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At this point, the nationwide polls are nothing more than window dressing. Bush doesn't care if he loses California by 2 or 22 points, and Kerry couldn't care less if Texas goes to Bush by 5 or 25 points; therefore, the action is concentrated in a handful of states. I've been watching the state-by-state polling on Rasmussen and RealClearPolitics. Reapportionment actually favors Bush; if all the states voted as they did in 2000, Kerry would get 5 (I think that's right) fewer electoral votes. Thus, he has to hold all those states, and pick up one with 6 or more electoral votes. Conversely, Bush has to hold all his from last time, and virtually any state switching to Kerry causes Bush to lose.
There's been a lot (and will be, I'm sure) said about the usefulness of the electoral college, but I can tell you one big benefit. I'm in Arkansas, where Kerry pulled out his staff and money about 2 weeks ago. There aren't any presidental ads running here for either candidate unless it's on the national broadcasts. It's so nice!
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