Quote:
The one that was to be two typed:
Biology doesn't follow formulae very well. We will not have 22 billion people in 100 years. Populations are self limiting.
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The thing is, if one segment of society manages to build a self-sustaining exponential growth rate in Europe or America, it wouldn't take long to dominate the population.
Let say some subculture of 1% of the population starts having 6 kids (1 / 2 years, starting at age 20), and indoctrinate their children to do the same.
Quick simulation run. Spread that 1% out over the ages of 5 to 30.
The rest of the population shrinks at 0.5% / annum.
Result:
Year 0000: 2500 k breeders 247500 k normals 250000 k total. 1.00% breeders
Year 0005: 3950 k breeders 241374 k normals 245324 k total. 1.61% breeders
Year 0010: 5450 k breeders 235399 k normals 240849 k total. 2.26% breeders
Year 0015: 6950 k breeders 229573 k normals 236523 k total. 2.93% breeders
Year 0020: 8150 k breeders 223891 k normals 232041 k total. 3.51% breeders
Year 0025: 9975 k breeders 218349 k normals 228324 k total. 4.36% breeders
Year 0030: 13125 k breeders 212945 k normals 226070 k total. 5.80% breeders
Year 0035: 17600 k breeders 207674 k normals 225274 k total. 7.81% breeders
Year 0040: 21900 k breeders 202534 k normals 224434 k total. 9.75% breeders
Year 0045: 26200 k breeders 197521 k normals 223721 k total. 11.71% breeders
Year 0050: 32062 k breeders 192632 k normals 224694 k total. 14.26% breeders
Year 0055: 41150 k breeders 187864 k normals 229014 k total. 17.96% breeders
Year 0060: 52937 k breeders 183214 k normals 236152 k total. 22.41% breeders
Year 0065: 65425 k breeders 178679 k normals 244104 k total. 26.80% breeders
Year 0070: 78906 k breeders 174257 k normals 253163 k total. 31.16% breeders
Year 0075: 97700 k breeders 169944 k normals 267644 k total. 36.50% breeders
Year 0080: 125300 k breeders 165737 k normals 291037 k total. 43.05% breeders
Year 0085: 159271 k breeders 161635 k normals 320907 k total. 49.63% breeders
Year 0090: 196937 k breeders 157634 k normals 354572 k total. 55.54% breeders
Year 0095: 240537 k breeders 153733 k normals 394270 k total. 61.00% breeders
Year 0100: 299309 k breeders 149928 k normals 449237 k total. 66.62% breeders
It isn't nearly as bad if I work in "breeder defection", but the point is that any subculture that convinces its members and offspring to have lots of children will reasonably quickly come to dominate the population, and then it's growth dynamic will take over (it takes about 120 years for a takeover if you allow for 25% of the "breeders" children to defect).
I'm worried we will have to use force to control population growth. Hopefully economic force/social force will be enough, but I'm not yet completely convinced.