ASU2003

Maybe something like the Iraq/Iran war happens again. If we pull out the US troops in March 2008 and the Iraqi army can't handle the sectarian violence, would the whole region collapse? Would the extremists groups fight and kill each other, and after a few years, the pieces could be picked up and the refugees and normal people could return? Or will the extremists think, America isn't here anymore, let's go attack their embassies around the world and strike at first world non-Islamic countries. Would they blow up the oil infrastructure or would they take it hostage? Oil prices would go up either way.

Would the extremist movement implode upon itself because of inner differences and the want for more power? Or would everybody be peaceful and happy that they can live life without American interference, and work together to plan attacks against non-muslims.

If it does burn out and both sides take heavy casualties, will it just be another 20 years before the middle eastern kids of today grow up and start the same thing all over again? The extremists and 'terrorists' are the kids that grew up during the 80's Iran/Iraq war. Millions of kids lost a parent during that war, and you don't forget that.

Willravel

It would depend on who's fighting. Iraq can't fight anyone rightnow because it's already in a civil war, so that's out. Say, though, that Israel goes to war with Iran. The US would step in because of our undying love for Israel, Russia and China might step in because Iran is a great supply of oil (China) and finance from weaponry (Russia). Welcome to WW3. The only real way to stop fighting in the Middle East is a combination of the withdrawl of all outside influences, and constant multilateral peace talks. Short of nuking the whole area, this is the only real option for peace.

I think that supporting pro-convergent imams would be good too, in order to strengthen the centerist movement in Islam and to give more power to the idea that the separation of Shiite and Sunnis is something for extreemists, and that good, god fearing muslims should want peace as it's writtten in the Qu'ran. Right now our biggest obstacle is ourselves and extreemists in power.

I we were able to show a genuine concern and respect for their faith, it would be much more difficult for the ME to deamoize the West.

The_Jazz

I really don't see how an Iraqi civil war could spread far beyond its own borders unless a neighbor state were to send in troops to fill the power vacuum left by a US evacuation. Why, for instance, would the Egyptians get involved? Or, how would the logistics of an Israeli/Iranian war work when the two are separated by 1000 miles (or so)?

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Rekna

I think the most likely chance of something like a global war in the middle east starting in the next few years wouldn't start from a civil war but instead from the US attacking Iran and having other Muslim countries in the region saying thats enough and going after US troops in the middle east.

pan6467

I think there is a great possibility of a "civil war" in the Middle East the longer we are in Iraq. And I don't believe it to have much to do with Iraq, per se.

What I see happening is our planting seeds of freedom (i.e. funding certain "US friendly" groups that will recruit and spread propaganda to start some unrest. I think we'll see non-oil countries hit first (Syria), followed by oil rich countries (Saudi Arabia).

People fighting the leaders of their country because they have either too close of ties with the U.S. (Saudi) or the leaders are too tyrannical and the people fear for themselves (Iran... N. Korea could go into this category).

In another post they talk about all this money lost in Iraq...... I don't think it was lost it was used to fund covert operations.... to make "US friendly" Osamas that are willing to try to overthrow their leaders when the time is right.

What the rest of the world does when all this happens will be telling as to whether society survives or dies.

If Europe, Russia, China and everyone stays out and keeps us out... letting the countries handle their own affairs... we'll be safe... may run low on oil but necessity drives invention and we'll see how fast we can be taken off oil (my guess is within a year). Without oil money going in the leaderships are dead and with some rough spots, peace will eventually dominate that region.

However, if everyone takes sides, we are doomed. The first thing China will do is sell off every dollar they have and destroy our economy.... they already made sure we have no factories and ways to mass produce heavy artillary right away. We can't fight a war without it... so we're dead in the water. And the whole world structure as we know it will vanish, without much true warfare. And with a dead dollar even most of the oil rich countries will be broke and thus lose their leaderships.

From there the world will be split into regions, and governed by a truly powerful United Nations that controls all nations governments. It'll be like they are the Feds... each country is just a state and so on.

I truly see the Middle East headed one of those 2 ways. I don't see a huge nuclear war (unless we get a psycho in the WH that decides he'd rather destroy everyone and everything than watch us taken over). I don't see China allowing Iran or N. Korea to nuke us. Rattle sabres... maybe allow Iran and us a little skirmish over Iraqi lands but nothing world threatening.

I know I'm just nuts and probably put wayyyyyy too much thought into all this.

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desal75

I don't know if any of the Middle East nations have a strong enough desire for one anothers land or assets to risk a large scale military involvement with one another. The large US presence in the region would make it difficult to pull off without some kind of international reaction from the United Nations or other group condemning it.

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Darth_Kettch

True, I imagine that the most likely form of conflict is the sort of slightly-hidden manipulations we've seen so far: Iran supplying Iraqi factions with weapons, Syrian supplying Lebanese factions with weapons, everyone and their uncle supporting some Palestinian group, Israeli intelligence operatives all over the place, and possibilities of tactical strikes by both the US and Israel. Full blown war... Can't really imagine it.

The only thing we can know for sure is that oil prices will go up

powerclown

Charlie Rose had the Iranian ambassador to the UN on the last night.

This joker says straight out - with a big grin on his face - that Iran:

1) is not interested in regional hegemony,
1a) is not pursuing nuclear weapons
2) is not supplying Iraqi shiites with weapons or intel, and
2a) is not supplying either hizballah or hamas with weapons or intel
2b) is not interferring politically in Iraq ("It would be bad for Iran!")
3) blames all this on the Israeli "occupation" of Palestine.

RIGHT

loquitur

There are some schools of thought that Iran is already in a low-level civil war, as its minorities - and there are many - chafe under the domination of the Shiite mullahs. I would suspect there will be intense pressures brought to bear on the theocrats now running the place, not merely from the non-Persian non-Shia, but also from many in the majority who regard themselves as too proud an ancient civilization to be under the thumb of medieval theocrats.

The next five years are critical.