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Old 09-20-2007, 04:22 PM   #1 (permalink)
Getting it.
 
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Some said it would never happen but here we are looking at a Canadian dollar that is on par with the US dollar (and all signs indicate it will continue to grow).

The combination of high oil prices, high gold prices and the US Fed cutting interest rates caused the fall of the US dollar and the rise of the Canadian.

In my former business as an exporter, this sort of news was not good news. I did most of my business in US$ and when I brought those home to Canada they were worth quite a bit.

I just wanted to get some of the Canadians to chime in with how this is effecting you. I'd also be interested in hearing what if any impact this will have on Americans here (even if it's just a blow to your collective egos )
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Old 09-20-2007, 04:27 PM   #2 (permalink)
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First off, i thought I would never see the day that it would be on par. I remember the days of .64 cents! I have mixed feelings on this. Ontario gets alot of manufacturing jobs because of the weak dollar along the 401.

I'm an account manager and 90% of my clients are American, hurts both my sales and commission coming back over the border. I don't have a strong enough economic education to guess how this going to hurt or help long term.

I am noticing a trend that downsizing and cost cutting seem to be a common theme among American companies, could be me just in a rut though.

I went to Boston a couple of weeks ago, cashed 1k CAD into American and got 970 back! amazing. Felt a bit like Christmas lol. So use to getting that 64 cent rate.

Last edited by canuckguy; 09-20-2007 at 04:29 PM..
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Old 09-20-2007, 04:37 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I think the only difference (that i'll notice) is the running jokes about everything Canadian being only a % American not working any more. I have a Canadian friend that recently had a birthday he turned 26, and we were all like "what is that, like 19 American?
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Old 09-20-2007, 05:30 PM   #4 (permalink)
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But everything still costs more here! A 60K car here is still only 45-50 K in the US. Ditto across the board on almost every product. Time for a little consumer revolt!
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Old 09-20-2007, 05:39 PM   #5 (permalink)
 
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here's the ny times analysis of the dollar collapse:

Quote:
Euro Reaches All-Time High Against Dollar
By CARTER DOUGHERTY

FRANKFURT, Sept. 20 — Investors around the world dumped the dollar today, pushing it to an all-time low of $1.40 against the euro and to parity with the Canadian dollar for the first time in three decades as currency traders digested the full implications of the Federal Reserve’s new course for interest rates.

The frenzied selling began early in the day in Europe, never let up, and reached across the Atlantic as traders concluded that the lower borrowing costs the Fed introduced on Tuesday would dampen the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like stocks, bonds and real estate just as other central banks are raising rates to create the opposite effect.

With the Fed’s action layered atop a weakening American economy that is menaced as well by the prospect of a retreat by consumers who have driven growth for years, the dollar radiated instability. Its traditional role as a refuge in times of crisis, evident as recently as early August, appeared all but forgotten.

“It’s pretty ugly right now for the dollar,” said Jim McCormick, the London-based chief of currency strategy for Lehman Brothers International. “But the markets are having a very rational response to what the Fed did on Tuesday.”

The dollar dipped as low as $1.4094 in midday trading in New York, having cracked the $1.40 level in London, the world’s currency trading hub. The dollar also lost ground against the pound, with sterling now worth roughly $2.

The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc also rallied strongly against the dollar, a highly unusual development since interest rates are still comparatively low in both those countries. The yen registered its biggest daily drop against the Japanese yen in two weeks.

Against the Canadian dollar, currency of the largest United States trading partner, the dollar tumbled to one-to-one, a level not seen since the 1976, the early phase of a currency crisis that would eventually send shock waves through the world economy.

“It seems light years from five years ago when the dollar was threatening to drop below 60 cents,” said Douglas Porter, an economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns, the brokerage unit of the Bank of Montreal. “It will affect the psychology here in a big way.”

Gold prices also soared, reaching a 27-year high at $746.50 an ounce in New York trading before closing at $739.90, up $10.40.

Still, currency analysts are dodging the label “dollar crisis” for the moment, preferring to see today’s events as the logical outcome of the Fed’s surprise decision to lower its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, to 4.75 percent — a step intended to quarantine the wider economy from the effects of a housing market collapse and soothe jittery credit markets.

But there is little doubt that attitudes toward the dollar are evolving faster that most analysts had expected.

“What is changing here is that people have been living with this notion that the dollar might get weaker briefly and then recover,” said Thomas Stolper, a currency strategist with Goldman Sachs in New York. “But that view is evolving.”

The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, acknowledged the gravity of the crisis during an appearance before a House committee today, while rationalizing the rate cut as part of the careful balance the central bank has to strike between combating inflation and promoting growth.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., at the same event, said the Bush administration was considering allowing the federally-backed mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy and securitize “jumbo” loans of over $417,000. In theory, the step would help relax stretched mortgage markets.

President Bush also chimed in with soothing words, even as the world ever-more heatedly debates whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession. “The fundamentals of our nation’s economy are strong,” Mr. Bush said at a news conference. “There is no question that there is some unsettling times in the housing market.”

But almost daily, the American economy seems to be providing fresh evidence that the real estate slump might jar consumers into spending less — a fear evidently shared by policy makers at the Fed. That has given a fresh impetus to traders bearish on the dollar.

“I’m not sure you can argue that it is just interest rate differentials driving the dollar’s weakness,” said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange research at Calyon in London. “The Fed is validating this course, but underlying that is concerns about economic growth.”

In Europe, the dollar’s record-breaking tumble set off a political reaction that has become common in recent years, with the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, calling for a continent-wide effort to reverse its course.

“Let’s say that it’s a change in level that concerns all of us Europeans, and it’s clearly a point we must address together among Europeans,” Ms. Lagarde said during a trip to China, Reuters reported.

French worries about the rise of the euro, the unified currency established in 1999, have gone largely unheeded in other European capitals. Ms. Lagarde’s German counterpart, Peer Steinbrück, even went so far as to say, “I love a strong euro.” Yet even in Germany, the export dynamo of Europe, some spotty evidence is starting to accumulate that the currency’s strength is chipping away at sales by making shipments abroad more expensive.

Ralf Wiechers, chief economist for VDMA, the association representing the machine tool makers whose performance has been the backbone of the German boom, said that market share was holding up thanks to stiff worldwide growth. But currency values are starting to influence how much money they are making.

“The world economy is creating the volume,” Mr. Wiechers said. “The exchange rate is starting to decide what the profit margin is.” As an example, he cited makers of printing presses, who face tough competition from American and Japanese companies that now enjoy a considerable exchange-rate advantage over the Germans.

Yet at its broadest level, the strong euro offers some advantages to Europe. Most notable is the ability to acquire raw materials, above all oil, with a muscular currency.

Oil prices set another record on Thursday, reaching $82.55 in New York. In theory Europeans are insulated by the spike through the euro, but that effect is bound to distribute itself in various ways, economists said.

For example, big importers and refiners of crude can expect a shot in the arm, maybe even enabling them to hire more people. But manufacturing employees who get laid off because sales ebb on the back of a strong euro cannot simply go into the energy business.

“In a textbook case, what you would in effect see is big shifts of economic resources,” said Erik Nielsen, chief Europe economist at Goldman Sachs. “But this is an economy in which some win and some lose.”

In Canada, meanwhile, economists generally agree that the Canadian dollar’s ascent, which picked up speed about two years ago, is mostly related to the Canadian economy’s health rather than shortcomings in the United States’ economy.

Demand, much of it from Asia, has bolstered prices for several majorCanadian exports including minerals, oil and wheat. At the same time the Canadian government, which restructured its operations and finances during the 1990s, is on track to report its 11th consecutive budget surplus.

As the chief economist of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, a lobby group, Jayson Myers, finds little professional joy in the Canadian dollar’s ascent. But he readily acknowledged that achieving parity would bolster Canadians’ spirits.

“It makes a lot of people feel pretty good,” said Mr. Myers, who is based in Ottawa. “They can go on trips to the States again, they can go on trips to Europe. After 16 years of always seeing their currency in an inferior position, Canadians now have strong buying power.”

But that, in the end, may also mean that some of the biggest gains from a strong Canadian dollar will ultimately accrue outside of Canada, particularly to the United States travel and retail industries.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/20/bu...yxClMzJWi4ENdA

this is an interesting turn of events....i'm curious to see how things play out.
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Old 09-20-2007, 05:52 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I don't know why this is big news. The US dollar has slowly been depreciating against other major currencies for a few years now (Hitting all time lows along the way).

*Shrugs*

What did you think would happen when you run a huge national defecit?
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Old 09-20-2007, 06:06 PM   #7 (permalink)
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It's great news for the economies of border cities like Bellingham, WA. The entire 1-5 corridor north of Mount Vernon, WA is fueled by Canadian money. During the 1980s and early 90s it created a lot of economic opportunities for that area, but when the exchange rate went in the U.S.'s favor, the Canadians disappeared.

As the dollar has weakened in the last couple of years, the Canadians have returned in droves. It looks like it will stay that way.

It's the only upside I can see to the weakening dollar; it's not good for me personally as I like to travel to Canada, and now that's not exactly ideal as it costs more now to visit than it did in the past. Bummer.
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Old 09-20-2007, 06:12 PM   #8 (permalink)
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*Ahem*

People should watch what the dollar does against the yen, as that could spell doom for the vast majority of financial markets.
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Old 09-20-2007, 06:16 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I have absolutely no knowledge or understanding of finance. I do know that if Mr. Bush wants to lessen the effect of a terribly expensive course of action which involves both a 2-front war and an unending string of record breaking budget deficits, he can do it by making the American dollar worth less. By that, I mean that a debt of a hundred billion dollars (to throw out a number for the sake of having a number to throw out) becomes less onerous if those dollars are only worth a fraction of what they used to be. The debt will then be a fraction of what it used to be. Magically the debt is reduced.
If that is a good thing or not, I don't know. I remember back in the 70's I would see headlines where Canadian business and political figures were crying about the strong Canadian dollar and what a tragedy it was for us. These same figures cried just as hard when the weak Canadian dollar sank to 60-odd cents. It made us look like an attractive third-world country to some American tourists who could come up here and have a good, cheap time.
At the end of the day there will be canny fellows with swimming pools full of cash while the majority of us labour away for a few bucks at a time. Such is life.
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Old 09-20-2007, 06:26 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Doom is comin'.

When we tank, it's gonna make a really big splash.
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Old 09-20-2007, 07:19 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I don't really notice a difference in my life. All that really irritates me is the price difference on things like books, magazines, movies, and games. The american prices are still about 20% lower.
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Old 09-20-2007, 07:20 PM   #12 (permalink)
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First off the Dollar to Canadian Dollar is not in an American Vacuum. Canada has VAST quantities of ores in Iron and Copper. These two items have skyrocketted in value, especially considering the China/India infrastructure boom.

This whole Bush hiding the deficit theory belongs in Paranoia. Many countries devalue their money in order to create an economic boom.

"But Seaver, that makes no sense!"

They do it in order to make their goods sell for a relatively cheaper price compared to other countries. If we want to balance the trade deficit this is one way to go about it.

If you want to actually have an idea about our economic balance just look at the Euro. When they made it the Euro was a 1:2 with the Dollar. It's 1:1.3 now, having come closer to 1:1 even with all of the mortgage problems we're having.

In short, nothing to worry about. Instead of US tourists flocking to Canada spending money there, it will be fairly balanced if not in our favor now.
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Old 09-21-2007, 02:29 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaver
First off the Dollar to Canadian Dollar is not in an American Vacuum. Canada has VAST quantities of ores in Iron and Copper. These two items have skyrocketted in value, especially considering the China/India infrastructure boom.
And we're swimming in oil - possibly the biggest single reason, given the doubling of the price of oil over the last couple of years.
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Old 09-21-2007, 04:11 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah454
I don't really notice a difference in my life. All that really irritates me is the price difference on things like books, magazines, movies, and games. The american prices are still about 20% lower.
There is increasing pressure to put the prices closer to parity (on books anyway). But this puts a lot of strain on small Canadian publishers, who have tight margins and if on the rare occasion they turn a profit, it is only possible due to a number of tax credits and government grants. The price squeeze, though it may seem fair, actually doesn't seem as much when you account for the disparity of the economies. The American book market is much larger than the Canadian market. For example, did you know a best seller in Canada can be achieved at 2,000 copies?

If you understand marketing, you will know that pricing is a complex thing that isn't easily reduced to a direct comparison with the products of a foreign market.

If anything, the dollar value parity will continue to put this pricing pressure on publishers, but I'm not sure this is a good thing because who knows how long this will last?
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Old 09-21-2007, 04:59 AM   #15 (permalink)
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i was planning on going to work for an American Cruise Ship line this winter which pays in American $. For a canadian, that means tax free money. However they pay about 50% less than my current employer. With the dollar at it's old level, I would be making almost the same kind of money; with the dollar at par, suddenly it's not as good of a deal.
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Old 09-21-2007, 05:27 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Having lived thru several cycles of reversing US to Canadian dollar value, and over that time also having gotten somewhat numbed by doom sayers predicting immenent financial collapse due to the various US trade deficits, I really don't see anything particularly alarming or new happening.
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Old 09-21-2007, 02:42 PM   #17 (permalink)
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A couple of things come to mind.

1. Literally when the C$ hit bottom, Sheri Cooper, Chief Economist with the Bank of Montreal publicly stated that Canadians should adopt the US dollar and bite on the loss before the loonie hit 50 cents or worse.

Ba ha ha ha, what a genius.

But old Sheri wasn't alone, Garth Turner (another genius) said the same thing. And he's an MP now. Then again, he was also touting nortel as buy at 85 a share (or 850 in today's nortel world)

2. We are getting RIPPED off when it comes to big ticket purchases.

For example, Automobiles.

The 2007 version of my car is a full $11,000.00 cheaper in the USA.

If you happen to be in the market for a Z06 Corvette, you can save yourself a full 20 grand buying it in the USA.

Why is it that manufacturers are making like bandits on this?

As far as I am aware, the only big ticket item that has dropped in price is the Harley Davidson.

Other than that, the automanufactureres are RIPPING Canadians blind.

It's actually quite easy to buy a car in the US and bring it back to Canada. There are 5 states that have 0% sales tax, with New Hampshire being pretty darn close to Toronto.

If I was in the market for my car today (instead of when I bought it new in 2005) I'd be buying it from a New Hampshire dealer for sure.

11 grand is 11 grand.

I could get my head around 1 or 2 grand difference, but not 11.

Here is my car in Canda.....

http://www.infiniti.ca/en/models/bui...delCode=G4XG77

Here is my car in the USA, note even the freight is half as much.....

http://build.infiniti.com/configurat...g35&tr=_TE_AWD

What gives with that????

Last edited by james t kirk; 09-21-2007 at 02:45 PM..
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Old 09-21-2007, 02:56 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Economies of scale.
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Old 09-21-2007, 03:04 PM   #19 (permalink)
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The AU$ is climbing vs the US$ also.

The main effect for me is probably that fuel prices aren't as high as they'd otherwise be.
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Old 09-21-2007, 03:05 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Here's a post from another site on how to buy a car in the USA and bring it back to Canada......



Well, I did it and here is the checklist of things you gotta do to bring over a vehicle... with the internet it is so much easier to do. I bought my Toyota Tundra CrewMax for $44,000 USD brand new. Here in the GTA, the same vehicle was running around $60,000 CDN.

1. Determine the warranty ramifications - consult with the Canadian arm of your vehicle manufacturer and outline your scenario (they may chose not to honor it for the first six months or more however I believe Safety recalls have to be honored)
2. Notify U.S. Customs and Border Protection at your port of export and for that matter Canada Border Services Agency (Customs) at your port of import one week in advance of your purchase
3. To save yourself aggravation and qualify for the greatest discount insist on full purchase from the U.S. dealer (no U.S. financing required). If you need and qualify for a new car loan arrange it in Canada. Disclose what you are intending to do to your bank or trust. Confirm the logistics involved in wiring the funds (EFT) from your bank to it’s correspondent bank in the U.S. You want to be sure that everything is in order prior to handing over your funds to the U.S. Dealer.
4. Pay RIV fee ($209 all Provinces except Quebec which is $224) - Arrange CTC inspection within 45 days of import
5. Have the U.S. dealer provide a Letter of Compliance or recall clearance letter. It states whether or not there are any outstanding safety defects on your vehicle and recalled by the manufacturer. The recall letter must come from either the manufacturers head office or authorized American dealer (not re-seller). Contact the U.S. head office of the manufacturer ask if the dealer can issue the same. RIV will only accept a letter is on company letterhead with the manufacturers logo. U.S. dealerships must include address as well as the manager's name and signature. The VIN (17 digit vehicle identification number) must be included in the letter.
6. You will find that generally for an admissible new vehicle to pass inspection, we need:
a. Daytime running lights (DRL’s) [Not an issue with current model GM’s. DRL’s should be programmable by any reputable service department of most manufacturers. Arrange it with your US Dealer service dept prior to purchase]
b. Metric Speedometer [Metric may already exist on most speedometers. If not, changing it at a Canadian dealer may only cost about $300.00 (they have to input the correct odometer reading pursuant to the Excise Act). Another alternative to pass inspection is “stickers” on your speedometer - Contact the RIV to confirm].
7. Pay GST (7%) and appropriate PST or HST in Atlantic Canada at the port of entry - reference the Bank of Canada for the foreign exchange rate on the date of sale.
8. There is no duty if your vehicle originated in Canada or the United States.
9. There will be $100 excise tax if the vehicle has air conditioning
10. If they are particularly diligent, you may have to pay CBSA addtionally imposed excise taxes. If your passenger car weighs more than 2,007 kilograms or 4,425 pounds. Multi-purpose vehicles (vans and SUV’s) and station wagons have a greater weight allowance, 2268 kilograms or 5000 lbs. This fee is scaled in increments of 15 Kg but the most you may pay would be about $300 +/- for something as big as a Chevrolet Suburban.

That's pretty much it. I'll just add a few points:

-Most cars make the RIV list, but not all, so do be sure that yours is on it. While most cars make it, some would be very costly or next to impossible to get into compliance.

-Tethers for child seats can be an issue for some cars. Again, most cars will make the grade, but some won't. The RIV list should help with this.

-Notifying the US port of exit by fax is essential, but a few day's notice may be sufficient. I'd double check this on your own, don't take my word for it.

-The metric speedometer shouldn't be issue for most cars, because US speedometers almost always have metric markings as a secondary marking, which seem to be good enough.

-For the odometer, a sticker that makes it clear that the reading is in miles and that provides a math conversion formula (if I'm not mistaken, this is provided by Canadian Tire) might be enough, but double check this. If you have a digital odometer that can flipped between standard and metric, then obviously you need not do anything.

-You might also require bilingual stickers for your airbags, safety equipment, etc. If the warning labels on the passenger visor are not in French, a bilingual sticker is required. (Sorry, I don't have more details about where you get the conversion stickers, or what happens if you don't.)

Again, the real equipment issues seem to be focused on DRL's, child tethers, the odometer sticker and bilingual markings. The fax to US customs is a must, as is the "recall letter". Warranties can also be an issue, depending upon the brand, so be careful. Changing gauge clusters should not be necessary for virtually any car.

Cheers and happy saving $$$ while buying new vehicles in the US for cheaper than used ones in Canada!
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