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The market is very hard to figure out. If that were not so then we would all be rich. The one thing I've learned over the years is that when most people are bullish it is generally a good time to sell and when most people are bearish it is generally a good time to buy. I don't think this works on those rare occasions when the market resets due to dramatic changes in fundamentals like unforseen credit crisis etc.. I don't think many of us would have held stocks last fall if we had known about all the upcoming bank failures.
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