Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Can someone help me figure out the Dodgers?

kutulu · 01-12-2005, 10:27 AM

Ok, there is a lot of information to digest here.

Marlins Trade:
Mota - True, he is a great pitcher. However, because of his great ability he will demand a high salary. He'll probably want something more than $5M/yr and when you consider the fact that he is just a setup man and should usually pitch about 70 innings in a normal season. Considering a 1 or 3 starter should pitch over 210 innings in a season, $5M for a non-closer (perhaps even a closer) relief pitcher is equivalent to spending $15M on a starting pitcher. It's just not a good use of money
LoDuca - A good hitter but his production always falls in the second half. As he ages, his numbers will decline.

Overall, the value of the trade depends on how effective Penny is. His injury is somewhat mysterious but if he's healthy he'll be a very valuable member of the rotation. The other main player you got back was Hee Sop Choi. He is an excellent firstbaseman with a great eye (takes lots of walks) and has above average power. He won't cost much but he'll produce if Tracy just gives him playing time.

Finley - Finley is almost 40. Despite his conditioning, his numbers will decline next season. In fact, even though he hit 35 HR last year, all of his stats declined from his 2003 production. Look at the trend with Finley:
Year AVG OBP SLG OPS
2002 .287 .370 .499 .869
2003 .287 .363 .500 .863
2004 .271 .333 .490 .823

Do you see the pattern there? Things will only get worse for Fins (and as a DBack fan I've always liked Finley a lot). He also lost a step defensively. He ended up signing for 2 yrs, 14M. Way too much for his age with his declining stats.

Beltre - First of all, it's a joke that you called him the Ultimate MVP. His numbers didn't even touch Barry's numbers (and I'm a proud Barry hater). The only thing Beltre had on Bonds was 3 HR in 220 more AB. Look at the numbers:
.362/.609/.812 vs .334/.388/.629 - Who is the obvious MVP?
Now actually about Beltre. His redeeming quality is his age. At 25 he should be hitting his prime now. Last season showed that he is there. However, the numbers were so insanley above his previous career highs that it was obvious to me that he was playing WAY above his abilities. He peaked at the right time, contract year. After six years of mediocrity, he put up monster numbers. As a result, he will regress, a lot. That said, his contract wasn't anything insane, it's only an average of 12.5/yr and he's probably worth it. I'd rather have Beltre than Drew.

Cora vs Kent - I don't care how good of a fielder Cora is, his hitting is nothing compared to Kent. The only thing consistant about Cora's hitting is that he is consistantly bad. He has a career OBP of .314 (about 20 points below league average) and a career OPS of .665 which is dreadfull. You can't combine low OBP with no slugging. Kent, on the other hand has a career OBP of .352 and a career OPS of .858. That's way above league average for a 2B. His offense is more than enough to make up for his defensive liabilities. I see it as a big upgrade for LA.

I liked that they resigned Perez. Despite his assholish nature, he is a good pitcher. Lowe is good and he might benefit from pitching half his games in LA but he rode his world series sucess and made everyone forget that he's posted ERA's of 4.47 and 5.42 in the last two years. I'm taking a we'll see approach on Lowe. No matter what he got more than he's worth.

I sort of understood the Green trade from LA's perspective. They got Drew, so Green was obsolete. Drew is by far a better hitter than Green but will he really be healthy enough to play the whole season? I really can't believe that LA kicked in 10 million to get it done. They really only got a catcher that may or may not do well at the mlb level. Juarez (one of the minor leaguers they got) might become a good MLB pitcher, but he won't be anything great.

01-12-2005, 10:27 AM	#7 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	Ok, there is a lot of information to digest here. Marlins Trade: Mota - True, he is a great pitcher. However, because of his great ability he will demand a high salary. He'll probably want something more than $5M/yr and when you consider the fact that he is just a setup man and should usually pitch about 70 innings in a normal season. Considering a 1 or 3 starter should pitch over 210 innings in a season, $5M for a non-closer (perhaps even a closer) relief pitcher is equivalent to spending $15M on a starting pitcher. It's just not a good use of money LoDuca - A good hitter but his production always falls in the second half. As he ages, his numbers will decline. Overall, the value of the trade depends on how effective Penny is. His injury is somewhat mysterious but if he's healthy he'll be a very valuable member of the rotation. The other main player you got back was Hee Sop Choi. He is an excellent firstbaseman with a great eye (takes lots of walks) and has above average power. He won't cost much but he'll produce if Tracy just gives him playing time. Finley - Finley is almost 40. Despite his conditioning, his numbers will decline next season. In fact, even though he hit 35 HR last year, all of his stats declined from his 2003 production. Look at the trend with Finley: Year AVG OBP SLG OPS 2002 .287 .370 .499 .869 2003 .287 .363 .500 .863 2004 .271 .333 .490 .823 Do you see the pattern there? Things will only get worse for Fins (and as a DBack fan I've always liked Finley a lot). He also lost a step defensively. He ended up signing for 2 yrs, 14M. Way too much for his age with his declining stats. Beltre - First of all, it's a joke that you called him the Ultimate MVP. His numbers didn't even touch Barry's numbers (and I'm a proud Barry hater). The only thing Beltre had on Bonds was 3 HR in 220 more AB. Look at the numbers: .362/.609/.812 vs .334/.388/.629 - Who is the obvious MVP? Now actually about Beltre. His redeeming quality is his age. At 25 he should be hitting his prime now. Last season showed that he is there. However, the numbers were so insanley above his previous career highs that it was obvious to me that he was playing WAY above his abilities. He peaked at the right time, contract year. After six years of mediocrity, he put up monster numbers. As a result, he will regress, a lot. That said, his contract wasn't anything insane, it's only an average of 12.5/yr and he's probably worth it. I'd rather have Beltre than Drew. Cora vs Kent - I don't care how good of a fielder Cora is, his hitting is nothing compared to Kent. The only thing consistant about Cora's hitting is that he is consistantly bad. He has a career OBP of .314 (about 20 points below league average) and a career OPS of .665 which is dreadfull. You can't combine low OBP with no slugging. Kent, on the other hand has a career OBP of .352 and a career OPS of .858. That's way above league average for a 2B. His offense is more than enough to make up for his defensive liabilities. I see it as a big upgrade for LA. I liked that they resigned Perez. Despite his assholish nature, he is a good pitcher. Lowe is good and he might benefit from pitching half his games in LA but he rode his world series sucess and made everyone forget that he's posted ERA's of 4.47 and 5.42 in the last two years. I'm taking a we'll see approach on Lowe. No matter what he got more than he's worth. I sort of understood the Green trade from LA's perspective. They got Drew, so Green was obsolete. Drew is by far a better hitter than Green but will he really be healthy enough to play the whole season? I really can't believe that LA kicked in 10 million to get it done. They really only got a catcher that may or may not do well at the mlb level. Juarez (one of the minor leaguers they got) might become a good MLB pitcher, but he won't be anything great.