Human Expansion - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

MageB420666 · 01-31-2005, 08:40 PM

I thought this might deserve another thread, since it was way off topic from the one it was in.

What are everyones views towards where the human race will be in the future, any where from a hundred years in the future to the End of the Universe(Where you can eat at Milliways).

The link to the other topic has a little bit of a start for this, but I'll post the relative stuff:

Me:

Quote:

we are still a long way from even making it to Mars, much less spreading throughout our own galaxy, and even doing that would be a piece of cake compared to spreading to other galaxies. I believe a close comparison of the difference in diffuculty would be roughly the same, as jumping two feet forward, compared to, say, jumping straight up and landing on a planet at the opposite end of our galaxy in about 2 hours.

We will eventually die out, just like all the other life forms on earth and, eventually, no one will ever have any idea that we ever existed. Because even if we do find or are found by other intelligent life, those species will die out eventually also and all memory of us shall be forgotten. Kinda depressing, isn't it?

Yakk:

Quote:

I see you don't truely understand the concept of 'exponential growth'.The visible universe is less than 20 billion light years in radius.

That is less than 4*10^26 meters.

If you start with a 1 m long stick, and have it double in length every month, the meter stick would stretch accross the entire universe in less than 8 years.

If you started with a 1 m cube, and had it double in volume every month, it would take 22 years to exceed the volume of the visible universe.

Now this is ridiculous, really. The speed of light gets in the way.

However, for a truely exponential process, the barrier slowing it down is, in the end, the speed of light. An exponential civilization is a relatavistic phenomina.

Exponentially growing phenomina are not all that common in physics. I can't think of one that operates even on a planitary scale, other than life.

Quote:
We will eventually die out, just like all the other life forms on earth and, eventually, no one will ever have any idea that we ever existed.

That is the most likely result, I agree.

Unlike the whale, there is a small chance that we, in and of ourselves, can beat the odds.

It is a small chance. And quite possibly that which beats the odds won't be recognizably human, or even organic. But it is an interesting chance!

That is your belief.

"Where is Everybody?" Enrico Fermi. A question that nobody has provided a final answer to yet -- why is the universe so quiet?

Quantum Immortality

There isn't proof, but there is the possiblity that
A> you will never die
and
B> the human race will be the first interstellar civilization

If that doesn't make the universe seem more interesting...

Like I have said, these things aren't certain. They are even unlikely. But they are interesting, and possible. Some would even say reasonable, but I personally wouldn't go that far.

Intelligence can be viewed as a particularly 'interesting' form of information processing. And it is a form that, quite possibly, can be carried by many mediums, and spread exponentially. And, quite possibly, Earth could be the only local source of this self-replicating thingy.

So to sum up my view, the human race will eventually die off due to an inability to continually expand. I doubt we'll leave the solar system and just plain don't believe that we'll ever be able to travel outside our galaxy.

flstf · 02-01-2005, 01:40 AM

I believe there will be breakthroughs in our understanding of physics that will enable us to travel out of this solar system. Our knowledge of the universe is in it's infancy, we've only been at it for a short period of time. It is knowledge that will have to grow exponentially. Hopefully a comet strike, solar flare or some other disaster doesn't get us first.

Perhaps that exponential leap in knowledge will come if we can make contact with advanced alien life. But then, they may be hoping to contact us for the same reason.

C4 Diesel · 02-01-2005, 05:13 AM

I think that we can easily survive and get off this planet / out of this solar system in due time, however it's not going to be because of exponential growth. If anything, exponential growth is what's going to kill us all. We're using resources way faster than they can be replenished or replaced, and exponential growth is only going to make it worse.

Everyone know of the doubling time? 70/x, where x is the percent growth / time unit. So if the growth rate was 10% / year, the doubling time would be 7 years. The earth has about 45 million square miles of dry land, Antartica excluded (about 116 quadrillion square meters - or 1.16*10^14 sq m). The current world population is about 6.5 billion (6.5*10^9) people, and the growth rate is about 1.5 percent, leaving the doubling time at about 47 years. Now you can do the calculations if you care to... It would take a little over 14 doubling times for the population of the earth to reach the area of the dry landmass in square meters. So in some 660 years, the population density over the entire earth will have reached one person per square meter.

This obviously assumes that the population growth does not slow over time, which it should. The rate of population growth in developed countries is way less than that in undeveloped countries, so much so that while undeveloped countries can easily double their population in 40 years, the population in developed countries has plateaued. This is a good thing, for as the "undeveloped" countries become "developed", the population growth will actually stop, which should somewhat lighten our load on the enviornment.

However, industrial growth remains a problem, and seems to maintain this exponential growth despite decrease in populaiton growth, thanks largely, I would imagine, to automation. Conventional oil supplies, with the current use and rate of growth (2%), will deplete the words oil reserves before 2050. Granted, this does not take into account the sources of "nonconventional" oil (tar deposits, are one that I know of) which are basically anything that has a similar hydrocarbon structure to oil, however no one is using this nonconventional oil because no one knows how to drill for it or process it yet. Oh, did I mention that the oil output is predicted to peak within 2 years?

So, yeah... I think we can make it. I don't think death is imminent, but we sure as hell have to keep ourselves in check.

02-01-2005, 05:35 AM

Moving out to the other planets in the solar system to exploit their resources and possibly to make attempts at making them more habitable are inevitable. Once that happens, we will be able to grow from mother Earth out to the solar system. At that point, necessity will teach us new technologies relating to the preservation of life for extended periods of time in space. The world will loose its resources issue, exept perhaps in regards to the production of enough food, but again technology should be able to step in and create foodstuffs extra-terrestrially.

Once Man has colonised the solar system (something that could take 5000 years), the technologies learnt should make him able to at least consider taking tentative steps out to the nearest extra-solar system. After that, who knows.

But in my mind, this is what Man does best. If Man has a purpose, it is to seed the universe with life from Earth.

Charlatan · 02-01-2005, 05:41 AM

I too am of the belief that we will never get out of our solar system... The distances are just *too* vast.

I don't believe we will ever exceed the speed of light so travelling those vast distances would take generations at best... This is way too forward thinking for humans.

Master_Shake · 02-01-2005, 06:59 AM

Quote:

so travelling those vast distances would take generations at best...

Generations given our current life expectancy, but not necessarily so if medical science continues to increase the human life span.

Besides, what else have we got to do with ourselves other than to expand? Assuming we don't blow ourselves up or have a collision with a comet, I would imagine we'll have a lot of time on our hands.

Strange Famous · 02-01-2005, 07:04 AM

My personal belief, which may be subjective, is that upon death and the soul being reunited with God, the bounds of the solar system, or even the material or "visible" universe will appear puny and irrelevant.

In terms of mankind travelling to other plannets and solar systems... it is possible, but at present I see mutual destruction by war as a far more fate for this species.

Which in a way is somewhat of a contradiction, to see the potential of the spirit as immense, and yet mortal human beings as little more than vicious and intelligent animals, incapable of not butchering themselves with horrific regularity and scale. But I do feel the soul is a part of God or a gift given buy God which is of God, and upon death this part returns to God or God's domain... and at the same time, the world of men is consumed by war, competition, and savagery. We simply seem unable to live in peace and not fight, and as the weapons of mass destruction grow ever more efficient, can you really believe that we can survive long enough to travel to other worlds? Look at the world about us now, look how many wars are being fought, look at all the hate you see. Does it seem credible, we shall survive so much longer?

I dont know if thinking so makes me a pessemist or an optimist.

raveneye · 02-01-2005, 07:25 AM

We'll never get out of the solar system, nor should anybody even want to.

We can't adequately take care of the incredible bounty we have on earth. The problem isn't earth, it's us.

Nobody wants to live even in Oakland California. Why then would they want to live on a barren sea of methane?

02-01-2005, 07:27 AM

Plenty of pioneers died to discover Oakland, California - do you not see a similar pioneering spirit emerging as we explore the solar system?

Charlatan · 02-01-2005, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Master_Shake

Generations given our current life expectancy, but not necessarily so if medical science continues to increase the human life span.

Besides, what else have we got to do with ourselves other than to expand? Assuming we don't blow ourselves up or have a collision with a comet, I would imagine we'll have a lot of time on our hands.

I believe that humans, even if they can live to 150 years old do not have the patience or the foresight to plan that far in advance... At present we do not have a lot of time on our hands... only 80 to 90 years on average.

Greedy souls that we are, we don't want to make the sacrifices neccessary to halt the overuse of fossil fuels... Our attitude is, let the future generations worry about it because, I don't want to pay for it...

I don't see this attitude changing anytime soon.

Master_Shake · 02-01-2005, 07:37 AM

If 150 years is the limit then maybe. But I don't see why it's impossible to extend human life for hundreds if not thousands of years.

Granted, this isn't going to happen tomorrow or maybe not this century or millenia. But if people could live damn near forever, I can't imagine wanting to hang out here for that whole time.

And of course, that assumes that the human body will be the only vessel for containing human minds, or that robots can't do the travelling for us. There's a lot of possibilities as to how we could exert some influence in other solar systems or galaxies without actually being present.

Quote:

We'll never get out of the solar system, nor should anybody even want to.

Why shouldn't we want to get out? Do you believe there be dragons out there or something? Again, it depends on our goals and needs. If we needed to get out of here to go to another system (which, if humanity survives long enough we eventually would have to due to the expansion of our sun) I'm sure we'd spend a lot of time and energy figuring a way to do it.

EDIT: Of course, when I write about humanity as "we" I mean the rich and powerful people who could afford or manage to exploit the resources of the planet and of the poor to build their spaceships. I don't have any illusions that the rich are going to share this with poor people. When the sun finally expands to engulf the earth the rich will be long gone, having left the rest of us to fend for ourselves.

raveneye · 02-01-2005, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zen_tom

Plenty of pioneers died to discover Oakland, California - do you not see a similar pioneering spirit emerging as we explore the solar system?

Which pioneers are you talking about, the Asians who discovered it 10,000 years ago, or the Europeans who stole it from them?

Yes there is a pioneering spirit, but I think that energy is best put to use discovering sustainable cultures here on earth.

tecoyah · 02-01-2005, 08:10 AM

Step one to eventual colonization of the Sol System.................whats next?
Ask me in about fifty years.

January 31

Green Light on Two-Way Earth-Moon Highway

A new commercial space venture for lunar exploration has been born.

The Lunar Transportation Systems, Inc. of Bellevue, Washington envisions a bustling space highway as hardware traffics back and forth between the Earth and the Moon.

The LTS lander nears the Moon’s surface. Credit: LTS, Inc.
Goal of the group is to raise major bucks from the private sector to develop, build, ground test, flight test, and operate a new Earth-Moon transportation system.

The Lunar Transportation Systems (LTS) private enterprise has been established by two longtime space businessmen, Walter Kistler and Bob Citron. Both have a track record in pushing the entrepreneurial envelope.

Kistler founded Kistler Instruments AG and was the first investor in SPACEHAB, and co-founded Kistler Aerospace Corporation with Citron who also founded SPACEHAB.

LTS wants to tie into NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration – a sweeping agenda that calls for a greater role of the private sector in space exploration. A scaled-up version of the LTS system will be capable of sending crews to and from the Moon and can provide large cargo payloads to support a permanent lunar base.

“We are so excited that the White House and the recent new government space policy underscores the need to involve the private sector in assisting NASA develop its plans for the new Vision for Space Exploration,” said Walter Kistler, LTS co-founder and Chairman.

“Our new lunar transportation system utilizes a unique architecture that will establish the equivalent of a two-way highway between the Earth and the Moon,” Kistler told SPACE.com. “Our plans include raising private capital to develop, build, flight test, and operate this Earth-Moon highway for the benefit of the country and the benefit of our investors.”

-- Leonard David

http://www.space.com/astronotes/astronotes.html

Suave · 02-01-2005, 12:24 PM

Our population isn't going to double in 50 years. That growth rate formula fails to take into account the age of the population. A LOT of people throughout North America, Europe, and Asia (China especially) are going to be dying in the next decade or so, thanks to low fertility rates, and the one child policy in China.

02-01-2005, 05:13 AM	#3 (permalink)
C4 Diesel Crazy Location: Troy, NY	I think that we can easily survive and get off this planet / out of this solar system in due time, however it's not going to be because of exponential growth. If anything, exponential growth is what's going to kill us all. We're using resources way faster than they can be replenished or replaced, and exponential growth is only going to make it worse. Everyone know of the doubling time? 70/x, where x is the percent growth / time unit. So if the growth rate was 10% / year, the doubling time would be 7 years. The earth has about 45 million square miles of dry land, Antartica excluded (about 116 quadrillion square meters - or 1.1610^14 sq m). The current world population is about 6.5 billion (6.510^9) people, and the growth rate is about 1.5 percent, leaving the doubling time at about 47 years. Now you can do the calculations if you care to... It would take a little over 14 doubling times for the population of the earth to reach the area of the dry landmass in square meters. So in some 660 years, the population density over the entire earth will have reached one person per square meter. This obviously assumes that the population growth does not slow over time, which it should. The rate of population growth in developed countries is way less than that in undeveloped countries, so much so that while undeveloped countries can easily double their population in 40 years, the population in developed countries has plateaued. This is a good thing, for as the "undeveloped" countries become "developed", the population growth will actually stop, which should somewhat lighten our load on the enviornment. However, industrial growth remains a problem, and seems to maintain this exponential growth despite decrease in populaiton growth, thanks largely, I would imagine, to automation. Conventional oil supplies, with the current use and rate of growth (2%), will deplete the words oil reserves before 2050. Granted, this does not take into account the sources of "nonconventional" oil (tar deposits, are one that I know of) which are basically anything that has a similar hydrocarbon structure to oil, however no one is using this nonconventional oil because no one knows how to drill for it or process it yet. Oh, did I mention that the oil output is predicted to peak within 2 years? So, yeah... I think we can make it. I don't think death is imminent, but we sure as hell have to keep ourselves in check. __________________ C4 to your door, no beef no more...

02-01-2005, 05:41 AM	#5 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	I too am of the belief that we will never get out of our solar system... The distances are just too vast. I don't believe we will ever exceed the speed of light so travelling those vast distances would take generations at best... This is way too forward thinking for humans. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

02-01-2005, 07:04 AM	#7 (permalink)
Strange Famous follower of the child's crusade?	My personal belief, which may be subjective, is that upon death and the soul being reunited with God, the bounds of the solar system, or even the material or "visible" universe will appear puny and irrelevant. In terms of mankind travelling to other plannets and solar systems... it is possible, but at present I see mutual destruction by war as a far more fate for this species. Which in a way is somewhat of a contradiction, to see the potential of the spirit as immense, and yet mortal human beings as little more than vicious and intelligent animals, incapable of not butchering themselves with horrific regularity and scale. But I do feel the soul is a part of God or a gift given buy God which is of God, and upon death this part returns to God or God's domain... and at the same time, the world of men is consumed by war, competition, and savagery. We simply seem unable to live in peace and not fight, and as the weapons of mass destruction grow ever more efficient, can you really believe that we can survive long enough to travel to other worlds? Look at the world about us now, look how many wars are being fought, look at all the hate you see. Does it seem credible, we shall survive so much longer? I dont know if thinking so makes me a pessemist or an optimist. __________________ "Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate, for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain without being uncovered." The Gospel of Thomas

02-01-2005, 08:10 AM	#13 (permalink)
tecoyah Illusionary	Step one to eventual colonization of the Sol System.................whats next? Ask me in about fifty years. January 31 Green Light on Two-Way Earth-Moon Highway A new commercial space venture for lunar exploration has been born. The Lunar Transportation Systems, Inc. of Bellevue, Washington envisions a bustling space highway as hardware traffics back and forth between the Earth and the Moon. The LTS lander nears the Moon’s surface. Credit: LTS, Inc. Goal of the group is to raise major bucks from the private sector to develop, build, ground test, flight test, and operate a new Earth-Moon transportation system. The Lunar Transportation Systems (LTS) private enterprise has been established by two longtime space businessmen, Walter Kistler and Bob Citron. Both have a track record in pushing the entrepreneurial envelope. Kistler founded Kistler Instruments AG and was the first investor in SPACEHAB, and co-founded Kistler Aerospace Corporation with Citron who also founded SPACEHAB. LTS wants to tie into NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration – a sweeping agenda that calls for a greater role of the private sector in space exploration. A scaled-up version of the LTS system will be capable of sending crews to and from the Moon and can provide large cargo payloads to support a permanent lunar base. “We are so excited that the White House and the recent new government space policy underscores the need to involve the private sector in assisting NASA develop its plans for the new Vision for Space Exploration,” said Walter Kistler, LTS co-founder and Chairman. “Our new lunar transportation system utilizes a unique architecture that will establish the equivalent of a two-way highway between the Earth and the Moon,” Kistler told SPACE.com. “Our plans include raising private capital to develop, build, flight test, and operate this Earth-Moon highway for the benefit of the country and the benefit of our investors.” -- Leonard David http://www.space.com/astronotes/astronotes.html __________________ Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha

02-01-2005, 12:24 PM	#14 (permalink)
Suave Twitterpated Location: My own little world (also Canada)	Our population isn't going to double in 50 years. That growth rate formula fails to take into account the age of the population. A LOT of people throughout North America, Europe, and Asia (China especially) are going to be dying in the next decade or so, thanks to low fertility rates, and the one child policy in China. __________________ "Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are even incapable of forming such opinions." - Albert Einstein "Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something." - Plato

02-01-2005, 01:40 AM	#2 (permalink)
flstf Easy Rider Location: Moscow on the Ohio	I believe there will be breakthroughs in our understanding of physics that will enable us to travel out of this solar system. Our knowledge of the universe is in it's infancy, we've only been at it for a short period of time. It is knowledge that will have to grow exponentially. Hopefully a comet strike, solar flare or some other disaster doesn't get us first. Perhaps that exponential leap in knowledge will come if we can make contact with advanced alien life. But then, they may be hoping to contact us for the same reason.

02-01-2005, 05:35 AM	#4 (permalink)
zen_tom Guest	Moving out to the other planets in the solar system to exploit their resources and possibly to make attempts at making them more habitable are inevitable. Once that happens, we will be able to grow from mother Earth out to the solar system. At that point, necessity will teach us new technologies relating to the preservation of life for extended periods of time in space. The world will loose its resources issue, exept perhaps in regards to the production of enough food, but again technology should be able to step in and create foodstuffs extra-terrestrially. Once Man has colonised the solar system (something that could take 5000 years), the technologies learnt should make him able to at least consider taking tentative steps out to the nearest extra-solar system. After that, who knows. But in my mind, this is what Man does best. If Man has a purpose, it is to seed the universe with life from Earth.

02-01-2005, 07:25 AM	#8 (permalink)
raveneye Born Against	We'll never get out of the solar system, nor should anybody even want to. We can't adequately take care of the incredible bounty we have on earth. The problem isn't earth, it's us. Nobody wants to live even in Oakland California. Why then would they want to live on a barren sea of methane?

02-01-2005, 07:27 AM	#9 (permalink)
zen_tom Guest	Plenty of pioneers died to discover Oakland, California - do you not see a similar pioneering spirit emerging as we explore the solar system?