Quote:
Originally posted by Kyo
- Consider this experiment - I toss a coin n times, where the nth toss is the first heads. Obviously, the possible values of n is the set of natural numbers 1, 2, 3, ... The probability of rolling a certain n=c, where c > ~20, becomes absurdly small, and approaches zero as c increases. However, it is completely possible to never toss a heads. Many people argue at this point that the probability of not tossing heads for even 30 tosses is already so close to zero that it might as well be zero. That is incorrect - since each toss is independant, I have a 1/2 chance of tossing heads in each case, regardless of how many times I have tossed the coin. So I could continue to toss tails forever.
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The probability of not tossing heads for even 30 tosses is already so close to zero that it might as well be zero. This is not incorrect. This statement is equivalent to: the probability of getting 30 tails in a row is so close to zero it might as well be zero, which is correct. You are right that you have a 50% chance of tossing heads, but that does not change the fact that if you start tossing coins for the rest of your life you will probably never get 30 of either side in a row (I may be exaggerating here, but you get the point I hope). So yeah you could toss tails forever, but you won't.
I don't see how the coins relate to the topic though, so I don't know if this weakens your point.