Bush announces capture of Bin Laden!
 

Ok not really, and I'm sorry if I disappointed some of you but I think it was needed to evoke the proper reaction.

There has been the conspiracy theory that we already have Bin Laden and Bush is waiting until October to launch his coup de gras on Kerry. Even Kerry's wife has said this.

Just before the election Bin Laden or his body will appear to give Bush the edge.

I would guess that some of you reading the thread title thought that’s just what happened.

Now here is my question for everyone. If you were GWB (empathy people empathy) and you just got word that Bin Laden was captured and DNA verification confirms it, would you announce it today before the first 'big' debate?

Would you announce it before the election?

If you announce it now, millions will assume its a set up.

If you wait you just might lose the election.

There is no doubt that the news would be released before the election. Most folks who would assume it was an "October surprise" are probably not going to vote for Bush anyway.

I would not announce it until there was no longer a reason to keep it a secret. Certainly there may be very real operative reasons why you would not announce it immediately:

If he's dead he will be looked at as a martyr and encourage more fighting before we have adjusted our forces for the expected increase.

If he's captured he may provide information (or information may be found with him) that will help roll up other members of Al Qaida.

I'm sure there are many other reasons announcing his capture would be less than desirable but any benefit or cost in terms of the campaign is irrelevant.

I would rather lose the election with the knowledge that I did not use his capture or death as a political tool. Certainly history would look kindly on keeping that information secret for operational reasons at the cost of a second term.

Oddly enough, Ustwo, I've wondered the exact same thing. The worst thing for Bush, right now, would be the legitamate capture of OBL. To announce his cature, this close to the election, would justifiably smell like last weeks tuna cassarole. The capture of Osama, at this point in the game, is a no win situation for the Bush camp.

Oh, and by the way, there are a few people around here that I probably would've taken that statement (Bush announces capture of Bin Laden) at face value from. And, no offense Ustwo, you ain't one of 'em. On the other hand, neither is superbelt, so you'd be in good company there. ;)