With all the problems we have had lately, with cities like Falluja all over Iraq, us losing over 600 actual soldiers. Thousands more injured. We have lost 16 soldiers this month alone and we are less than 5 days in.
Now the Coalition has called for the arrest of this Cleric
Al Sadr Very powerful man, we called him an outlaw. I'm not judging whether or not he is. I only care about the backlash. This guy commands many thousands of Iraqi's. This guy is a powderkeg and I see the Coalition tempting him with matches. The Clerics have been very helpful so far in-as-much as they haven't told their people to wage war against the occupiers.
I don't think it is possible to capture him. The result of any attempts will be either the deaths of our forces or the massacre of hundreds to thousands of his supporters to get to him.
If we go through with this either way, it's civil war. I don't think there are any bones about that. I don't think there will be any real stability in Iraq for a very long time. Its going to be hell and if it ever does stabilize it will be under a Theocracy. Most of the other clerics are only barely holding back. They are doing so mostly because of our promised withdrawl date I believe. If we get involved in a war with Al Sadr's followers I don't see how we can realistically pull out in under 3 months. That should bring the rest of them into a free-Iraq coalition against us as well.
Does anyone else really see the future of Iraq any other way than this? Why?