Konichiwaneko

wow there was a lot to read here so I stopped about half way.

Here's how I feel, and no I don't think everyone should feel this way.

Bush isn't the problem
Clinton isn't the problem


Social Security itself was the problem.

good ideas are like babies, innocent. But it takes just simple human nature to corrupt things.

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Yakk

Two reasons.

First, commitment. People have been planning their futures based on SS. Removal of this isn't very polite.

Second, security. Social security is a form of security: if everything goes wrong, you won't starve. Older people tend to become less able to deal with complete finantial collapse: they get sick more often, they can't restart in a new career very easily, etc.

In case you haven't noticed, the Bush white house uses 'partisan' to mean 'anything that does not perfectly agree with me, and from another party'.

Oh wow. Something I just noticed.

I thought a good chunk of the US trade deficit was due to the US having a higher GNP than GDP. Historically, this has been true, or so I vaguely remembered.

It isn't true anymore. Not only does the US have a trade deficit, the USA owns less productive capacity in the world than the world owns in the USA.

Do you understand that a 27.00$ DVD is wealth? A protectionist US economy might be able to generate more US jobs, but all your consumer goods would cost 1.5 to 2 times as much. Protectionism is an inefficient form of welfare.

Do I expect the US dollar to fall? Yes. There is a reason why I'm liquidating US assets and buying up non-US assets.

A falling US dollar is part of the payment the US will be making on it's irresponsable fiscal policy. It is a price: when USD are worth less, your money is worth less. It has side effects which are benefitial.

Lastly, your term 'slave wages'... Are you attacking the wages based off 'unfair' competition, or based off harm to the wage earners?

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

jorgelito

Wow, Yakk, you're getting into foreign currencies and speculation tyoe stuff now. My head hurts...

What I don't understand (slightly off topic) is why are you selling your US assets? I've always assumed that while possible, it is rather unlikely that the US$ will crash. I know it's declining right now, but would it really crash?

My reasoning is because of the importance of the US in terms of world economy, it seems unconceivable the US$ would crash. Or that major economies would let it.

Secondly, it is my understanding that China and Japan hold a significant amount of US$ in their reserves. I don't think they would "let" the dollar fall too hard. In fact, don't they end up "propping" up our dollar by buying more $$ for exactly that reason (to prevent the US$ from falling). Aren't we too integrated for something like this too happen? I think this is one of the inherent dangers and problems when we run too much deficit or borrow from other countries too much. We leave ourselves too vulnerable.

So hey, while we're on the subject, do you think the Chinese should float the Yuan?

Ok, so I agree, cutting off SS abruptly would be a "rude awakening" for sure. But what about a phase out?

(back to the drawing board...)

pan6467

OK after research I must admit to being wrong on how SS works.

I was partially corect, this is just a quick overview of how it works directly from www.ssa.gov. Basically you can pay a max every year of 87,000. What you work is put into quarters every quarter right now is like 975. They then add up your quarters and determine what you get from there.

Company still matches dollar for dollar and the %age of the pay is 7+. 15 % if self employed and enrolled. This page breaks it all down;
http://ssa-custhelp.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/...cGFnZT0x&p_li=

One quick note: when you look at benefits paid you must remember out of that comes Medicare premiums. So like the 930 this year came to like 868/month.

PS KMA.... it was my alter ego.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

Yakk

D'oh - sorry, I got my threads crossed.

12% loss in the last year. And no reason to believe it is slowing. I suspect the recent slight recovery is due to currency speculators who sold the dollar short -- when it matures, they are forced to buy up USD, which lifts the currency.

That kind of speculation won't last over the long term.

If the US dollar and investments (to those outside) loses half of it's value over the next 10 years, would that be a crash? It sure would make the USA a poor investment.

The only way they can keep the US$ up is by increasing their exposure to the US$. At some point, they have to think about how much future exposure they will have to realize in order to protect their past exposure.

It is sort of like doubling at a poker table. You double to 'prevent the loss' you just had, but eventually the stakes get too large.

When the USA as a nation
A> Imports more goods than it exports
B> Ownes less productive capacity outside of itself than others own of it
C> Has a 0% savings rate, effectively
D> Is running massive deficits, with no end in sight
E> Has slower productivity gains than spending gains
F> Justifies its practices by thinking "they wouldn't dare call our bluff, we are too important!"

well, that's a recipie for trouble.

Remember the S&L scandals of the 80s? Japanese stagflation? Economic collapse of the USSR? Californian Electricity Crisis?

Technically, the US government is required to engage in trade sanctions against nations that engage in currency price fixing. I know this isn't an answer, but it is sort of funny. ;-) (some law on some books somewhere, I don't have the reference)

The floating of the Yuan would be one of the nails in the coffin of the US$. Do you think the US$ should drop rapidly?

It would suck for the business I work for! =)

I think SS serves a useful purpose. It makes people non-paranoid about 'how will I live in my old age?'

You want a relatively slow rate of population growth -- possibly ZPG -- in the long term. So, the question is, how much do you want from Immigration and how much from reproduction?

Economically, Immigrants are pretty damn useful, and are quite often more productive than the lackluster kids the local breeders produce!

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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.