Charlatan

Holy Cow.

Stephan Dion is now the leader of the Federal Liberals.

What do you think? Is this a renewal of the party or is just more of the same? Dion will be a goo d leader BUT having yet another leader from French Canada may appeal to Quebec but how is this going to play in the West?

I have to admit, he is the one front runner that I didn't know very much about and now I have to go and do some reading.

What are your thoughts on this? Can the Liberals win the next election with Dion at the helm?

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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

fresnelly

I have to admit I've been ignoring the leadership race. Everytime I see footage of the convention , I think back to their track record of patronage and corruption, and wonder at the delegates' enthusiasm.

I really don't know enough about Dion. Is he a new kind of politician (Ha!) or will those cynical western perceptions prove true. Overall, and it may just be a product of the preliminary coverage, it seems like too many of the candidates either carry old political baggage or worse, are boring. They may well have elected Dalton McGuinty.

I was half heartedly pulling for Gerard Kennedy because he was once my city councillor and seems like a decent guy, but given the Conservatives' non-disastrous rule so far, one wonders what the fuss is all about. I think this incarnation of the liberal party is merely a place holder for a couple of terms until the Conservatives lose their focus or settle into good ol' Federal patronage scandal of their own.

I think the next Liberal Prime Minister will come after Dion.

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Building an artificial intelligence that appreciates Mozart is easy. Building an A.I. that appreciates a theme restaurant is the real challenge - Kit Roebuck - Nine Planets Without Intelligent Life

james t kirk

There's only been one leader of the liberal party who was never Prime Minister in the history of the liberal party.

Pretty impressive.

As far as Dion is concerned, it's funny, but I thought he might win.

Ignatieff should have never ever been in the race. I didn't like the guy because I see him as not deserving of the honour. The guy hasn't lived in Canada in 30 years and thinks he just march in here like some celebrity from the USA and wow us all into buying a monorail (a little Simpsons reference)

I didn't like the way that Iggie got his nomination in Etobicoke Lakeshore (no-one else was allowed to put in their nomination) and I didn't like the fact that he was being portrayed by many liberals as some sort of "Intellectual" messiah a la Pierre Trudeau.

Nuts to that. I would have never ever voted for Iggie and I pretty much consider myself a small L liberal.

I can't help but wonder how long it will be before Iggie throws in the towel, takes his ball, and goes home to Harvard with the other egg heads.

I give him less than 6 months before he resigns and Etobicoke Lakeshore is up for a bi-election.

As for Rae, he was a terrible choice as well. I don't care what he says about renouncing his NDP past, the fact of the matter is that he would always be the former NDP premier of Ontario. Since I can't stand the NDP, I could have never voted for Rae either (though I would take him over Iggie.)

Kennedy was actually my guy of choice because he was my MPP (Parkdale High Park) and was generally held in high regard. I liked him because he was self made. He wasn't born into wealth like Rae and Iggie both were and remain. He was born in Winnepeg, came to Toronto, ran the Daily Bread Food Bank and got into politics. He's ok in my books. He was harpooned because no-one else knew who he was, and his french is about the same as mine - not good. I can only hope that in the next Federal Election that he is the liberal nomination for Parkdale High Park (Sarmite Bulte lost last time to the NDP's Peggy Nash.)

As to Dion, I must admit, I don't know much about him. Of the four, he was probably the most deserving by virtue of his history as a liberal for a decade or so.

I have to wonder how he will shape the liberal party. What will his policies be?

He's going to have an uphill battle convincing western Canada that he is less arrogant than Trudeau or Chretien. Then again, the liberals seem to be married to candidates from Quebec.

Are there no serious liberal candidates from Alberta or British Columbia or Ontario for that matter.

Will Dion win the next election??

Right now, I'd say no.

We'll see how that works out should the Conservatives screw up down the road.

percy

I thought from the beginning Dion had the best chance to win, not to become prime minister but to be Liberal leader.

Had Igna,..whatever his name is or Rae become leader, they would both retire after serving several years in opposition.

Dion has a substantial track record so I think he will do well but let's face facts right now,...I really don't think anyone will ever see a Liberal leader not be French, not from Quebec or both. It will never happen.

Ace_O_Spades

Anything can happen in Canadian politics it seems

I was pleased to see Ignatieff lose, he committed far too many gaffes, and if we're gonna topple the Conservatives we need someone who's not going to be saying stupid shit at every opportunity.

Time to start the march to the next election... I'll still be voting NDP, but for the love of god can we please get rid of Creepy Stephen Harper? The guy is about as shady and secretive a politician as I've seen; there's something inherently distrustful about micromanaging your cabinet, putting them on a leash with a muzzle, and having every decision run through you.

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Feh.

jth

when is Rick Mercer going to run?

I think Harper is crazy, but he's not a fool. Somehow something tells me that Harper's got the government on lock as a minority for a while to come... but since I don't know anything about this new guy, I can't really speak with any kind of education.

But I am a Liberal, so I say GO NEW GUY!

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"A real leader faces the music, even if he doesn't like the tune." - unknown quote

Ace_O_Spades

That would be awesome, and he would probably win. If not the PM, at least an MP

Think of the question period!

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Feh.

Poloboy

I liked Dion throughout the race, but I have to admit I never expected him to win. I must echo Ace's sentiments about Ignatieff...I think he ran his mouth too much and would have had trouble garnering significant support from the public. I think Dion will probably appeal to people because he's a centrist for the most part, and he's soft-spoken and amiable - but not so shy that you think he's up to something (like Harper). That's all appearances though. I think he's an intelligent person, is well spoken, and I generally like his policies, particularly his view of national unity (given the recent Quebeckers thing).

highthief

We were pulling for Dion, most of all, so glad he came through as top dog. Ignatieff? Why not ask Clinton to lead the party, he's about as Canadian. And Rae? Bob Rae was the worst thing to ever happen to Ontario, so very happy he didn't get in.

Kennedy impressed. I see a Liberal win in the next election and Kennedy with a plum position in cabinet.

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Si vis pacem parabellum.

Sticky

Liberals...feh.

Anyway, I just have two things to say (for now anyway).
- I am not interested in ever seeing Justin Trudeau head the Liberal party. And even moreso I never want to hear anything about Sacha either.
- Dion should really consider enrolling himself in an intensive English language speaking program. If you heard any of his speaches or answers to questions, he really could use some improvement.

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Sticky The Stickman

james t kirk

I would vote for Clinton.

That would be fine in my books.

Apparently whenever he comes to Canada (which is quite often) he gets asked if he'd consider running for PM. Of course, it's a joke, but what the hell, he'd probably win.

Yakk

Canada is 1/4 "West", 1/3 "Ontario", 1/4 "Quebec" and 1/6 "Other".

West: BC and Alberta
Ontario: Ontario
Quebec: Quebec
Other: Sask. Man. & Maritimes

To get a Majority government, you need 50% support. You can't expect to carry every seat in multiple regions, so...

If Dion can carry Ontario and Quebec, he has 1/4+1/3 = 7/12th of Canada. Toss in a bit of Other, and you have a Majority.

So you need to pretty much sweep:
Ontario + (West or Quebec)
West + Quebec + Other
for a Majority government.

For a Minority, with Quebec locked down by the Bloc, you need:
Ontario + Smattering elsewhere
or
West + Other
or
Split Ontario, and West

...

The West is growing. In a decade or two it will probably have the population of Ontario, and become a larger factor in elections.

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

highthief

The west is growing, yes. However, it is unlikely to have the population of Ontario in the near future.

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Si vis pacem parabellum.

Yakk

Alberta is growing at 2.95% per year.
Ontario is growing at 1.02% per year.

Assuming the Alberta growth rate picks up a tad, enough that "The West" (mainly Alberta and BC) together grow at the current Alberta growth rate, and that Ontario continues to grow at the same rate...

Alberta: 3,183,312
BC: 4,168,123
Manitoba: 1,165,944
Sask: 978,934
TheWest: 9,496,313
Ontario: 12,449,502

Ontario currently has about 33% more people than "The West".

If every year, "The West" grows 1.91% faster than Ontario.

...

Result: in about 15 years, "The West" match Ontario's population.

...

So I wouldn't say "unlikelly to have the population of Ontario in the near future", if the near future is 10 to 20 years. It only takes a small percentage growth rate edge, and a few decades, to swing population dynamics.

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

feelgood

Perhaps, but you're assuming that the population growth rate will hold for the next 10-20 years. The jump in population growth rate is mainly attributed to the booming economy in Western Canada. It's gotta decline eventually.

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Looking out the window, that's an act of war. Staring at my shoes, that's an act of war. Committing an act of war? Oh you better believe that's an act of war

Leto

you are NDP??

anyways, I think that given an election, and then the subsequent conservative win, followed by a second liberal leadership convention should see Gerrard Kennedy placed well.


Yay!! go west! I'm rootin for you. Then finally we will hear the end of the whining about the east from ex-Torontonians who have fled out there (My bro is on of the worst!)

Sticky

He won't carry Quebec.

The Liberals have left a really bad taste in my mouth...feh!
NDP...double feh (i.e. feh feh)!

Does this mean we can get a hockey team back in Winnipeg again?

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Sticky The Stickman

streak_56

I don't know about this, I haven't been back in Canada long enough, and I was gone for the liberal scandal... so basically I'm looking at the Conservatives to screw this one up before I actually give liberal a thought.

Plus, I thought that Dion was born in France? And came over here? Can anyone find out that info.

highthief

His dad is from France, IIRC.

I think the assumption that the other provinces will grow at a similar rate is unlikely, however, and the long term prospects of continued high immigration to Alberta is uncertain.

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Si vis pacem parabellum.

Yakk

Ok then. Assume that BC/Manitoba/Sask, together, grows at roughly the same rate as Ontario.

That leaves 6 million Ontario vs 3 million Alberta.

If Alberta outpaces Ontario growth by 3% per year, after 23 years "The West" matches the population of Ontario.

At 2% over Ontario, it takes 35 years.

This could happen if energy prices stay at or above current levels, or if Alberta leverages it's current resource windfall and builds up a secondary economic base and massively encourages immigration.

The trick is the continued growth. Exponential functions kick the crap out of initial conditions. That is why modern capitalist industrial economies are behemoths -- centuries of exponential growth.

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

Ace_O_Spades

Then the question becomes... does this massive influx of new people change the political climate of Alberta

This thread sure got derailed in a hurry

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Feh.

james t kirk

Doubtful.

Right now, the population of the GTA is greater than all of Alberta.

Alberta is growing in leaps and bounds, but what happens if oil tanks?

or, even drops below 40 per barrel? You can already see cracks in it showing up.

The economy of Alberta is based on one major commodity - oil, and a few lesser ones (grain, cattle, coal, etc.)

Alberta's economy was in the dumper for most of the 90's. The oil party can't and won't last forever.

If Alberta was smart, they'd be looking at growing beyond digging stuff out of the ground.

Leto

Yes, i was thinking the time is ripe for Alberta to invest in R&D, high technology, and providing knowledge based industrial training and development. With low taxes, the province should be able to attract business from a global perspective.

-- oops pervasive thread-jack...

Charlatan

These are all good thread jacks...

Alberta does need to think about the future. While the money is flush they need to invest in future economic growth that has nothing to do with oil.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Yakk

There is some of this going on -- the universites in the province are flush with cash, which makes them hire new faculty and encourage people to attend.

The students who attend from out of province end up being highly educated, and some of them will stick around.

The problem is that they have a serious local inflation problem, which makes international competition in most other industries more difficult.

They can fix this, somewhat, by building kick-ass infratructure that makes doing business there cheaper than elsewhere (which also avoids alot of the trade rules against it, methinks...)

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.