Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community  

Go Back   Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community > The Academy > Tilted Politics


 
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-18-2004, 11:09 AM   #1 (permalink)
Crazy
 
Does anyone feel the polls are underestimating Dems this year?

I feel like these official polls showing a close race are naturally more skewed to be answered by older, more Republican individuals. Minorities are not properly accounted for nor are younger individuals, all which would skew more Democratic. Not many young and poor have house phones, i.e. either cell phones or nothing, and these people will most likely not vote for Bush. Normally they would probably not vote at all but I feel this time around will be different. Heck, I voted for Bush and am switching to Kerry this time, no poll has accounted for my vote!
Tralls is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:21 AM   #2 (permalink)
Pissing in the cornflakes
 
Ustwo's Avatar
 
I do, vote fraud can't be counted in polls. I've lived in Chicago, I know of what I speak.
__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.
Ustwo is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:31 AM   #3 (permalink)
Banned
 
Location: BFE
Actually, I think it's the other way around. I think the Republicans are going to win by a far larger majority than people think is possible.

Soccer moms have become Security moms. And no matter how hard Kerry tries to paint himself as a hawk on the War on terrorism, people ain't buying it. "I am the anti-war candidate"--John "appeasement" Kerry"
daswig is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:33 AM   #4 (permalink)
Crazy
 
You see the articles already coming out of FLA regarding voter problems with the absentee and early voting ballots. I definitely believe voter fraud is a real problem and think it helped put the wrong man in charge 4 years ago, even though I did vote for him...I wont ever let myself forget that mistake!

Elaborate on what you know...always interested.
Tralls is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:34 AM   #5 (permalink)
Crazy
 
Daswig, but soccer moms are reflected in the polls...provide some evidence as to why you think they may be underestimated as skewing Right compared to thier representation in the polls taking place.
Tralls is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:38 AM   #6 (permalink)
Banned
 
Location: BFE
tralls, just call it a gut feeling, coupled with the DNC's head begging people to "vote early and often" in the media polls after the debates. It looks like there's a coordinated effort to skew polls in Kerry's favor underway, and I don't think the support is actually there. BTW, you did notice that it was DEMOCRATS engaging in voter fraud in Florida already, didn't you?
daswig is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:39 AM   #7 (permalink)
Banned
 
Location: BFE
tralls, which side is the master of voting fraud? One word for ya: "Daley".
daswig is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:50 AM   #8 (permalink)
 
trickyy's Avatar
 
i heard that cell phone users will vote in a similar proportion to the rest of the country. this does not account for people without a phone, though.

one thing that i find interesting is that many polls on tv are just simply bush vs. kerry. while it may be a good measure of the overall desire of the country, the popular vote doesn't matter in the election. in fact, kerry has such a substantial lead in places like california and new york, these polls could make the race appear closer than it actually is.

but when you get down to each state, the electoral race is actually very close as well. here is a link to the best election gauge that i've found. you may need to sign up for the free la times subscription if the link doesn't show up.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,1851284.flash

(if that doesn't work, go here and click on the map graphic:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...5465.htmlstory )

the interactive map allows you to update swing states (and any others) as you see fit to predict the outcome of the election. updated polling data is included for each state. the last few times i filled this out (assuming battleground state polling to be 100% accurate) the election was decided single state.
trickyy is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:53 AM   #9 (permalink)
This vexes me. I am terribly vexed.
 
Superbelt's Avatar
 
Location: Grantville, Pa
Actually the dems are being purposefully underrepresented in polls this year.

Gallup polling, which does polling for Time, USA Today and CNN, is oversampling Republicans to a disgusting degree. They are estimating that about 12% more republicans than Democrats are going to vote. This, despite the widespread dislike of Bush among Democrats and the fact that Democrats in the past few election cycles have been voting at a higher rate than Republicans.

That's why the recent poll by Gallup, as reported by CNN shows Bush winning 52 to 46. Completely flying in the face of virtually every other poll out there showing Kerry leading.
Superbelt is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:53 AM   #10 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Location: Orlando, FL
I also feel Dems are being underestimated. It's being shown too, with polls such as the Gallup's market share having a higher Republican number polled than Democratic.
Seandq is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:54 AM   #11 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Location: Orlando, FL
Quote:
Actually the dems are being purposefully underrepresented in polls this year.

Gallup polling, which does polling for Time, USA Today and CNN, is oversampling Republicans to a disgusting degree. They are estimating that about 12% more republicans than Democrats are going to vote. This, despite the widespread dislike of Bush among Democrats and the fact that Democrats in the past few election cycles have been voting at a higher rate than Republicans.

That's why the recent poll by Gallup, as reported by CNN shows Bush winning 52 to 46. Completely flying in the face of virtually every other poll out there showing Kerry leading.
Wow, I just posted what you just said..at the exact same time. Heh.
Seandq is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 11:55 AM   #12 (permalink)
Junkie
 
hannukah harry's Avatar
 
when i was reading about the various "real" (ie. phone polls by legitamite pollsters, not online) polls, most of them were showing bush and kerry neck and neck but with saying that more registered repubs were called them dems. so maybe it's not as close as we actually think...
__________________
shabbat shalom, mother fucker! - the hebrew hammer
hannukah harry is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 12:11 PM   #13 (permalink)
Crazy
 
damn stoner liberals! Oh wait, that's me!
Tralls is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 12:15 PM   #14 (permalink)
I change
 
ARTelevision's Avatar
 
Location: USA
Not really. What I do think is that polls as they are conceived of and executed today are really very poor ways of tracking the "pulse of the nation."

There has got to be a better way of figuring out what folks are thinking at any one time in our society. Wouldn't you agree?
__________________
create evolution
ARTelevision is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 12:27 PM   #15 (permalink)
Pissing in the cornflakes
 
Ustwo's Avatar
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARTelevision
Not really. What I do think is that polls as they are conceived of and executed today are really very poor ways of tracking the "pulse of the nation."

There has got to be a better way of figuring out what folks are thinking at any one time in our society. Wouldn't you agree?
Not really. I think the only problem with the polls is sample size and distribution. Several 'major' polls this year have turned out to have sampled a disproportionate number of republicans or democrats. Most polls take 1000 people which would be good except that the manner in which they are conducted may well lead to biases.
__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.
Ustwo is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 12:44 PM   #16 (permalink)
I change
 
ARTelevision's Avatar
 
Location: USA
I suppose I'm looking for some technical breakthrough that will really obsolete the current sampling method used. I can conceive of many ways to take the nation's pulse that would be better than these tiny selectively biased samples turn out to be. Can't you?
__________________
create evolution
ARTelevision is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 12:46 PM   #17 (permalink)
Insane
 
I for one don't. For all those motivated "Bush haters" there's just as many Dems who dont hate bush, (dont like him either), but aren't enthusiastic about Kerry and just may not show up at the polls.
__________________
?
theusername is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 01:11 PM   #18 (permalink)
Pissing in the cornflakes
 
Ustwo's Avatar
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARTelevision
I suppose I'm looking for some technical breakthrough that will really obsolete the current sampling method used. I can conceive of many ways to take the nation's pulse that would be better than these tiny selectively biased samples turn out to be. Can't you?
No, not really. Perhaps my brain is dead from it being a monday.
__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.
Ustwo is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 01:25 PM   #19 (permalink)
Banned
 
At this point, the nationwide polls are nothing more than window dressing. Bush doesn't care if he loses California by 2 or 22 points, and Kerry couldn't care less if Texas goes to Bush by 5 or 25 points; therefore, the action is concentrated in a handful of states. I've been watching the state-by-state polling on Rasmussen and RealClearPolitics. Reapportionment actually favors Bush; if all the states voted as they did in 2000, Kerry would get 5 (I think that's right) fewer electoral votes. Thus, he has to hold all those states, and pick up one with 6 or more electoral votes. Conversely, Bush has to hold all his from last time, and virtually any state switching to Kerry causes Bush to lose.

There's been a lot (and will be, I'm sure) said about the usefulness of the electoral college, but I can tell you one big benefit. I'm in Arkansas, where Kerry pulled out his staff and money about 2 weeks ago. There aren't any presidental ads running here for either candidate unless it's on the national broadcasts. It's so nice!
Beatlefan58 is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 01:31 PM   #20 (permalink)
Pissing in the cornflakes
 
Ustwo's Avatar
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beatlefan58
There's been a lot (and will be, I'm sure) said about the usefulness of the electoral college, but I can tell you one big benefit. I'm in Arkansas, where Kerry pulled out his staff and money about 2 weeks ago. There aren't any presidental ads running here for either candidate unless it's on the national broadcasts. It's so nice!
I'm in Illinois and not being in a swing state is a wonderful thing. No adds and very few signs. Some dipshit decided to deface a bunch of the Bush ones that I did see on my way to work, but who cares, at best it will be close for Kerry here. The Illinois republican party must either be run by Democrats or idiots (KEYS?!?!) and there is little doubt the state will go to Kerry.
__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.
Ustwo is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 07:14 PM   #21 (permalink)
MSD
The sky calls to us ...
 
MSD's Avatar
 
Super Moderator
Location: CT
Quote:
Originally Posted by theusername
I for one don't. For all those motivated "Bush haters" there's just as many Dems who dont hate bush, (dont like him either), but aren't enthusiastic about Kerry and just may not show up at the polls.
Some of us just gave up on the Democratic Party and registered as Libertarians.
MSD is offline  
Old 10-18-2004, 08:47 PM   #22 (permalink)
Lennonite Priest
 
pan6467's Avatar
 
Location: Mansfield, Ohio USA
I think polls are used for 2 reasons presently or rather to cause 2 effects. And I think they are very effective in their purposes.

1) To make skew polls in a certain way so that the bias majority will have the general populace questioning why they disagree with the majority and to ease some follower types into wanting to be part of the majority (hence the skewed bias to make the poll and the winner look attractive). Noone likes to feel they are stupid or that they are different and the way polls are they prey on the weak to change their opinions. (This is the whole purpose of polls anyway). Very apparent by the way theymake sure third parties are always polled very very weak and under the +/-.

2) There is also my belief that if the first doesn't affect as many as they hope, that by showing polls that show the candidate or issue a decisive winner that this phase will finish off the opposition. What this phase does is says this, "the majority already feel this way, so your voice and vote won't matter." This is effective by keeping those who may be not so passionate, sick, or fair weather (has to be decent weather to vote) voters away from the polling booths.

I think polls are used to drive the economy to some degree. If people see polls saying people are holding money more closely and plan to buy less, the people get worried and buy less. If polls show the economy to be good, people spend more. This was very effective during Clinton, Reagan and Carter (to some degree). Polls may take the pulse of the populace but they use the pulse to show and hopefully produce the results that the person funding the polls wishes to get.

Anyone on here can run a poll and get the desired effect they want then I suspect get enough people to believe that poll truly is representative of how a majority on here feels. Whether it is truly how they feel or not. This is nothing new, polls and control tricks to get the majority to agree like this are as old as history itself. They don't always work, but they are always effective. Hence, advertising gimmicks, such as 4 out of 5 dentists that chew gum....

I think unless something major happens this election is very much a toss up, I also have a feeling states Bush had planned on winning he'll lose (or at the very least be far closer than expected) and I think Kerry will have the same surprises.

At one time I thought the polls were skewed to make the election look closer than it truly was to keep interest in the election and to keep it from being over in July. However, the past few months things have turned around and the debates and the fact Bush seems to have lost his momentum makes it closer than it was again polls worked to keep the interest going). However those now that worked to keep the interest there now have to get the polls and majority back into Bush's corner (hence the large leads Bush is being seen with).
__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"
pan6467 is offline  
 

Tags
dems, feel, polls, underestimating, year

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -8. The time now is 02:04 AM.

Tilted Forum Project

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2
© 2002-2012 Tilted Forum Project

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360