First lets bet clear.
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As for "what it means for candidates", I think that's entirely subjective. Ustwo, you believe the MoveOn ads are going "too far" and the SBVT ads raise good questions. Of course you do.
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I haven't seen a Swiftboat add end to end. I said they seem
plausible. You have real vets saying Kerry is FOS, and including clips of Kerry the anti-war activist. I'm not sure if they have mentioned that Kerry's picture is in the Vietnamese war protester museum in Vietnam, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do that next. Kerry is a war hero to the communists in Vietnam, how well do you think THAT will sit with Joe six pack? I don't know exactly what they are saying about Kerry and I don't really care. If it turned out Kerry was as big a stud as he wants us to think he was, I still wouldn't vote for him because I base my choice on what he has done in the Senate and beyond.
To YOU the Moveon adds are accurate, but now put yourself in Joe Sixpacks easy chair. To him Bush can't be that bad or he wouldn’t still be undecided. So he has now seen that Kerry maybe isn't so wonderful, but he knows Bush isn't as bad as the moveon adds say over and over. He hears them say our troops are 'under-equipped' then he remembers M1A1's kicking the crap out of everything. It doesn't fit. Bush seems like a pretty good guy, maybe he shouldn't be president but he is not evil, but these adds are making him out to be Hitler (please excuse my flirting with Goodwin’s). This guy has no strong opinions on anything political and here comes move on shoving strong opinions down his throat.
Bush's rise in the polls started about the time of the Swiftboat adds began. Perhaps it was coincidental, but I think they opened up the idea of ‘Who the hell IS Kerry.’ A theme exploited at the RNC.