http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080113/recession_odds.html
Or is it a fear based political campaign story?
Sure I will say that the market is too inflated right now. And the 1,000 point correction in the Dow was correct (even though I believe the stock market is really just based on speculation and hope, not real sound financials anymore. Just because a company can grow fast, doesn't make it a good company). The housing market where I live hasn't changed very much (maybe 10% down in last six months, but it has gone up 30% in the past 4 years). It is just a correction since new homes aren't getting bought up by speculators and flippers anymore. I could understand that the home builders could see a recession. Even Greenspan predicted/caused investors to get leery of the high home prices and realize that the homes aren't worth as much as people think.
Quote:
Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession
Monday February 26, 2007 8:34 am ET
Alan Greenspan Warns That U.S. Economy May Slip Into
Recession by End of Year
HONG KONG (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy
might slip into recession by year's end.
He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001
and that there are signs the current economic cycle is
coming to an end.
"When you get this far away from a recession
invariably forces build up for the next recession, and
indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan
said via satellite link to a business conference in
Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins
... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we
are in the later stages of a cycle."
"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in
the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not
making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward
into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.
Greenspan said that while it would be "very
precarious" to try to forecast that far into the
future, he could not rule out the possibility of a
recession late this year.
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5
percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a
2 percent rate in the third quarter. A survey released
Monday by the National Association for Business
Economics showed that experts predict economic growth
of 2.7 percent this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6
percent rise in 2002.
Greenspan also warned that the U.S. budget deficit,
which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in
four years, remains a concern.
"The American budget deficit is clearly a very
significant concern for all of us that are trying to
evaluate both the American economy's immediate future
and that of the rest of the world," he said via
satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007
Conference.
Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover
effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.
"We are now well into the contraction period and so
far we have not had any major, significant spillover
effects on the American economy from the contraction
in housing," he said.
|
And now people supposedly took out home equity loans and are in debt, but the bankruptcy law passed last year won't let them write off the debts anymore. I'm sure the same people in CC debt last year are in the same position this year. There isn't that much different about this year from last. It's not like unemployment is at 10% or 20% to qualify for the 'recession' term being thrown around.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080113/...itics_obama_dc
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/blog/view/?id=25248
(And I even think that a little recession would be a good thing, as long as I don't lose my job. Ha Ha.)