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Originally Posted by Strange Famous
Well, the only precedent in modern times for the kind of swing that the Tories need to win an oveall majority is the swing TO Labour in 1997
But the demographics are changing...SNP is now the party of Scotland, Labour came second to the Tories in WALES in the last Euro elections. The level of unpopularity of the govt to me seems similar to the feeling against the Conservative Party in 1997... the only thing that Labour seem to be clinging onto is that the economy might pick up, and UKIP might take significant votes off the Tories in some of the marginals, but I dont see a scenario that Labour form the next govt. Even if its a hung parliament, a Lib Lab pact seems far less likely then Clegg and Cameron doing business. But if we have another 6 months like the last, an impotent lame duck PM limping along from disaster to crisis, you could be looking at 50 Labour MP's in the next parliament. I really dont think thats an exegeration. You cant read too much into council and Euro elections - but Labour do not have a single conty council now, they came behind the Greens all through the Southern regions...
I dont know how much people on this board will know about the 10% tax debacle... but there are a lot of people who will not vote for the Govt that did that to the poorest people in society. A lot of core vote that just will not turn out or if they do will vote Green (or as we saw in the Euro's, BNP)
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They need around 45% of the vote to win outright, which they simply won't get without a mass no-show at the voting booths. Labour, I believe, need only in the low 30's% to score an outright win. Stupid, stupid, stupid first past the post voting system.
I can't see the scare campaign that Labour will undoubtedly run being so spectacularly unpopular that the Tories get in unaided. The LibDems won't be backing the Tories unless there's some sort of outright pact for Single Transferable Vote Proportional Representation (Inshallah).
Just for some background on the Tory party for folks outside the UK, it's truly terrifying how many of their current and prospective MP's went through the same tiny number of ultra-elite schools, live in castles and either possess or have renounced titles in living memory. The dear leader was a member of "
The Bullingdon Club", as was the man who speaks on their economic affairs and a smattering of others in the shadow cabinet...
Quote:
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"I don't think an evening would have ended without a restaurant being trashed and being paid for in full, very often in cash. [...] A night in the cells would be regarded as being par for a Buller man and so would debagging anyone who really attracted the irritation of the Buller men"
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Clearly, this type of chap has his finger the living pulse of everyday men and women throughout the land, and most certainly wouldn't be a naked tool for an insidious power grab for the ridiculous uber-elite that the UK has failed so far to expunge.
69% of UK land is owned by... wait for it.... 6000 families (so that's somewhere between 0.1% and 0.3% of the population, depending on the numbers you apply on average to a family taken over ludicrous extremes or 10 to 30), which is frankly ludicrous... Only nearly matched for inequity by Spain... A country barely 30 or so years out of a brutal, pro-monarchist, pseudo-feudal dictatorship.
Fills my heart with pride to see this nation's great people filled with right-wing propaganda every day. Oh yes.