Mephisto2

In many countries opinion polls are banned, or restricted, in the last few remaining days of an election. From what I can see that's not the case in the US.

Should they be banned? I believe the reasoning is that they can unfairly influence voters in the last minute scrambling before the booths open.

Personally, I would be in favour of restricting them in the last week of the campaign.

What do you think?



Mr Mephisto

daswig

I'll pass. There would need to be a REALLY good reason to restrict the freedom of the press, and that's what it would be.

KMA-628

I don't know if I care about opinion polls, but I don't really like exit polling.

Not that I think it should be outlawed, but I think it has an effect on the west coast and Hawaii.

If you see that your state (California excluded, most likely) will not have an effect (i.e. not enough electoral votes to change things either way) then why brave the long lines?


Then again, if it wasn't for Russert and his visuals, it just wouldn't be election night.


/secretly can't wait for Russert and his dry erase marker

Mephisto2

There's already plenty of restrictions on the freedom of the press. Quite often because it is considered to be beneficial for particular reasons.

Opinion polls are unreliable by around 3% per 1000 samples according to a statician I heard discussing this on the radio yesterday. I believe the idea is that because of this unreliability, fundamentally inaccurate opinion polls can have an effect on the election. This is considered a bad thing, as people are basing their voting on erroneous data rather than on campaign issues.

At least I think that's the idea/reasoning behind it.


Mr Mephisto

daswig

Other than the restriction of willfully publishing fraudulent materials with malice, which is a tort, what legal restrictions exactly are on the press?

Mephisto2

Do I have to honestly answer this? I thought you were a lawyer?

It is illegal to publish hard-core pornography involving bestialiaty, minors and some other types of "obscene" material.
It is illegal to publish criminal records.
It is illegal to publish "state secrets".

Don't fool youself that there is 100% freedom of the press in the US. It probably has the most free press in the world, but to say that there are no restrictions on publishing material is simply wrong.

And before you start, I do not want to get into a trivial bickering match with you over this. If you believe there are no restrictions, then fine. You're wrong.

I value your opinion as to opinion polls, which is the subject of this thread. Let's keep it on topic.


Mr Mephisto

aliali

Whether or not there are other restrictions on what the press can do, why should we make up more of them?

I can't see the benefit of depriving the public of information relating to their election.

A ban doesn't show much trust in the people, who are entrusted with the election anyway.

quicksteal

Polling that is performed is "reliable" generally within 3-4 percentage points. This means that a statistician is 95% certain that the results are accurate within the given range. If I was to say that in a poll taken this weekend, 85% of Halloween party-goers like wearing costumes, and this poll has a 4 % margin of error, then it is 95% likely that between 81-89% of Halloween party-goers like wearing costumes. Of course, it is most likely to be 85%, and the probabilities drop off from there.

Statisticians do a lot of "fuzzy math" work to try to make the polls as accurate as possible. For example, they try to poll a certain number of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. This way, they won't poll too many members of one party, who are likely to choose their candidate, and therefore sway the poll. There was an argument that in Ohio, the Gallup organization was polling too high a percentage of Republicans (35%) because they were using a number from the 2000 election, and the Democrats have reported that they have registered more voters than the Republicans in Ohio since then.

To me, it's faily foolish to judge the opinions of everyone based on one poll. They seem to do better when averaged together, and when they are used to watch trends (post-convention or post-debate bounces). This is why I like www.realclearpolitics.com, since they do a good job of averaging polls and showing such trends. Be warned--their commentary is Republican-leaning, so they might sway some of you folks!

To answer your thread topic, I agree to an extent that people should stop polling before the election, and since polls always open on Tuesdays in America, I think it would be a good idea to at least discourage pollsters from releasing their results the week of the election. I feel as though it creates more confusion, especially when the race is this close. Right now, news organizations should be trying to convey the two platforms of the party, not bickering over who's ahead in what state, and the only way to do that is to take away their bait.

Mephisto2

Well, that's a fair comment. But the reasons remain the same. A lot of political parties don't like polls so close to the election. I guess it's because they have to react them so much.


Mr Mephisto