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Well, the only precedent in modern times for the kind of swing that the Tories need to win an oveall majority is the swing TO Labour in 1997
But the demographics are changing...SNP is now the party of Scotland, Labour came second to the Tories in WALES in the last Euro elections. The level of unpopularity of the govt to me seems similar to the feeling against the Conservative Party in 1997... the only thing that Labour seem to be clinging onto is that the economy might pick up, and UKIP might take significant votes off the Tories in some of the marginals, but I dont see a scenario that Labour form the next govt. Even if its a hung parliament, a Lib Lab pact seems far less likely then Clegg and Cameron doing business. But if we have another 6 months like the last, an impotent lame duck PM limping along from disaster to crisis, you could be looking at 50 Labour MP's in the next parliament. I really dont think thats an exegeration. You cant read too much into council and Euro elections - but Labour do not have a single conty council now, they came behind the Greens all through the Southern regions...
I dont know how much people on this board will know about the 10% tax debacle... but there are a lot of people who will not vote for the Govt that did that to the poorest people in society. A lot of core vote that just will not turn out or if they do will vote Green (or as we saw in the Euro's, BNP)
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"Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate,
for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing
hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain
without being uncovered."
The Gospel of Thomas
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