North Korea Missile Test - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Tully Mars · 04-02-2009, 06:44 AM

Quote:

North Korea has dramatically sharpened its rhetoric towards South Korea and Japan, in what are believed to be the final days before it launches a long-range rocket. The United States and its allies may have only limited options in responding to the launch.

Major South Korean media outlets quote unnamed government officials as saying North Korea has mobilized jet fighters to guard the site of a rocket launch expected in the days ahead.

At the same time, Pyongyang sharpened its rhetoric regarding the launch. A statement from the North's official Korean Central News Agency warns "if hostile forces make any slight move to intercept" the planned launch, the North's military will retaliate with force.

Last month, North Korea informed international agencies it would be launching a satellite for space research, sometime between this coming Saturday and next Wednesday. South Korea, Japan and the United States say the test is a disguised push to advance the North's ballistic missile technology.

The trajectory of the rocket is expected to pass over Japan. Tokyo says it will shoot down the rocket, if it seems like it will threaten Japanese territory. The North Korean news agency says Pyongyang would respond to such an action by "mercilessly dealing deadly blows," not only at Japan's anti-missile facilities but at "other major targets" as well.

Mike Chinoy, a senior fellow at the Pacific Council on International Relations, says North Korea knows the United States and its partners have limited options to deal with the launch.

"There's no downside, from the North Korean point of view, in trying this," he said.

The American position and that of its its regional partners is that the launch will violate a United Nations prohibition on North Korean ballistic missile tests, passed after the North tested a nuclear weapon. However, by skillfully packaging the launch as a space research mission, North Korea may have made the launch less offensive to two of its historical allies with veto power at the U.N. Security Council.

"They know, in the end, there's no appetite for meaningful sanctions on the part of the Chinese and the Russians. Without the Chinese and the Russians, any calls by Japan, South Korea, or the U.S. aren't going to go very far," said Chinoy.

Chinoy says the challenge for President Obama is to come up with a response to the launch that appears resolute, but does not damage the possibility of diplomatically engaging North Korea about its nuclear weapons.

"If the United States, after this launch, decides to move back toward negotiation - which I think is a sensible and logical thing to do - the optics are going to look very much like the North coerced Washington into coming back to the table, after its display of muscle flexing," said Chinoy.

On the sidelines of the G20 economic summit in London, President Obama is meeting with Asian leaders about a possible response to the launch.

VOA Story here

Stuff like this makes me nervous. Especially nervous during times of economic turmoil. Personally I don't think I know anyone who doesn't think Kim Jong-il is a stark raving lunatic. But lots of crazy people have started massive BS in the world over the years and this guy seems bent on creating shit.

Wonder how much of it is he just wants to feel like important and when he doesn't get attention does crap like this?

Or do you think he seriously wants to start a space program, you know prior to, say, feeding his people and supplying them with electricity?

oliver9184 · 04-02-2009, 07:05 AM

North Korea has mobilized its jet fighters? What good are 50 year old MiGs going to be if the goodies decide to step in and use force to stop the launch?

dksuddeth · 04-02-2009, 07:24 AM

I hope it happens. NK military needs to be dealt a very serious setback and this is the perfect catalyst.

Baraka_Guru · 04-02-2009, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dksuddeth

I hope it happens. NK military needs to be dealt a very serious setback and this is the perfect catalyst.

You hope what happens? The validation of North Korea's reasons for having a nuclear capability?

This is a bad time to take action against a volatile state, and it's a bad target. Let's not forget China's ties to North Korea and how they might take any serious action from the West.

Nothing is isolated. Look to the past for the many lessons on this.

Action against North Korea should be a last resort, i.e. if they actually do something threatening, as opposed to posturing.

oliver9184 · 04-02-2009, 08:49 AM

If like the article says they fire a missile which goes over Japan's land (which = over US bases) then who can tell if it's threat or posture?

shakran · 04-02-2009, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

You hope what happens? The validation of North Korea's reasons for having a nuclear capability?

This is a bad time to take action against a volatile state, and it's a bad target. Let's not forget China's ties to North Korea and how they might take any serious action from the West.

Nothing is isolated. Look to the past for the many lessons on this.

Action against North Korea should be a last resort, i.e. if they actually do something threatening, as opposed to posturing.

Agreed. It's a shame that the lessons of Iraq are already failing to teach people anything.

Willravel · 04-02-2009, 09:22 AM

Kim Jong Il isn't crazy, he's in a bubble. His advisers act as his link to the outside world, and they're all yes men in a big way, a way that makes the Bush Administration look like the most healthy and rational government in recent history. Obviously the trick to Kim Jong Il is bursting his bubble. How do we do that? Punishment. What kind of punishment? Sanctions. China's not interested in vetoing security council actions against North Korea anymore, and the current sanctions (on military and luxury items) aren't enough. How about everything but food and medicine?

Something occurs to me: has there ever been revolution in a country with nuclear weapons? While I don't like Il in power, I like the idea of chaos there even less.

Tully Mars · 04-02-2009, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willravel

Kim Jong Il isn't crazy, he's in a bubble. His advisers act as his link to the outside world, and they're all yes men in a big way, a way that makes the Bush Administration look like the most healthy and rational government in recent history. Obviously the trick to Kim Jong Il is bursting his bubble. How do we do that? Punishment. What kind of punishment? Sanctions. China's not interested in vetoing security council actions against North Korea anymore, and the current sanctions (on military and luxury items) aren't enough. How about everything but food and medicine?

Something occurs to me: has there ever been revolution in a country with nuclear weapons? While I don't like Il in power, I like the idea of chaos there even less.

A lot of what you're said here is very valid. Doesn't mean he's not stark raving mad.

---------- Post added at 02:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:41 PM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

Agreed. It's a shame that the lessons of Iraq are already failing to teach people anything.

Ditto, ditto and ditto.

How many times do we have to jump off the same cliff?

dksuddeth · 04-02-2009, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willravel

Kim Jong Il isn't crazy, he's in a bubble. His advisers act as his link to the outside world, and they're all yes men in a big way, a way that makes the Bush Administration look like the most healthy and rational government in recent history. Obviously the trick to Kim Jong Il is bursting his bubble. How do we do that? Punishment. What kind of punishment? Sanctions. China's not interested in vetoing security council actions against North Korea anymore, and the current sanctions (on military and luxury items) aren't enough. How about everything but food and medicine?

Something occurs to me: has there ever been revolution in a country with nuclear weapons? While I don't like Il in power, I like the idea of chaos there even less.

the only thing that further sanctions on NK will do is keep his military well fed and healthy. He lets the rest of his country survive on their own.

---------- Post added at 04:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:21 PM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

Agreed. It's a shame that the lessons of Iraq are already failing to teach people anything.

I'm sorry. I fail to see the comparison. North Korea, who we are still in a military conflict with, is going to launch a long range missile that will fly over their enemy of Japan, an ally of ours. How is that failing to learn the lessons of history?

Willravel · 04-02-2009, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dksuddeth

the only thing that further sanctions on NK will do is keep his military well fed and healthy. He lets the rest of his country survive on their own.

That's not how it works. North Korea requires importing and exporting in order to survive. It may be "centrally planned", but the country isn't self-sufficient. Also, the military is 100% expenditure. If no wealth is created in the country, eventually the military will bleed the country dry of funds. Modern militaries aren't self-sustaining.

Tully Mars · 04-02-2009, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willravel

Modern militaries aren't self-sustaining.

No they're not. They need a tax base to suck off and it's easier to get that tax base to agree to the scam if the populace is scared shitless. Every time I see any interviews with NK citizens they express just how worried they are that the US will invade.

Hmm, scaring the shit out of people to fund a huge military. Wonder if that's been (being?) done elsewhere too?

Ratman · 04-02-2009, 05:14 PM

This is supposedly an attempt to launch a communications satellite, not a missile test. While intel photos show that the tip of the rocket is bulbous, and therefore could contain a satellite, the rocket itself is the same vehicle they would use for long-range nuclear delivery. That's what mostly has the US, South Korea and Japan suspicious. There isn't much fear here that this is a disguised attempt to land a nuke somewhere, as it is highly doubtful that N.Korea has the ability to miniaturize it's nuclear capability to fit on a warhead for medium or long-range missiles. At any rate, the US Navy, and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense force have deployed a total of 4 Aegis ships, and the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force has numerous anti-missile batteries at the ready in case any stray pieces, like booster sections, are headed for Japanese territory. Both US and Japanese forces have stated that they will only shoot down stuff that is likely to damage Japanese property or jeopardize Japanese lives. N Korea has stated that if there is any interference with this launch, it will be considered an act of war (in fact they mentioned it as the first step in a Japanese effort to recolonize). They have promised to strike "deadly blows" to Japanese targets. We really aren't so concerned with these threats (I live in Japan), as the only way for them to do this is with missiles. More than likely, there would be some kind of feint to Japan, but the real issue would be with S Korea. N Korea's army is basically a land invasion force, so that's where they would go. They would want to use the bulk of their missiles to soften the S Korean targets ahead of the invasion. As there is no love lost between the Koreas and Japan, and Japan's constitution forbids participation in the shooting part of a shooting war, unless the home islands are directly threatened (as seen above, they are Self-Defense Forces), The N Koreans would not have much to fear from quick Japanese support to S Korea.

All that being said, care should be taken with sanctions and blockades of N Korea. Japan's official line is that they were forced to attack America because they were being choked out of raw materials like steel, rubber, oil, and so on. The key here is "forced". We made them do it because of the sanctions and blockade. There is fear that N Korea could try to use this same justification for using their nuclear deterrent. At any rate, this could be an interesting week-end!

spectre · 04-05-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willravel

Kim Jong Il isn't crazy, he's in a bubble. His advisers act as his link to the outside world, and they're all yes men in a big way, a way that makes the Bush Administration look like the most healthy and rational government in recent history.

THE VICE GUIDE TO NORTH KOREA - Episode 1 - The South's DMZ - VBS.TV

This all makes so much sense watching the vids on that link. It's amazing how that entire country is dedicated to enriching the ego of one man and how the entire state has fallen into line with it. I disagree though, will. Whether or not he's crazy, I don't know, I would lean towards it, but he's certainly delusional. I just think that everyone is so terrified of him and what he would do that they just tell him what he wants to hear, enabling all of his delusions and making them worse. As a result, the entire country cheers as he brings them to the brink. It's really very sad.

MSD · 04-06-2009, 07:09 AM

What happened when they tried to build a nuke (even if the test was faked)? We gave them a few billion dollars a year to not do it again. We've given them every incentive to develop long range missiles that we can pay them a few billion more to not use.

You options for taking military action against them are either a massive preemptive nuclear strike that would have to hit civilian areas with a military presence, or writing off at least a quarter of South Korea's civilian population and all military forces within a hundred miles of the demilitarized zone. NK has spent years digging in bunkers and artillery positions right up to the DMZ, and their contingency plan if attacked involves something like 10 million artillery shells into South Korea in the 3 hours (that comes out to about 925 shells per second.) Seoul has 10 million people and would be reduced to rubble in seconds. This is as close to mutually assured destruction as you can get without nukes (which I don't believe NK has.) The only thing we can do is wait for the government to crumble from within.

I was recommended this documentary: "Children of the Secret State," about North Korea's refugees inside the country and the conditions most of the 22 million people there live in. They eat dirt, or grass if they're lucky, and cannibalism is common as people get more desperate. It's upsetting to see what's happening and know there's no way to help.

Children.of.the.Secret.State.-.North.Korea.avi

roachboy · 04-06-2009, 07:17 AM

i thought this was kind of funny actually. you know, the g20 is happening, much of the international community's collective attention (judging by the official Directors of Attention) has collapsed into the economic situation that is of it's own making and right in the middle of it north korean shoots a missile into the pacific with, they say, a satellite whose function was to be directing streams of north korean music.

it seems pretty transparent as gestures go.

04-02-2009, 07:24 AM	#3 (permalink)
dksuddeth Junkie Location: bedford, tx	I hope it happens. NK military needs to be dealt a very serious setback and this is the perfect catalyst. __________________ "no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything. You cannot conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him."

04-02-2009, 05:14 PM	#12 (permalink)
Ratman Addict Location: Somewhere... Across the sea...	This is supposedly an attempt to launch a communications satellite, not a missile test. While intel photos show that the tip of the rocket is bulbous, and therefore could contain a satellite, the rocket itself is the same vehicle they would use for long-range nuclear delivery. That's what mostly has the US, South Korea and Japan suspicious. There isn't much fear here that this is a disguised attempt to land a nuke somewhere, as it is highly doubtful that N.Korea has the ability to miniaturize it's nuclear capability to fit on a warhead for medium or long-range missiles. At any rate, the US Navy, and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense force have deployed a total of 4 Aegis ships, and the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force has numerous anti-missile batteries at the ready in case any stray pieces, like booster sections, are headed for Japanese territory. Both US and Japanese forces have stated that they will only shoot down stuff that is likely to damage Japanese property or jeopardize Japanese lives. N Korea has stated that if there is any interference with this launch, it will be considered an act of war (in fact they mentioned it as the first step in a Japanese effort to recolonize). They have promised to strike "deadly blows" to Japanese targets. We really aren't so concerned with these threats (I live in Japan), as the only way for them to do this is with missiles. More than likely, there would be some kind of feint to Japan, but the real issue would be with S Korea. N Korea's army is basically a land invasion force, so that's where they would go. They would want to use the bulk of their missiles to soften the S Korean targets ahead of the invasion. As there is no love lost between the Koreas and Japan, and Japan's constitution forbids participation in the shooting part of a shooting war, unless the home islands are directly threatened (as seen above, they are Self-Defense Forces), The N Koreans would not have much to fear from quick Japanese support to S Korea. All that being said, care should be taken with sanctions and blockades of N Korea. Japan's official line is that they were forced to attack America because they were being choked out of raw materials like steel, rubber, oil, and so on. The key here is "forced". We made them do it because of the sanctions and blockade. There is fear that N Korea could try to use this same justification for using their nuclear deterrent. At any rate, this could be an interesting week-end! __________________ The difference between theory and reality is that in theory there is no difference. "God made man, but he used the monkey to do it." DEVO

04-06-2009, 07:17 AM	#15 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	i thought this was kind of funny actually. you know, the g20 is happening, much of the international community's collective attention (judging by the official Directors of Attention) has collapsed into the economic situation that is of it's own making and right in the middle of it north korean shoots a missile into the pacific with, they say, a satellite whose function was to be directing streams of north korean music. it seems pretty transparent as gestures go. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

04-02-2009, 07:05 AM	#2 (permalink)
oliver9184 Psycho	North Korea has mobilized its jet fighters? What good are 50 year old MiGs going to be if the goodies decide to step in and use force to stop the launch?

04-02-2009, 08:49 AM	#5 (permalink)
oliver9184 Psycho	If like the article says they fire a missile which goes over Japan's land (which = over US bases) then who can tell if it's threat or posture?

04-02-2009, 09:22 AM	#7 (permalink)
Willravel ... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.	Kim Jong Il isn't crazy, he's in a bubble. His advisers act as his link to the outside world, and they're all yes men in a big way, a way that makes the Bush Administration look like the most healthy and rational government in recent history. Obviously the trick to Kim Jong Il is bursting his bubble. How do we do that? Punishment. What kind of punishment? Sanctions. China's not interested in vetoing security council actions against North Korea anymore, and the current sanctions (on military and luxury items) aren't enough. How about everything but food and medicine? Something occurs to me: has there ever been revolution in a country with nuclear weapons? While I don't like Il in power, I like the idea of chaos there even less.