It's Monday again, BCS time.
 

1. Oklahoma - 1.68 (BCS record low) - 1.0 in poll, 1.00 in computers, 0.28 in strength of schedule, -0.6 in quality wins.

Remaining schedule: Baylor @ OU; OU @ Texas Tech; bye; Big XII Championship versus Nebraska/Kansas State winner (barring Twilight Zone-esque occurences). Probability of running the table (as per Massey, against known opponents): 87.4%

Assessment: Would still be in the National Championship even with a loss to Texas Tech or in the Big XII Championship.

2. Southern California - 6.27 - 2.0 in poll, 2.83 in computers, 0.64 in SOS, -0.2 in quality wins, 1 loss.

Remaining: USC @ Arizona; UCLA @ USC; bye; Oregon State @ USC. Probability of running the table: 84.1%

3. Ohio State - 7.73 - 4.0 in poll, 2.17 in computers, 0.56 in SOS, 1 loss.

Remaining: Purdue @ OSU; OSU @ Michigan; bye; bye. Probability of running the table: 15.7%.

Assessment: Ohio State is painted into a corner. Two tough opponents that they must beat to finish the season, and yet no room left to improve in the computer or the SOS. BCS SOS against known opponents has Ohio State at #6 and Southern Cal at #25, which would close half of the gap (0.72 of the 1.46 point difference), but Ohio State has only 0.17 that they could gain in the computers without Oklahoma losing. Beating Michigan may be a quality win, but only 0.1 or 0.2 worth. In short, Southern California is in the driver's seat and Ohio State needs help.

4. Louisiana State - 13.17 - 3.0 in polls, 6.67 in computers, 2.60 in SOS, -0.1 in quality wins, 1 loss.

Remaining - LSU @ Alabama; LSU @ Mississippi; Arkansas @ LSU; SEC Championship (maybe). Probability of running the table: 38.9%

Assessment: There's a lot of talk about TCU undeserving its position in the polls. LSU should be mentioned right along with them, or maybe INSTEAD OF. Sure they beat Georgia and Auburn and South Carolina, and they made Florida earn a difficult win; everyone they've played so far has been bottom half teams. They finish the season with two top third opponents, and even if they win those and the SEC Championship they still needs lots of help to make it to New Orleans.

5. Texas - 17.05 - 6.5 in polls, 7.83 in computers, 0.72 in SOS, 2 losses.

Remaining - Texas Tech @ UT; bye; UT @ Texas A&M; Big XII Championship (slim but non-zero chance). Probability of running the table: 71.6%

Assessment: They wish they had taken the Arkansas game seriously.

6. Texas Christian - 17.65 - 9.5 in polls, 4.67 in computers, 3.48 in SOS.

Remaining - Cincinnati @ TCU; TCU @ Southern Mississippi; TCU @ Southern Methodist; bye. Probability of running the table: 28.3%.

Assessment: First ever non-BCS team to break into the hallowed ground of the top 6, now they need help to stay there. Tennessee is only 0.67 points back, Michigan is 1.64 points back, and Georgia is 2.62 back. Odds are only one would leapfrog an undefeated TCU, but that one would be enough. A Texas loss, a LSU loss outside the SEC Championship, a Southern California loss, or Ohio State losing to Purdue would put TCU into controlling their own destiny to the jackpot.

Hey RoadRage,
Thanks for posting this assessment. This brings alot of knowledge to some other posts on this board.

I have always felt that SOS is too lightly weighted - and the polls mean too much. This isn't because of any Ohio State bias - but c'mon - if you have all these one loss teams it should be the team that played the best schedule.

LSU is interesting here - because they are #3 in both the coaches and AP polls. They must just be getting killed in the computers.

TCU is ranked top 5 in like 4 different computer models. This is an absolute joke. The computers do not take SOS into account enough.

OSU is so high but they played all their games at home...guess road games do not mean very much anymore.

The BCS is just a bunch of BS. Texas at #5....wtf is that. I guess losing home games to an average team does not hurt you at all.


Art

BTW you forget that OSU can still pick up a poll spot by LSU losing and if OSU wins out against MSU, Purdue and Michigan at Mich....they could leapfrog USC for the 2nd spot in one of the polls.


Art

The Dude isn't gonna' like this but- there ain't no damned way that Texas deserves to be ranked as high as they are now. I realize that there are a lot of losers way up in the polls but this is unreal.

Who else is there? I mean seriously, Texas won a tough game against Okie State (that first half was kinda steady for them and then they just turned on the jets and went). FSU lost to CLEMSON for cryin out loud, Miami lost AT HOME, and VaTech just completely forgot how to play football considering themselves the best ever after they trounced Miami. TCU is fucking up the BCS, they're gonna rob some good team of a good BCS bowl and they're gonna play someone, and get their asses handed to them. That's the ridiculous part of it, TCU being ranked so high, NOT Texas.

well, we wouldnt have deserved it if we played like we played against OSU.

we have a newly found running game that is VERY effective. we screwed the hell out of nebraska and okies (both ranked) with our rb and qb.

if we played ou now and didnt turn the ball over 8 freakin times, we'll have a much closer game.

who knows, maybe USC, LSU and Ohio State will lose and OU #1 and Texas #2. ;).

The_Dude is right. in an OU-Texas rematch, the 'Horns would definitely keep it much closer. the Sooners would still win big (by 20 points or so)... but they wouldn't win BIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGG (as in 65-13)!!!
:D :D :D