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Sticky · 04-28-2005, 07:58 AM

But it is not about the budget.
And if we even get to a vote on the budget in the house it still won't be about the budget.

It is about a minority government.
A minority government has an inherrant flaw - they do not hold a majority of the seats.

What we are faced with now is polls telling us that the liberals do not have enough support to be able to win an election.
Harper was going to jump on that at his first opportunity if it means the conservatives can benefit.
Duceppe's numbers are awesome in Quebec so he will go along even if he cant stand the Tories.

Then Martin hears that nobody likes his budget he has 3 options.
- He can change it to get support from the Bloc. Bloc + Liberals would be a good percentage of Canadians
- He can change it to get support from the Tories. Tories + Liberals would be a good percentage fo the population
- He can change it to get support from the NDP. NDP + Liberals does not give him a majority and it is also not even close to the representation of the population he would get with the first two options.
- Do nothing.

The first 2 options (above) were really out of the question because the Tories and the Bloc have seen the numbers (polls), they want to topple the Gov't now.

So he is left with
- deal with the NDP and still not be ensured of his budget passing
- do nothing and die now

So to keep himself alive (for an undetermined amount of time) he signs a deal with teh NDP. The deal does not ensure him of his budget passing nor does it give him good representation across the country. In addition, this pisses the Tories and Bloc off even more.

So now we are
- 151 Libs and NDPs
- 153 Bloc and Tories

So now the fate of the current government rests in the hands of 3 independants.

So what can Martin do next.
Matin: Hmm maybe I can appoint some Conservative or Bloc MPs to sentate ro soemthing else effectively taking them out of the house and shifting the numbers in my way.

So I say again. Is this about the budget?

I think not.

04-28-2005, 07:58 AM	#24 (permalink)
Sticky	But it is not about the budget. And if we even get to a vote on the budget in the house it still won't be about the budget. It is about a minority government. A minority government has an inherrant flaw - they do not hold a majority of the seats. What we are faced with now is polls telling us that the liberals do not have enough support to be able to win an election. Harper was going to jump on that at his first opportunity if it means the conservatives can benefit. Duceppe's numbers are awesome in Quebec so he will go along even if he cant stand the Tories. Then Martin hears that nobody likes his budget he has 3 options. - He can change it to get support from the Bloc. Bloc + Liberals would be a good percentage of Canadians - He can change it to get support from the Tories. Tories + Liberals would be a good percentage fo the population - He can change it to get support from the NDP. NDP + Liberals does not give him a majority and it is also not even close to the representation of the population he would get with the first two options. - Do nothing. The first 2 options (above) were really out of the question because the Tories and the Bloc have seen the numbers (polls), they want to topple the Gov't now. So he is left with - deal with the NDP and still not be ensured of his budget passing - do nothing and die now So to keep himself alive (for an undetermined amount of time) he signs a deal with teh NDP. The deal does not ensure him of his budget passing nor does it give him good representation across the country. In addition, this pisses the Tories and Bloc off even more. So now we are - 151 Libs and NDPs - 153 Bloc and Tories So now the fate of the current government rests in the hands of 3 independants. So what can Martin do next. Matin: Hmm maybe I can appoint some Conservative or Bloc MPs to sentate ro soemthing else effectively taking them out of the house and shifting the numbers in my way. So I say again. Is this about the budget? I think not. __________________ Sticky The Stickman