Originally Posted by Daniel_

I think old alegiences are stronger than you think, people vote clanishly (which is why there are so many safe seats), and need a big push to vote against their tradition.

In '79, people voted FOR Thatcher, because she seemed new and fresh and full of god ideas.

Through her years in charge she was hated by more people than Brown is now, there were riots in the streets over Poll Tax for God's sake - and she sill got in again!

Major was a lame duck with a hopeless cabinet and infighting, Kinnock was popular and polling higher than Conservatives, and he lost.

If all the Conservatives can offer is "we're not Labour", I think the swing in the polls will not be reflected in full in a general election vote.

Unless the Conservatives can come to the table with an active plan that looks like it offers solutions and above all HOPE to the bulk of the country, they can't be certain to get in.

Hatred of the incumbent causes people to stay away from the polls.

Desire for something new gets apathetic voters to turn out for change, and that's what the Conservatives need to start doing - right now they are making the same mistake as Kinnock; they assume they'll win so they're not bothering to offer an actual programme.