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Old 05-09-2004, 05:50 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Is the world doomed?

Different from Jesus Pimp's similarly titled thread in that I'm not talking about religion. A few of these directly relate to each other, so... here they are. Oh, and I'm not suggesting that all of these are going to happen next year, but they're (most likely) going to be a factor before long.

1) Isn't there a couple meteors coming through our solar system? A couple of really big ones, one in 2019 and one in 2800? They may not hit us, but if they pass through our solar system, they'll throw off the orbits of the planets.

2) Overpopulation. More and more people arriving here on earth, and less and less space to put them. That's a problem.

3) Depletion of natural resources. What's the fuel that probably pops into your mind first? Oil. Oil takes a long time to form, and we don't have that time. We don't have a backup fuel. Also in the natural resource category is water. With the rise of overpopulation, here comes a water shortage.

4) Crazy dictators with nukes. With so many countries with nukes, it can't be long before they go off.

I'm sure that there are more, but this is all I could think of. Oh well, look on the bright side of life
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Old 05-09-2004, 06:48 PM   #2 (permalink)
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2033 - my estimate - either crazy dictator, or meteor. Natural resource depletion... well, oil goes away, well good bye cars and a lot of the things we use, just because the resources used to propel the technology we use doesn't mean people will continue to thrive, maybe just regress for a while. Our population might decrease drastically, but I think it will take a LARGE event, meteor strike, nuk-u-lar fall-out to wipe mankind out.

I don't see overpopulation being an issue at all. If things get too crowded, well, hate to see it, but people will starve, and eventually more people will die then are born, I think overpopulation is NOT an issue.
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Old 05-09-2004, 09:07 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Cars will not go away even with the depletion of oil. There will always be alternative ways of powering cars, using powercells/solar light, hybrid cars (which would slow the depletion of oil, sales are up 25% from last year). I read about the meteor that will pass by in 2019, and though it is large enough to be disatrous to Earth, it isn't going to hit, and it isn't so large that it will throw off the orbits of the planets. I also don't think that NASA has the equipment to predit the orbits to predict meteor impacts beyond 6 centuries (so roughly 2600), and there are none predicted before then. But would they really tell us? I think that would be a topic for paranoia.

In any case, if the humans are wiped off the Earth, it will be from human measures and nothing natural, I would venture to say nuclear war.
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Old 05-10-2004, 01:29 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Fuel depletion will not send the human race extinct. We survived without it before, we will survive without it again. Also, oil is not the only energy source, for cars or anything else. There are plenty of perfectly good alternative energy sources, but in general, the patents have been bought up by existing oil companies so that they can maintain a monopoly on the energy market.

If we do die in a nuclear war it will still be 'natural' as it will be effected by us and we are part of nature. However, I really don't think this will happen. Crazy dictators like Saddam Hussein or George Bush tend to have sociopathic or psychopathic personalities. This means firstly that they have such an over-inflated sense of self-importance, that they will not do anything that would seriously jeapordise their own existence. Secondly, they tend to be bullies and will only pick on people they know can't fight back. Take, for example the fact that the Alliance just attacked Iraq who they knew had no WMDs, but just went very quiet and pale about Korea who are literally parading their WMDs around. Nobody is going to nuke someone who can nuke them back. As such, any nuclear attacks will not result in the complete destruction of humanity.

As for the meteorites, now they are tough. If we get hit by those, we're fucked, but that's a big if: It really is very rare. As for them pulling us out of alignment, could you state a source for this? I haven't done the maths, but I should think it would take a lot of energy to liberate the Earth from the Sun's orbit.

Now to answer the title of the thread, I don't think 'The World' is doomed. The human race? Yes, species come and species go, but we're still relatively new so the odds are in our favour for the moment. The Earth? Yes its going to get engulfed by the Sun sooner or later, but a lot more like later than sooner.
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Old 05-10-2004, 02:31 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Old 05-10-2004, 09:59 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Just a note: An object passing through the solar system massing enough to pull planets out of orbit makes the infintessimal chance of the earth being hit by a large object look like a sure thing. While I'm not wholey sure on it, I'd also wager being pulled out of orbit would be the least of our worries in that case.

We've screwed up big on population, but these things tend to work themselves out in one way or another.

I agree with the statements that losing natural fuels isnt' going to phase us much. I'd even argue that the depletion of these fuels is benificial to any race reaching forward, as it's sure to spur things on.

Nukes are a sad, sad, fact of life. Although it's true that there are more nukes spread across more countries/groups then ever before, as a species, this is a good thing. Five nukes would have little to no impact on the species as a whole, providing major agricultural centers weren't targeted. The real danger is nuclear war, where salvos of the things are flying back and forth. Luckily, this doesn't appear to be upon us.

We'll die out as surely as the dinosaurs did, as surely as stars have over and over again. It's a long, long way off, though.
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Old 05-10-2004, 12:37 PM   #7 (permalink)
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About the whole orbit thing:

While the meteor(s) probably won't send us into total chaos (completely out of orbit), they will affect us if they're as big as I think they're supposed to be (the first is 1 km in diameter, the second, 2). Any mass produces a gravitational force, and the bigger the mass, the bigger the force. As a minimal, we'd probably get a few degrees of temperature change. At most...? The formula is something like (mass1 * mass2)/(distance^2)

And as far as natural resources, I agree that we'd move beyond oil (we'd have to). But what about when population rises up, and we can't produce enough food? We'd need to find some way to artificially make food in a cost-effective way.

Last edited by Slavakion; 05-10-2004 at 12:40 PM..
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Old 05-10-2004, 01:05 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The only thing I see as a real possibility is all out nuclear war.

Lack of rescources - we'll be forced to adapt - it will change our lifestyle but it won't be the end of the human race.

meteors? I don't see them as likely - maybe out of ignorance but what are the real chances of that happening.

overpopulation - we have cycles of that in nature already. Overpopulation only affects the abundance of the food sources and shelter available. Once the excess dies off then it's back to building up the population once again.
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Old 05-10-2004, 02:42 PM   #9 (permalink)
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From what I've researched, 2012...but personally, I think that the world will never end.
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Old 05-10-2004, 02:58 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
overpopulation - we have cycles of that in nature already. Overpopulation only affects the abundance of the food sources and shelter available. Once the excess dies off then it's back to building up the population once again.
Mankind doesn't conform too well with nature. We may follow the standard cycle, or we may continue to populate until the food source is irreparably damaged.

But I agree that the most likely source of our demise is a nuclear war.
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Old 05-10-2004, 04:39 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Old 05-10-2004, 08:43 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Slavakion, here's a passage I found to argue the orbit theory:

Quote:
"If we think really big and imagine blasting a chunk out of the Earth as big as North America and 100 miles thick so that its final speed, after escape, with respect to the Earth is 25,000 miles an hour, we will have expelled only 1/500 of the total mass of the Earth. The Earth would move in the opposite direction 1/500 as fast or 50 miles an hour. The speed of the Earth in its orbit is about 67,000 miles an hour. We will not change the orbit of the Earth very much--if we apply the impulse to speed up the earth in its orbit we would put the Earth into a new orbit with its most distant point about 70,000 miles further from the Sun than now--and the Earth's distance from the Sun varies now by three million miles over the course of a year! Exactly the same arguments apply to changing the orbit of the Earth through the impact of a large asteroid. The largest asteroid, Ceres, about 600 miles in diameter, is only about as massive as our hypothetical chunk of Earth above. Changing the orbit of a planet is a tall order. An impact big enough to have even a tiny effect on the Earth's orbit or rotation would almost certainly destroy all life on Earth as well."
Also, the formula G*M1*M2/D^2 is the equation for gravitational force between two bodies, and becomes more complex as you factor in additional objects and velocities.
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Old 05-10-2004, 09:58 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Well the fact is the Sun we use is a star. Stars burn up after periods of time. When that happens the Earth freezes up just like the outter planets of our solar system and humans couldnt possibly survive.
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Old 05-11-2004, 12:01 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Well, Pellaz, I stand corrected
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Old 05-11-2004, 12:37 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Menoman
Well the fact is the Sun we use is a star. Stars burn up after periods of time. When that happens the Earth freezes up just like the outter planets of our solar system and humans couldnt possibly survive.
The freezing is the least of our worries.

Before the Sun runs out of fuel it will suddenly expand in size and become a Red Giant. Although slightly cooler it will still be using Nuclear Reactions to burn off those larger elements such as Helium. Oh there is also the small matter of this "Giant" encroaching on the Earth's orbit so ultimately swallowing us.

So we're all doomed even sooner . Apparently we have several billion years left so no need to panic quite yet!
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Old 05-12-2004, 02:14 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Yeah, the sun thing isn't too much to worry about -- yet.
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Old 05-13-2004, 07:42 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Well, I believe that the answer to your question is yes, the Earth is most certainly doomed. However, as to when/how, those are all up in the air. I would imagine that it will eventually be due to nuclear (or the next new, deadler, bigger, WMD) war, but overpopulation probably will certainly be a concern in the future.

Hopefully, if we manage to beat the odds and survive until the sun does engulf the earth, we'll have managed to inhabit other planets by then.
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Old 05-13-2004, 09:00 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Yes, humans are doomed, but not by overpopulation, not by oil, running out and not from the sun going red giant.

We are right now currently growing enough food to support 12 billion people, and with a population of just over six billion, that gives us plenty of growing room. It wouldn't take that much for us to increase our food production either. Space isn't a problem either, we can still build up and down for living space, i.e. buildings.

When natural oil runs out there are still plenty of other fuel possibilities, such as fuel cells, alcohol(made from corn which we have plenty of and is renewable), and for electrical generation there is nuclear, wind, and hydroelectric.

It's going to be roughly another four billion years until the sun goes red giant, statistically by then we will have had 40000 large meteor impacts, not all on the scale of the one that killed the dinosaurs, but large enough that they will cause climate changes,i.e. ice ages. So I think that we'll be wiped out by at least one of these well before the sun kills us, if we haven't left the planet yet.

And if we haven't been able to advance from this stage of technology to something along the lines of Star Trek in FOUR BILLION YEARS, then we don't deserve to live.

If Nuclear War breaks out I bet it will be because some President in the future decides that since we are the most powerful nation(militarily) and we have the best form of government(Yeah, right) then we should unite the world under the rightously free oppresion of the United States. And since the other countries are gonna look down on this idea, we're gonna do our best to wipe each other off the face of the planet with nukes.
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Old 05-13-2004, 09:19 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by llama8
The freezing is the least of our worries.

Before the Sun runs out of fuel it will suddenly expand in size and become a Red Giant. Although slightly cooler it will still be using Nuclear Reactions to burn off those larger elements such as Helium. Oh there is also the small matter of this "Giant" encroaching on the Earth's orbit so ultimately swallowing us.

So we're all doomed even sooner . Apparently we have several billion years left so no need to panic quite yet!
Actually when the sun expands, it won't actually swallow the earth. It will swallow mercury and venus, and earth will orbit just some 200,000 miles from the surface of the sun. It'll be a blasted ball of molten rock, but it won't be swallowed by the sun.
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Old 05-13-2004, 10:01 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by skier
Actually when the sun expands, it won't actually swallow the earth. It will swallow mercury and venus, and earth will orbit just some 200,000 miles from the surface of the sun. It'll be a blasted ball of molten rock, but it won't be swallowed by the sun.

I believe there is a lot of uncertanity over the eventual fate of Earth (except everything on it being dead). From what I can see either the Earth will enter the outer 'atmosphere' of the red giant sun and so slow down and fall into the sun or we will b lucky and the now slightly lighter sun (as some of its mass has been blown off into space) will cause us to orbit at a distance further out and so escape the fate of being swallowed.

If your interested a little bit of google and I found this

http://www.nature.com/nsu/010510/010510-7.html
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Old 06-05-2004, 09:20 AM   #21 (permalink)
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i think the size of the sun is still up for debate, we have never closely observer a sun going nova and will not for some time. it could just engulf venus or it could swallow mars as well.

the devil is in teh details.
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Old 06-06-2004, 09:17 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Old 06-07-2004, 07:37 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Cheers to the end of the human race?

Being a scuba diver, I think it's a shame that the sun will eventually ruin the earth (not to count the wonderful reefs/fish life/everything else). But, I think I'll experience it while I can. Just a note on other guesses about the end of the world the Mayan calendar ends sometime in December 2011 (my guess is some guy got tired of continuing calendar).
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Old 06-08-2004, 05:55 AM   #24 (permalink)
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I think it's doomed as far as humans are concerned.
We're not smart enough to survive indefinitely here.
That's OK with me.
Life itself isn't leaving, just us.
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Old 06-10-2004, 12:28 PM   #25 (permalink)
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il be long-gone before this shit, so i dont care.
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Old 06-11-2004, 03:28 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Old 06-11-2004, 06:55 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by MageB420666
We are right now currently growing enough food to support 12 billion people, and with a population of just over six billion, that gives us plenty of growing room. It wouldn't take that much for us to increase our food production either. Space isn't a problem either, we can still build up and down for living space, i.e. buildings.
We have tons of room to grow of course. Hell maybe the earth could support25 or 50 billion people. Awesome. Imagine trying to stop then. At a rate of a new Mexico City every day. You don't hit the brakes after you pass the stop sign.

The only thing that dooms the Earth certainly is the sun. Anything else can be prevented by our sheer will of wanting to do so. We can turn away meteors, we can have alternative fuels, we can stop rampant growth. We only need the will to do so.
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Old 06-11-2004, 11:51 PM   #28 (permalink)
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First of all i beleive that if we wanted to (humans) as a race could servive indefinintly against anything....let me explain...

Humans are the smartest creatures on "this" planet or solar system that we know exist....humans through out history have servived only because of a major advancment in technowlagey that happends every 10-100 years or so...Ultimatly humans seeing that these things events are going to happen have the instinct to try to servive which in teh ends becomes the basest instinct while about to die......So assuming that the sun was going to explode we would have advanced far enough that by that point in time we could leave earth...and would servive...
Meteors ......I very much doubt there is any thing of enough mass the "destroy" the earth let alone use before we leave earth just because of the pulls of certain places......like the SUN!!! has its own pull which is the biggest in the system currently i beleive there is also the milky way which i beleive i heard is vastly huge and is cuntinualy pulling star's, black holes and the such in to it....this i dont beleive we have to worry about meteors.

All is inconciqenshal anyway.....i mean in any case.....if you cant fight to servive in one form or anouther then your not fit to servive . expecialy if u have the brains to see that this stuff is comming up in the future? AND DONT DO ANYTHING TO LET YOURSELF LIVE?......seems sort of odd to me.
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Old 06-12-2004, 10:23 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by cybersharp
First of all i beleive that if we wanted to (humans) as a race could servive indefinintly against anything....let me explain...

Humans are the smartest creatures on "this" planet or solar system that we know exist....humans through out history have servived only because of a major advancment in technowlagey that happends every 10-100 years or so...Ultimatly humans seeing that these things events are going to happen have the instinct to try to servive which in teh ends becomes the basest instinct while about to die......So assuming that the sun was going to explode we would have advanced far enough that by that point in time we could leave earth...and would servive...
Meteors ......I very much doubt there is any thing of enough mass the "destroy" the earth let alone use before we leave earth just because of the pulls of certain places......like the SUN!!! has its own pull which is the biggest in the system currently i beleive there is also the milky way which i beleive i heard is vastly huge and is cuntinualy pulling star's, black holes and the such in to it....this i dont beleive we have to worry about meteors.

All is inconciqenshal anyway.....i mean in any case.....if you cant fight to servive in one form or anouther then your not fit to servive . expecialy if u have the brains to see that this stuff is comming up in the future? AND DONT DO ANYTHING TO LET YOURSELF LIVE?......seems sort of odd to me.
.....Resists the compelling urge.....

No comment
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Old 06-12-2004, 01:57 PM   #30 (permalink)
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.....Resists the compelling urge.....

No comment

Agreed.
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Old 06-13-2004, 02:34 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Are doom theories are of our own invention, the sun exploding, meterorites drawn in by asteroids, running out of oil. It is all a projection of our own beliefs that it can't last. I am not religious but I think that this world will continue.

Last edited by NotMinus; 06-13-2004 at 06:32 PM..
 
Old 06-13-2004, 06:39 PM   #32 (permalink)
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I seriously wouldn't worry about the nuclear wars. Anybody mad enough to nuke anything at all is way too mad to be able to operate a nuke. Sure, there are some mad people with their hands on buttons at the moment, but not that mad.

If you really want a good doomsday scenario, I'd recommend Yosemite any day of the week. Infinitely more likely than any of the above.
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Old 06-14-2004, 01:00 AM   #33 (permalink)
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What is Yosemite?.....just curious, as I lived in the Nat'l Park for the better part of ten years.
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Old 06-14-2004, 05:19 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Yosemite's a volcanic crater (or, to be more precise, a caldera).
Every so often, the whole damn park explodes, with enough style to make Krakatoa look like a bottle rocket. Kind of screws up the atmosphere for a while, and we're right about due for another explosion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon...olcanoes.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano
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Old 06-14-2004, 07:31 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Wow, very interesting TIO -

I have finally come to the conclusion that

A) Humans will be destroyed somehow, be it asteroid/metorite, Nuclear War, the following Nuclear winter, The ice caps melting, calderas, or one of the other 9 billion plausible catastrophes. The question, however, will be when.

B) According to scientific studies, every activity that any person can possibly partake in causes cancer.
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Old 06-16-2004, 01:05 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by NotMinus
...but I think that this world will continue.
Well, for how long? It has to eventually end. But I think what you meant was that we'll find some way to "tough it out"

Wow, so my thread has lasted this long...
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Old 06-21-2004, 03:51 PM   #37 (permalink)
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http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

This website offers a variety of different possiblities that are actaully thought out by a Dr. from Oxford. Check out rampant nano-technology. Scary stuff.
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Old 06-22-2004, 12:19 PM   #38 (permalink)
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*bookmarks*

Fascinating. It's always a good day when you learn something. Especially something quasi-amusing. Such as VHEMT waanting everyone to kill themselves so the Earth can heal herself.
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Old 06-25-2004, 03:59 PM   #39 (permalink)
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it could be tomorrow.... or today, for that matter!
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Old 06-25-2004, 10:41 PM   #40 (permalink)
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We are simply paranoid idiots. The world isn't going to end any time soon.

If the government really thought that the meteor could kill everyone they would have invested all of their money into stopping it.

Politicians may love the high life, but they don't love it as much as living.
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