Your State, Your Vote - Page 2 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

guyy · 10-17-2008, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

The best possible (but not likely) scenario for Obama: 380 electoral votes to McCain's 158...an overwhelming mandate that would change the political dynamics of the country...at least for the next four years.

I don't think that's the best possible scenario. For one, ND is tied, so you could add 3 to that. Indiana is winnable and Georgia & Montana are reasonably close, too. Some places haven't been polled in a while (e.g., Mississippi & Arizona where McC hasn't been up by that much.) It's conceivable that Obama could crack 400.

By all accounts, McC is running a bad campaign. The only thing he's proven so far is that he can't get it done. I think it's reasonable to assume that he'll continue floundering rather than finishing strong. I wonder whether McC might do better by suspending his campaign, sending Sarah home, and just kicking back for the next few weeks.

Tully Mars · 10-17-2008, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guyy

I don't think that's the best possible scenario. For one, ND is tied, so you could add 3 to that. Indiana is winnable and Georgia & Montana are reasonably close, too. Some places haven't been polled in a while (e.g., Mississippi & Arizona where McC hasn't been up by that much.) It's conceivable that Obama could crack 400.

By all accounts, McC is running a bad campaign. The only thing he's proven so far is that he can't get it done. I think it's reasonable to assume that he'll continue floundering rather than finishing strong. I wonder whether McC might do better by suspending his campaign, sending Sarah home, and just kicking back for the next few weeks.

If Obama proved anything in his finish with Hilary it's that he's completely capable of allowing his opponent every opportunity to finish strong.

All this talk of 380 and 400 is at best best wishful thinking. At worst dangerous.

Personally if he gets 271 I'll be a happy guy.

dc_dux · 10-17-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

If Obama proved anything in his finish with Hilary it's that he's completely capable of allowing his opponent every opportunity to finish strong.

All this talk of 380 and 400 is at best best wishful thinking. At worst dangerous.

Personally if he gets 271 I'll be a happy guy.

I understand what your're saying about wishful thinking and I agree.

But I dont see the comparison to the primaries and certainly there is no complacency on the part of the Obama campaign.

I'll take 270 but I want and hope to see a mandate, although I dont expect to popular vote to exceed 10%.

Tully Mars · 10-17-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

I understand what your're saying about wishful thinking and I agree.

But I dont see the comparison to the primaries and certainly there is no complacency on the part of the Obama campaign.

I'll take 270 but I want and hope to see a mandate, although I dont expect to popular vote to exceed 10%.

I'm hoping and think I'm seeing he learned from the primaries. New Hampshire and Hilary may have taught him and his supporters some valuable lessons.

guyy · 10-17-2008, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

All this talk of 380 and 400 is at best best wishful thinking. At worst dangerous.

Personally if he gets 271 I'll be a happy guy.

Well, yeah me too.

I'm just saying it's conceivable. Needless to say, it hinges on the Obama campaign getting the vote out.

I do think McCain has a tougher sell than Hillary Clinton.

shoegirl · 10-18-2008, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CinnamonGirl

Lots of Ohioans for Obama... and I have to say... where the hell are you people? 'Cause I'm seeing all kinds of McCain signs in southwest Ohio. I think I've seen maybe one Obama sign.

Our county is as red as it can be, that's the only problem here. But, my neighbor just put up a yard sign, so that's two for my street.

djtestudo · 10-18-2008, 08:01 PM

I live in a state where the totals of 20 of the 24 jurisdictions add up to a close split with the Democrats ahead. The problem is the other four, which contain about 55-60% of the population and are about 85% Democrat.

Until we go to a split Electoral College vote, my vote means nothing in the presidential election.

View Poll Results: Do you fit in with your state?
I vote Republican, I live in a red state	4	6.78%
I vote Democrat, I live in a red state	18	30.51%
I vote Republican, I live in a blue state	5	8.47%
I vote Democrat, I live in a blue state	22	37.29%
I vote for a 3rd Party. I have given up hope.	6	10.17%
I vote for a 3rd Party. My state stands a chance of voting with me.	0	0%
I prefer not to respond.	1	1.69%
Other. See below.	5	8.47%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 59. You may not vote on this poll

10-18-2008, 08:01 PM	#47 (permalink)
djtestudo Baltimoron Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD	I live in a state where the totals of 20 of the 24 jurisdictions add up to a close split with the Democrats ahead. The problem is the other four, which contain about 55-60% of the population and are about 85% Democrat. Until we go to a split Electoral College vote, my vote means nothing in the presidential election. __________________ "Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun