Baraka_Guru

Lebanon confirms win for ruling coalition

This is interesting. Will this be a setback for Hezbollah? Some were expecting the strong Hezbollah coalition to win.

Do you see this as a game-changer in the Middle East peace process?
Will it only cause unrest as an outcome of shifting power?
How should the U.S. proceed from here in the grander scheme of Middle Eastern politics?
What should Israel do?

Or is this just business as usual?

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loquitur

It changes nothing, because Hezbollah is still a state-within-a-state, and does not submit to the authority of the central government other than on its own terms. I have no idea how the Lebanese are going to deal with having a private army not subject to state control controlling the southern portion of its country, and threatening the stability of the rest of the country. Right now Hezbollah's leadership is savvy enough to trumpet its "Lebanese-ness" but I doubt that can continue long-term - esp not with huge infusions of cash and money continuing from Iran, and with Syria sitting right next door itching to come back in.

Tully Mars

I saw this this morning. I look at this as a small, hopefully sustainable, change in the political climate of the region. I think this is exactly why all those people screaming about how they "don't care what the rest of the world thinks of the US" were so, so wrong. I don't see this leading to unrest, or more unrest, in the region. It certainly could but I think changes like this will lead to a more stable region. Likely not real soon, probably several bumps in the road. Change here, real change is going to take several decades and generations in my opinion. But overall the region will be more stable in the long run if we can keep moving in this direction.

I saw a report this morning that mentioned Iranian president Ahmadinejad had a televised debate this weekend and got his clocked cleaned. The general public of many of the countries we're having conflicts with do not always agree with their leadership. Iran is a prime example of this I think. The people, in general, like the west and western culture. Everything from clothing to music and now Obama are extremely popular with the youth in the region. The more sensible and less "Us or them, screw you we don't care what you think, bring'em on" we sound the better it is for all. Them and us.

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inBOIL

Hezbollah will attack Israel to provoke a military response. The Lebanese government will be unable to stop them, and the Israeli government will choose to play into Hezbollah's strategy just like they did last time. Until somebody figures out how to 1. get Israel to turn the other cheek for a long, long time, or 2. get Lebanon to successfully take action against Hezbollah, nothing will change.

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dlish

kudos to the lebanese people...

as a person of lebanese heritage, i am glad that the lebanese people have finally done the right thing.

whether or not saad hariri will fulfill his duties as the prime minister remains to be seen, but for me, a nomination for anyone other than hezbollah is a positive change. i could only see the nomination of hezbollah as detrimental to the state of the entire middle east.

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Sticky

Agreed. This says something about the Lebanese people.
In the end they may still now or believe that Hezbollah will do whatever they want but this is the people standing up against Hezbollah.

let's hope that the populations in other countries can be as brave and take similar stands.

let's hope that Hezbollah does not come down hard on the people.

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