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The overall employment numbers shouldn't come as much of a surprise. When companies are uncertain about future growth, they tend to be conservative with their employee costs.
However, you might find that durable goods are up (and maybe even nondurable goods) because companies are spending money on increasing their efficiency through upgrading systems, etc., thereby being able to do more with less with regard to employees. This makes sense for them for two or three reasons: 1) fewer employees will save money, 2) interest rates are low (rock bottom even), and/or 3) certain aspects of the stimulus spending has encouraged such investment.
So you get an environment that boosts the stock market and maintains a growth in industrial production despite weak jobs numbers and even a slippage in industrial capacity.
As bad as it looks for jobs at the moment, the stage is set for an economic expansion. All that's left is for it to build more steam and for the general public to catch wind of it. And when they do (that is, when they realize there is money to be made), the jobs will follow.
Of course, the way it looks, this will take some time to play out. Many people are still jittery. The more I think of it, the more I see 2011 as a turnaround year. The job numbers won't start looking up until after that time. It will probably start looking better during the presidential election, which will be interesting.
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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön
Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot
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