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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
It's only a matter of time before we start seeing Russia export far more goods and services than we've seen.
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Doubtful.
First of all Russia is the only major power with a declining population. 141 Million and falling due to low birth rates and high death rates. Then to add to that, whenever someone in Russia gets a good education, they jump on the first opportunity that gets them on a plane out of the country.
From my personal view when I traveled to Russia last January, I found it astonishing how my flight into Russia from Germany had very few people on board and most were Germans. My flight leaving Russia for Germany was packed full of Russians.
While I was there, I sat in on a lesson of a 15yr old girl learing English. I asked her why English and why specifically the American style of English. She answered that she wanted to go to America. Most Russians who learn a foreign language leave Russia. And even Russians who don't learn a language but learn a skill also leave, then figure out the other country's language later. My wife is Russian, I met her parents in Portugal. Her father went there for work and then learned Portuguese, her mother followed later. As my wife has told me, when a Russian recieves an education and becomes smart, they see what is in Russia and they see what is in other countries. The decision becomes simple; leave Russia.
Before Russia can become an industrialized nation with an economy that can be felt globally, they have to find a way to stop the mass exodus of their own people. And unfortunatly, the only idea I heard was to return to the soviet way of closing the border exits to Russians. To me that does not sound promising.
The other reason I consider it doubtful that Russia will be a major exporter of goods (other than weapons) is that when I was there, I could not see a single Russian name in the stores. Everything was foreign made (oddly just like the US). With exception to weapons and military tech, Russia is severly lacking in domestic production facilities. And any foreign investment to create such production inside Russia is drying up because of Putin's policies of kicking foreign business out of Russia. And as for domestic sources of money to spur investmet; as my wife has told me, the only people in Russia with money are either in the (corrupt) Government, or in organized crime.