Quote:
Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Brett Arends' ROI - MarketWatch
I must say that this is rather interesting. I suppose all of this comes down to metrics and how you measure economic influence, etc., but by this measure, I see that this is going to happen much sooner than I had expected. I have read a number of indications suggesting that China's economy is set to surpass the U.S. economy, but I thought it was much later down the road than five years; I thought it was more than ten or twelve.
- What do you think about this?
- Does this suggest a shift in power/influence, or is it merely economics?
- Will this pose political problems in the U.S.? Domestically? Internationally?
- Is this an inevitability beyond much of the control of the U.S., or is there merely something to be fixed in the U.S. economy to keep it #1?
- Is this an indication that the U.S. needs be more change-oriented with regard to retooling/rejigging its economy?
|
I think the last bullet hits at the heart of the problem for the US.
We've not focused on retooling the economy. Our govt investments in in R&D have been relatively flat over the last 10 years at the same time the private sector had greater incentives to make money by producing nothing (speculating on the market) than by being innovative.
Here are a couple indicators:
Quote:
China could overtake the United States as the world's dominant publisher of scientific research by 2013, according to an analysis of global trends in science by the Royal Society....
...To compare the output of different countries, the Royal Society's report collated information on research papers published in two time periods, 1993-2003 and 2004-2008. It counted research papers that had an abstract in English and where the work had been peer-reviewed.
In both periods, the US dominated the world's science, but its share of publications dropped from 26% to 21%. China's share rose from 4.4% to 10.2%. The UK's share declined from 7.1% to 6.5% of the world's papers.
Projecting beyond 2011, the Royal Society said that the landscape would change "dramatically". "China has already overtaken the UK as the second leading producer of research publications, but some time before 2020 it is expected to surpass the US." It said this could happen as soon as 2013.
China poised to overhaul US as biggest publisher of scientific papers | Science | The Guardian
|
And while we responded to a message of "drill, baby, drill" and $billions/yr in tax incentives and subsidies to big oil while cutting investments in clean energy (see the 05 energy bill):
Quote:
In 2009, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts, China surpassed the United States and other members of the G-20 for the first time as the leader in clean energy investment. Last year clean energy investment in China totaled $34.6 billion, compared with $18.6 billion in the United States. Last month, Chinese officials announced they will spend $75 billion a year on clean energy.
China leading the world in clean energy investment
|
In order to remain competitive in a global economy, our focus has to change. Unfortunately, the money behind maintaining the status quo has made that an uphill battle.
And now, we're faced with the tough decisions of spending on education, R&R, clean energy, health technology, etc. at a time when overall spending needs to be cut.
We're in a deep hole as a result of our shortsightedness over the last 10 years and there wont be an easy way out.