Emerging Economic Powers, and the US' place in the Future (NO LEFT V RIGHT ALLOWED) - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Ch'i · 09-26-2006, 11:21 AM

Rules:
First of all, no right v left. I've seen many a thread fall victim to this, and am hoping that we can keep this topic a civil debate on factual information, and contributing opinions. This thread is for discussion, NOT shooting other people down.

No argumentul ad homien; as stated earlier, do not attack people.

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The foundations of power today are shifting. With peak oil on the horizon, many countries are beginning to reshape their economy to fit the new trend of ecologically sound energy sources.

Quote:

Press Releases: EIA Reports
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
JULY 29, 2005

Emerging Asia Drives World Energy Use in the International Energy Outlook 2005

Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent between 2002 and 2025, according to the International Energy Outlook 2005 ( IEO2005) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEO2005 shows strongest growth in energy consumption among the emerging economies of the world, especially emerging Asia (including China and India), where robust economic growth drives the increase in energy use over the projection period. Energy use among emerging economies more than doubles over the forecast period (Figure 1).

In contrast to the emerging economies of the world, slower growth in energy demand is projected for the United States and the other mature market economies, which experience a combined 27-percent increase in energy use between 2002 and 2025. The mature market economies are characterized by well-established energy consumption patterns and infrastructure, combined with a shift from energy-intensive industries to service industries to temper the growth in energy demand.

Energy use in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are expected to grow by 45 percent over the forecast period. Slow or declining population growth in this region, combined with strong projected gains in energy efficiency as old, inefficient equipment is replaced, leads to more modest growth in energy demand than in the emerging economies.

World oil prices—expressed in terms of the U.S. refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil—rose by more than $9 per barrel (in nominal dollars) over the course of 2004 and are expected to add an additional $11 per barrel in 2005. Looking forward, the IEO2005 reference case adopts a world oil price scenario developed in late 2004 in which prices decline from present levels by 2010, then start to increase.

World oil use is expected to grow to 119 million barrels per day in 2025. The United States, China, and the rest of emerging Asia account for 63 percent of the projected growth in world oil use. The projection for oil demand in 2025 is somewhat lower than the 121 million barrels per day forecast in last year’s Outlook, due in large part to the higher world oil price projections in IEO2005. The decline in demand would be even greater if not for the robust growth projected in China in the short term. China’s oil use is projected to grow by an average 7.5 percent per year from 2002 to 2010, before slowing to 2.9 percent per year for the remainder of the forecast.

The projected increment in world oil use would require an increment in world oil production capacity of about 35 million barrels per day relative to today’s level. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major suppliers of the increased production, accounting for 60 percent of the projected increase in world capacity. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.

Other report highlights include:

Natural Gas Demand: Natural gas is the fastest growing component of world primary energy in the IEO2005 reference case. Over the 2002 to 2025 forecast horizon, consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 69 percent to 156 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas is likely to be favored for electricity generation in many parts of the world, given its relative efficiency in comparison with other energy sources, as well as the fact it burns more cleanly than either coal or oil and thus is an attractive alternative for countries pursuing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Natural gas is also an important energy resource in the industrial sector, and that sector accounts for 36 percent of the total growth in natural gas demand over the 2002 to 2025 period (Figure 2).
Nuclear Power: The IEO2005 reference case projects that electricity generation from nuclear will rise from 2,560 billion kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,270 billion kilowatthours in 2025. Higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for new nuclear power capacity, which had been expected to decline at the end of the forecast period in last year’s IEO. The strongest growth in nuclear generation is projected in the countries of emerging Asia, where nuclear power generation triples between 2002 and 2025.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions: In the IEO2005 reference case, carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 24.4 billion metric tons in 2002 to 30.2 billion metric tons in 2010 and 38.8 billion metric tons in 2025 (Figure 3). Much of the projected increase in emissions is expected to occur among the emerging economies, accompanying large increases in fossil fuel use. The emerging economies account for 68 percent of the projected increment in carbon dioxide emissions between 2002 and 2025. Continued reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, as projected for the emerging economies of the world, ensures that even when those nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol undertake to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions as required in the treaty, there still will be a substantial increase in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions over the forecast horizon.

The euro gaining value, the dollar detriment, and emerging economies such as China, and India, are providing new competition for the US. With outsourcing for raw materials, and labor, coupled with today's foreign policies, the US has grown a substantial amount of debt.

Quote:

U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez
REMARKS TO AMCHAM/U.S.-CHINA
BUSINESS COUNCIL BREAKFAST
China World Hotel
Beijing, China
March 29, 2006

China is now in a position to be a responsible stakeholder in the global economy and not just a participant like so many others. China is not just one more trading partner. China is not just one more WTO member. China is at a stage and at a size and at a point of influence that it needs to graduate to be a responsible stakeholder of the global trading community and a very important stakeholder of the global trading community. Full Remark...

Quote:

The Future of the Dollar: The passing of the buck?
Dec 2nd 2004
From The Economist print edition

America's policies are putting at risk the dollar's role as the world's dominant international currency

Since mid-October the dollar has fallen by around 7% against the other main currencies, hitting a new all-time low against the euro and a five-year low against the yen. The dollar has lost a total of 35% against the euro since early 2002; but it has fallen by a more modest 17% against a broad basket of currencies, including the Chinese yuan, which is pegged to the greenback. The dollar wobbled badly this week, having fallen for five successive days after Mr Greenspan said that America's current-account deficit was unsustainable because foreigners would eventually lose their appetite for more dollar-denominated assets. Full Story...

With these factors in mind, what can we expect to see in economics in the next few decades?

How do you think competition for raw materials will affect relations with these emerging economies?

How can the US cope with the changes taking place?

Will we see a less predominant US influence in the world, or more so?

I'll start off.
The US is undergoing some hard times, and China is in a position where it can challenge, rather than work with us. I guess it depends on how beneficial China views their trade with the US.

The trend towards less oil based energy is fantastic, but it will definately have a harsh transition in the US, as well as a few other oil based economies. Could definately reshape the power distribution in the world.

It will be interesting to see whether these emerging powers chose to actively spread their influence, or maintain a neutral standing.

Subjoin: EIA Program Contact: Linda Doman, (202) 586-1041
EIA Press Contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800 , or, Infoctr@eia.doe.gov

aberkok · 09-26-2006, 11:38 AM

I think there will be a great balancing out.

Last year when I went to Hong Kong I expected a great deal of fascination with the west. I had been brought up with the stereotype of the "Chinese Tourist" - who loved everything from the West. When I got there I quickly realized that they really weren't as concerned as I thought. They were doing fine, thank you very much. The big news when it came to booming economy, or most other things, came out of Singapore, Mumbai or Shanghai.

The sad part, and I hope I'm wrong, is that their reckless pursuit of capital is likely to send them down the same unsustainable path that the West has tread. Worst case scenario would be a hostile expansion by these new powers, into new markets, which are eventually necessary for any capitalist power.

As far as raw materials, I am excited to live in a country where we have a lot of natural wealth.

Baraka_Guru · 09-27-2006, 03:58 AM

Much of the impact hinges on which side of the trade balance you're on. The U.S. isn't in great shape and is underperforming on the most significant current trends.

As demands for energy and construction spike (e.g. in China and India), so do resource prices, especially when you factor in every growth-related product. Anyone who has been invested in steel, oil & gas, fertilizer, and uranium for the past couple of years are making a killing and will be for some time to come.

Considering America's astounding natural resource import/export deficit, they aren't just missing out on economic gains, they're paying inflated prices for the same resources. The difference is that China and India are able to post trade surpluses through the support of other industries... this is something that is of grave concern to the U.S., and rightly so.

aKula · 09-27-2006, 04:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aberkok

I think there will be a great balancing out.

Last year when I went to Hong Kong I expected a great deal of fascination with the west. I had been brought up with the stereotype of the "Chinese Tourist" - who loved everything from the West. When I got there I quickly realized that they really weren't as concerned as I thought. They were doing fine, thank you very much. The big news when it came to booming economy, or most other things, came out of Singapore, Mumbai or Shanghai.

The sad part, and I hope I'm wrong, is that their reckless pursuit of capital is likely to send them down the same unsustainable path that the West has tread. Worst case scenario would be a hostile expansion by these new powers, into new markets, which are eventually necessary for any capitalist power.

As far as raw materials, I am excited to live in a country where we have a lot of natural wealth.

I'm sure you're already aware of this but I'd thought I should warn not to use Hong Kong as an representation of the whole of China. Particularly development wise, the differences are vast. This is not first hand experience (I have been to Hong Kong but not anywhere in China proper) but from what Chinese friends have told me.

09-26-2006, 11:38 AM	#2 (permalink)
aberkok “Wrong is right.” Location: toronto	I think there will be a great balancing out. Last year when I went to Hong Kong I expected a great deal of fascination with the west. I had been brought up with the stereotype of the "Chinese Tourist" - who loved everything from the West. When I got there I quickly realized that they really weren't as concerned as I thought. They were doing fine, thank you very much. The big news when it came to booming economy, or most other things, came out of Singapore, Mumbai or Shanghai. The sad part, and I hope I'm wrong, is that their reckless pursuit of capital is likely to send them down the same unsustainable path that the West has tread. Worst case scenario would be a hostile expansion by these new powers, into new markets, which are eventually necessary for any capitalist power. As far as raw materials, I am excited to live in a country where we have a lot of natural wealth. __________________ !check out my new blog! http://arkanamusic.wordpress.com Warden Gentiles: "It? Perfectly innocent. But I can see how, if our roles were reversed, I might have you beaten with a pillowcase full of batteries."

09-27-2006, 03:58 AM	#3 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Much of the impact hinges on which side of the trade balance you're on. The U.S. isn't in great shape and is underperforming on the most significant current trends. As demands for energy and construction spike (e.g. in China and India), so do resource prices, especially when you factor in every growth-related product. Anyone who has been invested in steel, oil & gas, fertilizer, and uranium for the past couple of years are making a killing and will be for some time to come. Considering America's astounding natural resource import/export deficit, they aren't just missing out on economic gains, they're paying inflated prices for the same resources. The difference is that China and India are able to post trade surpluses through the support of other industries... this is something that is of grave concern to the U.S., and rightly so. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot