHOR, "LEFT BEHIND": Well, that's a...

(LAUGHTER)

JENKINS: It's an amazing news story. I had not heard it. In some...

PHILLIPS: Really? OK. This is your -- this is news to you, then.

JENKINS: Yes. In some ways, it's -- it's not terribly surprising.

I mean, I think God finds ways of communicating with us. And -- and he does that through his word. That's an incredible story. And it would probably have to be written in fiction form, because people are going to find it hard to believe.

(LAUGHTER)

PHILLIPS: Well, Jerry, you have sold 60 million -- 63 million- plus books about the end times. Why do you think they have been so successful? And -- and why did you go that rite -- route? Why did you want to write about it? JENKINS: Well, the idea for fiction about the end times was really Dr. LaHaye's. He's a prophecy scholar and theologian, has been studying this stuff longer than I have been alive.

But he just had the idea that, after writing several nonfiction books about the subject, if -- if we could put it in fiction format, more people would find it accessible and understandable. And that has proven true.

And, because of the end of millennium, and because of 9/11, and because of what's happening in the Middle East right now, people are scared to death about the future. And I think they hear about books that are based on the prophecies of scripture, and it just intrigues them, and -- and makes them want to find out what we think.

PHILLIPS: So, Joel, are we living in the last days? I mean, let's talk about the specific signs to watch. You have written about them. What does the Bible say? And are we there?

ROSENBERG: Well, people are very interested, I agree.

You know, Tim and Jerry's books deal with the rapture, the disappearance of the church, and the events going forward in Revelation. My theories, "The Ezekiel Option," "The Copper Scroll," are about events that could lead up to the rapture and the return of Christ.

Yes, people are interested, because the rebirth of Israel, the fact that Jews are living in the Holy Land today, that is a Bible prophecy. <h3>When Iran, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, they begin to form an alliance against Israel, those are the prophecies from Ezekiel 38 and 39.

I have been -- that's what I'm basing my novels on. I have been invited to the White House, Capitol Hill. Members of Congress, Israelis, Arab leaders all want to understand the Middle East through the -- through the lens of biblical prophecies.</h3> I'm writing these novels that keep seeming to come true, but we are seeing Bible prophecy, bit by bit, unfold in the Middle East right now.

PHILLIPS: And you talk about epic battles for Jerusalem, you know, the -- the biblical prophecy. Get specific with us. Tell us...

ROSENBERG: Well, that...

PHILLIPS: ... what's happening now that -- that totally correlates with what you have written about biblically?

ROSENBERG: Well, that's right...
Quote:

http://www.beliefnet.com/story/121/story_12103_1.html
<h3>Tim LaHaye is the co-author, with Jerry Jenkins, of "Left Behind,"</h3> the popular Christian fiction series about the End Times. Some Christians believe in the Rapture, an apocalyptic event in which believers will rise from the earth to meet Christ while others are "left behind" to endure the tribulation -- a time of rampant lawlessness, disaster, famine, and illness -- prior to Jesus' return to the earth.

<h3>In your new book, you seem to want to recast the Rapture in a warmer light.</h3>
Actually I want to cast the nature of God in warmer light. The Rapture is a time of incredible mercy and grace. If you only look at the people who defy God, it's a negative time. But if you look at the whole population, it's a blessed time.

<h3>But you can hardly blame people for being scared. You've done as much as anyone to plant the catastrophic events of the Rapture in people's minds.</h3>
I wouldn't plead guilty to that. All we're doing is fleshing out the prophecy of the Bible. There is going to be a time of tribulation, but keep in mind that that seven years comes just before the millenium. The Tribulation is there to let people make a decision about Jesus Christ. For those who accept God's plan, what follows is nothing but utopia. But for those who reject it, it's eternal loss. I don't think that's different than what any Christian would tell you.

<h3>And yet the Rapture isn't considered orthodox Christian theology .</h3>
I think that is an erroneous conclusion propagated by the amillennialist and reform church movements. The truth is, Christianity is divided between those who take the Bible literally and those who take it figuratively. Those who take it literally are far more in the majority, if you're talking about evangelical Christians--Southern Baptists, Assemblies of God and independent churches, like the Brethren. There are a lot of denominational groups that accept this, so I don't think it's fair to say [it's a minority view]. Lets face it, we've sold more than five million copies of Left Behind books, and they say every copy is read by 10 people. Five million times 10 is a lot of people.....

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/25/us...=1&oref=slogin
February 25, 2007
Christian Right Labors to Find ’08 Candidate
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

WASHINGTON, Feb. 24 — A group of influential Christian conservatives and their allies emerged from a private meeting at a Florida resort this month dissatisfied with the Republican presidential field and uncertain where to turn.

The event was a meeting of the Council for National Policy, a secretive club whose few hundred members include Dr. James C. Dobson of Focus on the Family, the Rev. Jerry Falwell of Liberty University and Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. Although little known outside the conservative movement, the council has become a pivotal stop for Republican presidential primary hopefuls,<h3> including George W. Bush on the eve of his 1999 primary campaign.

But in a stark shift from the group’s influence under President Bush</h3>, the group risks relegation to the margins. Many of the conservatives who attended the event, held at the beginning of the month at the Ritz-Carlton on Amelia Island, Fla., said they were dismayed at the absence of a champion to carry their banner in the next election....

....And some members of the council have raised doubts about lesser known candidates — Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Representative Duncan Hunter of California, who were invited to Amelia Island to address an elite audience of about 60 of its members, and Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, who spoke to the full council at its previous meeting, in October in Grand Rapids, Mich.

Although each of the three had supporters, many conservatives expressed concerns about whether any of the candidates could unify their movement or raise enough money to overtake the front-runners, several participants in the meetings said....

....“There is great anxiety,” said Paul Weyrich, chairman of the Free Congress Foundation. “There is no outstanding conservative, and they are all looking for that.”

Mr. Weyrich, a longtime member of the council, declined to discuss the group or its meetings. The council’s bylaws forbid members from publicly disclosing its membership or activities, and participants agreed to discuss the Amelia Island meeting only on the condition of anonymity.

<h3>For eight years and four elections, President Bush forged a singular alliance with Christian conservatives — including dispatching administration officials and even cabinet members to address council meetings — that put them at the center of the Republican Party.</h3>...

....The Council for National Policy <h2>was founded 25 years ago by the Rev. Tim LaHaye as a forum for conservative Christians to strategize about turning the country to the right. Its secrecy was intended to insulate the group from what its members considered the liberal bias of the news media.</h2> ....

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=121170
Inside the Council for National Policy
Meet the Most Powerful Conservative Group You've Never Heard Of

.....In 1999, candidate George W. Bush spoke before a closed-press CNP session in San Antonio. His speech, contemporaneously described as a typical mid-campaign ministration to conservatives, was recorded on audio tape.

(Depending on whose account you believe, Bush promised to appoint only anti-abortion-rights judges to the Supreme Court, or he stuck to his campaign "strict constructionist" phrase. Or he took a tough stance against gays and lesbians, or maybe he didn't).

The media and center-left activist groups urged the group and Bush's presidential campaign to release the tape of his remarks. <h3>The CNP, citing its bylaws that restrict access to speeches, declined. So did the Bush campaign, citing the CNP.</h3>

Shortly thereafter, magisterial conservatives pronounced the allegedly moderate younger Bush fit for the mantle of Republican leadership.

The two events might not be connected. But since none of the participants would say what Bush said, the CNP's kingmaking role mushroomed in the mind's eye, at least to the Democratic National Committee, which urged release of the tapes.

Partly because so little was known about CNP, the hubbub died down.....
<h3>At least the president of Iran doesn't make secret speeches to his religious, wack job, "second coming", base, unlike our US president.....</h3>
Quote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...05/wmid105.xml
US evangelist leads the millions seeking a battle with Islam

By Alec Russell in Washington
Last Updated: 1:00am BST 05/08/2006

Anyone who wants to understand why Israel has such unwavering support from the United States should speak to one man.

Fiery television evangelist Pastor John Hagee has emerged as the rallying voice for thousands of American Christians who believe Israel is doing God's work in a "war of good versus evil".

When he strode on to a stage in Washington last month, he was cheered to the rafters by 3,500 prominent evangelicals - as well as by Israel's ambassador to America, a former Israeli chief of staff and a host of US congressmen of both parties.
advertisement

"After 25 years of hammering away at the truth on national television, millions of people have come to see the truth of the word of God," Mr Hagee told The Daily Telegraph. "There is literally a groundswell of support for Israel in the USA among evangelicals."

Twenty-five years ago, Mr Hagee was denounced as a heretic when he urged his fellow preachers to speak out in support of Israel. He also met with huge suspicion from Jews who thought that anti-Semitism was the standard evangelical belief.

When he persevered and hosted a "night to honour Israel" in his hometown, San Antonio, there was a bomb threat and panicked Christian followers ran for the door.

But today most of America's 60 million Christian evangelicals, who make up about a quarter of the US electorate and the essence of the President's "base", <h3>are behind Mr Bush's pro-Israeli position and are pushing for a showdown with Iran.</h3> As many as half of those are Christian Zionists.

Mr Hagee said: "What we have done is united all of this evangelical horsepower and said, 'We're not just going to Washington to stand on the grass and sing Amazing Grace. We're going into the halls of Congress to see the senators and to see the congressmen face-to-face and to speak to them about our concerns for Israel'."

His claim of political clout is no idle boast. <h3>The President sent a message of support praising him for "spreading the hope of God's Love and the universal gift of freedom". They met several times when Mr Bush was governor of Texas.</h3>

America has long identified with Israel against its Arab foes. This backing has been shored up in Washington by the influential Israeli lobby. It also reflects a cultural affinity which is greater in the wake of the September 11 attacks: for most Americans, Israel is on the front line against terrorism.

Another key factor in this bond, however, is Christian Zionism: a booming movement <h3>based on the idea that Israel's travails fulfil Biblical prophecy and are a forerunner of the battle of Armageddon and the Second Coming.</h3>

As the head of Christians United for Israel, an organisation linking hundreds of US evangelical leaders, it is no exaggeration to say that Mr Hagee is one of Israel's most influential supporters.

Outside his mega-church is a facsimile "Wailing Wall". Inside on a flagpole is the Israeli flag and tributes from Israeli visitors, including prime minister Ehud Olmert, who came several times when he was mayor of Jerusalem.

In his recent book, Jerusalem Countdown - A Warning to the World, Mr Hagee seeks a showdown between Islam and the West. "This is a religious war that Islam cannot and must not win," he writes. "The end of the world as we know it is rapidly approaching... Rejoice and be exceedingly glad the best is yet to be."

He concedes it was a "difficult mountain to climb" to persuade evangelicals to back Israel. <h3>Many dispute his contention that some Jews can "find favour with God". Traditionally, evangelicals have argued that Jews will have to convert or face a double Holocaust at the battle of Armageddon.</h3>

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=11541
Pastor Strangelove

Texan John Hagee may not have his “perfect red heifer” yet. But he does have a huge following, the ear of the White House -- and a theory that an invasion of Iran was foretold in the Book of Esther.

Sarah Posner | May 21, 2006

.....He had been asked to explain the significance of Purim to Christians, and particularly how the Old Testament's Book of Esther “serves as a roadmap to reality,” which pinpoints where the next world “hot spot” will be.

That soon-to-be-flaming location is where the Book of Esther was set: namely Persia, or in modern parlance, Iran.

Seated beside Lapin in the ornately gilded Trinity Broadcasting Network (TBN) studio was Pastor John Hagee, the author of an incendiary new book purporting to show that the Bible predicts a military confrontation with Iran. By then, Hagee's book, Jerusalem Countdown, had sold nearly 500,000 copies. ....

....Hagee, who serves as head pastor of the 18,000-member Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, Texas, hosts his own television program that is seen twice a day on TBN. He argues that the United States must join Israel in a pre-emptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God's plan for both Israel and the West. Shortly after the release of his book last January, he launched Christians United for Israel (CUFI), a lobbying organization intended, he says, to be a Christian version of the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. With CUFI, which Hagee has said will cause a “political earthquake,” the televangelist aims to put the political organizing muscle of the conservative evangelical movement behind his grand plan for a biblically prophesied end-time confrontation with Iran, which will lead to the Rapture, Tribulation, and Second Coming of Christ.

While Washington insiders wonder and worry whether President Bush really is bent on a military strike against Iran, Hagee already has spent months mobilizing the shock troops in support of another war. As diplomats, experts, and pundits debate how many years Iran will need to develop a viable nuclear weapon, Hagee says the mullahs already possess the means to destroy Israel and America. And although Bush insists that diplomatic options are still on the table, Hagee has dismissed pussyfooting diplomacy and primed his followers for a conflagration.

Indeed, Hagee wields “a very large megaphone” that reaches “a very large group of people,” said Rabbi James Rudin of the American Jewish Committee, who has studied the Christian right for 30 years. With CUFI, the Texas pastor has exponentially expanded the reach of his megaphone beyond his television audience......

Quote:

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/met...e.14a97df.html

S.A. pastor a champion for Israel

Web Posted: 07/22/2006 11:59 PM CDT

....He's drawn both praise and criticism from Jewish and Christian leaders for what's become his life's work.

His reach — television and radio broadcasts in 190 countries, 21 major books, plus his Cornerstone Church, with an average Sunday attendance of 8,000 to 9,000 — is undeniable.

.....In an interview Friday with San Antonio Express-News Staff Writer Abe Levy, the pastor addressed his pro-Israel campaign and the latest Mideast fighting.

You've visited Israel 23 times and known Israeli prime ministers dating back to Menachem Begin. You've donated $12 million in recent years for 12,000 Russian Jews to relocate to Israel. Why?.....

......Five months ago, you founded Christians United for Israel with 400 evangelical leaders. The group drew 3,500 people to its first-ever summit last week in Washington D.C., and met with members of Congress. You've said this summit will be repeated yearly. What else is in store for the group?

We're going to have a 'call to action' e-mail and fax. Every spiritual leader in the nation, we want to be able to communicate to them every Monday morning about the issues facing America. ... We have something over 16,500 leaders on our 'call to action' list, and some of those leaders have more than a million people on their e-mail and fax address......
Which country has 8,000 nuclear weapons, 12 aircraft carrier task force groups, a fleet of attack submarines and submarines armed with nuclear ICBMs? Iran, or the US?
Quote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...071501032.html
Marching as to War
Former Air Force Officer Mikey Weinstein Zeroes In on Proselytizing in the Military

By Alan Cooperman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 16, 2006; Page D01

........Yet one of his favorite lines these days -- right up there with "sucking chest wounds" -- comes from <h3>the Officers' Christian Fellowship, a private organization with 14,000 active-duty members</h3> on more than 200 U.S. military bases around the world. In its mission statement, <h3<the OCF says its goal is "a spiritually transformed military, with ambassadors for Christ in uniform, empowered by the Holy Spirit.".......</h3>

......Ambassadors for Christ in uniform. To Weinstein, who is both a Jew and a member of a military family, it is an abomination. It "evokes the Crusades." He says he can't believe that generals talk like this when the United States is fighting a global war on terror and trying to win hearts and minds in Muslim countries...........

This is not an extreme post, authored by an extremist. It is a balancing act, because some here have no sense of balance.

ottopilot 12-06-2007 08:51 AM

edit

roachboy 04-12-2008 08:12 AM

here it comes again....

Quote:

Iran Top Threat To Iraq, U.S. Says
Focus on Al-Qaeda Now Diminishing

By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 12, 2008; A01

Last week's violence in Basra and Baghdad has convinced the Bush administration that actions by Iran, and not al-Qaeda, are the primary threat inside Iraq, and has sparked a broad reassessment of policy in the region, according to senior U.S. officials.

Evidence of an increase in Iranian weapons, training and direction for the Shiite militias that battled U.S. and Iraqi security forces in those two cities has fixed new U.S. attention on what Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates yesterday called Tehran's "malign" influence, the officials said.

The intensified focus on Iran coincides with diminished emphasis on al-Qaeda in Iraq as the leading justification for an ongoing U.S. military presence in Iraq.

In congressional hearings this week, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus said the U.S. military has driven al-Qaeda from Baghdad, Anbar province and central Iraq, and he depicted the group as now largely concentrated in a reduced territory around the northern city of Mosul.

During their Washington visit, Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker barely mentioned al-Qaeda in Iraq but spoke extensively of Iran.

With "al-Qaeda in retreat and disarray" in Iraq, said one official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record, "we see other obstacles that were under the waterline more clearly. . . . The Iranian-armed militias are now the biggest threat to internal order."

Partly in response to advice from Petraeus and Crocker, the administration has initiated an interagency assessment of what is known about Iranian activities and intentions, how to combat them and how to capitalize on them. The review stems from an internal conclusion, following last week's fighting, that the administration lacked a comprehensive understanding and a sophisticated approach.

President Bush reiterated yesterday that if Iran continues to help militias in Iraq, "then we'll deal with them," saying in an interview with ABC News that "we're learning more about their habits and learning more about their routes" for infiltrating or sending equipment.

But he also reaffirmed that he has no desire to go to war with Tehran. Saying that his job is to "solve these issues diplomatically," Bush suggested heightened interest in reaching a solution with other countries. "You can't solve these problems unilaterally. You're going to need a multilateral forum."

Iran has long been seen as a spoiler in Iraq, with such strong ties to all of the major Shiite political and militia groups, including that of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, that other Arab countries have begun to regard Iraq as almost a client state of Iran.

The recent fighting in Basra, which began when Maliki launched a military offensive against the Mahdi Army militia of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, revealed a threat and an opportunity, officials said.

U.S. military officials said that much of the plentiful, high quality weaponry the militia used in Basra and in rocket attacks against the Green Zone in Baghdad, where the U.S. Embassy and much of the Iraqi government are located, was recently manufactured in Iran. At the same time, the militia's improved targeting and tactics indicated stepped-up Iranian training.

Interrogations of four leaders of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force captured in Iraq in December 2006 and January 2007 have also bolstered U.S. conclusions that portions of Sadr's militia are directed from Tehran.

Despite earlier indications that Iranian backing for Iraqi armed groups and the flow of Iranian arms have waned, Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said yesterday that "this action in Basra was very convincing that indeed they haven't." Basra "gave us much more insight into their involvement in many activities."

Gates, who appeared with Mullen at a Pentagon news conference, said of Iran: "We are going to be as aggressive as we possibly can be inside Iraq in trying to counter their efforts." Iraqi security operations in Basra, he said, have been "a real eye-opener" for Maliki's government.

Petraeus told Congress that Maliki had launched the offensive hastily and with inadequate preparation, leading to a standoff and the need to call in U.S. air support. During the first days of the Basra operation, U.S. officials were sharply critical of Maliki's timing and performance; some worried that the attack against Sadr forces was less an offensive against what he called "criminals" in Basra than it was an attempt to win political advantage over a rival Shiite group before upcoming elections.

Iran's brokering of a tentative cease-fire among Shiite political groups and the militia in Tehran added to U.S. consternation.

"The importance of Iranian influence in facilitating the discussion between different political factions was of significant importance," Petraeus told Pentagon reporters yesterday. Administration officials worried that Iran appeared in control of events in Iraq, while the United States seemed weak and uninformed.

But more recently, U.S. officials have seen a possible advantage in the situation. Maliki's willingness to go after fellow Shiites attracted support from other political groups in Iraq, including Sunnis and Kurds, that have long been suspicious of his sectarian leanings. It also gave Washington a talking point to use with Sunni Arab governments in the region that have shunned him. "It's an opportunity to make him look better inside Iraq and to make a better argument to the Arabs," an official said.

The administration has long tried in vain to build Arab diplomatic and economic support for the Iraqi government. But the Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia, consider Shiite Iran a competitor for regional dominance and have rejected Maliki as "a stooge for Tehran," as one U.S. official called him.

"The Saudis appear to feel that the current Iraqi government is pretty much in thrall to Iran," said a State Department official involved in Middle East policy. The administration's hope, "in the wake of Maliki's decisions on Basra," the official said, "is that the Saudis will take a step back and take another look."

In a news conference Thursday, Crocker dismissed Arab concerns about a recent visit to Baghdad by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "It's not the fact of the Ahmadinejad visit, but the absence of visits by other neighbors that it's important to focus on. There hasn't been a single visit, even by an Arab cabinet minister, to Baghdad. As Iraq grapples with the challenges Iran is posing, it could certainly do with some Arab support."

After consultations with Crocker and Petraeus this week, Bush cut short their Washington visit and dispatched them to Riyadh. During a luncheon at The Washington Post, Crocker said that at a White House meeting Thursday morning, they "reviewed where we are in Iraq."

The message to the Saudis, he said, "is going to be . . . it is time, more than time, for the Arab states to step forward and engage constructively with Iraq. Get their embassies open, get ambassadors on the ground, consider visits, implement debt relief, treat Iraq like the country it is, which is a central part of the Arab world."

Staff writers Peter Baker and Ann Scott Tyson contributed to this report.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...041101606.html

Baraka_Guru 04-12-2008 08:18 AM

Quote:

Iran's brokering of a tentative cease-fire among Shiite political groups and the militia in Tehran added to U.S. consternation.
Does this mean the Americans are threatened by the Iranian progress of establishing political ties in Iraq?

I suppose that is one of the fastest ways to get attacked.

roachboy 04-12-2008 08:35 AM

apparently, such iranian involvement as there was in the ceasefire that enabled the bush administration to claim that "the surge" was doing anything at all is understood as a threat. that there would be some political ties seems self-evident, given.

what this seems to me to raise in a backhanded way is why iran is not PART OF THE PROCESS rather than a threat to the bush people's neo-con understanding of geopolitics?

so bush administration intentions toward and understanding of iran is (are?) a troubling variable(s?)--each time the question resurfaces, i find myself getting uneasy in a new and improved way.

Baraka_Guru 04-12-2008 08:41 AM

Yeah. It is becoming even more apparent that the Bush administration isn't so much concerned about the well-being of Iraq as it is with the dominion over its fate. As long as they see Iran as an undeniable threat, Iraq will remain unstable. This isn't so much about Iran's "meddling" as it is about the political and cultural factors of Iraq/Iran interactions.

This isn't the first time America as been insensitive (ignorant?) in this regard.

host 04-12-2008 09:16 AM

From roachboy's article:
Quote:

.....After consultations with Crocker and Petraeus this week, Bush cut short their Washington visit and dispatched them to Riyadh. During a luncheon at The Washington Post, Crocker said that at a White House meeting Thursday morning, they "reviewed where we are in Iraq."

The message to the Saudis, he said, "is going to be . . . it is time, more than time, for the Arab states to step forward and engage constructively with Iraq. Get their embassies open, get ambassadors on the ground, consider visits, implement debt relief, treat Iraq like the country it is, which is a central part of the Arab world."

Just as the monster Dr. Frankenstein created, turned out to be, Iraq has turned into the Bush administration's worst nightmare....the thing it was kept from becoming, under Saddam's harsh rule, a shi'a dominated Islamic republic, closely aligned with it's next door neighbor, shi'a dominated Islamic republic, Iran. I don't see the sunni Saudis welcoming this development or being swayed by Bush/Crocker demands.

I detailed in this recent post, the indications that Iran has already won the war in Iraq

http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showpos...1&postcount=11

The Iranian president announces his visit weeks in advance, is met at the airport by prominent Iraqi officials, with the exception of sunnis, receives the ceremony of a state visit, travels from the airport without massive security or even in an armoured vehicle, and stays in Baghdad, outside the green zone.

Cheney and McCain, less than two weeks later, sneak unannounced, in tandem "surprise" visits, into Iraq, with ever present massive security when they aren't hunkered down in the green zone.

This terrorist is allowed a frequent, open forum on Fox to tout his propaganda and his terrorist organization, Fox pays him to do it, and he is allowed to live and work in the US:
Quote:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,350391,00.html
A Roadmap for Success in Iraq

Friday, April 11, 2008

By Alireza Jafarzadeh


There is no doubt Iraq’s No. 1 problem is, in fact, Iran. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a malicious, but nonetheless superficial threat, Iran under the expansionist rule of ayatollahs is a strategic threat for a sovereign, unified and democratic Iraq. Currently, Iran's widespread and deadly presence in Iraq includes as many as 32,000 Iraqis on its payroll. Made up of agents within and without Nuri al-Maliki’s government, this list includes senior officials in the Iraqi police force, ministries, National Assembly and other institutions.

The United States can still reverse the tide and win in Iraq, but it must act quickly and decisively. Rather than wasting time, blood and treasure debating some sort of ineffectual and illusory “diplomatic surge” aimed at converting the murderous ayatollahs’ regime into a peace partner, we should focus on effective, albeit bold, new approaches.

Any viable game plan must start by stepping up the arrest of the regime's agents in Iraq; cutting off smuggling routes for weapons, explosives and agents; disarming the Shiite militias which include the Badr Brigade, not just the Mahdi Army, as well as scores of other violent proxy groups such as Seyyed ol Shohada and 15th Shaban groups; and purging the Iraqi government of Tehran's proxies. In other words, the U.S. must set about vigorously dismantling Iran's terror network in Iraq.

This must be coupled with empowering the moderate, non-sectarian Iraqi political figures so that they can form a national unity government. That must be the focal point of Washington’s political efforts in Iraq. Nuri al-Maliki and his government, commonly known among Iraqis as the "Persian ex-pats in light of the many years of grooming they received from the Qods Force in Iran, are a liability. Iraq under Maliki will never see unity, non-sectarianism or democracy.

Many moderate Iraqi politicians, including some key members of Parliament, view Iran's main opposition group, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), based in Ashraf City, Iraq, as a reliable partner for genuine democracy in Iraq and Iran. The MEK has acted as a catalyst for building stability, and has fostered unity among moderate Shiites and Sunnis. A large group of bipartisan members of the U.S. Congress believe that Washington should open a dialogue with the MEK, as a strategic partner in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism and a bulwark against the Iranian regime’s influence in Iraq. According to the U.S. military, since 2003, the MEK has exposed many of Iran’s terrorist conspiracies in Iraq, thus saving the lives of countless Iraqis and Americans.

The strength and resilience of the Iraqi people should reassure us that tomorrow’s Iraq does not have to be a sister Islamic Republic of Iran. If Tehran’s tentacles are cut off in Iraq, the Iraqi people will have a real chance to form a peaceful, non-sectarian and democratic society. That is a plan that seems to already have the support of the U.S. Congress.....




....There is no doubt Iraq’s No. 1 problem is, in fact, Iran. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a malicious, but nonetheless superficial threat, Iran under the expansionist rule of ayatollahs is a strategic threat for a sovereign, unified and democratic Iraq. Currently, Iran's widespread and deadly presence in Iraq includes as many as 32,000 Iraqis on its payroll. Made up of agents within and without Nuri al-Maliki’s government, this list includes senior officials in the Iraqi police force, ministries, National Assembly and other institutions.

The United States can still reverse the tide and win in Iraq, but it must act quickly and decisively. Rather than wasting time, blood and treasure debating some sort of ineffectual and illusory “diplomatic surge” aimed at converting the murderous ayatollahs’ regime into a peace partner, we should focus on effective, albeit bold, new approaches.

Any viable game plan must start by stepping up the arrest of the regime's agents in Iraq; cutting off smuggling routes for weapons, explosives and agents; disarming the Shiite militias which include the Badr Brigade, not just the Mahdi Army, as well as scores of other violent proxy groups such as Seyyed ol Shohada and 15th Shaban groups; and purging the Iraqi government of Tehran's proxies. In other words, the U.S. must set about vigorously dismantling Iran's terror network in Iraq.

This must be coupled with empowering the moderate, non-sectarian Iraqi political figures so that they can form a national unity government. That must be the focal point of Washington’s political efforts in Iraq. Nuri al-Maliki and his government, commonly known among Iraqis as the "Persian ex-pats in light of the many years of grooming they received from the Qods Force in Iran, are a liability. Iraq under Maliki will never see unity, non-sectarianism or democracy.

<h3>Many moderate Iraqi politicians, including some key members of Parliament, view Iran's main opposition group, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), based in Ashraf City, Iraq, as a reliable partner for genuine democracy in Iraq and Iran. The MEK has acted as a catalyst for building stability, and has fostered unity among moderate Shiites and Sunnis. A large group of bipartisan members of the U.S. Congress believe that Washington should open a dialogue with the MEK, as a strategic partner in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism and a bulwark against the Iranian regime’s influence in Iraq.</h3> According to the U.S. military, since 2003, the MEK has exposed many of Iran’s terrorist conspiracies in Iraq, thus saving the lives of countless Iraqis and Americans.

The strength and resilience of the Iraqi people should reassure us that tomorrow’s Iraq does not have to be a sister Islamic Republic of Iran. If Tehran’s tentacles are cut off in Iraq, the Iraqi people will have a real chance to form a peaceful, non-sectarian and democratic society. That is a plan that seems to already have the support of the U.S. Congress.
The signs are that US interests have collapsed in Iraq to the point that only the sunnis have common goals with the Americans, but they are the side of Saddam and al Qaeda, aren't they? Can a supporter of Bush policy come on the thread and attempt to make some sense of these contradictions for us?

Tully Mars 04-12-2008 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by host
Just as the monster Dr. Frankenstein created, turned out to be, Iraq has turned into the Bush administration's worst nightmare....the thing it was kept from becoming, under Saddam's harsh rule, a shi'a dominated Islamic republic, closely aligned with it's next door neighbor, shi'a dominated Islamic republic, Iran. I don't see the sunni Saudis welcoming this development or being swayed by Bush/Crocker demands.

I'm getting closer and closer to believing this isn't a Bush and Co. nightmare but rather exactly what they want. A self fulfillling, endless reason to poor billions into the pockets of defense contractors with a side bonus of scaring the living crap out of citizens to the point where many have no problems giving up basic, well defined, civil rights and liberties.

host 04-12-2008 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars
I'm getting closer and closer to believing this isn't a Bush and Co. nightmare but rather exactly what they want. A self fulfillling, endless reason to poor billions into the pockets of defense contractors with a side bonus of scaring the living crap out of citizens to the point where many have no problems giving up basic, well defined, civil rights and liberties.

tully, they got it up and running and they can't shut it down now, but they probably never intended to....

"The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down...

...Everytime that wheel turn round
bound to cover just a little more ground"

Quote:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070402/scahill
article | posted March 15, 2007 (April 2, 2007 issue)
Bush's Shadow Army
Jeremy Scahill


Jeremy Scahill reports on the Bush Administration's growing dependence on private security forces such as Blackwater USA and efforts in Congress to rein them in. This article is adapted from his new book, <a href="http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070402/scahill">Blackwater: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army (Nation Books).</a>

On September 10, 2001, before most Americans had heard of Al Qaeda or imagined the possibility of a "war on terror," Donald Rumsfeld stepped to the podium at the Pentagon to deliver one of his first major addresses as Defense Secretary under President George W. Bush. Standing before the former corporate executives he had tapped as his top deputies overseeing the high-stakes business of military contracting--many of them from firms like Enron, General Dynamics and Aerospace Corporation--Rumsfeld issued a declaration of war.

"The topic today is an adversary that poses a threat, a serious threat, to the security of the United States of America," Rumsfeld thundered. "It disrupts the defense of the United States and places the lives of men and women in uniform at risk." He told his new staff, "You may think I'm describing one of the last decrepit dictators of the world.... [But] the adversary's closer to home," he said. "It's the Pentagon bureaucracy." Rumsfeld called for a wholesale shift in the running of the Pentagon, supplanting the old DoD bureaucracy with a new model, one based on the private sector. Announcing this major overhaul, Rumsfeld told his audience, "I have no desire to attack the Pentagon; I want to liberate it. We need to save it from itself."

The next morning, the Pentagon would be attacked, literally, as a Boeing 757--American Airlines Flight 77--smashed into its western wall. Rumsfeld would famously assist rescue workers in pulling bodies from the rubble. But it didn't take long for Rumsfeld to seize the almost unthinkable opportunity presented by 9/11 to put his personal war--laid out just a day before--on the fast track. The new Pentagon policy would emphasize covert actions, sophisticated weapons systems and greater reliance on private contractors. It became known as the Rumsfeld Doctrine. "We must promote a more entrepreneurial approach: one that encourages people to be proactive, not reactive, and to behave less like bureaucrats and more like venture capitalists," Rumsfeld wrote in the summer of 2002 in an article for Foreign Affairs titled "Transforming the Military."

Although Rumsfeld was later thrown overboard by the Administration in an attempt to placate critics of the Iraq War, his military revolution was here to stay. Bidding farewell to Rumsfeld in November 2006, <h3>Bush credited him with overseeing the "most sweeping transformation of America's global force posture since the end of World War II." Indeed, Rumsfeld's trademark "small footprint" approach ushered in one of the most significant developments in modern warfare--the widespread use of private contractors in every aspect of war, including in combat. </h3>

The often overlooked subplot of the wars of the post-9/11 period is their unprecedented scale of outsourcing and privatization. From the moment the US troop buildup began in advance of the invasion of Iraq, the Pentagon made private contractors an integral part of the operations. Even as the government gave the public appearance of attempting diplomacy, Halliburton was prepping for a massive operation. When US tanks rolled into Baghdad in March 2003, they brought with them the largest army of private contractors ever deployed in modern war. By the end of Rumsfeld's tenure in late 2006, there were an estimated 100,000 private contractors on the ground in Iraq--an almost one-to-one ratio with active-duty American soldiers.

To the great satisfaction of the war industry, before Rumsfeld resigned he took the extraordinary step of classifying private contractors as an official part of the US war machine. In the Pentagon's 2006 Quadrennial Review, Rumsfeld outlined what he called a "road map for change" at the DoD, which he said had begun to be implemented in 2001. <h3>It defined the "Department's Total Force" as "its active and reserve military components, its civil servants, and its contractors--constitut[ing] its warfighting capability and capacity. </h3>Members of the Total Force serve in thousands of locations around the world, performing a vast array of duties to accomplish critical missions." This formal designation represented a major triumph for war contractors--conferring on them a legitimacy they had never before enjoyed.

Contractors have provided the Bush Administration with political cover, allowing the government to deploy private forces in a war zone free of public scrutiny, with the deaths, injuries and crimes of those forces shrouded in secrecy. The Administration and the GOP-controlled Congress in turn have shielded the contractors from accountability, oversight and legal constraints. Despite the presence of more than 100,000 private contractors on the ground in Iraq, only one has been indicted for crimes or violations. "We have over 200,000 troops in Iraq and half of them aren't being counted, and the danger is that there's zero accountability," says Democrat Dennis Kucinich, one of the leading Congressional critics of war contracting.

While the past years of Republican monopoly on government have marked a golden era for the industry, those days appear to be ending. Just a month into the new Congressional term, leading Democrats were announcing investigations of runaway war contractors. Representative John Murtha, chair of the Appropriations Committee's Subcommittee on Defense, after returning from a trip to Iraq in late January, said, "We're going to have extensive hearings to find out exactly what's going on with contractors. They don't have a clear mission and they're falling all over each other." Two days later, during confirmation hearings for Gen. George Casey as Army chief of staff, Senator Jim Webb declared, "This is a rent-an-army out there." Webb asked Casey, "Wouldn't it be better for this country if those tasks, particularly the quasi-military gunfighting tasks, were being performed by active-duty military soldiers in terms of cost and accountability?" Casey defended the contracting system but said armed contractors "are the ones that we have to watch very carefully." Senator Joe Biden, chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, has also indicated he will hold hearings on contractors. Parallel to the ongoing investigations, there are several bills gaining steam in Congress aimed at contractor oversight.

Occupying the hot seat through these deliberations is the shadowy mercenary company Blackwater USA. Unbeknownst to many Americans and largely off the Congressional radar, Blackwater has secured a position of remarkable power and protection within the US war apparatus. This company's success represents the realization of the life's work of the conservative officials who formed the core of the Bush Administration's war team, for whom radical privatization has long been a cherished ideological mission. <h3>Blackwater has repeatedly cited Rumsfeld's statement that contractors are part of the "Total Force" as evidence that it is a legitimate part of the nation's "warfighting capability and capacity."</h3> Invoking Rumsfeld's designation, the company has in effect declared its forces above the law--entitled to the immunity from civilian lawsuits enjoyed by the military, but also not bound by the military's court martial system. While the initial inquiries into Blackwater have focused on the complex labyrinth of secretive subcontracts under which it operates in Iraq, a thorough investigation into the company reveals a frightening picture of a politically connected private army that has become the Bush Administration's Praetorian Guard.




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The "for profit" arm of the "Total Force", is not going to accept "slowing quarterly revenues", a cessation of hostilities that would result in a "hit to it's bottomline".

Tully Mars 04-12-2008 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by host
tully, they got it up and running and they can't shut it down now, but they probably never intended to....

"The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down...

...Everytime that wheel turn round
bound to cover just a little more ground"



The "for profit" arm of the "Total Force", is not going to accept "slowing quarterly revenues", a cessation of hostilities that would result in a "hit to it's bottomline".

I honestly don't know what to believe anymore. One thing I do believe is even they don't believe what they're saying anymore. Then that happened I haven't a clue. Did they know the intel on the WMD's was BS? Did they know the insurgency was going to be a huge problem? Did they know this was going to cost 100's of billions? Did they know the surge wasn't sustainable? I don't know but I'm sure at some point they knew "we've turned or are turning a corner" was and is a BS statement.

host 04-12-2008 11:40 AM

/
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars
I honestly don't know what to believe anymore. One thing I do believe is even they don't believe what they're saying anymore. Then that happened I haven't a clue. Did they know the intel on the WMD's was BS? Did they know the insurgency was going to be a huge problem? Did they know this was going to cost 100's of billions? Did they know the surge wasn't sustainable? I don't know but I'm sure at some point they knew "we've turned or are turning a corner" was and is a BS statement.

I think that for what you said in your previous post to be true, it would follow that they at least knew before 9/11 that an attack was coming and decided to let it play out and then "follow on", and that they deliberately handled the Katrina disaster in a way that would maximize profits for crony contractors, even it is minimized support and aid for the disaster victims. Every where you look.... fired Arabian horse judge appointed to head FEMA, after equally unqualified former Bush campaign manager resigns as FEMA head, to John Bolton, on record, AFTER 9/11....saying it would improve UN if top ten stories of it's HQ buikding were removed.....is appointed by BUSH to head US mission to UN....counter to senate approval, Hans von Spakovsky, accused , at DOJ, of interfering with the minority right to vote, appointed by BUSH to FEC, counter to senate approval,

Bush Has Appointed Over 100 Lobbyists as 'Regulators'More than a dozen other high-ranking USDA officials appointed under Bush also have ties ... Lobbyists commonly suggest wording for legislation. But even EPA ...
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Texas Chainsaw Management: Politics & Power: vanityfair.com... a timber-industry lobbyist appointed to oversee the U.S. Forest Service; ... four years was a top official in the E.P.A.'s Office of Air and Radiation. ...
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LA Times: EPA Listens To Lobbyists, Boots Expert | Environmental ...Feb 29, 2008 ... EPA Axes Panel Chair at Request of Chemical Industry Lobbyists .... Toxicologist Deborah Rice was appointed chair of an EPA scientific panel ...
www.ewg.org/node/26075

Joint chiefs chairman Shinseki, forced out of office for countering Rumsfeld's opinion on Iraq invasion troop levels.

Joint chiefs chairman Gen. Peter Pace, forced out of office for countering Bush opinion of Iranian aid to Iraq insurgency....

Top admiral resigns after criticizing Bush Iran policy - TopixMar 11, 2008 ... Top admiral resigns after criticizing Bush Iran policy. President Bush and U.S. Central Command commander, Navy Admiral William J. Fallon ...
www.topix.com/forum/topstories/TSL8SLFLE9IN8TSU0

Morris Davis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaIn October 2007 Colonel Davis resigned from his position as Chief Prosecutor and retired ... Morris Davis. "Unforgivable Behavior, Inadmissible Evidence", ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Davis

It's not just the military, Tully...they are trying to advance Grover Norquist's quest to "drown government". like a baby in a bathtub, by first, fucking it up intentionally, soooo badly that they can "prove" it doesn't work. Then, what is left of it can be privatized, but mostly eliminated.

Junior, just 4 or 5 months from now, will have succeeded in piling $4 trillion in new debt on top of the existing, on January 20, 2001, $5.7 trillion debt that took 200 years to rack up. Even Junior's dad and king Reagan needed 12 years to turn a $995 billion debt into a $4.2 trillion debt!

There is no large protest of all of this, from the American people, so the willful official sabotage and massive destruction it results in, will continue until the results are so terrible that the bulk of people wake up. If it was all stopped today, it would take 15 or 20 years of competent government to even return things to conditions existing on Jan. 20, 2001....maybe.

roachboy 04-12-2008 12:52 PM

i don't think you need to go in this direction to explain the bush squad's irrational posture relative to iran, host---i think alot of what's in the above is acccurate in itself, but doesn't necessarily point in this direction.

remember the centrality that the iranian "hostage crisis" and its "nightline" DAY 400 opening played in generating opening the way to the reagan "landslide" (27% of the registered voters, but whatever)...the fumbling and bumbling of the reagan period is really quite funny--there's a book that details it by the former head of savak no less, but i can't remember the title at the moment...but iran is an old populist right bogeyman. by extension, there would be, and apparently is, a republican-specific Problem with chi'a islam--i don't really understand it except as a function of their interpretation of the iranian revolution by looking only at its outcome (not its dynamics) and by extension not thinking about why it is that the revolution was as it was--so basically, it seems that the neo-cons can be understood as still being a bit pissy about the overthrow of that lovely american lap-dog and really quite brutal dictator the shah.

the motivations behind iraq in 2003 seem to me to follow from the neo-con's update of that hoary old "stabbed in the back" theory to "explain" why the americans didn't johnwayne their way into baghdad during the first gulf war--shanked by the evil united nations, you see, and prevented thereby from fulfilling their manly destiny blah blah blah.

so you can see i think that the bush people's irrational attitude toward iran is a direct imprint of the history of the contemporary neo-con right, which is the foreign-policy adjunct to the populist conservative-as-perpetual-victim right that we know and love so well o yes.

this at the level of general narrative, naturlich.

powerclown 04-12-2008 01:05 PM

I can only hope the next President of the United States deal more effectively than the current one to contain the threat of a nuclear armed religious theocracy.

Quote:

Stopping Iran:
Why the Case for Military Action Still Stands

NORMAN PODHORETZ
February 2008

Up until a fairly short time ago, scarcely anyone dissented from the assessment offered with “high confidence” by the National Intelligence Estimate [NIE] of 2005 that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.” Correlatively, no one believed the protestations of the mullahs ruling Iran that their nuclear program was designed strictly for peaceful uses.

The reason for this near-universal consensus was that Iran, with its vast reserves of oil and natural gas, had no need for nuclear energy, and that in any case, the very nature of its program contradicted the protestations.

Here is how Time magazine put it as early as March 2003—long before, be it noted, the radical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had replaced the putatively moderate Mohamed Khatami as president:

On a visit last month to Tehran, International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] director Mohamed ElBaradei announced he had discovered that Iran was constructing a facility to enrich uranium—a key component of advanced nuclear weapons—near Natanz. But diplomatic sources tell Time the plant is much further along than previously revealed. The sources say work on the plant is “extremely advanced” and involves “hundreds” of gas centrifuges ready to produce enriched uranium and “the parts for a thousand others ready to be assembled.”
So, too, the Federation of American Scientists about a year later:

It is generally believed that Iran’s efforts are focused on uranium enrichment, though there are some indications of work on a parallel plutonium effort. Iran claims it is trying to establish a complete nuclear-fuel cycle to support a civilian energy program, but this same fuel cycle would be applicable to a nuclear-weapons development program. Iran appears to have spread their nuclear activities around a number of sites to reduce the risk of detection or attack.
And just as everyone agreed with the American intelligence community that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons,” everyone also agreed with President George W. Bush that it must not be permitted to succeed. Here, the reasons were many and various.

To begin with, Iran was (as certified even by the doves of the State Department) the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world, and it was therefore reasonable to fear that it would transfer nuclear technology to terrorists who would be only too happy to use it against us. Moreover, since Iran evidently aspired to become the hegemon of the Middle East, its drive for a nuclear capability could result (as, according to the New York Times, no fewer than 21 governments in and around the region were warning) in “a grave and destructive nuclear-arms race.” This meant a nightmarish increase in the chances of a nuclear war. An even greater increase in those chances would result from the power that nuclear weapons—and the missiles capable of delivering them, which Iran was also developing and/or buying—would give the mullahs to realize their evil dream of (in the words of Ahmadinejad) “wiping Israel off the map.”

Nor, as almost everyone also agreed, were the dangers of a nuclear Iran confined to the Middle East. Dedicated as the mullahs clearly were to furthering the transformation of Europe into a continent where Muslim law and practice would more and more prevail, they were bound to use nuclear intimidation and blackmail in pursuit of this goal as well. Beyond that, nuclear weapons would even serve the purposes of a far more ambitious aim: the creation of what Ahmadinejad called “a world without America.” Although, to be sure, no one imagined that Iran would acquire the capability to destroy the United States, it was easy to imagine that the United States would be deterred from standing in Iran’s way by the fear of triggering a nuclear war.

Running alongside the near-universal consensus on Iran’s nuclear intentions was a commensurately broad agreement that the regime could be stopped from realizing those intentions by a judicious combination of carrots and sticks. The carrots, offered through diplomacy, consisted of promises that if Iran were (in the words of the Security Council) to “suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA,” it would find itself on the receiving end of many benefits. If, however, Iran remained obdurate in refusing to comply with these demands, sticks would come into play in the form of sanctions.

And indeed, in response to continued Iranian defiance, a round of sanctions was approved by the Security Council in December 2006. When these (watered down to buy the support of the Russians and the Chinese) predictably failed to bite, a tougher round was unanimously authorized three months later, in March 2007. When these in turn failed, the United States, realizing that the Russians and the Chinese would veto stronger medicine, unilaterally imposed a new series of economic sanctions—which fared no better than the multilateral measures that had preceded them.

_____________



What then to do? President Bush kept declaring that Iran must not be permitted to get the bomb, and he kept warning that the “military option”—by which he meant air strikes, not an invasion on the ground—was still on the table as a last resort. On this issue our Western European allies were divided. To the surprise of many who had ceased thinking of France as an ally because of Jacques Chirac’s relentless opposition to the policies of the Bush administration, Nicholas Sarkozy, Chirac’s successor as president, echoed Bush’s warning in equally unequivocal terms. If, Sarkozy announced, the Iranians pressed on with their nuclear program, the world would be left with a choice between “an Iranian bomb and bombing Iran”—and he left no doubt as to where his own choice would fall. On the other hand, Gordon Brown, who had followed Tony Blair as prime minister of the UK, seemed less willing than Sarkozy to contemplate military action against Iran’s nuclear installations, even as a last resort. Like the new chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, Brown remained—or professed to remain—persuaded that more diplomacy and tougher sanctions would eventually work.

This left a great question hanging in the air: when, if ever, would Bush (and/or Sarkozy) conclude that the time had come to resort to the last resort?

Obviously the answer to that question depended on how long it would take for Iran itself to reach the point of no return. According to the NIE of 2005, it was “unlikely . . . that Iran would be able to make a nuclear weapon . . . before early-to-mid next decade”—that is, between 2010 and 2015. If that assessment, offered with “moderate confidence,” was correct, Bush would be off the hook, since he would be out of office for two years at the very least by the time the decision on whether or not to order air strikes would have to be made. That being the case, for the remainder of his term he could continue along the carrot-and-stick path, while striving to ratchet up the pressure on Iran with stronger and stronger measures that he could hope against hope might finally do the trick. If he could get these through the Security Council, so much the better; if not, the United States could try to assemble a coalition outside the UN that would be willing to impose really tough sanctions.

Under these circumstances, there would also be enough time to add another arrow to this nonmilitary quiver: a serious program of covert aid to dissident Iranians who dreamed of overthrowing the mullocracy and replacing it with a democratic regime. Those who had been urging Bush to launch such a program, and who were confident that it would succeed, pointed to polls showing great dissatisfaction with the mullocracy among the Iranian young, and to the demonstrations against it that kept breaking out all over the country. They also contended that even if a new democratic regime were to be as intent as the old one on developing nuclear weapons, neither it nor they would pose anything like the same kind of threat.

All well and good. The trouble was this: only by relying on the accuracy of the 2005 NIE would Bush be able in all good conscience to pass on to his successor the decision of whether or when to bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities. But that estimate, as he could hardly help knowing from the CIA’s not exactly brilliant track record, might easily be too optimistic.

To start with the most spectacular recent instance, the CIA had failed to anticipate 9/11. It then turned out to be wrong in 2002 about Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction, very likely because it was bending over backward to compensate for having been wrong in exactly the opposite direction in 1991, when at the end of the first Gulf war the IAEA discovered that the Iraqi nuclear program was far more advanced than the CIA had estimated. Regarding that by now notorious lapse, Jeffrey T. Richelson, a leading (and devoutly nonpartisan) authority on the American intelligence community, writes in Spying on the Bomb:

The extent that the United States and its allies underestimated and misunderstood the Iraqi program [before 1991] constituted a “colossal international intelligence failure,” according to one Israeli expert. [IAEA’s chief weapons inspector] Hans Blix acknowledged “that there was suspicion certainly,” but “to see the enormity of it is a shock.”
And these were only the most recent cases. Gabriel Schoenfeld, a close student of the intelligence community, offers a partial list of earlier mistakes and failures:

The CIA was established in 1947 in large measure to avoid another surprise attack like the one the U.S. had suffered on December 7, 1941 at Pearl Harbor. But only three years after its founding, the fledgling agency missed the outbreak of the Korean war. It then failed to understand that the Chinese would come to the aid of the North Koreans if American forces crossed the Yalu river. It missed the outbreak of the Suez war in 1956. In September 1962, the CIA issued an NIE which stated that the “Soviets would not introduce offensive missiles in Cuba”; in short order, the USSR did precisely that. In 1968 it failed to foresee the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. . . . It did not inform Jimmy Carter that the Soviet Union would invade Afghanistan in 1979.
Richelson adds a few more examples of hotly debated issues during the cold war that were wrongly resolved, including “the existence of a missile gap, the capabilities of the Soviet SS-9 intercontinental ballistic missile, [and] Soviet compliance with the test-ban and antiballistic missile treaties.” This is not to mention perhaps the most notorious case of all: the fiasco, known as the Bay of Pigs, produced by the CIA’s wildly misplaced confidence that an invasion of Cuba by the army of exiles it had assembled and trained would set off a popular uprising against the Castro regime.

On Bush’s part, then, deep skepticism was warranted concerning the CIA’s estimate of how much time we had before Iran reached the point of no return. As we have seen, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the IAEA, had “discovered” in 2003 that the Iranians were constructing facilities to enrich uranium. Still, as late as April 2007 the same ElBaradei was pooh-poohing the claims made by Ahmadinejad that Iran already had 3,000 centrifuges in operation. A month later, we learn from Richelson, ElBaradei changed his mind after a few spot inspections. “We believe,” ElBaradei now said, that the Iranians “pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich. From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge.”

We also learn from Richelson that another expert, Matthew Bunn of Harvard’s Center for Science and International Affairs, interpreted the new information the IAEA came up with in April 2007 as meaning that “whether they’re six months or a year away, one can debate. But it’s not ten years.” This chilling estimate of how little time we had to prevent Iran from getting the bomb was similar to the conclusion reached by several Israeli experts (though the official Israeli estimate put the point of no return in 2009).

_____________



Then, in a trice, everything changed. Even as Bush must surely have been wrestling with the question of whether it would be on his watch that the decision on bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities would have to be made, the world was hit with a different kind of bomb. This took the form of an unclassified summary of a new NIE, published early last December. Entitled “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” this new document was obviously designed to blow up the near-universal consensus that had flowed from the conclusions reached by the intelligence community in its 2005 NIE.1 In brief, whereas the NIE of 2005 had assessed “with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons,” the new NIE of 2007 did “not know whether [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”

This startling 180-degree turn was arrived at from new intelligence, offered by the new NIE with “high confidence”: namely, that “in fall 2003 Tehran halted its nuclear-weapons program.” The new NIE was also confident—though only moderately so—that “Tehran had not restarted its nuclear-weapons program as of mid-2007.” And in the most sweeping of its new conclusions, it was even “moderately confident” that “the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear-weapons program.”

Whatever else one might say about the new NIE, one point can be made with “high confidence”: that by leading with the sensational news that Iran had suspended its nuclear-weapons program in 2003, its authors ensured that their entire document would be interpreted as meaning that there was no longer anything to worry about. Of course, being experienced bureaucrats, they took care to protect themselves from this very accusation. For example, after dropping their own bomb on the fear that Iran was hell-bent on getting the bomb, they immediately added “with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.” But as they must have expected, scarcely anyone paid attention to this caveat. And as they must also have expected, even less attention was paid to another self-protective caveat, which—making doubly sure it would pass unnoticed—they relegated to a footnote appended to the lead sentence about the halt:

For the purposes of this Estimate, by “nuclear-weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear-weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.
Since only an expert could grasp the significance of this cunning little masterpiece of incomprehensible jargon, the damage had been done by the time its dishonesty was exposed.

The first such exposure came from John Bolton, who before becoming our ambassador to the UN had served as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, with a special responsibility for preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Donning this hat once again, Bolton charged that the dishonesty of the footnote lay most egregiously in the sharp distinction it drew between military and civilian programs. For, he said,

the enrichment of uranium, which all agree Iran is continuing, is critical to civilian and military uses [emphasis added]. Indeed, it has always been Iran’s “civilian” program that posed the main risk of a nuclear “breakout.”
Two other experts, Valerie Lincy, the editor of Iranwatch.org, writing in collaboration with Gary Milhollin, the director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, followed up with an explanation of why the halt of 2003 was much less significant than a layman would inevitably be led to think:

[T]he new report defines “nuclear-weapons program” in a ludicrously narrow way: it confines it to enriching uranium at secret sites or working on a nuclear-weapon design. But the halting of its secret enrichment and weapon-design efforts in 2003 proves only that Iran made a tactical move. It suspended work that, if discovered, would unambiguously reveal intent to build a weapon. It has continued other work, crucial to the ability to make a bomb, that it can pass off as having civilian applications.
Thus, as Lincy and Milhollin went on to write, the main point obfuscated by the footnote was that once Iran accumulated a stockpile of the kind of uranium fit for civilian use, it would “in a matter of months” be able “to convert that uranium . . . to weapons grade.”





_____________



Yet, in spite of these efforts to demonstrate that the new NIE did not prove that Iran had given up its pursuit of nuclear weapons, just about everyone in the world immediately concluded otherwise, and further concluded that this meant the military option was off the table. George Bush may or may not have been planning to order air strikes before leaving office, but now that the justification for doing so had been discredited by his own intelligence agencies, it would be politically impossible for him to go on threatening military action, let alone to take it.

But what about sanctions? In the weeks and months before the new NIE was made public, Bush had been working very hard to get a third and tougher round of sanctions approved by the Security Council. In trying to persuade the Russians and the Chinese to sign on, Bush argued that the failure to enact such sanctions would leave war as the only alternative. Yet if war was now out of the question, and if in any case Iran had for all practical purposes given up its pursuit of nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future, what need was there of sanctions?

Anticipating that this objection would be raised, the White House desperately set out to interpret the new NIE as, precisely, offering “grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically—without the use of force.” These words by Stephen Hadley, Bush’s National Security Adviser, represented the very first comment on the new NIE to emanate from the White House, and some version of them would be endlessly repeated in the days to come. Joining this campaign of damage control, Sarkozy and Brown issued similar statements, and even Merkel (who had been very reluctant to go along with Bush’s push for another round of sanctions) now declared that it was

dangerous and still grounds for great concern that Iran, in the face of the UN Security Council’s resolutions, continues to refuse to suspend uranium enrichment. . . . The Iranian president’s intolerable agitation against Israel also speaks volumes. . . . It remains a vital interest of the whole world community to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.
As it happened, Hadley was right about the new NIE, which executed another 180-degree turn—this one, away from the judgment of the 2005 NIE concerning the ineffectiveness of international pressure. Flatly contradicting its “high confidence” in 2005 that Iran was forging ahead “despite its international obligations and international pressure,” the new NIE concluded that the nuclear-weapons program had been halted in 2003 “primarily in response to international pressure.” This indicated that “Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.”

Never mind that no international pressure to speak of was being exerted on Iran in 2003, and that at that point the mullahs were more likely acting out of fear that the Americans, having just invaded Iraq, might come after them next. Never mind, too, that religious and/or ideological passions, which the new NIE pointedly neglected to mention, have over and over again throughout history proved themselves a more powerful driving force than any “cost-benefit approach.” Blithely sweeping aside such considerations, the new NIE was confident that just as the carrot-and-stick approach had allegedly sufficed in the past, so it would suffice in the future to “prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear-weapons program.”

The worldview implicit here has been described by Richelson (mainly with North Korea in mind) as the idea that “moral suasion and sustained bargaining are the proven mechanisms of nuclear restraint.” Such a worldview “may be ill-equipped,” he observes delicately,

to accept the idea that certain regimes are incorrigible and negotiate only as a stalling tactic until they have attained a nuclear capability against the United States and other nations that might act against their nuclear programs.
True, the new NIE did at least acknowledge that it would not be easy to induce Iran to extend the halt, “given the linkage many within the leadership probably see between nuclear-weapons development and Iran’s key national-security and foreign-policy objectives.” But it still put its money on a

combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways.
It was this pronouncement, and a few others like it, that gave Stephen Hadley “grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically.” But that it was a false hope was demonstrated by the NIE itself. For if Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in order to achieve its “key national-security and foreign-policy objectives,” and if those objectives explicitly included (for a start) hegemony in the Middle East and the destruction of the state of Israel, what possible “opportunities” could Tehran be offered to achieve them “in other ways”?





_____________



So much for the carrot. As for the stick, it was no longer big enough to matter, what with the threat of military action ruled out, and what with the case for a third round of sanctions undermined by the impression stemming from the NIE’s main finding that there was nothing left to worry about. Why worry when it was four years since Iran had done any work toward developing the bomb, when the moratorium remained in effect, and when there was no reason to believe that the program would be resumed in the near future?2

What is more, in continuing to insist that the Iranians must be stopped from developing the bomb and that this could be done by nonmilitary means, the Bush administration and its European allies were lagging behind a new consensus within the American foreign-policy establishment that had already been forming even before the publication of the new NIE. Whereas the old consensus was based on the proposition that (in Senator John McCain’s pungent formulation) “the only thing worse than bombing Iran was letting Iran get the bomb,” the emerging new consensus held the opposite—that the only thing worse than letting Iran get the bomb was bombing Iran.

What led to this reversal was a gradual loss of faith in the carrot-and-stick approach. As one who had long since rejected this faith and who had been excoriated for my apostasy by more than one member of the foreign-policy elites, I never thought I would live to see the day when these very elites would come to admit that diplomacy and sanctions had been given a fair chance and that they had accomplished nothing but to buy Iran more time.3 The lesson drawn from this new revelation was, however, a different matter.

It was in the course of a public debate with one of the younger members of the foreign-policy establishment that I first chanced upon the change in view. Knowing that he never deviated by so much as an inch from the conventional wisdom of the moment within places like the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution, I had expected him to defend the carrot-and-stick approach and to attack me as a warmonger for contending that bombing was the only way to stop the mullahs from getting the bomb. Instead, to my great surprise, he took the position that there was really no need to stop them in the first place, since even if they had the bomb they could be deterred from using it, just as effectively as the Soviets and the Chinese had been deterred during the cold war.

Without saying so in so many words, then, my opponent was acknowledging that diplomacy and sanctions had proved to be a failure, and that there was no point in pursuing them any further. But so as to avoid drawing the logical conclusion—namely, that military action had now become necessary—he simply abandoned the old establishment assumption that Iran must at all costs be prevented from developing nuclear weapons, adopting in its place the complacent idea that we could learn to live with an Iranian bomb.

In response, I argued that deterrence could not be relied upon with a regime ruled by Islamofascist revolutionaries who not only were ready to die for their beliefs but cared less about protecting their people than about the spread of their ideology and their power. If the mullahs got the bomb, I said, it was not they who would be deterred, but we.

So little did any of this shake my opponent that I came away from our debate with the grim realization that the President’s continued insistence on the dangers posed by an Iranian bomb would more and more fall on deaf ears—ears that would soon be made even deafer by the new NIE’s assurance that Iran was no longer hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons after all. There might be two different ideas competing here—one, that we could live with an Iranian bomb; the other, that there would be no Iranian bomb to live with—but the widespread acceptance of either would not only preclude the military option but would sooner or later put an end even to the effort to stop the mullahs by nonmilitary means.

_____________



And yet there remained something else, or rather someone else, to factor into the equation: the perennially “misunderestimated” George W. Bush, a man who knew evil when he saw it and who had the courage and the determination to do battle against it. This was also a man who, far more than most politicians, said what he meant and meant what he said. And what he had said at least twice before was that if we permitted Iran to build a nuclear arsenal, people fifty years from now would look back and wonder how we of this generation could have allowed such a thing to happen, and they would rightly judge us as harshly as we today judge the British and the French for what they did at Munich in 1938. It was because I had found it hard to understand why Bush would put himself so squarely in the dock of history on this issue if he were resigned to an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons, or even of the ability to build them, that I predicted in these pages, and went on predicting elsewhere, that he would not retire from office before resorting to the military option.

But then came the new NIE. To me it seemed obvious that it represented another ambush by an intelligence community that had consistently tried to sabotage Bush’s policies through a series of damaging leaks and was now trying to prevent him from ever taking military action against Iran. To others, however, it seemed equally obvious that Bush, far from being ambushed, had welcomed the new NIE precisely because it provided him with a perfect opportunity to begin distancing himself from the military option.4

But I could not for the life of me believe that Bush intended to fly in the face of the solemn promise he had made in his 2002 State of the Union address:

We’ll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world’s most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world’s most destructive weapons.
To which he had added shortly afterward in a speech at West Point: “If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long.”

How, I wondered, could Bush not know that in the case of Iran he was running a very great risk of waiting too long? And if he was truly ready to run that risk, why, in a press conference the day after the new NIE came out, did he put himself in the historical dock yet again by repeating what he had said several times before about the judgment that would be passed on this generation in the future if Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon?

If Iran shows up with a nuclear weapon at some point in time, the world is going to say, what happened to them in 2007? How come they couldn’t see the impending danger? What caused them not to understand that a country that once had a weapons program could reconstitute the weapons program? How come they couldn’t see that the important first step in developing a weapon is the capacity to be able to enrich uranium? How come they didn’t know that with that capacity, that knowledge could be passed on to a covert program? What blinded them to the realities of the world? And it’s not going to happen on my watch.
_____________



“It’s not going to happen on my watch.” What else could this mean if not that Bush was preparing to meet “the impending danger” in what he must by now have concluded was the only way it could be averted?

The only alternative that seemed even remotely plausible to me was that he might be fixing to outsource the job to the Israelis. After all, even if, by now, it might have become politically impossible for us to take military action, the Israelis could not afford to sit by while a regime pledged to wipe them off the map was equipping itself with nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. For unless Iran could be stopped before acquiring a nuclear capability, the Israelis would be faced with only two choices: either strike first, or pray that the fear of retaliation would deter the Iranians from beating them to the punch. Yet a former president of Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani, had served notice that his country would not be deterred by the fear of retaliation:

If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in its possession, . . . application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel, but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.
If this was the view of even a supposed moderate like Rafsanjani, how could the Israelis depend upon the mullahs to refrain from launching a first strike? The answer was that they could not. Bernard Lewis, the leading contemporary authority on the culture of the Islamic world, has explained why:

MAD, mutual assured destruction, [was effective] right through the cold war. Both sides had nuclear weapons. Neither side used them, because both sides knew the other would retaliate in kind. This will not work with a religious fanatic [like Ahmadinejad]. For him, mutual assured destruction is not a deterrent, it is an inducement. We know already that [the mullahs ruling Iran] do not give a damn about killing their own people in great numbers. We have seen it again and again. In the final scenario, and this applies all the more strongly if they kill large numbers of their own people, they are doing them a favor. They are giving them a quick free pass to heaven and all its delights.
Under the aegis of such an attitude, even in the less extreme variant that may have been held by some of Ahmadinejad’s colleagues among the regime’s rulers, mutual assured destruction would turn into a very weak reed. Understanding that, the Israelis would be presented with an irresistible incentive to preempt—and so, too, would the Iranians. Either way, a nuclear exchange would become inevitable.

What would happen then? In a recently released study, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues that Rafsanjani had it wrong. In the grisly scenario Cordesman draws, tens of millions would indeed die, but Israel—despite the decimation of its civilian population and the destruction of its major cities—would survive, even if just barely, as a functioning society. Not so Iran, and not its “key Arab neighbors,” particularly Egypt and Syria, which Cordesman thinks Israel would also have to target in order “to ensure that no other power can capitalize on an Iranian strike.” Furthermore, Israel might be driven in desperation to go after the oil wells, refineries, and ports in the Gulf.

“Being contained within the region,” writes Martin Walker of UPI in his summary of Cordesman’s study, “such a nuclear exchange might not be Armageddon for the human race.” To me it seems doubtful that it could be confined to the Middle East. But even if it were, the resulting horrors would still be far greater than even the direst consequences that might follow from bombing Iran before it reaches the point of no return.

In the worst case of this latter scenario, Iran would retaliate by increasing the trouble it is already making for us in Iraq and by attacking Israel with missiles armed with non-nuclear warheads but possibly containing biological and/or chemical weapons. There would also be a vast increase in the price of oil, with catastrophic consequences for every economy in the world, very much including our own. And there would be a deafening outcry from one end of the earth to the other against the inescapable civilian casualties. Yet, bad as all this would be, it does not begin to compare with the gruesome consequences of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, even if those consequences were to be far less extensive than Cordesman anticipates.

Which is to say that, as between bombing Iran to prevent it from getting the bomb and letting Iran get the bomb, there is simply no contest.

_____________



But this still does not answer the question of who should do the bombing. Tempting as it must be for George Bush to sit back and let the Israelis do the job, there are considerations that should give him pause. One is that no matter what he would say, the whole world would regard the Israelis as a surrogate for the United States, and we would become as much the target of the ensuing recriminations both at home and abroad as we would if we had done the job ourselves.

To make matters worse, the indications are that it would be very hard for the Israeli air force, superb though it is, to pull the mission off. Thus, an analysis by two members of the Security Studies Program at MIT concluded that while “the Israeli air force now possesses the capability to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence,” the problem is that for the mission to succeed, all of the many contingencies involved would have to go right. Hence an Israeli attempt could end with the worst of all possible outcomes: retaliatory measures by the Iranians even as their nuclear program remained unscathed. We, on the other hand, would have a much bigger margin of error and a much better chance of setting their program back by a minimum of five or ten years and at best wiping it out altogether.

The upshot is that if Iran is to be prevented from becoming a nuclear power, it is the United States that will have to do the preventing, to do it by means of a bombing campaign, and (because “If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long”) to do it soon.

When I first predicted a year or so ago that Bush would bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities once he had played out the futile diplomatic string, the obstacles that stood in his way were great but they did not strike me as insurmountable. Now, thanks in large part to the new NIE, they have grown so formidable that I can only stick by my prediction with what the NIE itself would describe as “low-to-moderate confidence.” For Bush is right about the resemblance between 2008 and 1938. In 1938, as Winston Churchill later said, Hitler could still have been stopped at a relatively low price and many millions of lives could have been saved if England and France had not deceived themselves about the realities of their situation. Mutatis mutandis, it is the same in 2008, when Iran can still be stopped from getting the bomb and even more millions of lives can be saved—but only provided that we summon up the courage to see what is staring us in the face and then act on what we see.

Unless we do, the forces that are blindly working to ensure that Iran will get the bomb are likely to prevail even against the clear-sighted determination of George W. Bush, just as the forces of appeasement did against Churchill in 1938. In which case, we had all better pray that there will be enough time for the next President to discharge the responsibility that Bush will have been forced to pass on, and that this successor will also have the clarity and the courage to discharge it. If not—God help us all—the stage will have been set for the outbreak of a nuclear war that will become as inescapable then as it is avoidable now.

Ustwo 04-12-2008 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by powerclown
I can only hope the next President of the United States deal more effectively than the current one to contain the threat of a nuclear armed religious theocracy.

:thumbsup:

Agreed, Bush dropped the ball on this one.

roachboy 04-12-2008 02:27 PM

a norman podhoretz editorial from commentary powerclown?

commentary:
Quote:

Commentary is America’s premier monthly magazine of opinion and a pivotal voice in American intellectual life. Since its inception in 1945, and increasingly after it emerged as the flagship of neoconservatism in the 1970’s, the magazine has been consistently engaged with several large, interrelated questions: the fate of democracy and of democratic ideas in a world threatened by totalitarian ideologies; the state of American and Western security; the future of the Jews, Judaism, and Jewish culture in Israel, the United States, and around the world; and the preservation of high culture in an age of political correctness and the collapse of critical standards.
this is why it is customary to cite sources.

as for the article, in order to get it's shabby logic up and running, our boy norman has to rely on pushing buttons the consensus of which is entirely limited to the manly-man but information-scarce neo-con set.

podhoretz's piece relies on a series of rhetorica flourishes to claim credibility for information that is in fact disputed at every point.

because it amuses me, i'll bite them and put them in a little row:

Up until a fairly short time ago, scarcely anyone dissented
Correlatively, no one believed the protestations
The reason for this near-universal consensus
And just as everyone agreed
To begin with, Iran was (as certified even by the doves of the State Department) the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world
Nor, as almost everyone also agreed,
Although, to be sure, no one imagined that Iran would acquire the capability to destroy the United States, it was easy to imagine that
Running alongside the near-universal consensus
was a commensurately broad agreement

all in the first section.
methinks me doth protest too much.

then the article begins, which is basically an entirely partisan argument based on flimsy information, contestable at EVERY point, buttressed only by this rhetorical hand-waving, that the americans should undertake the insane and worse not-doable campaign of bombing iran.


problem with all this is reality.
well that and the recent history of consequences that derive from actions launched that are rooted in the neo-con reality problem.

host 04-12-2008 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy
a norman podhoretz editorial from commentary powerclown?

Ahhh, yes...the CIA's maestro of the "mighy Wurlitzer", Norman Podhoretz, later of the Neo-con ...."der homeland" fame.....

..."weighs in" to "support powerclown's opinion:


Quote:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&s...om&btnG=Search
Reason Magazine - Cold WarriorWhat many didn't know was that the CIA displayed considerable enlightenment in funding the Congress for Cultural Freedom, which included a menu of Europe ...
www.reason.com/news/show/33597.html - 21k - Cached - Similar pages

Quadrant Magazine... at a splendid celebration of Norman Podhoretz's twenty-five brilliant and ... in the mid-sixties, of CIA funding of the Congress for Cultural Freedom ...
quadrant.org.au/php/archive_details_list.php?article_id=869 - 16k - Cached - Similar pages

My Love Affair with America: The Cautionary Tale of a Cheerful ... - Google Books Resultby Norman Podhoretz - 2000 - Political Science - 256 pages
In 1967, when the CIA's sponsorship of the Congress for Cultural Freedom would be exposed, the debates triggered by the resulting scandal would provide an ...
books.google.com/books?isbn=0743205766...

An Unholy AllianceHer husband, Norman Podhoretz,also a member of CPD and CFW, ... associated with the now-defunct Congress for Cultural Freedom,the major US post-war cultural ...
www.wcml.org.uk/internat/leveller52.htm - 20k - Cached - Similar pages

JSTOR: Anticommunism, Anti-Anticommunism, and Anti-Anti-AnticommunismThe Liberal Conspiracy: The Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Struggle for the .... Irving Howe, Norman Podhoretz, Les- lie Fiedler, and Sidney Hook. ...
links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0048-7511(199009)18%3A3%3C406%3AAAAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P - Similar pages

<h2>CIA and the Press: The Mighty Wurlitzer</h2> Peter Coleman, The Liberal Conspiracy: The Congress for Cultural Freedom and the .... Norman Podhoretz Dan Rather Stephen S. Rosenfeld A. M. Rosenthal ...
www.geocities.com/capitolhill/8425/CIAPRESS.HTM



Back on 12-24, I posted this question and this articel:
Quote:

http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showpos...7&postcount=14
<h3>Can anyone recall, or post an example of when the US mainland was ever commonly, or familiarly referred to frequently, before these guys, as "the homeland"? </h3>

Quote:

http://www.villagevoice.com/news/034...g,47830,1.html
The Widening Crusade
Bush's War Plan Is Scarier Than He's Saying
by Sydney H. Schanberg
October 15 - 21, 2003

.....yet if the Bush White House is going to use its preeminent military force to subdue and neutralize all "evildoers" and adversaries everywhere in the world, the American public should be told now. Such an undertaking would be virtually endless and would require the sacrifice of enormous blood and treasure.

With no guarantee of success. And no precedent in history for such a crusade having lasting effect......

...For those who would dispute the assertion that the Bush Doctrine is a global military-based policy and is not just about liberating the Iraqi people, it's crucial to look back to the policy's origins and examine its founding documents.

The Bush Doctrine did get its birth push from Iraq—specifically from the outcome of the 1991 Gulf war, when the U.S.-led military coalition forced Saddam Hussein's troops out of Kuwait but stopped short of toppling the dictator and his oppressive government. The president then was a different George Bush, the father of the current president. The father ordered the military not to move on Baghdad, saying that the UN resolution underpinning the allied coalition did not authorize a regime change. Dick Cheney was the first George Bush's Pentagon chief. He said nothing critical at the time, but apparently he came to regret the failure to get rid of the Baghdad dictator.

A few years later, in June 1997, a group of neoconservatives formed an entity called the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) and issued a Statement of Principles. "The history of the 20th Century," the statement said, "should have taught us that it is important to shape circumstances before crises emerge, and to meet threats before they become dire." One of its formal principles called for a major increase in defense spending "to carry out our global responsibilities today." Others cited the "need to strengthen our ties to democratic allies and to challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values" and underscored "America's unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, our prosperity and our principles." This, the statement said, constituted "a Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity."

Among the 25 signatories to the PNAC founding statement were Dick Cheney, I. Lewis Libby (Cheney's chief of staff), Donald Rumsfeld (who was also defense secretary under President Ford), and Paul Wolfowitz (Rumsfeld's No. 2 at the Pentagon, who was head of the Pentagon policy team in the first Bush presidency, reporting to Cheney, who was then defense secretary). Obviously, this fraternity has been marinating together for a long time. Other signers whose names might ring familiar were Elliot Abrams, Gary Bauer, William J. Bennett, Jeb Bush, <h3>and Norman Podhoretz</h3>.

Three years and several aggressive position papers later—in September 2000, just two months before George W. Bush, the son, was elected president—the PNAC put military flesh on its statement of principles with a detailed 81-page report, <a href="http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf">"Rebuilding America's Defenses."</a> The report set several "core missions" for U.S. military forces, which included maintaining nuclear superiority, expanding the armed forces by 200,000 active-duty personnel, and "repositioning" those forces "to respond to 21st century strategic realities."

The most startling mission is described as follows: "Fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars." The report depicts these potential wars as "large scale" and "spread across [the] globe."

Another escalation proposed for the military by the PNAC is to "perform the 'constabulary' duties associated with shaping the security environment in critical regions."

As for homeland security, the PNAC report says: "Develop and deploy global missile defenses <h3>to defend the American homeland</h3> and American allies, and to provide a secure basis for U.S. power projection around the world. Control the new 'international commons' of space and 'cyberspace,' and pave the way for the creation of a new military service—U.S. Space Forces—with the mission of space control."

Perhaps the eeriest sentence in the report is found on page 51: "The process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, <h3>absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event—like a new Pearl Harbor."....</h3>


Quote:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...=&pagewanted=2
By WILLIAM J. BROAD AND JUDITH MILLER
Published: January 28, 1999

....The Federal Bureau of Investigation, Mr. Nojeim said, already has the money, authority and manpower to handle such crises.

But Fred C. Ikle, an Under Secretary of Defense in the Reagan Administration, applauded finding ways for the military to deal better with terrorism on American soil.

''Only the armed services have the managerial and logistical capabilities to mount the all-out defensive effort,'' Dr. Ikle said in a report on homeland defense being prepared for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private policy group in Washington.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...=&pagewanted=2
China Syndrome; Seeing Beyond Spies Is the Hard Part

By TIM WEINER
Published: March 14, 1999

....But how real is that threat? China's nuclear arsenal is not much more potent than America's was when Chairman Mao took charge 50 years ago and American deterrent power is overwhelming. China has perhaps two dozen weapons capable of striking the American homeland....


http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...=&pagewanted=3
Get Ready, Here Comes the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle

By PETER MAASS
Published: September 26, 1999
These are what the Pentagon calls ''homeland threats,'' a phrase echoing from the 1950's and 1960's, when fallout shelters and duck-and-cover drills were the rage. The millennial makeover of homeland defense does not mean arming the citizens of Santa Monica with revolvers to repel Communist frogmen. The Pentagon, along with the F.B.I. and C.I.A. and Justice Department, among other agencies, is increasing its focus on combating terrorism, cyber attacks, germ warfare, biological warfare, suitcase nuclear bombs, ICBM's -- the works.


http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...=&pagewanted=2
McCain Calls for Overhaul Of National Security Policy

By ALISON MITCHELL
Published: December 8, 1999

....In His Own Words: JOHN McCAIN

Remarks about defense policy prepared for delivery here last night aboard the aircraft carrier Intrepid:


''I have spoken before about the unique 'unipolar moment' in world affairs for the United States and the necessity to extend this period of American pre-eminence for as long as we possibly can. In a remarkably changed world, and on the eve of the next American century, our core strategic interests, like our founding ideals, remain constant: protecting our <h3>homeland</h3> and hemisphere from external threats; preventing the domination of Europe by a single power; strengthening our alliances; securing access to energy resources; and sustaining stability in the Pacific Rim.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...52C0A9669C8B63
Military Terrorism Operation Has a Civilian Focus

By ELIZABETH BECKER
Published: January 9, 2000

Originally, the Pentagon contemplated creating a commander in chief for the defense of the United States -- a ''homeland defense command,'' in military shorthand. Civil rights groups of all political persuasions knocked down that idea out of fear that it would open the door to an increase in the military's influence inside the country.


http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...=&pagewanted=2
Gore, on a Personal Note, and Bush, Less So, Pay Homage to the Nation's War Dead

By JAMES DAO WITH FRANK BRUNI
Published: May 30, 2000
Mr. Bush reiterated his own position in a context of a general plea for strengthening the country's armed forces.

''Those who man the lighthouse of freedom ask little of our nation in return,'' he said. ''But what they ask, our nation must provide: a military of high morale, a military that's well paid and well housed, a military well prepared and well equipped, a military respected by those in authority, a military that's got a coherent vision of America's duties -- a clear military mission in a time of crisis -- and a modern defense system aimed to protect our <h3>homeland</h3> and to protect our allies.''

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...50C0A9669C8B63
Clinton Enters Confederate Flag Debate

By MARC LACEY
Published: March 30, 2000


Mr. Verdin believes passionately in his cause. ''Any so-called 'compromise' would be dishonoring to the 20,000 plus South Carolinians who gave their lives for the cause and dishonoring to the more than 75,000 others who defended hearth and <H3>homeland</h3> from ruthless and barbarous invaders without giving their lives for the cause,'' he said in a memo on his Web site.


http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...51C0A9679C8B63
Bush Warns Against 'Overdeployment'

By STEVEN LEE MYERS
Published: February 15, 2001
President Bush said today that he would send American forces overseas more judiciously, warning that ''overdeployments'' strained troops, their families and, in the case of members of the National Guard and Reserves, their civilian employers.

''I'm worried that we're trying to be all things to all people around the world,'' Mr. Bush told a group of those employers in a meeting today at the headquarters of the West Virginia National Guard in Charleston.

Mr. Bush, who often warned in last year's presidential campaign that proliferating peacekeeping and humanitarian operations were sapping the military, said his administration would not precipitously withdraw from operations already under way, like those in Bosnia and Kosovo.

He pledged, however, to redefine the military's mission so that the armed services ''trained and prepared to fight and win war and, therefore, prevent war from happening in the first place.''

He also said he intended to focus the mission of the National Guard on <H3>''homeland defense''</H3> against terrorist attacks -- a recent recommendation of a panel on national security headed by two former senators, Gary Hart and Warren B. Rudman.

THEN, FOR THE THREE WEEKS AFTER 9/11...IT WAS ALL "HOMELAND", ALL OF THE TIME!
Quote:

http://query.nytimes.com/search/quer...25&submit.y=10

A NATION CHALLENGED: HOMELAND SECURITY; Bush Chooses Old Ally For Cabinet-Level Post
President Bush tonight chose Governor...head a new Office of Homeland Security. Governor...governor, was one of Mr. Bush's leading candidates...overhaul, prompted many Bush supporters to see him...NATION CHALLENGED: HOMELAND SECURITY

September 21, 2001 - By CHRISTOPHER MARQUIS - U.S. - 639 words
A NATION CHALLENGED: HOMELAND SECURITY; New Office to Become a White House Agency
The Office of Homeland Security announced by President Bush after the Sept...15, President Bush announced that...House Office of Homeland Security. But...President Bush said today. Tonight...Mr. Ridge, as homeland security adviser...

September 28, 2001 - By ELIZABETH BECKER and TIM WEINER - U.S. - 1084 words
A Nation Challenged
...is taking another look at the Bush administration's anti-terrorism...Presidents Bill Clinton, George Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald R...SECURITY OFFICE -- The office of homeland security announced by President Bush will be elevated to a new White...

September 28, 2001 - New York and Region - 994 words
How to Protect the Homeland
...to action, despite President Bush's decision to name Gov. Tom...Pennsylvania to head a new Office of Homeland Defense. By using the rhetoric...the terror attacks, President Bush has marshaled the public's...be a mistake if the Office of Homeland Defense merely added another...

September 25, 2001 - By Joseph S. Nye - Opinion - 688 words
The Home Front; Tom Ridge's Task
...America. That is why President Bush is creating the cabinet-level Office of Homeland Security under the direction...preside over so-called homeland security forces -- creating...departments into a National Homeland Security Agency that would...

September 23, 2001 - Opinion - 537 words
Liberties; Old Ruses, New Barbarians
...that the U.S. should have a homeland defense plan. This week, when Bush diplomats should have been riveted...theology, it will be hard for the Bush crowd to engender the trust...senators last Thursday, Mr. Bush asked, What's the sense of...

September 19, 2001 - By MAUREEN DOWD - Opinion - 716 words
Race for Governor of Pennsylvania Gets Even Harder to Call
...has been a difficult contest to read from the start. And President Bush compounded that difficulty Thursday night when he tapped Gov. Tom Ridge to head the new Office of Homeland Security. Until then, two Republicans and two Democrats were vying...

September 23, 2001 - By B. DRUMMOND AYRES Jr. - U.S. - 739 words
A NATION CHALLENGED: THE APPOINTEE -- Man in the News; Rising Star in Crucial Job -- Tom Ridge
...Washington on Thursday when President Bush, in his address to a joint...director of the Office of Homeland Security, where he will coordinate...Flyers hockey game watched Mr. Bush's speech on huge TV screens...Party, was said to be Mr. Bush's choice of running mate...

September 22, 2001 - By SARA RIMER - U.S. - 1124 words
The Way We Live Now: 9-30-01: On Language; Words At War
...tire, falter and fail.) The Bush speech showed a heightened concern...words not chosen. For example, Bush castigated the power-seeking...noun that was not there in the Bush address to Congress was defense...phrase in Washington today, homeland defense. The earliest citation...

September 30, 2001 - By William Safire - Magazine - 975 words
A NATION CHALLENGED: THE BIOLOGICAL THREAT; Nation's Civil Defense Could Prove to Be Inadequate Against a Germ or Toxic Attack
...some of the most dangerous weapons of mass destruction. Many experts approve of President Bush's decision to appoint a cabinet secretary for Homeland Security, calling it an important step toward protecting civilians against terrorist arms...

September 23, 2001 - By WILLIAM J. BROAD and MELODY PETERSEN - Science - 1227 words

<h3>Page 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next » </h3>
Isn't it at least something to think about, to ask questions about.....that the most prominent display of the word "homeland".... not in reference to a foreign place, was in the PNAC manifesto....there are no quotes of Clinton or Gore using the word to refer to the US, that I can find, during their 1993 to 2001 term, and almost no reference of the word in news reports, except by George Bush and John McCain in their 2000 campaigns.....but only very infrequently.....but from Sept. 12, 2001, to the end of that month, use of the word by Bush exploded into a cabinet level department.....it appeared in a matter of days.....with it's shiny PNAC name!!!

We can show that you've been conned powerclown....by neo-cons. Why not be man enough to admit it, instead of sharing a Podehertz rant?

Willravel 04-12-2008 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Powerclown
I can only hope the next President of the United States deal more effectively than the current one to contain the threat of a nuclear armed religious theocracy.

This thread is about Iran, not Israel.

Ustwo 04-12-2008 04:03 PM

Bah, fuck it, glass parking lot for the thread, I'm out.

reconmike 04-12-2008 08:54 PM

Homeland was refered to by Slick Willie, only it was a reference to what was behind his zipper, ya know like "come on Monica the homeland needs a little attention".

host 04-13-2008 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reconmike
Homeland was refered to by Slick Willie, only it was a reference to what was behind his zipper, ya know like "come on Monica the homeland needs a little attention".

reconmike, powerclown, Ustwo....how do you know what you know? You were wrong about WMD, about al Qaeda being in Iraq with Saddam's "approval", "before we got there"....wrong about Iran's "ongoing" nuclear weapons development program.... why don't these "setbacks" trigger any reticence, any reflection about your political opinions?

Aren't people going to die, avoidably, and for no fucking reason, when your wrong? Doesn't that matter to you, even if those killed are American troops?

You've forged quite a reputation on this forum, because of the absurdity of your positions, yet you evidently see no need to seriously back them up, except of course for eye rolling, emotional theatrics, snide, one line drive by posts, and Clinton pee pee jokes.

What's Bush's "saying"....? "Fool me once....shame on...we won't get fooled again". Yet he fools you....a fool fooling you...time after time....and you clamor for more....why?

Could the US treasury be in more dire financial straits, could the US military be more hollowed out....would more Americans be dead, would more middle easterners be dead, would US relations with the rest of the world be worse, had Bush done nothing since 9/11? He's done all of it with your blessings. I never forget that, when I read your posts....do you ever forget that?

Are US troops or citizens, "safer" when they are captured now, by US adversaries, or when the US respected the Geneva convention clauses and did not torture? Are there less foreigners today with deep greivances against the US, than there were on 9/12/01? Could it be conceivable that there are hundreds of thousands of addtional foreign folk with deep seated greivances against the US today, than there were in 2001?

What are your goals? What do you want for the US? What part of them has "Bush team" accomplished?

Quote:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/...nians-wer.html
U.S.: Iranians 'Were a Heartbeat From Being Blown Up'

January 07, 2008 12:57 PM

Jonathan Karl Reports:

The standoff between three U.S. Navy ships and five Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday was one step away from turning violent.

"They were a heartbeat from being blown up," a Pentagon official, speaking of the Iranians, told ABC News.

According to the Navy intelligence report on the incident, the Iranians radioed, "I am coming at you. You will blow up in a couple of minutes."

The Navy ships radioed back, presumably transmitting a warning. All three ships also engaged in "evasive action," and according to senior Pentagon officials, the "prepare-to-fire" order had been given and the gun stations manned.

Pentagon officials today expressed surprise the Navy ships allowed at least one of the Iranian speedboats to get so close -- just 200 yards away -- without firing.

They say at least one of those speedboats boasted a machine gun, and all were behaving as if they were packed with explosives.

A Navy official told ABC News that while there have been similar incidents in the Gulf, Sunday's differed because of the "aggressive actions" taken by the Iranians.

"I've never seen a provocation like this is in international waters," another military official who has served for more than 25 years said.

The White House seconded that notion.

"We urge the Iranians to refrain from such provocative actions that could lead to dangerous incidents in the future," White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said.

Published reports cite the Iranian Foreign Ministry as confirming the incident but calling it "ordinary."....
Quote:

Press Gaggle by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and Press ...
Jan 9, 2008 ... HADLEY: This was a serious incident, and it almost involved an exchange of fire between our forces and Iranian forces. ...
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea.../20080109.html

President Bush and Prime Minister Olmert Participate in Joint ...
We have made it clear publicly, and they know our position, and that is, there will be serious consequences if they attack our ships, pure and simple. ...
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea...0080109-4.html

http://www.voanews.com/persian/archi...TOKEN=82118255

News and Views January 11 reported that Iran aired a new tape meant to reinforce Tehran’s argument that the incident between Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrols and US warships on Sunday was a “normal inspections of vessels,” not a hostile act. In an exclusive interview with PNN, Commander Lydia Robertson, spokesperson for the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, said the fast boats – highly maneuverable patrol craft – were “visibly armed” and began aggressive maneuvers against the three American ships, steaming in formation into the Persian Gulf.....
<h3>VS. REALITY:</h3>
Quote:

DefenseLink News Transcript: DoD News Briefing with Vice Adm ...
Jan 7, 2008 ... And I didn't get the sense from the reports I was receiving that there was a sense of being afraid of these five boats. ...

...The behavior of the Iranian ships was, in my estimation, unnecessary, without due regard for safety of navigation and unduly provocative in the sense of the aggregate of their maneuvers, the radio call and the dropping of objects in the water......

....Q Admiral, Jim Miklaszewski with NBC.

At any time, <h3>did any of the crew members radio to these five boats, warning that they could come under fire?</h3> And given the experience of the suicide bombing on the USS Cole, why did not any of these ships at least fire warning shots?

ADM. COSGRIFF: I think that without getting into the specifics of our tactics, it's fair for you and your readers and listeners to assume that we do have procedures that are measured. They are escalatory. Radio calls were made from the U.S. warships. They were not heeded. The ships were stepping through the procedures, including increased readiness, onboard readiness. It is the judgment of the commanding officer, in the totality of the situation, what the next step is to take and when to take it. <h3>In this case, the commanding officers did not believe they needed to fire warning shots. </h3>
Indeed, I should also say, this happened fairly quickly. So the time from when you might consider a radio call, to maybe some additional measures up to but before warning shots, transpired fairly quickly. But again they followed the procedures to the letter, and <h3>it was their judgment in the totality of the information they had in the situation, that warning shots were not necessary.</h3>
.......
http://www.defenselink.mil/transcrip...nscriptid=4116

Iranian Boats May Not Have Made Radio Threat, Pentagon Says
Jan 11, 2008 ... "No one in the military has said that the transmission emanated from those boats. But when they hear it simultaneously to the behavior of ...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...000692_pf.html

Iran Shows Its Own Video of Vessels’ Encounter in Gulf - New York ...
Jan 11, 2008 ... Pentagon officials said they could not rule out that the broadcast had come from shore, or from another ship nearby. They said it might have ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/wo...muz.html?fta=y
Quote:

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/01/navy...an-speed-boats
Navy commanders detail incident with Iranian speed boats

U.S. Navy Captain David Adler, right, and Commander Jeffery James, left, at the U.S. Navy base in Manama, Bahrain, on Sunday. (Hasan Jamali | AP)

By Steve Stone
The Virginian-Pilot
© January 14, 2008

..."We saw Iranian flags on at least one," Adler said. And one had what appeared to be a weapons mount but "it was just too far away to tell" if there was a weapon on it...

.....The packages were placed in the water alongside the warships and ahead of them.

"I saw them float by," Adler said. "They didn't look that threatening to me."

Meanwhile, "We were going through our pre-planned response and our measured, very disciplined responses trying to warn them off before we had to take any lethal action," James said. "And, fortunately for everybody involved, <h3>they turned outbound before we got to the point where we needed to open fire."...</h3>
More Official US "Iran bashing":
Quote:

Then there was the Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP) story of Iranians supplying Shia militias with especially lethal IEDs which the military and intelligence community pitched to credulous journalists. On February 10, 2007, Michael Gordon came out with the first of several pieces at the New York Times which were notable for their anonymous sourcing and unsubstantiated claims. These articles were heavily criticized in the blogosphere but it didn't stop Gordon from revisiting the subject on March 27, 2007 and August 8, 2007 and recycling many of the previous charges.
....<h3>In Gordon's original piece the accusation was made that the smuggling of EFPs into Iraq was "approved by Supreme Leader Khamenei and carried out by the Quds Force." This claim quickly fell apart but it did not stop Bush without any additional evidence from asserting</h3> in a February 14, 2007 Valentine's Day presser:

I can say with certainty that the Quds Force, a part of the Iranian government, has provided these sophisticated I.E.D.'s that have harmed our troops . . . And I'd like to repeat, I do not know whether or not the Quds Force was ordered from the top echelons of the government. But my point is, what's worse, them ordering it and it happening, or them not ordering it and its happening?

Blaming the Iranians for American deaths in Iraq provided a useful excuse for Bush's failures there and helped gin up the case for a future conflict with Iran.
<h3>Boys, how many times will the NeoCons manipulate your concern and emotions, your patriotic "fervor"? They can only do it to you if you're already open to it, and you let them.....</h3>

The editor, Bill Keller, and the public editor of the NY Times admit that they willingly allowed themselves to be fooled by Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney concerning justification for invading Iraq. Surely these NY Times staffers are not men of greater integrity, higher principle, than you guys are?
Quote:

February 25, 2007
The Public Editor
Approaching Iran Intelligence With Intelligent Skepticism
By BYRON CALAME

COVERAGE of the American saber- rattling about Iranian intervention in Iraq posed an important test for The New York Times, <h3>given the paper’s discredited pre-war articles about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction.</h3> And it has triggered a rash of complaints from readers who believed The Times was again serving as a megaphone for the White House.

I decided to review The Times’s articles of the past month, focusing on two key aspects of newsroom culture that affect the coverage of intelligence and national security. The degree of skepticism was an obvious choice, given the lack of it during the pre-war embarrassment. The other was the level of editing vigilance reflected in the stories.

This time the issue is whether the Iranian government is providing weapons and support to Shiite militias in Iraq. The Times and other media had frequently mentioned, as early as 2005, the military’s belief that some sophisticated roadside bombs were coming from Iran. By late 2006 these bombs, known as explosively formed penetrators, or E.F.P.’s, were killing a larger number of Americans. The growing death toll caused the commanders in Iraq to call for action.

The problem came front and center early this year after President Bush had authorized raids on Iranian facilities in Iraq in an attempt to confirm and disrupt the suspected flow of E.F.P.’s. When the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, among others, called for an explanation of the raids, the Bush administration promised to provide one shortly. Then a Page 1 story in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/world/middleeast/10weapons.html">The Times on Saturday, Feb. 10</a>, reported an intelligence community consensus that Iran is providing the deadly E.F.P.’s, and offered fresh details. That Sunday in Baghdad, military officials gave an anonymous briefing about the bombs. Later in the week, at a news conference, the president addressed the issue.

The situation closely parallels the pre-war period when The Times prominently reported that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. Deeply shamed when they were not found, the paper <a href="http://nytimes.com/ref/international/middleeast/20040526CRITIQUE.html">publicly acknowledged</a> that its coverage had been “insufficiently qualified or allowed to stand unchallenged.”

Times editors clearly were mindful of the W.M.D. coverage as they pursued the Iranian weapons issue. “W.M.D. has informed everything we’ve done on Iran,” Bill Keller, the executive editor, told me three days after the Baghdad briefing. “We don’t have to tell the reporters to be as skeptical as possible. W.M.D. restored a level of skepticism.”

The skepticism and qualification, for example, were woven into <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/12/world/middleeast/12weapons.html">The Times’s Feb. 12 article</a> about the Baghdad briefing. The result was solid journalism that helped readers sort out the physical evidence — such as captured roadside bombs with serial numbers — from the intelligence assessments based on inferences and deductions.

Consider this healthy skepticism in the third paragraph of the story by James Glanz from Baghdad: “The officials also asserted, without providing direct evidence, that Iranian leaders had authorized smuggling those weapons into Iraq for use against the Americans. The officials said such an assertion was an inference based on general intelligence assessments.”

Qualifications appropriately permeated the article. The unnamed military officials, it said, asserted “without specific evidence that the Iranian security apparatus, called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force controlled delivery of the materials to Iraq. And in a further inference, the officials asserted that the Quds Force, sometimes called the I.R.G.C.- Quds, could be involved only with Iranian government complicity.”

The Times’s in-depth Saturday article laying out details of the E.F.P. issue contained a clear-cut qualification, prominently placed right in the second paragraph: “The assertion of an Iranian role in supplying the device to Shiite militias reflects broad agreement among American intelligence agencies, although officials acknowledge that the picture is not entirely complete.” The story by Michael R. Gordon, the paper’s chief military correspondent, had been in the works for more than two weeks and was published after The Times learned on Friday that the military briefing was scheduled for Sunday, Mr. Keller said.

(Mr. Gordon has become a favorite target of many critical readers, who charge that the paper’s Iran coverage is somehow tainted because he had shared the byline on a flawed Page 1 W.M.D. article. I don’t buy that view, and I think the quality of his current journalism deserves to be evaluated on its own merits.)

While the Saturday scoop relied heavily on anonymous sources from unnamed agencies, the article described an admirable search for those likely to have differing views. It cited interviews with “civilian and military officials from a broad range of government agencies,” and pointed out that group included “some whose agencies have previously been skeptical about the significance of Iran’s role in Iraq.”

One intelligence “assessment” in the Saturday article, however, needed some qualification. “As part of its strategy in Iraq,” the story said, “Iran is implementing a deliberate, calibrated policy — approved by Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei and carried out by the Quds Force. ...” To the extent that the assessment was based on inferences, readers deserved to be reminded of that. And they deserved a clearer sense of the extent to which the “broad agreement” cited high up in the article applied to this specific assessment.

The Times continued to seek reaction to the E.F.P. intelligence from a variety of government officials, turning up <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/13/world/middleeast/13weapons.html">what a Page 1 article on Feb. 13</a> termed a “healthy dose of skepticism.” The next day, President Bush addressed the credibility of the intelligence assessments at a news conference, saying he was certain that factions within the Iranian government had supplied the roadside bombs. But he carefully added: “I do not know whether or not the Quds Force was ordered from the top echelons of the government” — a point made in the lead paragraph of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/world/middleeast/15prexy.html">The Times’s story on Feb. 15</a>.

Editing vigilance on intelligence and national security coverage means dealing with the <a href=""http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/30/opinion/30publiceditor.html>anonymous sourcing</a> that many deem essential to bringing vital issues to light in that murky area. So editors need to ensure that unnamed sources are in a position to know and that any biases are clear to the reporter.

The Times’s most important requirement for anonymous sources — that an editor must know their identity — was followed for Mr. Gordon’s Feb. 10 story. Douglas Jehl, a deputy chief of the Washington bureau and his editor, told me he knew the name of each anonymous source in the article. The story also attempted a generalized explanation of why the officials were willing to talk. I do wish, however, that the article had found a way to comply with the paper’s policy of explaining why sources are allowed to remain unnamed.

The risk that the anonymity masked a policy-driven leak such as those that fed some of The Times’s pre-war W.M.D. coverage was reviewed before the Feb. 10 article was published. In an e-mail, Philip Taubman, the Washington bureau chief, wrote that he asked early on: “Did a tip or information come from the policy echelons of the government, from intelligence agencies, from American commanders and troops in Iraq?” In this case, he said: “Michael Gordon’s coverage started at ground level in Iraq, and has not been based on policy-driven leaks in Washington.”

Failing to reach out for dissenting views was a pre-war shortcoming, The Times has previously acknowledged. So even after Mr. Gordon had “nailed” key parts of the Feb. 10 article, according to Mr. Keller, editors specifically asked him “to talk to places in government that had been skeptical of W.M.D.,” such as the State Department.

Still, editors didn’t make sure all conflicting views were always clearly reported. For example, the article on Mr. Bush’s news conference pointed out that the position of the president — and the similar position taken earlier in the week by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — differed from the suggestion at the Sunday Baghdad briefing that the weapons effort involved top levels of the Iranian government. That story also should have noted, however, that the president’s view on this point differed from the intelligence assessment given readers of the Feb. 10 article.

On balance, The Times’s E.F.P. stories of the past month — especially the carefully qualified Baghdad briefing article — reflected healthy levels of skepticism and editing vigilance. They also showed that it’s possible for coverage not to be totally dictated by government intelligence leaks. And that lesson could serve Times readers well if the administration should ever decide to publicly invoke intelligence assessments in its simmering struggle to restrain Iran’s development of a nuclear capability.

The public editor serves as the readers' representative. His opinions and conclusions are his own. His column appears at least twice monthly in this section.

Willravel 04-13-2008 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by host
reconmike, powerclown, Ustwo....how do you know what you know? You were wrong about WMD, about al Qaeda being in Iraq with Saddam's "approval", "before we got there"....wrong about Iran's "ongoing" nuclear weapons development program.... why don't these "setbacks" trigger any reticence, any reflection about your political opinions?

I'd be very interested in a response to this, actually.

host 04-13-2008 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hanxter
Blah Blah Blah

Just to highlight your contribution to this discussion, or are you sending a message directed at me? I think I have reacted reasonably, at all times, to you. So, what is this about?

Here is Bush at his best, just the other day, threatening Iran, rehashing his "axis of evil" theme, and lumping Iran with al Qaeda, and the attacks on 9/11:

Quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea...0080410-2.html
For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
April 10, 2008

President Bush Discusses Iraq

....The regime in Tehran also has a choice to make. It can live in peace with its neighbor, enjoy strong economic and cultural and religious ties. Or it can continue <h3>to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups</h3>, which are terrorizing the Iraqi people and turning them against Iran. If Iran makes the right choice, America will encourage a peaceful relationship between Iran and Iraq. Iran makes the wrong choice, America will act to protect our interests, and our troops, and our Iraqi partners....

.....Today, we face an enemy that is not only expansionist in its aims, but has actually attacked our homeland -- and intends to do so again. Yet our defense budget accounts for just over 4 percent of our economy -- less than our commitment at any point during the four decades of the Cold War. This is still <h3>a large amount of money, but it is modest -- a modest fraction of our nation's wealth -- and it pales when compared to the cost of another terrorist attack on our people.</h3>

We should be able to agree that this is a burden worth bearing. And we should be able to agree that our national interest require the success of our mission in Iraq.

<h3>Iraq is the convergence point for two of the greatest threats to America in this new century -- al Qaeda and Iran.</h3> If we fail there, al Qaeda would claim a propaganda victory of colossal proportions, and they could gain safe havens in Iraq from which to attack the United States, our friends and our allies. Iran would work to fill the vacuum in Iraq, and our failure would embolden its radical leaders and fuel their ambitions to dominate the region. The Taliban in Afghanistan and al Qaeda in Pakistan would grow in confidence and boldness. And violent extremists around the world would draw <h3>the same dangerous lesson that they did from our retreats in Somalia and Vietnam</h3>. This would diminish our nation's standing in the world, and lead to massive humanitarian casualties, and increase the threat of another terrorist attack on our homeland.

On the other hand, if we succeed in Iraq after all that al Qaeda and Iran have invested there, it would be a historic blow to the global terrorist movement and a severe setback for Iran. <h3>It would demonstrate to a watching world that mainstream Arabs reject the ideology of al Qaeda, and mainstream Shia reject the ideology of Iran's radical regime. It would give America a new partner with a growing economy and a democratic political system in which Sunnis and Shia and Kurds all work together</h3> for the good of their country. And in all these ways, it would bring us closer to our most important goal -- <h3>making the American people safer here at home.</h3>
If President Bush is at all close to accomplishing his "vision", can anyone who supports him and what he says he is doing, answer a few questions?

<h3>Why can the Iranian president preannounce his visit to Iraq, receive an enthusiastic (unprecedented?) official "head of state" welcome from all Iraqi government officials, except sunnis....move from the airport, and around Baghdad with minimal security and in a regular sedan (no armour), stay and sleep outside the green zone, with no US military provided security. Versus, in the same month, Cheney and McCain are observed sneaking into Iraq (no preannouncement of either of their visits)....under extremely tight security...roads pre-swept for IEDs, US troops lining roads, combat helicopters overhead, spending the bulk of their visits in the green zone.....?</h3>

Iran president on landmark Iraq visit - CNN.com
Story Highlights; Ahmadinejad is the first Iranian president to visit Iraq and ... He noted that Iraq has a new government, and is an "independent state." ...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/...jad/index.html - 78k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

McClatchy Washington Bureau | 03/02/2008 | Visit by Iran's ...
Mar 2, 2008 ... BAGHDAD — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday became the first Iranian head of state to visit Iraq in three decades and ...
www.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/story/29212.html - 37k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

President Ahmadinejad of Iran to make first visit to Iraq in March ...
Feb 14, 2008 ... President Ahmadinejad of Iran to make first visit to Iraq in March. ... A State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack, said the United States ...
www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/14/mideast/iraq.php

<h3>Why did Bush accuse Iran</h3> "to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups"....when the following strongly indicates that Bush himself allowed a US designated terrorist organization, "feed" him false information that he continued to repeat to the American public, and let shape his Iran policy, for years?
Quote:

President's Press Conference
March 16, 2005. President's Press Conference .... but because a dissident group pointed it out to the world, and -- which raised suspicions about the ...
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea...0050316-3.html
Quote:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/51715
TERROR WATCH
Michael Isikoff and
Mark Hosenball
Terror Watch: Consider the Source

The State Department says Mek is a terror group. Human rights watch says it's a cult. For the White House, Mek is a source of intelligence on Iran.
May 18, 2005 | Updated: 3:27 p.m. ET Oct 16, 2007

.....Despite the group's notoriety, Bush himself cited purported intelligence gathered by MEK as evidence of the Iranian regime's rapidly accelerating nuclear ambitions. At a March 16 press conference, Bush said Iran's hidden nuclear program had been discovered not because of international inspections but "because a dissident group pointed it out to the world." White House aides acknowledged later that the dissident group cited by the president is the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), one of the MEK front groups added to the State Department list two years ago.

In an appearance before a House International Relations Subcommittee a year ago, John Bolton, the controversial State Department undersecretary who Bush has nominated to become US ambassador to the United Nations, was questioned by a Congressman sympathetic to MEK about whether it was appropriate for the U.S. government to pay attention to allegations about Iran supplied by the group. Bolton said he believed that MEK "qualifies as a terrorist organization according to our criteria." But he added that he did not think the official label had "prohibited us from getting information from them. And I certainly don't have any inhibition about getting information about what's going on in Iran from whatever source we can find that we deem reliable......
Quote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...080101453.html
Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb
U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 2, 2005; Page A01

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that "all options are on the table."

The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program.....
<h3>Why did Bush and Cheney, et al surpress the NIE finding on Iran, for a year, and continue to proclaim the exact opposite of the NIE's conclusions ?</h3>
Quote:

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/12/03/iran-white-house/

<a href="http://thinkprogress.org/2007/12/03/nie-iran/">Despite Knowledge That Iran Halted Nuke Program</a>, White House Continued To Warn Of False Threat»

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released today concludes that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” It adds that “Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007,” and the country is “less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.”

The assessment, which relies on <a href="http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf">data collected through Oct. 31</a>, was <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39978">reportedly completed in 2006</a>, but was blocked by administration officials who wanted it to be more in line with Vice President Cheney’s hardline views.

As The Washington Monthly’s Kevin Drum notes, the NIE’s “basic parameters were almost certainly <a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_12/012623.php">common knowledge in the White House”</a> at least by last year, when the document was finished. Yet even in the past two months, the administration has continued to push its faulty, inflammatory rhetoric and claim that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. Some examples:

“The problem is Iran, and Iran has not stepped back from trying to pursue a nuclear weapon, and — or reprocessing and enriching uranium, which would lead to a nuclear weapon.” [White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/10/20071026-6.html">10/26/07</a>]

“We talked about Iran and the desire to work jointly to convince the Iranian regime to give up their nuclear weapons ambitions, for the sake of peace.” [Bush, <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/11/20071107-5.html">11/7/07</a>]

“We’re in a position now, clearly, especially when we look at Iran, where it’s very, very important we succeed in our efforts, our national security efforts, to discourage the Iranians from enriching uranium and producing nuclear weapons.” [Cheney, <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/11/20071109-11.html">11/9/07</a>]

“We are convinced that they are developing nuclear weapons.” [Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, <a href="http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2007/12/03/iran/index.html">11/13/07</a>]...

...UPDATE: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said, “It would be a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/73362">strategic calamity</a> to attack Iran at this time.”
<h3>Why did Bush administration officials and Foxnews have such close ties to a terrorist organization spokesperson, Alireza Jafarzadeh, a man totally discredited in both the 2005 and 2007 NIEs on Iran?</h3>
Quote:

http://web.archive.org/web/200209301...3579.asp?cp1=1
Ashcroft’s Baghdad Connection
Why the attorney general and others in Washington have backed a terror group with ties to Iraq
By Michael Isikoff
NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE

Sept. 26 (2002)— When the White House released its Sept. 12 “white paper” detailing Saddam Hussein’s “support for international terrorism,” it caused more than a little discomfort in some quarters of Washington.

THE 27-PAGE DOCUMENT—entitled “A Decade of Deception and Defiance”—made no mention of any Iraqi ties to Osama bin Laden. But it did highlight Saddam’s backing of the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO), an obscure Iranian dissident group that has gathered surprising support among members of Congress in past years. One of those supporters, the documents show, is a top commander in President Bush’s war on terrorism: Attorney General John Ashcroft, who became involved with the MKO while a Republican senator from Missouri.

The case of Ashcroft and the MKO shows just how murky fighting terrorism can sometimes get. State Department officials first designated the MKO a “foreign terrorist organization” in 1997, accusing the Baghdad-based group of a long series of bombings, guerilla cross-border raids and targeted assassinations of Iranian leaders. Officials say the MKO—which originally fought to overthrow the Shah of Iran—was linked to the murder of several U.S. military officers and civilians in Iran in the 1970s. “They have an extremely bloody history,” says one U.S. counterterrorism official.

But the MKO, which commands an army of 30,000 from bases inside Iraq, has tried to soften its image in recent years—in part with strong backing from politically active Iranian-Americans in the United States. The MKO operates in Washington out of a small office in the National Press Building under the name the National Council of Resistance of Iran. According to the State Department, the National Council of Resistance is a “front” for the MKO; in 1999, the National Council itself was placed on the State Department terrorist list. But National Council officials adamantly deny their group has earned the terror label and have aggressively portrayed itself to Washington lawmakers as a “democratic” alternative to a repressive Iranian regime that itself is one of the world’s leading sponsors of terrorism. “You’re talking about a really popular movement,” <h3>says Alireza Jafarzadeh, the National Council’s chief Washington spokesman, who insists that the MKO “targets only military targets.”</h3>

Only two years ago, these arguments won sympathy from Ashcroft—and more than 200 other members of Congress. When the National Council of Resistance staged a September 2000 rally outside the United Nations to protest a speech by Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, Missouri’s two Republican senators—Ashcroft and Chris Bond—issued a joint statement of solidarity that was read aloud to a cheering crowd. A delegation of about 500 Iranians from Missouri attended the event—and a picture of a smiling Ashcroft was later included in a color briefing book used by MKO officials to promote their cause on Capitol Hill. Ashcroft was hardly alone. Among those who actually appeared at the rally and spoke on the group’s behalf was one of its leading congressional supporters: Democratic New Jersey Sen. Bob Torricelli.

That same year, Senator Ashcroft wrote a letter to Attorney General Janet Reno protesting the detention of an Iranian woman, Mahnaz Samadi, who was a leading spokeswoman for the National Council of Resistance. The case quickly became a cause celebre for the MKO and its supporters in the United States.
U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service agents had arrested Samadi at the Canadian border, charging her with failing to disclose her past “terrorist” ties as an MKO “military commander”—including spending seven months in a MKO military-training camp inside Iraq—when she sought political asylum in the United States several years earlier, according to court documents obtained by NEWSWEEK.
Senator Ashcroft saw the case differently. In his May 10, 2000, letter to Reno, the Missouri lawmaker expressed “concern” about the detention, calling Samadi a “highly regarded human-rights activist” and a “powerful voice for democracy.” (As part of a later settlement with the INS, Samadi admitted her membership in MKO but denied that she personally participated in any “terrorist activity.” While her grant of political asylum was revoked, the INS dropped its deportation proceedings and she was permitted to remain in the United States.)

<h3>Alireza Jafarzadeh, the National Council’s top Washington lobbyist, said he had “several” meetings with Ashcroft aides</h3> about the matter and that he “certainly” viewed the Missouri senator as a supporter of his group. But backers of the MKO acknowledge the real lobbying was done by Iranian-Americans in Missouri who wrote letters and made repeated phone calls on Samadi’s behalf. How much Ashcroft got personally involved isn’t clear. A Justice Department spokeswoman told NEWSWEEK that Ashcroft’s letter to Reno was the result of a “straightforward, constituent-type inquiry,” adding that the current attorney general would never “knowingly” back any terrorist group. When he signed the joint statement with Bond that was read at the National Council rally at the United Nations, Ashcroft did not “intend to endorse any organization,” the spokeswoman, Barbara Comstock, said. “He was supporting democracy and freedom in Iran,” she said. Comstock said Ashcroft currently has “no problem” prosecuting all U.S.-based terror groups, including the MKO.

Ashcroft isn’t the only one now distancing himself from the MKO. The Senate’s most aggressive promotor of the MKO for years has been Bob Torricelli, who in recent years has circulated numerous letters among his colleagues—including one as recently as last year—describing the MKO as a “legitimate” alternative to the repressive Iranian mullahs and urging that the group be taken off the State Department terrorist list. Torricelli told NEWSWEEK he saw his support for the group as a way of putting pressure on the Iranian regime. “They [the MKO] were the only game in town,” he said. But Torricelli also said last week said he would no longer push the group’s cause after getting hammered over the issue by his GOP opponent, Doug Forrester, who accused Torricelli of receiving more than $100,000 in campaign contributions from Iranian-Americans who supported the group. (Torricelli aides say the amount is exaggerated and that others, including some leading Republicans, have also received contributions from some of the same Iranian-Americans.) As a result of the September 11 attacks and new concerns about any allegations of terrorism, Bond also has put his backing for the group “in abeyance,” an aide said.

Much of the new skittishness among MKO’s congressional backers also stems from the decision by the Bush White House to emphasize the connections between MKO and Saddam. It isn’t the first time this was done. Former Clinton administration official Martin Indyk, who served as assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs in 1997, told NEWSWEEK that one of the reasons the group was put on the terrorism list in the first place was part of a “two-pronged” strategy that included ratcheting up pressure on Saddam. Like the Bush White House, the Clinton administration was eager to highlight Iraqi ties to terrorism and had collected extensive evidence of Saddam providing logistical support to the MKO in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War. (The MKO’s headquarters are located on a heavily guarded street in central Baghdad.) But the United States could find no other hard evidence linking Saddam to terror groups, Indyk said. “That was about all we had on [Saddam] when it came to terrorism,” Indyk told NEWSWEEK.

National-security adviser Condoleezza Rice said in an interview Wednesday on PBS’s “The NewsHour” that the United States had new evidence from “high-ranking detainees” that Iraq has provided “some training to Al Qaeda in chemical-weapons development.” But a top U.S. law-enforcement official recently cast some doubt about the strength of the evidence connecting Saddam and Al Qaeda, telling NEWSWEEK there is far more substantial evidence that Iran was harboring top Al Qaeda leaders.)
The other “prong” in the Clinton strategy that led to the inclusion of the MKO on the terrorist list was White House interest in opening up a dialogue with the Iranian government. At the time, President Khatami had recently been elected and was seen as a moderate. Top administration officials saw cracking down on the MKO—which the Iranians had made clear they saw as a menace—as one way to do so. Still, Indyk said the basic decision to label the MKO as terrorists could be justified anyway. “Yes, they’re bad guys,” he told NEWSWEEK. “But no—they’re not targeting us.”

Indyk’s comments lend partial support to one of the main contentions of MKO and its congressional supporters: that geopolitical strategy—a tilt toward Iran—was an important factor in the State Department decision to accuse MKO of terrorism. “They wanted to appease the Iranian regime,” said Jafarzadeh, the National Council of Resistance lobbyist.
Still, the Justice Department appears only to be stepping up investigations into MKO members. Early last year, the FBI broke up a ring of Iranians who were raising money at the Los Angeles airport under the guise of helping suffering children when, according to a court complaint, they were routing the funds to the MKO. (A federal judge recently tossed the case out of court, but the Justice Department is appealing.) <h3>Then, last December, FBI agents showed up at the home of Jafarzadeh. Armed with a search warrant, the agents hauled away boxes of documents, including files on the group’s dealings with members of Congress. One in particular must have gotten the agents’ attention. It was labeled ASHCROFT. </h3>
<h3>Why is foxnews still employing fomer terrorist organization spokesman, Alireza Jafarzadeh, allowing him to quote the current NCRI spokesman and other MEK terrorists, in a frequent series of articles still regularly published on the foxnews site?</h3>
Quote:

Do YOU think Iran is developing nuclear weapons? - Page 7 - Tilted ...
FNC Foreign Affairs Analyst Alireza Jafarzadeh. FNC Foreign Affairs Analyst ... http://www.newshounds.us/2006/09/02/..._terrorist.php Is FOX News’ Foreign ...
http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showpos...&postcount=248
Alireza Jafarzadeh attempted to refute the newly released 2007 NIE on Iran, with this. He's in the same position, spokesman for the NCRI/MEK/MKO, that he was in for twelve years, before the US closed his DC office...only now he is paid by foxnews to distribute his terrorist organization's propaganda:
Quote:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,...fnc/world/iran
Dissident: Iran's Top Commanders Are Nuclear Weapons Scientists

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

By Sharon Kehnemui Liss

WASHINGTON — Twenty-one commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are the top scientists running Iran's secret nuclear weapons program, says the man who exposed Iran's nuclear weapons program in 2002.

On top of that, the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate published last week saying Tehran shut down its weaponization program in 2003 failed to mention that the program restarted in mid-2004, said Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian dissident and president of Strategic Policy Consulting.

The scientists working on the alleged civilian nuclear centrifuge program are IGRC commanders, said Jafarzadeh, who was providing a list of names to the press on Tuesday. But their intention is not a nuclear energy source for civilians.

"It's the IRGC that is basically controlling the whole thing, dominating the whole thing," Jafarzadeh told FOXNews.com. "They are running the show. They have a number of sites controlled by the IRGC that has been off-limits to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and inspectors, including a military university known as Imam Hossein University. ... That site has not been inspected. They have perhaps the most advanced nuclear research and development center in that university."....
<h3>How can there be any doubt that Alireza Jafarzadeh was and still is a spokesman for a terrorist organization? :</h3>
Quote:

http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/rm/2003/20072.htm
On-the-Record Briefing
Ambassador Cofer Black, Coordinator for Counterterrorism
Remarks at On-the-Record Briefing on the Release of the Annual Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002 report
Washington, DC
April 30, 2003

....QUESTION: What does the State Department think about the ceasefire that was signed between the MEK and the U.S., U.S. CENTCOM, in Iraq?

Since this group is still on the terrorist list, as I understand it, Americans are not supposed to deal with them at all. And that's always been kind of a -- there is a problem in Washington, D.C., because they keep an office open here.

So can you tell me how this squares with the MEK's terrorist status?

AMBASSADOR BLACK: Sure, I'll be happy to, happy to try. The Secretary has recommended that the President determine that the laws that apply to countries that support terrorism no longer apply to Iraq. The President's determination to provide greater flexibility in permitting certain types of trade with and assistance to Iraq; thus, we can treat Iraq like any other country not on the terrorist list.

I think it's important to underscore some facts here. MEK is designated by the U.S. Government as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. This organization mixes Islam and Marxism in their battle to establish what they claim would be a secular state in Iran.

Until the recent war in Iraq, they were allied with the government of Saddam Hussein and received most of their support from this regime. They have assisted the Hussein regime in suppressing opposition within Iraq, and performed internal security for the Iraqi regime. MEK, or as some recently referred to as the People's Mujahedin, has also attacked and killed Americans.

<h3>The MEK and its many aliases, including the political NCRI, are designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.</h3> The United States Government does not negotiate with terrorists. MEK's opposition to the Iranian Government does not change the fact that they are a terrorist organization. We understand the agreement on the ground in the field is a prelude to the group's surrender. Commanders make tactical decisions to end conflict with enemy combatants successfully.

There's a lot of activity in various areas underway in Iraq -- of which this is one -- I would refer you to CENTCOM and their briefers to get better insight to the decision-making and the actions of our commanders, coalition commanders on the ground.

This is a pretty special group. They are a Foreign Terrorist Organization. They are not well liked in Iraq; they could not be put with the general prisoner population. They are following the orders of the coalition commanders, and their situation will be addressed in the coming days and weeks.
<h3>Doesn't the following article demonstrate that the US is guilty of exactly the same thing that Bush accuses Iran of doing:...</h3>"arm and train and fund illegal militant groups" ? Can anyone argue that the US policy is much more estranged from the POV of the Iraqi majority than it is in common with it?

Can you make any case that Bush's opinion and goals are not hypocritcal, contradictory and unrealistic? Witness the cooperation described in the following article, of the US military with a US state dept. designated terrorist organization, an organization unwelcome in Iraq in the opinion of the Iraqi government, so that:
Quote:

....[Mek] have hosted dozens of visitors in an energetic campaign to persuade the State Department to stop designating the group as a terrorist organization.

Now the Iraqi government is intensifying its efforts to evict the 3,800 or so members of the group who live in Iraq, although U.S. officials say they are in no hurry to change their policy toward the MEK, <h3>which has been a prime source of information about Iran's nuclear program.</h3>....
...during a time when Bush or Cheney, or both, as well as those in charge of US intelligence agencies, including Sect'y of Defense Bob Gates, had to know that the "prime source of information about Iran's nuclear program" coming from MEK and NCRI, and from foxnews mouthpiece, Alireza Jafarzadeh, <h3>conflicts with the determinations about Iran contained in both the 2005 and 2007 NIEs.....</h3>

Quote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...301782_pf.html
Iraq Intensifies Efforts to Expel Iranian Group
Though Labeled Terrorist, MEK Has Updated U.S. on Tehran's Nuclear Program

By Ernesto Londoño and Saad al-Izzi
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, March 14, 2007; A10

BAGHDAD -- For three years, thousands of members of a militant group dedicated to overthrowing Iran's theocracy have lived in a sprawling compound north of Baghdad <h3>under the protection of the U.S. military.

American soldiers chauffeur top leaders of the group, known as the Mujaheddin-e Khalq, or MEK, to and from their compound, where they have hosted dozens of visitors in an energetic campaign to persuade the State Department to stop designating the group as a terrorist organization.</h3>

Now the Iraqi government is intensifying its efforts to evict the 3,800 or so members of the group who live in Iraq, although U.S. officials say they are in no hurry to change their policy toward the MEK, <h3>which has been a prime source of information about Iran's nuclear program.</h3>

The Iraqi government announced this week that roughly 100 members would face prosecution for human rights violations, a move MEK officials contend comes at the request of the Iranian government.

"We have documents, witnesses," Jaafar al-Moussawi, a top Iraqi prosecutor, said Monday, alleging that the MEK aided President Saddam Hussein's campaign to crush Shiite and Kurdish opposition movements at the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Moussawi said the criminal complaint would implicate MEK members in "killing, torture, [wrongful] imprisonment and displacement."

The group denied involvement in Hussein's reprisals.

"These allegations are preposterous and lies made by the Iranian mullahs and repeated by their agents," it said in a statement issued this week.

The case highlights the occasional discord between the U.S. and Iraqi governments on matters related to Iran. While the U.S. government has accused Iran of supplying Iraqi Shiite militias with sophisticated weapons that it says have been used to kill American troops, Iraq's Shiite-led government has expanded commercial and diplomatic ties with its majority-Shiite neighbor.

"This organization has always destabilized the security situation" in Iraq, said Mariam Rayis, a top foreign affairs adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, adding that the MEK's continued presence "could lead to deteriorating the relationship with neighboring countries."....

Tully Mars 04-13-2008 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel
I'd be very interested in a response to this, actually.

Good luck with that. So far it seems if the argument to bomb Iran is shown to be completely irrational the next move is to either tap out and call for the thread to be a "glass parking lot" or start making references to Bill getting a BJ.


Not surprised really, if the neo-cons have proved anything it is denial is alive and well.

ottopilot 04-13-2008 06:07 PM

Well isn't this a classic hootenanny ho-down for the TFP Politics board ... both wacky and fortified with wing-nuts.

For all the zany extremes on this argument, it is highly unlikely that issues of such scope and magnitude happen in an absolute vacuum. For as much as some of us would love to pin the blame on singular entities, leaders, and governments, our apparent predicaments are more likely cumulative and complicit by a variety of participants acting seamlessly in the background (or broad daylight) spanning multiple presidential administrations, congress(es), and political parties.

We've been down this road before.

Willravel 04-13-2008 06:09 PM

Oh hey otto, I'm glad you're here. A few posts back Host asked an intriguing question of conservatives that I think a lot of people might be interested in your answering.

roachboy 04-13-2008 06:11 PM

i think i said that too otto, though i can't tell if that means we agree on this or not. maybe it's the last sentence, following on whatever the hell just happened above.

ottopilot 04-13-2008 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel
Oh hey otto, I'm glad you're here. A few posts back Host asked an intriguing question of conservatives that I think a lot of people might be interested in your answering.

Is this a saddistic request for entertainment value? :)

Which post are you referring?


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