ironchef82

Do you think they should still go to the Sugar Bowl for the National Championship? Remember the controversy 2-3 years ago when Nebraska lost but still went on to face Miami? And the brou-ha-ha that existed for the possibility of a national champion that didn't win their own conference? What do you all think?

Personally, I doubt that if OU lost that *both* LSU and USC would jump over them, assuming that both of those two teams won out as well. Even so, I think OU deserves to play in the Sugar Bowl as they have been the most dominant and consistent team in college football this year. And that's what supposedly the BCS does, is to utilize the results from the full season, not just the last game.

Ideally, in my fantasy college football ideal playoff system (where conference champs and other wild cards qualify), OU would certainly make it in the tourney as a wild card team if they lost the conference championship.

The_Dude

OU will still remain in the top 4 to get a guarenteed bcs bid, and will prolly end up 1-2.

ksu will get the big xii bcs bid and texas will go to the cotton bowl .

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Liquor Dealer

First off - ya'll know what happens when you assume.

OU isn't losing to anyone - they play up to their level of competition and though there may have been a bit of let down with Tech they'll not let down enough for it to get close - Bring on the Purple Pussy Cats then we're ready for whoever is left standing.

PS If the Dude wants to watch Texas get it's ass handed back to them on a platter - again - bring them on too! Don't think any of them probably want anything to do with that rematch.

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Spartak

I think even if OU lose, they are so high up the BCS rankings that they will still be top.

But the way they are playing, and have everyone raving about them, it seems doubtful that they will lose at all this season.

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SysteMatiC

Well this arguement is mute cause there is NO WAY that the big O is gonna lose.

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wilbjammin

You had to remind me of that...

*sigh* Go Ducks.

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bobw

First, that will never happen, second, even if it did, as long as they do not get blown out, they are still #1.

...but in the end, it all comes down to what the computer says.

Has anyone run a BCS simulator with this scenerio ?

RoadRage

The suggestion is not moot because anyone can beat anyone else on any given Saturday.

Human poll will not drop Oklahoma below #3 unless they are on the receiving end of a 77-0 beating themselves. There is no justification for rating Oklahoma below ANY two-loss team without that kind of provocation.

Currently in Colley:
1. Oklahoma - 0.96779
2. Southern Cal - 0.86530
4. LSU - 0.83707

Scenario: Kansas State defeats Oklahoma, Southern California defeats Oregon State, LSU defeats Arkansas, Florida defeats Florida State, LSU defeats Florida. This should be the worst case scenario for Oklahoma.

Result:
1. Oklahoma - 0.92058
2. LSU - 0.89695
3. Southern Cal - 0.88165

At least one computer has Oklahoma #1 in spite of the worst-case scenario. Their lead dropped from 0.10249 to 0.02363, but they are still in the lead.

Colley's range (#1's rate minus #117's rate) is 0.93649, and Oklahoma's drop in the worst-case was 0.07886, or 8.4% of that range. Applying this to the other computer ranksters, we get:

Anderson-Hester: Oklahoma has a (821-759)/(821-179), or 9.66% lead ==> NO DROP
Billingsley: Oklahoma has a (341.420-296.665)/(341.420-137.363), or a 21.9% lead ==> NO DROP
Massey: (3.706-3.305)/(3.706-0.677), or a 13.2% lead ==> NO DROP
NY Times: no data available, I don't feel like being an online-subscriber
Sagarin: (101.85-92.59)/(101.85-47.29), or a 17.0% lead ==> NO DROP
Wolfe: (8.068-6.771)/(8.068-0.244), or a 16.6% lead ==> NO DROP

If the assumptions are valid, Oklahoma maintains 1.00 computer average EVEN IF THEY LOSE to Kansas State.

BCS SOS becomes 0.5593, which would currently put Oklahoma #8

Oklahoma: 1 (loss) + 3.0 (worst possible poll average) + 1.00 (computers) + 0.32 (8th SOS) - 0.5 (QW over #6 Texas) = 4.82
LSU: 1 (loss) + 2.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.60 (40th SOS, just barely reachable) - 0.5 (QWs over #7 Georgia and #10 Florida) = 6.60
Southern Cal: 1 (loss) + 1.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.32 (33rd SOS) - 0 (lack of QWs) = 5.82

Not only does Oklahoma go with a Kansas State loss, they might even be still the BCS#1. Even if Southern Cal manages a computer average of 1.83 (#1 in the one Oklahoma drops, #2 in five others), they're still 0.33 short of passing Oklahoma.

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skysooner

That is what I have heard as well. OU is basically in regardless of what happens in the Big 12 Championship game.

dragon2fire

this was on sportscenter last night

ou can lose and still make the sugur bowl

ironchef82

Thanks RoadRage for that comprehensive analysis.

I had a feeling that they're pretty much Sugar Bowl bound regardless of what happens from here on out.