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Old 04-02-2009, 05:14 PM   #12 (permalink)
Ratman
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Location: Somewhere... Across the sea...
This is supposedly an attempt to launch a communications satellite, not a missile test. While intel photos show that the tip of the rocket is bulbous, and therefore could contain a satellite, the rocket itself is the same vehicle they would use for long-range nuclear delivery. That's what mostly has the US, South Korea and Japan suspicious. There isn't much fear here that this is a disguised attempt to land a nuke somewhere, as it is highly doubtful that N.Korea has the ability to miniaturize it's nuclear capability to fit on a warhead for medium or long-range missiles. At any rate, the US Navy, and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense force have deployed a total of 4 Aegis ships, and the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force has numerous anti-missile batteries at the ready in case any stray pieces, like booster sections, are headed for Japanese territory. Both US and Japanese forces have stated that they will only shoot down stuff that is likely to damage Japanese property or jeopardize Japanese lives. N Korea has stated that if there is any interference with this launch, it will be considered an act of war (in fact they mentioned it as the first step in a Japanese effort to recolonize). They have promised to strike "deadly blows" to Japanese targets. We really aren't so concerned with these threats (I live in Japan), as the only way for them to do this is with missiles. More than likely, there would be some kind of feint to Japan, but the real issue would be with S Korea. N Korea's army is basically a land invasion force, so that's where they would go. They would want to use the bulk of their missiles to soften the S Korean targets ahead of the invasion. As there is no love lost between the Koreas and Japan, and Japan's constitution forbids participation in the shooting part of a shooting war, unless the home islands are directly threatened (as seen above, they are Self-Defense Forces), The N Koreans would not have much to fear from quick Japanese support to S Korea.

All that being said, care should be taken with sanctions and blockades of N Korea. Japan's official line is that they were forced to attack America because they were being choked out of raw materials like steel, rubber, oil, and so on. The key here is "forced". We made them do it because of the sanctions and blockade. There is fear that N Korea could try to use this same justification for using their nuclear deterrent. At any rate, this could be an interesting week-end!
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