Quote:
Originally posted by happyraul
The probability of not tossing heads for even 30 tosses is already so close to zero that it might as well be zero. This is not incorrect. This statement is equivalent to: the probability of getting 30 tails in a row is so close to zero it might as well be zero, which is correct. You are right that you have a 50% chance of tossing heads, but that does not change the fact that if you start tossing coins for the rest of your life you will probably never get 30 of either side in a row (I may be exaggerating here, but you get the point I hope). So yeah you could toss tails forever, but you won't.
I don't see how the coins relate to the topic though, so I don't know if this weakens your point.
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- The problem lies in this: assume you toss tails 30 times. "Well," you say to yourself, "the possibility of me tossing tails
again is so low it might as well be zero, so my next toss will be a heads." And you toss ... and lo and behold, it's a
tails!. You scratch your head in puzzlement and say, "Okay, well,
now the possibility of tossing heads is even closer to zero, so my next toss must be a heads." And you toss again - and yet again, you get a tails! And again, and again, and again. Therefore, you
cannot say that probability close to zero might as well be zero, so long as you are dealing with independant events.
- The coins relate to my argument in this fashion: unless you believe in chaos theory, I argue that events in the universe are, more or less, like tosses of that coin. Or rather, let us consider an infinite-sided dice, and consider some kind of celestial being (for the sake of example), which tosses this remarkable dice to determine the events of the universe. I argue that it is entirely possible to
never roll the same number twice.
- To clarify - though you claim (and most agree) that the universe is infinite, I claim that there are an infinite number of possible events or sequences of events. When comparing infinite trials against an infinite number of possibilities, we are no longer able to assert that all possibilities will eventually come about - just as we could not assert that given infinite time we could toss all possible heads/tails sequences of a fair coin.
- Oh, I would also like to ask a question: so what? Even if life exists, even if parallel universes do exist, so what? Introducing a topic requires that you indicate why the listener/reader should care, to some extent, as a matter of common courtesy. At least, so I would like to think.