Quote:
Originally Posted by Willravel
What's your take on the reality of the market? Bear or bull? What are you investing in (feel free to be vague here if you're not comfortable)? How much are you keeping in the bank for fear that nothing is safe? Do you think the banks are safe?
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My take on the reality of the market is that some people are making money and some are not.
The people who went to cash/shorted the market/etc. in early 2000, then started to re-invest in 2003, went to "cash" in 2008 and are now re-investing are experiencing a tremendous "bull" market. Even those with less than perfect timing but with a discipline to minimize losses and to follow (rather than trying to anticipate) market shifts in market trends are doing pretty well. The market is a teacher, wise people learn from the past.
Financials were greatly under valued a few months ago, they have had a good run and are now consolidating.
Energy stocks are following a similar pattern, when oil reach its low a month or so ago, energy stocks were under valued. Now they are running strong. I expect they will reach a peak when the price of oil does.
Technology is due for a run, we are just waiting for the next big thing. I don't think the next version of Windows is going to do it, but it is possible we will see a big upgrade cycle in the PC market.
The china market is going to out perform the US, FXI is a eft and a good way to play China.
Small cap stocks will out perform large cap stocks when economic growth is strong, I expect the economy will start to grow again starting later this year, but small cap stocks will move before you get data on that.
Infra structure companies and commodities, like copper/steal were hit hard and will see a bounce as well.
I am betting the "green" stocks go nowhere, I think it is mostly hype. I am avoiding windmills, solar, and nuke power.
Oh, and I love the dividend yield on the cigarette company Phillip Morris. They are in business with the government (taxes,settlements to state governments, child health care) so they will be protected from competition and from going out of business. The dividend is safe.