Do you think we are headed for a recession? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

ASU2003 · 01-13-2008, 04:59 PM

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080113/recession_odds.html

Or is it a fear based political campaign story?

Sure I will say that the market is too inflated right now. And the 1,000 point correction in the Dow was correct (even though I believe the stock market is really just based on speculation and hope, not real sound financials anymore. Just because a company can grow fast, doesn't make it a good company). The housing market where I live hasn't changed very much (maybe 10% down in last six months, but it has gone up 30% in the past 4 years). It is just a correction since new homes aren't getting bought up by speculators and flippers anymore. I could understand that the home builders could see a recession. Even Greenspan predicted/caused investors to get leery of the high home prices and realize that the homes aren't worth as much as people think.

Quote:

Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession
Monday February 26, 2007 8:34 am ET
Alan Greenspan Warns That U.S. Economy May Slip Into
Recession by End of Year

HONG KONG (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy
might slip into recession by year's end.

He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001
and that there are signs the current economic cycle is
coming to an end.

"When you get this far away from a recession
invariably forces build up for the next recession, and
indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan
said via satellite link to a business conference in
Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins
... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we
are in the later stages of a cycle."

"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in
the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not
making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward
into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.

Greenspan said that while it would be "very
precarious" to try to forecast that far into the
future, he could not rule out the possibility of a
recession late this year.

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5
percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a
2 percent rate in the third quarter. A survey released
Monday by the National Association for Business
Economics showed that experts predict economic growth
of 2.7 percent this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6
percent rise in 2002.

Greenspan also warned that the U.S. budget deficit,
which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in
four years, remains a concern.

"The American budget deficit is clearly a very
significant concern for all of us that are trying to
evaluate both the American economy's immediate future
and that of the rest of the world," he said via
satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007
Conference.

Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover
effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

"We are now well into the contraction period and so
far we have not had any major, significant spillover
effects on the American economy from the contraction
in housing," he said.

And now people supposedly took out home equity loans and are in debt, but the bankruptcy law passed last year won't let them write off the debts anymore. I'm sure the same people in CC debt last year are in the same position this year. There isn't that much different about this year from last. It's not like unemployment is at 10% or 20% to qualify for the 'recession' term being thrown around.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080113/...itics_obama_dc
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/blog/view/?id=25248

(And I even think that a little recession would be a good thing, as long as I don't lose my job. Ha Ha.)

Willravel · 01-13-2008, 05:06 PM

Many signs seem to point in the direction of recession and I am making *some* preparations just in case such as prioritizing the full payment of all credit cards and loans and closing several accounts and investments for a more stable representation of my investment.

I'm not going armageddon, though, in case I'm wrong.

eribrav · 01-13-2008, 05:36 PM

I believe we are already in recession.
The statistics that will make it official will of necessity lag behind the actual occurence.

Elphaba · 01-13-2008, 05:47 PM

A recession has already been called by some of the Wall Street crowd. The start date may be in question, but the recession is here.

loquitur · 01-13-2008, 06:59 PM

Of course we're heading for a recession. We've had five or six years of growth, so it's about due. If not this year then next.

Sun Tzu · 01-14-2008, 03:52 AM

Ofcourse this is only my opinion but it not a matter of if but to what degree. Wouldnt that be shitty if Iran decided to switch on us as nice as we are being to them. Gotta love China though they still seem to think that their worthless Walmart products are wroth holding on to all the paper back by "our good word"., and oh yeah we got the bombs. Will we ever see this again?

aceventura3 · 01-14-2008, 01:31 PM

Are we headed for a recession? That is the question here and in many headlines. A better question might be why are we headed for a recession?

On one hand slow or negative growth in the US will lead to fewer imports into our country, putting economic pressures on countries that export to us. They may be forced to re-value their currencies relative to the dollar.

Slow or negative growth may lead to lower real long-term interest rates. Lessening the impact of ARMS scheduled to reset.

Slow or negative growth may pressure Congress for more tax cuts or making the Bush tax cuts permanent.

Slow or negative growth may pressure oil producing countries addicted to the new income from high oil prices to increase production causing the price of oil to drop.

Slow or negative growth may lead to the economy becoming the number one issue in the up-coming elections. Many people believe Republicans can win on that issue but not on the issue of Iraq (a vast right-wing conspiracy).

Whatever happens and whatever the reason you can bet 'smart money', i.e. 'the rich' are going to come out ahead and average working people are not going to know what hit them. Working poor people will be less likely to be able to buy homes because of increased mortgage regulations. The prices of import goods will go up. Working middle class people will give up more control of their financial lives in the interest of "economic stimulus packages". Our only hope is that we ignore the doom and gloom headlines and hope the elected folks in Washington don't screw things up too badly.

01-13-2008, 05:47 PM	#4 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	A recession has already been called by some of the Wall Street crowd. The start date may be in question, but the recession is here. __________________ "You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007

01-14-2008, 03:52 AM	#6 (permalink)
Sun Tzu Conspiracy Realist Location: The Event Horizon	Ofcourse this is only my opinion but it not a matter of if but to what degree. Wouldnt that be shitty if Iran decided to switch on us as nice as we are being to them. Gotta love China though they still seem to think that their worthless Walmart products are wroth holding on to all the paper back by "our good word"., and oh yeah we got the bombs. Will we ever see this again? __________________ *To confine our attention to terrestrial matters would be to limit the human spirit.- Stephen Hawking*

01-14-2008, 01:31 PM	#7 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	Are we headed for a recession? That is the question here and in many headlines. A better question might be why are we headed for a recession? On one hand slow or negative growth in the US will lead to fewer imports into our country, putting economic pressures on countries that export to us. They may be forced to re-value their currencies relative to the dollar. Slow or negative growth may lead to lower real long-term interest rates. Lessening the impact of ARMS scheduled to reset. Slow or negative growth may pressure Congress for more tax cuts or making the Bush tax cuts permanent. Slow or negative growth may pressure oil producing countries addicted to the new income from high oil prices to increase production causing the price of oil to drop. Slow or negative growth may lead to the economy becoming the number one issue in the up-coming elections. Many people believe Republicans can win on that issue but not on the issue of Iraq (a vast right-wing conspiracy). Whatever happens and whatever the reason you can bet 'smart money', i.e. 'the rich' are going to come out ahead and average working people are not going to know what hit them. Working poor people will be less likely to be able to buy homes because of increased mortgage regulations. The prices of import goods will go up. Working middle class people will give up more control of their financial lives in the interest of "economic stimulus packages". Our only hope is that we ignore the doom and gloom headlines and hope the elected folks in Washington don't screw things up too badly. __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

01-13-2008, 05:06 PM	#2 (permalink)
Willravel ... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.	Many signs seem to point in the direction of recession and I am making some preparations just in case such as prioritizing the full payment of all credit cards and loans and closing several accounts and investments for a more stable representation of my investment. I'm not going armageddon, though, in case I'm wrong.

01-13-2008, 05:36 PM	#3 (permalink)
eribrav Junkie Location: upstate NY	I believe we are already in recession. The statistics that will make it official will of necessity lag behind the actual occurence.

01-13-2008, 06:59 PM	#5 (permalink)
loquitur Junkie Location: NYC	Of course we're heading for a recession. We've had five or six years of growth, so it's about due. If not this year then next.