Quote:
Originally Posted by FuglyStick
Absolutely; I'm just saying it is premature to claim the market is headed up or down at a time when the market is in such a state of flux. I don't believe the rules that used to apply to market analysis are applicable anymore; the definitions of "capital," "assets," and "liabilities" are evolving in the current economy. We are still very much in a transitional stage, and could be for a while yet, as a new economic paradigm emerges to fill the vacancy left by the failure of "trickle-down," "supply side," whatever you want to refer to the collapsed economy as.
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All of this would assume that one uses fundamental analysis as a basis for trading in markets.
That's perfectly well and good but there are other ways to skin the cat.
I trade using technical analysis. Any chartist will tell you that the current primary trend of the market is down.
We have had a very powerful bear market rally the last few months. Depending on the extent of the current pullback and the subsequent rally we could re-enter a primary uptrending (ie bull) market at some point.
There are good ways to make money in either condition but for most investors with a long only bias and a tendency to hold positions long term, waiting for a primary bull makes sense.