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Old 07-11-2007, 03:11 PM   #1 (permalink)
Illusionary
 
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Oh Ye'...of little faith

Are we, as a country so blind as to be fooled by half truths? Are we simply so used to falsehoods, that we are trained to ignore deeper understanding?

I ask this because of the federal deficit. We will soon be told that the deficit has been cut in half again, and we will accept it as a very good thing. Unfortunately what reality tells us is a bit different. The Federal Deficit will be a little over $200 billion this year vs. $400 billion last year.

ITS STILL $200 BILLION IN THE RED

Added to this is another scary reality....most of the savings came from manipulation of the social security fund, and we have to pay it back...to ourselves.


Deficit Falls to $205 Billion
Jul 11 08:52 AM US/Eastern


Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's budget deficit will drop to $205 billion in the fiscal year that ends in September, less than half of what it was at its peak in 2004, according to new White House estimates.

President Bush planned to discuss the figures in an afternoon appearance.

The new figure is considerably smaller than original estimates. In February, the White House predicted that this year's deficit would be $244 billion because of stronger-than-expected revenue collections. The deficit hit a peak of $413 billion in 2004 and was $248 billion last year.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

Quote:
Bush's deficit, call it deficit 'lite', counts borrowing from the 'public' (financial markets) but does not count borrowing from Social Security--which is huge. This ignores the fact that like public debt, Social Security contributions are actually an obligation that must be repaid. Most importantly, those funds should be helping to increase savings and investment in order to provide for the coming retirement of the large "baby-boom" generation. They should not be used for current government expenses
http://zfacts.com/p/519.html

Apparently, he dropped the "lets fix social security" part of his platform.
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Old 07-11-2007, 04:51 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Our government has been playing fast and loose with the US Dollar for a while now, but seems to have gotten pretty bold with it since 9/11. Regardless of tricks like the one you describe or simply how they have been forced to encourage inflation, the math WILL catch up with them. I just can't accurately describe when. Both sides of the aisle have been spending like drunken sailors for years and it has been getting worse.

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A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.
Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic, published in 1776. Sir Alexander Tytler

. . . as far as being blind is concerned, cognitive dissonance is a powerful force. People would like to be "right" more than they want the truth. Helps with political parties, religions and all kinds of things including ignoring simple math. They want to absolve themselves from blame and after this thing blows up be able to tell themselves that they were lied to and it is not their fault. They can do this somehow despite the information they need being RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM.
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Old 07-11-2007, 05:48 PM   #3 (permalink)
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And you don't even mention the fact that lots of spending (like nearly everything for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) isn't even *counted* in these figures.

It's an insane situation.
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:10 PM   #4 (permalink)
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i'm all for reduced spending (more than 99% of those reading this i'll bet) but the situation is not that scary... even at it's WORST in recent history (2004) the budget deficit was only 4% of GDP.

those stronger-than-expected revenues were only unexpected by those who voted against the president's tax cuts. a program that will soon be rescinded by house democrats despite its record performance.

it's not that he "dropped" social security from his platform, it's that the issue was greeted by crickets chirping in the halls of congress. the president was the only one pushing reform and it went nowhere.

it's going to be shock for many in 18 months when they realize a new president won't alleviate all the misery in the world.
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:20 PM   #5 (permalink)
 
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Robot-parade is correct that over $400 billion in emergency supplementals primarly to fund the war since 2003 has been off-budget; with another $100 billion more to come as a result of the latest war funding bill that Bush signed last month. Every president cooks the deficit numbers...but Bush has been a master chef.

But more worrisome than the annual budget deficit is the total federal debt, which was beginning to be`slowly drawn down in the late 90s. Since Bush took office, the federal debt has increased over 50% from $5.6 trillion in 2001 to $8.7 trillion in 2006...with China being the 2nd largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities and OPEC the 4th largest..not our best friends.
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Quote:
Originally Posted by irateplatypus
....those stronger-than-expected revenues were only unexpected by those who voted against the president's tax cuts. a program that will soon be rescinded by house democrats despite its record performance.

it's going to be shock for many in 18 months when they realize a new president won't alleviate all the misery in the world.
irate: Congressional democrats dont have to rescind anything (that is another republican half truth). The 2001 and 2003 tax cut bills passed by the republican-majority Congress and signed by Bush had sunset provisions that end the cuts in 2010.

I dont think anyone is under the illusion that the next president will alleviate all the misery in the world. We can only hope that his/her administration will be less corrupt, more open, less confrontational, and in the context of this discussion, more fiscally responsible.
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Last edited by dc_dux; 07-11-2007 at 08:40 PM..
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:36 PM   #6 (permalink)
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that's the rub... federal debt.

the budget deficit is tame, debt is where the rubber hits the road. like dc_dux pointed out: foreign investment is the most worrisome part of that... should we continue to lower interest rates china may start dumping those dollars at wholesale prices causing uncheckable inflation.
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:56 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tecoyah
ITS STILL $200 BILLION IN THE RED

$200 billion FURTHER in the red.

I don't get to tell my wife "Yeah, I spent too much money this month, but I only spent half as too much money as I did last month."

Why is it OK for the president to tell that to the country?
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:05 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Then there is no way we could have a national health care system, it would put us further in the red.
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Old 07-12-2007, 04:43 AM   #9 (permalink)
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There have been a few threads on this topic in the past.

I do think government spending is out of control, however, the better way (rather than in total dollars) to monitor the deficit and the debt is to look at how these numbers trend relative to GDP and our national wealth on a percentage basis. And since the government can deflate the currency at will (meaning they can theoretically print money to eliminate the debt and the deficit or at least adapt measures to do the same), it is good to look at the cost of dollars in terms of exchange rates and interest rates. There are many factors affecting exchange rates and interest rates and there are cycles, those factors have to be discounted in your analysis.

When I do my analysis, I am not overly concerned currently. The biggest problems we face are with Social Security and Medicare and the trending of government accounting for bigger share of GDP. We can not afford the future costs of these programs, and Washington is doing nothing to fix the problem.
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Old 07-13-2007, 04:21 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3

When I do my analysis, I am not overly concerned currently. The biggest problems we face are with Social Security and Medicare and the trending of government accounting for bigger share of GDP. We can not afford the future costs of these programs, and Washington is doing nothing to fix the problem.
I suppose this is where we differ as I am quite concerned, perhaps its a matter of perspective. I also think Social Security, and healthcare are two of the biggest worries financially, but feel that tapping into SS to make budget numbers look better is likely to make it far worse for my kids (and myself) rather than improve the situation.
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Old 07-13-2007, 07:18 AM   #11 (permalink)
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But by far our biggest spending is on defense. I'm not a big fan of social security of medicare but if I recall correctly, i think defense is really one of the biggest expenditures. But yet, somehow, we still can't afford to arm our troops properly in the field.

There is plenty of waste and Congress is not off the hook either. $250 million bridges in Alaska certainly do not help.
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Old 07-13-2007, 08:19 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jorgelito
But by far our biggest spending is on defense. I'm not a big fan of social security of medicare but if I recall correctly, i think defense is really one of the biggest expenditures. But yet, somehow, we still can't afford to arm our troops properly in the field.

There is plenty of waste and Congress is not off the hook either. $250 million bridges in Alaska certainly do not help.
Here is a piechart showing the general distribution of the federal budget, the biggest category normally is - "heath, medicare, social security, etc."

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Old 07-13-2007, 08:23 AM   #13 (permalink)
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OK, what qualifies as "net interest"?

Ace, can you share where you got this chart? I'd love to see what they're putting where in more detail.
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Old 07-13-2007, 09:16 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Ace, thanks for the chart and clarification. It's a good start. I would like to see more of a breakdown too. Especially Human Resources - if we are spending that much on Healthcare and still getting lousy service then we need some serious overhauling. I also wonder if military personnel is slipped into Human Resources. Social Security is a wash. It will be a cold day in hell before we ever get to reform that debacle (thanks AARP!).
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Old 07-13-2007, 09:25 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jorgelito
Ace, thanks for the chart and clarification. It's a good start. I would like to see more of a breakdown too. Especially Human Resources - if we are spending that much on Healthcare and still getting lousy service then we need some serious overhauling. I also wonder if military personnel is slipped into Human Resources. Social Security is a wash. It will be a cold day in hell before we ever get to reform that debacle (thanks AARP!).

I recommend this link for more detail,and a bit of historical perspective.

http://services.alphaworks.ibm.com/m...Va6O_kEoi71E2-

I also recommend a good cold Ale while viewing.
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Old 07-13-2007, 09:44 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tecoyah
I recommend this link for more detail,and a bit of historical perspective.

http://services.alphaworks.ibm.com/m...Va6O_kEoi71E2-

I also recommend a good cold Ale while viewing.
Cool, thanks Tec. I will have to look at that when I get home though, because my work computer doesn't have a plug-in required.

Ale sounds good too. Unless you're talking about that other Ale from the other thread, hehe.
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Old 07-13-2007, 09:52 AM   #17 (permalink)
 
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Two thirds of the budget is non-discretionary funding..that is programs that have specific funding sources`(taxes) rather than general revenue, like Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on the national debt and Congress and the WH cant (or are not supposed to) mess with it.

Most of the 65% Human Resources in ace's chart is non-discretionary spending (it should be broken out between discretionary and non-discretionary)... along with the 11% net interest (interest on the debt).

That leaves about 1/3 of the total annual budget as discretionary, meaning Congress and the WH get to fight about how it is divided up.

Defense is the largest part of discretionary funding by far...generally about half of all discretionary funding... and the other half for all other other domestic programs, etc.



Non-discretionary (mandatory) spending is out of control and needs a serious fix; but part of the blip in red in the last 6 years is due to much higher interest payments as a result of the national debt doubling in those six years.

The blue shows how discretionary spending was reasonably stable, with the blip coming in fy 2002 - fy 2007`when Bush and the "fiscal" conservative Congress starting spending more.
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Last edited by dc_dux; 07-13-2007 at 10:29 AM..
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Old 07-13-2007, 10:30 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Jazz
OK, what qualifies as "net interest"?

Ace, can you share where you got this chart? I'd love to see what they're putting where in more detail.
I found the chart on a GOOGLE search.

http://www.google.com/search?q=U.S.+...ient=firefox-a

I generally look at OMB's website:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/

And the Congressional Budget Office website:

http://www.cbo.gov/

I don't know how to get data from PDF files posted on this board.

The OMB has a chart (chart 4) that shows defense discretionary at 20.1% and nondefense discretionary at 18.5%, for 2007.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget.../pdf/08msr.pdf
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Last edited by aceventura3; 07-13-2007 at 10:43 AM..
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Old 07-13-2007, 10:35 AM   #19 (permalink)
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If we had a growing middle class, that can afford to save and invest money; a strong economy and a manufacturing sector, I wouldn't worry about the debt.

However, as we lose good paying jobs overseas, as we see a shrinking middle class that cannot afford to have a savings account, let alone invest, a manufacturing sector that is dying.... I worry.

If we have a strong and growing economy the debt is growth and as the country grows and less investment is needed the government can back down a little. We are far from that.


Short of just saying fuck it and forgiving the debt .... I don't know how we can maintain it and survive.... how much of our taxes go to pay a year on it now, I know it's a God awful amount.
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Old 07-13-2007, 10:36 AM   #20 (permalink)
 
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There is a very cool poster, "Death and Taxes: A Visual Guide to Your Federal Taxes, where you can navigate around by each agency to see the discretionary funding:

http://www.thebudgetgraph.com/about/

Moving around the poster is a little tricky, but very informative.
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Old 07-13-2007, 10:51 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pan6467
If we had a growing middle class, that can afford to save and invest money; a strong economy and a manufacturing sector, I wouldn't worry about the debt.

However, as we lose good paying jobs overseas, as we see a shrinking middle class that cannot afford to have a savings account, let alone invest, a manufacturing sector that is dying.... I worry.

If we have a strong and growing economy the debt is growth and as the country grows and less investment is needed the government can back down a little. We are far from that.


Short of just saying fuck it and forgiving the debt .... I don't know how we can maintain it and survive.... how much of our taxes go to pay a year on it now, I know it's a God awful amount.
If you look at tax receipts, they are growing faster than the growth of GDP for now. If more taxes are being paid, it supports the fact that the economy is growing and is strong. Our economy doesn't grow without a strong "middle class."

Quote:
Tax receipts for the first eight months of 2007 have been strong, up by 8.0 percent, compared with tax receipts for the first eight months of last fiscal year. For the full fiscal year, overall receipts are projected to grow by 6.9 percent, which is faster than the rate of growth in GDP, and are expected to total $2.574 trillion, $34 billion higher than estimated in February
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget.../pdf/08msr.pdf
page 4.

To me the issue goes back to controlling spending in Washington.
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Old 07-13-2007, 11:05 AM   #22 (permalink)
 
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Pan....your share of the debt is $30,787 today...but growing

http://www.house.gov/lincolndavis/debtclock.htm
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Old 07-13-2007, 11:37 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
If you look at tax receipts, they are growing faster than the growth of GDP for now. If more taxes are being paid, it supports the fact that the economy is growing and is strong. Our economy doesn't grow without a strong "middle class."



http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget.../pdf/08msr.pdf
page 4.

To me the issue goes back to controlling spending in Washington.
ace..... tax receipts have increased less than 25 percent, since 2000....that's seven years:

$2.574 trillion now.....

<a href="http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:LK4mcAFfc4cJ:www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf+2005+revenue+tax+revenue&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=7#2">$2,025.5 trillion in 2000.....</a>

How much has federal spending increased in that same time span? Hence, a $3 trillion increase in total US Federal Treasury debt.....
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Old 07-13-2007, 11:54 AM   #24 (permalink)
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Pan,

What is your share of our national net worth? There are differing ways to measure it, this gentleman used the sum total of household net worth (again that is "net" or assets minus debt) and then deducted federal government public debt to come up with a national net worth of $44.2 trillion in 2005. If you divide that by the population number of your choice you then can compare that number to the $30,787 number.

Quote:
Since 1952 household net worth--that is, assets minus liabilities--has increased by an average of 7.4% annually, or 3.7% in real terms. That includes real estate booms and real estate busts, bull markets and bear markets.

This annual percentage gain translates into a huge increase in net worth, in dollars. Household net worth today is just under $50 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.

A 7.4% increase--the average for the past 50 years--would correspond to a $3.4 trillion increase in wealth. That means we could cover an $800 billion current account deficit, and have plenty left over.

Even if we assume that households are responsible for all of the federal government's debt, and we adjust for inflation, that doesn't change the calculation much. Here's what the past year looked like:

....2004Q1.... 2005Q1.... % change.... inflation change

Household net worth.... 45.8....48.8....3.0.... 1.9
--Public federal debt....4.2....4.6.... 0.4.... 0.3

=Adjusted net worth.... 41.6....44.2 in trillions
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thre..._so_scary.html
That number does not factor in the assets held by the federal state and local governments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by host
ace..... tax receipts have increased less than 25 percent, since 2000....that's seven years:

$2.574 trillion now.....

<a href="http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:LK4mcAFfc4cJ:www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf+2005+revenue+tax+revenue&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=7#2">$2,025.5 trillion in 2000.....</a>

How much has federal spending increased in that same time span? Hence, a $3 trillion increase in total US Federal Treasury debt.....
I agreed spending is out of control. Government spending at some point has to slow down or it will eventually account for more and more of our national economy, it will starve and eventually kill it.

One way to look at the increases in taxes collected is compare that to what we were told about the tax rate cuts, what we were told about the Bush recession, what we were about a jobless growth economy, what we were told about supply side economics.

{added}

FYI, look at this report:

http://www.gsa.gov/gsa/cm_attachment...DZ-i34K-pR.pdf

One thing it shows is that the government owns 2.9 trillion square feet of building assets, with a replacement cost of about $1.3 trillion dollars and about 54 million acres of land.
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Last edited by aceventura3; 07-13-2007 at 12:26 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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