Bush's July Surprise

[cthulu23]

The following is from the Washington Post on 7/9/2004

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2004Jul9.html

"This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a 'sanctuary' for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border."

So far, so good. But:

"This public pressure would be appropriate, even laudable, had it not been accompanied by an unseemly private insistence that the Pakistanis deliver these high-value targets (HVTs) before Americans go to the polls in November. The Bush administration denies it has geared the war on terrorism to the electoral calendar. 'Our attitude and actions have been the same since September 11 in terms of getting high-value targets off the street, and that doesn't change because of an election,' says National Security Council spokesman Sean McCormack.

"But The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs by the election. According to one source in Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), 'The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the [upcoming] U.S. elections.' Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations--according to a recently departed intelligence official, 'no timetable[s]' were discussed in 2002 or 2003--but the November election is apparently bringing a new deadline pressure to the hunt. Another official, this one from the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which is responsible for internal security, explains, 'The Musharraf government has a history of rescuing the Bush administration. They now want Musharraf to bail them out when they are facing hard times in the coming elections' . . .

"A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed TNR that the Pakistanis 'have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must.' What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: 'The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington.' Says McCormack: 'I'm aware of no such comment.' But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that 'it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July'--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston."

Can you imagine? "BREAKING NEWS" from Pakistan just as Kerry is making his way to the podium? Overshadowed by Osama? Would anyone care that the timing seemed crassly political?

Seems like a long shot, but who knows?

I thought that it sounded like a long shot, too. Who can take unnamed sources very seriously? Than I read this:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapc...ure/index.html

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistani security forces have captured a high-level al Qaeda operative who was on the FBI's most-wanted terrorist list in connection with the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Africa, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said Thursday.

Hayat said Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, who the FBI lists on its Web site as being born in Zanzibar, Tanzania, was captured in a raid in central Pakistan "a few days back."

What a coincidence! What are the odds that they would released the news the same day that Kerry is going to accept the nomination? What wacky timing.

I won't make too much out of this. No crime has been committed, but I do think that this raises more questions about the character of the Bush election machine. Apparently, not much is sacred.

[roachboy]

presto macho as gil scott-heron once said:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3938133.stm

just in case you thought the article was mucking about on the timing matter.

[pan6467]

Wonder what kind of aid against India we had to bribe Pakistan with for this coincidence.

[seretogis]

I really doubt that even OBL's capture would derail the Democrat love-fest that is the media's coverage of the DNC. I can hear the commercials now -- "Presidential candidate John Kerry's garderner's cousin's ex-wife speaks of his character. OsamaBinLadencaptureddetailsateleven."

[hannukah harry]

hmm... captured on sunday and the press release is thursday... when kerry accepts nomination... seems like more than a coincedence to me... a bit of a dirty tactic maybe?

[Kadath]

Originally posted by seretogis
I really doubt that even OBL's capture would derail the Democrat love-fest that is the media's coverage of the DNC. I can hear the commercials now -- "Presidential candidate John Kerry's garderner's cousin's ex-wife speaks of his character. OsamaBinLadencaptureddetailsateleven."

Sweetie, I love you to death, but you do know none of the major networks even covered the Democrat's convention?

[wonderwench]

Originally posted by hannukah harry
hmm... captured on sunday and the press release is thursday... when kerry accepts nomination... seems like more than a coincedence to me... a bit of a dirty tactic maybe?

Bush getting out of bed and taking a shower would be construed as a dirty tactic by some of the members here. It doesn't matter what he does or when it happens, there is always some conspiracy theory to make of it.

[cthulu23]

I don't go for conspiracy theories and I thought nothing of the story when I read it earlier this month. My feelings changed when the freakin' Pakistanis delivered the HVT that the Administration was allegedly clamoring for (and in the proper time frame, too). Does this prove anything? No, but it does seem awful suspicious, don't you think?

[filtherton]

Originally posted by wonderwench
Bush getting out of bed and taking a shower would be construed as a dirty tactic by some of the members here. It doesn't matter what he does or when it happens, there is always some conspiracy theory to make of it.

The opposite is also true. Bush being caught red-handed in a three way with saddam and obl would somehow be rationalized in the minds of some of the members here.

Back to the topic:The possibility of underhandedness is there and you'd be a fool to pretend that the bush administration isn't capable of such a thing.

[ARTelevision]

I expect that part of the task of managing a country in times of peace and especially in times of war war involves management of the news as possible. I also expect that the top officer in charge of leadership during wartime - in our case, the Commander in Chief - would see it as a strategic imperative to be reelected.

That's how I look at things. As you know, I trust the US Government - no matter what party is in power, because it has earned that trust in countless many more ways than it has betrayed it. You may also know that, as a mere citizen who has a job description that does not include security clearances or running the country, I do not expect that my government tell me things. In fact, I expect it not to. I also expect it to attempt to manage the news in what it considers the best interests of the nation.

I understand this rubs many of you the wrong way. Many citizens believe the government should be vulnerably transparent and that citizens have the right to know its most important information. Many people also believe that it is acceptable to live in a world where every piece of information is managed by some individual or organization (as it is now) - except the government.

Personally, I prefer to have the government compete at least equally in managing the news.

[hannukah harry]

Originally posted by wonderwench
Bush getting out of bed and taking a shower would be construed as a dirty tactic by some of the members here. It doesn't matter what he does or when it happens, there is always some conspiracy theory to make of it.

unfortunatly, i'm not a conspircy theory nut. when bush does something good, i'll happily give credit to him. but most of these threads are about what he does that's (in my opinion) negitive. this seems to be a little too convienient to just be coincendental, especially after the memo's mentioned above. is it illegal? nope. is it wrong? i'm not sure... i think if all of this is true then it's in an ethical and moral gray area... the fact that it could be used to manipulate voters makes me think it's not-so-kosher. but i wouldn't quite say it's "wrong" yet either.

[cthulu23]

We aren't talking about the government protecting secret material here...this is a naked attempt to manipulate public sentiment for a purely political gain....there is no "it's for your own good" spin here. This is naked, willful distortion to win an election. Couldn't they have applied pressure to capture a HVT as quickly as possible? It's the greedy demand that it happen during the Dem convention that makes it most outrageous. And they fucking did it even though there were rumblings of it in the media. Amazing.

Please don't make the mistake of thinking that this was for your or my protection. This is the kind of selfish, reckless politics that produced Watergate.

[ARTelevision]

Yes, our electoral process is constructed to provide for the removal of a Commander in Chief even during the prosecution of a war.

This is from my previous post. Sorry to have to repeat it:

"I also expect that the top officer in charge of leadership during wartime - in our case, the Commander in Chief - would see it as a strategic imperative to be reelected."

[cthulu23]

Are there any limits to this "strategic imperative?" Or we to accept the murder of political enemies as standard operating procedure? Forgive me if I'm misinterpreting you.

[kutulu]

I'm sorry but I expect more from my leaders than this.

[ARTelevision]

I don't answer every question that could be related in some remote way to a thread topic. I give my perspective on the topic from what I consider to be a realistic perspective.

Legal and constitutional limits apply to what the government does.

My first post made it clear - I understand others have different expectations of their leaders.

In brief, in a world of managed information I expect my government to be at least equal to the task of managing information as its opponents.

[cthulu23]

I know that you don't debate Art, and I understand your reasons for doing so. I still have to say that this situation is more then simple spin. Information management is one thing, complete deception another. Lying may not be illegal, but it definitely erodes trust.

[filtherton]

Originally posted by ARTelevision
I don't answer every question that could be related in some remote way to a thread topic. I give my perspective on the topic from what I consider to be a realistic perspective.

I think the issue here is that your perspective, when applied generally, leaves the door open for a great deal of completely unethical behavior. I think people take issue with the idea that a sitting president should be openly allowed to manipulate the media, in effect lie to the american people for political gain. The idea that the ends justify the means is generally not acceptable in a country who claims to be the paragon of equality and freedom.

[ARTelevision]

Perhaps it does in some threoretical way, if not for the actual fact that we're lucky to be living in a nation with sufficient Constitutional checks and balances - including the world's most powerful and freest press - to make dire consequences nearly impossible. I have a firm grasp on what is real and what is not. I prefer to keep my discussions pinioned to the real world.

I understand there are other ways of looking at this.

[cthulu23]

Art,

I wish I could share your optimism about the likelihood of "dire consequences." To me, an unjust war and the eroding of our civil liberties already qualifies as a dire situation. Although the checks and balances are always present, they do not usually protect against short term abuses. Much damage can be wrought before a case makes it's way to the Supreme Court, for instance.

But I don't mean to draw you into a debate that you have no interest in joining. After all, this is only my opinion.

[ARTelevision]

Understood, cthulu. I'm interested in representing opposing positions in as comprehensible a way as possible. This is simply in order to indicate that they exist and they are held by reasonable individuals with different underlying assumptions. Typically, underlying assumptions are not amenable to debate.

[roachboy]

art: two questions for the moment:
i do not understand is how exactly the manipulation of information falls within the constitutional system, specifically within the system of institutional "checks and balances" because it is a political and not an institutional matter.

i assume that the bush administration trying to force pakistan to arrest some al qeada person to upstage the democratic convention is not illegal---would your position be different if it were?

but assuming that it is not illegal: do i understand this correctly that if there is no case law specifically addressing the limits of this sort of action, then any such action is ok? and that it would only stop being ok if there was specific legal limits/prohibitions imposed by a court? and that otherwise any position on the matter is a question of prior assumptions that you would remove from the space of argument....


so i lied. there are three questions. ok four--but two of them are almost the same.

[ARTelevision]

Generally, roachboy, these questions were covered in my initial posts - positing strategic necessities as a reason misinforming the public is acceptable to me.

You may disagree that the reelection of a Commander in Chief during time of war may be considered a strategic imperative.

[Journeyman]

Art, I see a bit of a contradiction when you say that you expect the Commander in Chief to consider re-election as a strategic advantage when executing a war, while also managing the news in the "best interests of the nation." The problem lies in the divide between the best interests of the nation and the best interests of the president.

Anyway, for an article to come out at the beginning of the month saying that the Pakistani's are being pressured to produce something preferably by the end of the month but most definitely before election day, and then have something produced A) Nearing the end the of month and B) Reported (what... the... fuck, don't wait, why wait?) on the day that Kerry makes his speech at the DNC... I know you guys like to be cautious about being confident in what you say about this, but yeah, it's a political move. I don't see anything stopping the administration from pressuring in June, I only see them gaining brownie points with the America people in July.

To use the war on terror as a re-election campaign division is wrong.

[ARTelevision]

Right. These would be the differences of opinion that illuminate this matter.
Thanks.

[cthulu23]

Art,

Does that apply to any leader during any war? Isn't willful deception harmful to the democratic process?

[ARTelevision]

cthulu, yes. Large organizations are not in the habit of telling all of their members the truth about everything. This is how large organizations function in the real world.

As for your second question, again, I'm afraid we are into a philosophical discussion here regarding ideals and the way the real world works. I try very hard not to make statements that refer to ideal conditions, as they do not exist.

[Bookman]

Originally posted by ARTelevision
I expect that part of the task of managing a country in times of peace and especially in times of war war involves management of the news as possible. I also expect that the top officer in charge of leadership during wartime - in our case, the Commander in Chief - would see it as a strategic imperative to be reelected.

That's how I look at things. As you know, I trust the US Government - no matter what party is in power, because it has earned that trust in countless many more ways than it has betrayed it. You may also know that, as a mere citizen who has a job description that does not include security clearances or running the country, I do not expect that my government tell me things. In fact, I expect it not to. I also expect it to attempt to manage the news in what it considers the best interests of the nation.

I understand this rubs many of you the wrong way. Many citizens believe the government should be vulnerably transparent and that citizens have the right to know its most important information. Many people also believe that it is acceptable to live in a world where every piece of information is managed by some individual or organization (as it is now) - except the government.

Personally, I prefer to have the government compete at least equally in managing the news.

With all the money/political contributions etc etc going on you are not concerned with accountability? We have arived at a time where all information should be fully disclosed if it is the basis for decisions like GOING TO WAR. Have you ever felt the hands of injustice? Is your life that perfect? In the case of the current administration there is TOO much business being conducted (most imporatantly business tied to politicians) so I cannot be firm in any belief that these people are working for US.

[Rekna]

what bothers me about this is I do not want them playing politics with national security

[onetime2]

Imagine that. The President wants favorable news about the war on terror for his campaign; just as Kerry wants bad news (about it) for his. Those bastards. What, do they think this is a competition or something? Ummm, wait a second, it is. This is simply a case of politics as usual. Nothing wrong with it. Kerry would do the same in Bush's place.

[smooth]

Originally posted by ARTelevision
cthulu, yes. Large organizations are not in the habit of telling all of their members the truth about everything. This is how large organizations function in the real world.

As for your second question, again, I'm afraid we are into a philosophical discussion here regarding ideals and the way the real world works. I try very hard not to make statements that refer to ideal conditions, as they do not exist.

Art, have you read Michel's Iron Law of Oligarchy? You might find his analysis of organizations interesting. It may also clarify why some of us are so concerned with transparency--since that seems to be an antidote to power congealing at the top of a bureaucracy.

Michel's Oligarchy

In democratic systems, often the power moves upwards. Michels (1949) had the most influential analysis of this process -- his work with the Social Democratic Party in pre- WWI Germany showed that oligarchic tendencies shift power from the majority and place it with an elite minority (Scott p. 332). They are an unintended consequence of organization (Scott p. 332). The new leaders become enamored of the social trappings of their position and become more concerned with organizational survival than the stated goals of the organization. The majority end up "rubber-stamping" executive decisions. Thus the leadership ends up not serving the primary interests of their organizational members.

-- http://faculty.babson.edu/krollag/or...oligarchy.html

This link is very detailed, but also long: http://www.geocities.com/integral_tr...n/michels.html

[ARTelevision]

Yes, this is human nature and the socio-political nature of human groups. It has always been so. That's why we have the most elaborate system of Constitutional checks and balances and the world's freest press. In my opinion, the electoral process is the citizen's essential safeguard against such abuses. We are well-protected against governmental misdeeds. At some point, pursuing these safeguards ad infinitum simply renders the government powerless and unable to govern.

[cthulu23]

Originally posted by onetime2
Imagine that. The President wants favorable news about the war on terror for his campaign; just as Kerry wants bad news (about it) for his. Those bastards. What, do they think this is a competition or something? Ummm, wait a second, it is. This is simply a case of politics as usual. Nothing wrong with it. Kerry would do the same in Bush's place.

And I would be equally outraged if Kerry stooped to using such dirty, Nixon-esque tactics. This is only "politics as usual" in the worst sense of the phrase.

I'm not surprised that Bush apologists spin this as a pure conspiracy theory. I am surprised that reasonable people are seemingly willing to forgive egregious breaches of the public trust simply because worse has been done before. How low does the bar have to be set before we begin to demand more from our leaders? Is this nation to be crucified on a cross of "political realism" while the our leaders are slowly transformed into scoundrels and con men?

[DelayedReaction]

Occam's Razor suggests that, in the event of a confounding situation, we make as few assumptions as possible. In this case, I think the simplest possible answer is that the Bush administration recieved word of the terrorist's capture on Sunday, and the political advisors suggesting waiting until Thursday for the best impact. I don't see this as conspiracy, dirty politics, or even an underhanded attack. Bush just released the information when I hoped it would do the most damage to the opposing party.

I think people are taking this "by November" command a bit too seriously. Both Bush and the military know that you can't force operations of this level to a simple timetable; putting the pressure on Pakistan is merely indicative of how desperate the administration is for results.

I'm noticing that some of us in this thread are getting a little disrespectful towards each other. I'd like to keep at least one Bush/Kerry thread civil. Can we try and make it this one?

[cthulu23]

DelayedReaction,

I don't think that we've sunk too far into the mire in this thread, but that's just my opinion. Hell, you might be talking about me.

Occam's Razor states that the simplest solution is usually the correct one. Which scenario is the simpler one: that the rumors in the media were true, as evidenced by the Pakistani's production of an HVT at exactly the right moment, or that this is all a giant coincidence, some sort of cosmic joke on the Bush administration?

[ObieX]

*nod* i hear all this stuff about "human nature" and "how the real world works" attempting to justify wrongful actions all the time. I'm sure you all do too. But if we can't overcome this "evil" human nature and work toward the "ideal" then what is the point of claiming to be civilized, or even to live?

As for the original topic. It's the president's job to serve US, the people. Not himself. He is a public SERVANT, not a public MASTER.

[cthulu23]

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the conditions that surround him... The unreasonable man adapts surrounding conditions to himself... All progress depends on the unreasonable man."

-George Bernard Shaw

[ARTelevision]

Yes, it's fine to be motivated by idealism. I'm not. I respect those who are. The world isn't run by a single person. Progress occurs as a result of mutual effort and collaboration by individuals with various admixtures of idealism and realism - or as might be rhetorically proposed as a response to the above quote - by both "reasonable" and "unreasonable" people.

[onetime2]

Originally posted by cthulu23
And I would be equally outraged if Kerry stooped to using such dirty, Nixon-esque tactics. This is only "politics as usual" in the worst sense of the phrase.

I'm not surprised that Bush apologists spin this as a pure conspiracy theory. I am surprised that reasonable people are seemingly willing to forgive egregious breaches of the public trust simply because worse has been done before. How low does the bar have to be set before we begin to demand more from our leaders? Is this nation to be crucified on a cross of "political realism" while the our leaders are slowly transformed into scoundrels and con men?

What do you think Kerry has done throughout his political career? This type of stuff is SOP in politics. There's no way around it and it is completely irrelevant in terms of impact. All politicians want to get elected. To do so they play up good things (and try to bring about as many good things as possible, especially around elections) and play down bad things. That's the system. Those who make a big deal of this either:

1. Don't understand that this is the reality of all politicians.

or

2. Understand this reality and are trying to make an issue of it to hinder their opponent.

edit: I guess the third is that they expect to somehow remove this reality from the process but IMO that is unrealistic at best and impossible at worst.

[DelayedReaction]

cthulhu23,

We haven't sunk too far, but I'd still like to maintain a higher standard of decency. One of the things I like most about TFP is how much emphasis we place on respect. That we can have a conversation such as this is indicative that it's working.

It's easier to believe (for me) that Pakistan captured the HVT when they could, and the Bush administration chose the most politically effective time to release the news.