Who's Going to Win the Canadian Prime Minister Election
 

Who do you feel will win the election, myself I'm still undecided, I have voted Liberal in the past but don't consider myself to be a Paul Martin Liberal, so I'm really not sure.

discuss.

Here's a link to the CBC story:
http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/05/23...elxncall040523

I think that Paul Martin will win atleast a minority government which will be unfortunate considering that Canadians (especially Ontarians) would rather reward corruption than to instill change.

However, since the new Liberal premier unveiled his budget this week which went against everything he promised in his election platform, (LIAR) this may cost the federal Liberals. And Quebec is fed up with the Liberals which will play out well for the Bloc. (I guess pumping 40 billion dollars into Quebec over the last 40 years wasn't such a great investment afterall)

The only way the Liberals will lose is if the mindset of eastern Canada changes regarding "the opposition" to "the governing party" isn't worthy of running the country. Until then, the corruption will continue, the rich will get richer, scandal upon scandal will be ongoing, taxes will rise, the heathcare system will continue to fall apart, the lies will continue and on and on and on.

I was no fan of Mulroney, but the absolute corruption of the last 10 years by the Liberal's makes the corruption of the Conservatives look amateurish by comparison.

Will Canadians (eastern Canada)remain bleeting, mindless sheep or will they finally grow some balls and take a stand and put someone in power whose purported best interests is for all Canadians, or just a select few? We will see June 28th.

So wait... Canada doesn't have set election times? Like every 4 years as we have here in the States?

I'm confused.

And here I thought I was doing well with my Canadian knowledge :(

The current prime minister has to call an election. When he or she decides when the best time is, they formally ask the governer general (representative of the crown) for "permission".

It's all pomp...

So he/she can do this whenever he/she (who am I kidding, he..) wants? What if he doesn't want to give it up? What if he's like a 4 year old and his toy?

So a week after this guy is elected, he can say "Alright that election was kinda fun, lets have another!"

And the crown? England? I thought yall were done with those fools. No offense to our English friends on the board, I just wanted to say "those fools."

Sounds like pomp for sure. If you take out the "m" and replace it with an "o".

Well he or she has to call it after four years, but they can call it early if they feel the position is good

We never really split completely. We never had a problem with England and the crown, and when we split, it was very amicable ;)
The Governer General is still technically the head of the Military, and calls Parliament into session, and has the speech from the crown. The Commonwealth is rife with such traditions.. Personally I'm a big fan of the monarchy, and monarchisms in general.. I kinda like the pomp (m, not o for me ;) )

I thought Martin was just elected recently? Within the past year anyway?

Ack, so much to learn..

He wasn't elected by the general populous, but rather by delegates at a Liberal convention because former Prime Minister Chretien stepped down before his term ended. So that makes him an unelected Prime Minister riding out the term of the former PM.

Ahhh I see... I sadly don't know much at all about Canadian politics.

Thats okay.. the Electoral college process makes my eyes bleed ;)

We have had a female Prime Minister...well for a couple of months...but we had one!

let's not bring up Kim Campbell, that was a dark time

Hmmm...the E.C. is introductory level compared to trying to understand the Primaries!

Between Conventions and Caucuses, Delegates, Super-Delegates, Pledged or unpledged, etc, etc, it is a real mess.

And not to forget, she was an " unelected" prime minister much like Paul Martin is currently.

I'm sure the liberals will win, but I'm voting conservative.

Think it'll be a tightly contested race? I'm overseas and wondering if I should risk awakening the slumbering tax-collectors to my existence by registering for an absentee ballot...

Go Green.
 

Screw the so called big parties. I'm voting Green.... well... I would if I could. My Canadian Citizenship is not through yet (still a landed immigrant) ;)

Check out thier site.

I predict that Martin will win a minority government and that the NDP will hold the balance of power.

We are in for bad days if the Conservatives under Harper win... while many in Canada would welcome their brand of fiscal conservatism the vast majority would not stand for their social conservatism...

Here is an interesting scenario... The Liberals lose many seats across the board giving the Bloc a minority with either an NDP or Liberal backing them... No likely but certainly possible.

I'm very undecided about this election, and even about who I will vote for. On one hand, the Liberals are so very very corrupt, although they HAVE paid down the debt a great deal....

on the other hand, the Conservatives' platform resembles someone running for students council... they promise tax breaks, AND increased funding?? I was under the impression those things were on the opposite ends of a scale.

I might end up voting Independant, although I dont even think there is one running in my riding :(...

I have so very much to learn about my candidates and their parties in the coming month

All I want is some accountability, decent representation and less wasted dollars (my taxes). Sadly, we haven't had this for many years.

It's a disturbing time, with no candidate really catching anyone's eye, they are just all so bad, it could be the year to not vote at all, of course then I have no right to complain, oh the quagmire

What you've just described (in terms of a Martin minority with the NDP) is what I am fervently hoping will happen. With Liberal support in the polls falling, and Conservative support rising, I'm beginning to get a little worried about the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals.... they say they've changed, but I can remember their ultra-conservative stance on social issues during their short-lived stunt as the Canadian Alliance.

In my opinion, they will need to work *very* hard to erase that image to appeal more to the fiscal conservatives who have more moderate views on social issues.

I really don't want the Conservatives to win this. Normally I would vote for the Liberals, but after the recent scandals, they just don't deserve my vote. I'll probably end up voting for the NDP or the Bloc :/

It's a really depressing notion that one would vote for the NDP or Bloc when one party is ready to start writing blank cheques to cure all of societies woes without any regard for fiscal responsibility while the other will never be content until Quebec has achieved sovereignty at a cost and continued cost to Canada. Don't forget, Quebec wants to be seperate from Canada but still wants to enjoy all the perks it currently does.

But then what is one to do. After a decade of Conservative corruption and another decade of ultimate Liberal corruption, the bottom line is the taxpayer who continually gets screwed. I suppose what stings the most is that everyday common people have given up which is unfortunate since it is they who hold the power. Politicians see the majority of people don't care what they do, so in true form of human nature, why would they go out of their way to give a shit about the people when the majority of people don't give a shit themselves?

The Liberals are, unfortunately, tired and corrupt. The Conservatives are just...well Harper scares me. The NDP...I might vote for them if there weren't so many weirdos in the party. The Green Party is probably how I'll vote, even though they really haven't got much of a hope of gaining any serious support. Although their popularity is growing, so maybe someday soon...

...and the Green Party isn't full of weirdos? Please, it is way more fringe than the NDP.

I agree with you though that the Conservatives "scare" me. I wouldn't trust Harper to babysit my children let alone run the country.

Harper and the Conservatives don't scare me. I'm voting for them for the only reason that this country desperately needs change, if only for one term.

I can't even fathom anyone who has keep even somewhat abreast of the never ending scandals of the Liberals that are considering voting for them. To me it is as plain as supporting and rewarding corruption. The U.S has its 'War on Terror.' Canada needs a 'War on Corruption.'

But seeing as most people view any type of change as to much of a risk, albeit as slight that the change would be, it is always better to run around like Chicken Little screaming the "sky is falling" than to embrace change as a new beginning other than looking as if it is a step backwards. That's one thing I've always admired about my American neighbours to the south. They embrace change in all facets of life, not run away from it.

Harper and Co. can do a lot of damage in one term. I put scare in quotes because I wouldn't say they actually cause me to be afraid rather I would say that they worry me.

I am very familiar with their brand of fiscal conservatism... we just went through several years of the Harris Conservatives. While I didn't agree with their way of doing things, I could live with that...

What I can't live with is their social conservatism, and I don't think a large majority of Canadians want it either.

I just hope people don't vote Conservative for a "change" because they are going to be in for a shock when they see what they voted into power...

I think I detect Western Canadian angst.

The lack of a credible alternative is a problem.

Which is why personally I think a minority government situation would be best. I'd prefer an NDP/Conservative minority government, but it probably won't happen: it would give both other national parties a taste of running a country, and they could keep each other's excesses in check.

NDP/Liberal would do.

However, I simply don't trust Reform 3.0. They sound and act like people who are absolutely convinced that they are right.

Strangely, the fact that Liberal appointees are finding corruption makes me happy they appointed non-idiots. The gun registry looks like the biggest boondaggle: I know someone working on the project, and the people who where working on it before fucked it up badly.

And therein lies the problem. The Reform party of Canada was founded on the basis of Western power: it was a party only slightly less regional than the Bloc Quebecois in ideology. The two renamings since then have not convinced me they have changed their stripes.

Which is why an NDP/Conservative minorty government would be my dream government. They would have to compromise on almost everything, both sides would get a pile of experience running the country, and the country could see more of their "true" stripes. If things went badly, they could hit the big reset button.

You make a point Yakk.

4 weeks to go 'til the election. I'll just fucking die if the Liberals win a majority. Anybody but,... I just can't afford it anymore.

I'm still undecided and confused, I hate this election it's like you want the lesser of the evils, but all these guys are well not evil but shady.

I found out I have no independant running in my area, Liberal, NDP, and Conservatives. Maybe I'll just throw the party names into a hat and decide that way. Who knows, what a month it will be and the headache is already starting.

If you are feeling apathetic, but don't want to be, here is a simple solution.

Look up when the local all-candidates debate is going to occur. Show up.

Vote for the person who has the best presence at the debate. Or pick another criteria, like the one who attacks the other candidates the least (keep score, heh).

Harper, will probably be a minority government but he will doe well. The hard part will be trying not to resort to "Reform" beliefs.

I think I'll do that, I like the idea.

First of all, Quebec held two referendums on separation and "NO" won twice. What does that tell you about Quebec's desires concerning Canada? That's right: THE PEOPLE OF QUEBEC DO NOT WANT TO SEPARATE. Furthermore, in light of the law passed after the second referendum, Quebec can no longer separate through this method even if the "YES" side won. This is a dead issue. Get over it.

It's always been a battle between the Liberals and the Bloc in Quebec for decades. The only reason I see for the Bloc to win is if the quebecois sense a threat to their culture or status. I personally don't see such a threat, therefore I think the Liberals will win here once again.

On the national scale, I see a definite chance for Conservative minority, although I don't wish for it. I predict a Liberal majority, with Conservative/Bloc minority.

Someone at work's prediction:

In order:
Liberal
Conservative
Bloc
NDP

Nobody has enough seats to form a majority government.

Conservative+Bloc > Liberal+NDP

It starts out with the Liberals being asked to form a government. They fail a vote of non-confidence (NDP+Liberal being not enough to hold confidence).

It being right after an election, the GG asks the Conservatives to form a government. They form a minority government with the Bloc.

The Bloc and Reform proceed to decrease federal power, and increase provincial power. Amoung other things they rewrite the transfer payment calculations to be less punative about natural resource extraction. They possibly also scrap official billingualism, and rewrite the rules for Quebec seperation (to make it easier).

After a half-dozen months, there is a falling out, a vote of non-confidence occurs, and we get another election.

Not my theory, but worth writing up. =)

Sounds entirely possible, and very scary

Just can't see it happening...

Sure they share a more power to the provinces attitude but...

The Bloc is a left of centre party created with the purpose of tearing Quebec out of Canada.

1) Could the Bloc swallow the Conservative's more odious right wing agenda?
2) Who, anywhere outside of Quebec, would respect a federalist party that is willing to share power with a succesionist party? I don't think it would go over very well back home in Alberta.

While I could see the Bloc agreeing to support the Conservatives on certain initiatives they will not form a government together. The Cabinet would neccessarily be made up of both Bloc and Conservative ministers... never going to happen.

On a more^H^H^H^H^H less serious note:
http://politicswatch.com/VoteSelectorQuiz2004.html

Determine your Vote using a simple web voting app! Don't worry about complex issues, just answer yes and no! =)

http://www.selectsmart.com/PoliticsWatch/layton.jpg
Jack Layton Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada (score = 100)
http://www.selectsmart.com/PoliticsWatch/duceppe.jpg
Gilles Duceppe Leader of the Bloc Quebecois (score = 71)

http://www.selectsmart.com/PoliticsWatch/martin.jpg Paul Martin Leader of Liberal Party of Canada, Prime Minister of Canada (score = 42)

http://www.selectsmart.com/PoliticsWatch/harper.jpg Stephen Harper Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (score = 17)

The only surprise for me is that the Bloc is so left of centre... which just underlines why I don't think the Bloc and the Conservatives will be able to work together over any period of time...