hmmm shoe, i see it like this, having been in situations like this before:
first, if your gut is telling you that something is odd, don't discount that. i've found my gut is usually a pretty good compass. from your OP it's not clear that she knew he'd be there at the first call, so the first thing you need to do is simply talk with your girl about when she knew the details of the situation. i know it's hard, but don't 'act' angry or accuse her of things. frequently, this will tend to lead her to the defensive, and you may not get the truth out of it for a long while. people do things when they feel they are under attack.
2. it is possible that your girl would have / did / intended to just shut the fucker down at the party, and end the bullshit melodrama that may have been latent there.
in the end i agree with rascal: ultimatums tend to fuck things up...it creates stress where there shouldn't be any. you pretty much have to decide if you're going to trust her or not, and if you are you've got to just let that be. it might backfire in your face, but the alternative will to.
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