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overpopulation - we have cycles of that in nature already. Overpopulation only affects the abundance of the food sources and shelter available. Once the excess dies off then it's back to building up the population once again.
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Mankind doesn't conform too well with nature. We may follow the standard cycle, or we may continue to populate until the food source is irreparably damaged.
But I agree that the most likely source of our demise is a nuclear war.