i heard that cell phone users will vote in a similar proportion to the rest of the country. this does not account for people without a phone, though.
one thing that i find interesting is that many polls on tv are just simply bush vs. kerry. while it may be a good measure of the overall desire of the country, the popular vote doesn't matter in the election. in fact, kerry has such a substantial lead in places like california and new york, these polls could make the race appear closer than it actually is.
but when you get down to each state, the electoral race is actually very close as well. here is a link to the best election gauge that i've found. you may need to sign up for the free la times subscription if the link doesn't show up.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,1851284.flash
(if that doesn't work, go here and click on the map graphic:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...5465.htmlstory )
the interactive map allows you to update swing states (and any others) as you see fit to predict the outcome of the election. updated polling data is included for each state. the last few times i filled this out (assuming battleground state polling to be 100% accurate) the election was decided single state.