genuinegirly

We all know that the popular vote means jack crap in the US. The Electoral College is the elitist group that actually casts the votes and makes the big decision.

So, will your voice be heard in your state on the big day? Do you fall in with the majority? When you check out the maps that label a state as either red or blue, do you relate to the majority? Are you a die-hard Green or Libertarian and are frustrated that your voice will never make it to the Electoral College?

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My Take:

I live in California. California pretty much always sides with the Democrats, especially this election year. I have always voted Libertarian. This is the first year that I do not support the Libertarian candidate. I have not decided who I will vote for, but it will most likely be a third party write-in. I do not expect my state to reflect my vote. I am not frustrated with this fact. I accept it as an inevitable reality and hope that sometime our system will hear the now-silenced voices of our enthusiastic third parties. By casting a vote for Green, Libertarian, Constitution, Independent, or other under-represented parties, I show the system that I want these dissenting voices to be heard.

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"Sometimes I have to remember that things are brought to me for a reason, either for my own lessons or for the benefit of others." Cynthetiq

"violence is no more or less real than non-violence." roachboy

filtherton

Well, if recent polls are to be believed, then my state, a pretty reliably blue state, will continue to be a blue state.

I don't think my voice will be heard. Hopefully be drowned out in a cacophony of people saying the same thing as me.

Derwood

when was the last time the electoral college went against the popular vote in their state?

PonyPotato

Virginia is historically a red state (and so was Ohio, for the most part) but I have always voted Democrat. Northern VA tends to be largely blue, and the population density up here makes it possible that Virginia could go blue for the first time in decades.

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— Henri-Frédéric Amiel

flstf

I live in an Appalachian area of southern Ohio. Some of the people I talk to around here think Obama is some kind of Muslim who is sympathetic to terrorists. He might have a chance to win Ohio but will have a difficult time in the rural areas. I will vote for him.

Cynthetiq

I always have written in my vote from the days I was a registered independent.

because I'd like to vote in the primary elections, I registered as a republican, but still write in almost all my candidates.

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Derwood

i'm so, so sorry

/lives in Columbus

flstf

Don't be, we love it out here in the country. We sometimes go days without seeing another person, just deer, coyotes, owls, raccoons, etc...

Derwood

different strokes...

snowy

Oregon is interesting as the heavily populated Willamette Valley is largely Democrat, and the more sparsely populated areas in the central/eastern/southern parts of the state are Republican. Depending on fluctuations in population and popular opinion, we can be considered a swing state, but we usually go blue, and we will do so again this fall. Obama will likely win Oregon with a comfortable margin.

I vote Democrat.

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If I am not better, at least I am different. --Jean-Jacques Rousseau

dc_dux

The Senate race in Oregon should be interesting. It is not one the Democrats are expecting to win (the incumbent is a Republican)...but it could put then closer to the 60 supermajority.

All the more reason to vote in any state...there are always more races/issues on the ballot.

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

abaya

Oh, lovely. What are their sources? Do they ever mention where they got this info? Does anyone ever say, "Well, how do you know that's true?" or do they just accept everything as fact?

Man, I would really love to meet one of these people in real life. What a strange conversation we would have...

__________________
And think not you can direct the course of Love;
for Love, if it finds you worthy, directs your course.
--Khalil Gibran

YaWhateva

What about a swing state? I vote Democrat and I live in Albuquerque, NM. We went blue in 2000, red in 2004, and are leaning blue now.

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“If the Americans go in and overthrow Saddam Hussein and it's clean, he has nothing, I will apologize to the nation, and I will not trust the Bush administration again.” - Bill O'Reilly

"This is my United States of Whateva!"

flstf

From what I can tell they get their information from their brother-in-law, TV soundbites, or the guy down at the end of the bar. It is useless to argue the point, it is like trying to discuss evolution vs. creationism with a fundamentalist who believes the Bible literally. They know what they know and a black man with a funny name that sounds alien to them only reinforces their inclination to be wary of the unknown.

dc_dux

and the "Obama is the Anti-Christ" emails:

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

abaya

How depressing. I know you're right, and yet... What you're saying is that they're basically fundamentalist about a form of racism and xenophobia (even if Obama was born and bred in the U.S. of A., speaks English, been more involved in a church than McCain ever has been, etc), right?

One of my best friends (she's liberal) has a mother who won't vote for Obama based on his name. It's not "American" enough. You have got to be kidding me. Please, just say you're a closet racist and be done with it, yeah? I can always appreciate honesty, even if I dislike the honest opinion. We can get somewhere, with honesty. But this bullshit about "his name" and god knows what else... no, it just drives us in circles as a nation.

__________________
And think not you can direct the course of Love;
for Love, if it finds you worthy, directs your course.
--Khalil Gibran

Tully Mars

No option for those registered as independents? I've always reg. ind. and I've voted in every election since I turned 18. I currently live in Mexico but I believe my ballot for POTUS goes into the Oregon tally. Already sent in my ballot. Voted for Obama.
-----Added 7/10/2008 at 02 : 13 : 16-----
I have some new neighbors across the street from me, they're from the upper mid west. Renting, looking to buy. We we're talking yesterday and they said while they've always voted GOP they were going to hold their nose and vote for Obama. The issue of him being black came up and he said "I can vote for a black guy, might not have been there ten years ago..." And she interrupted "Yeah, it's not like he's gay or something." Wonder if they realize their are at least 5-7 gay couple living within a block of them.

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Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

shoegirl

Ohio for Obama!! (I obviously vote Democrat)

As for location, I'm right between Cincinnati and Dayton.

ASU2003

Ohio is a state that could go either way. I go past plenty of McCain yard signs, and I think this state is still up in the air.

I still haven't figured out who I'm voting for. Both have some plans that just seem like bad ideas.

ratbastid

I'm a Democrat, and my state, North Carolina, hasn't voted for a Democratic president since Carter in 76. The Presidential race is dead even here at 48% apiece.

absorbentishe

Okay, I'm in Ohio, up north. I live in a Very red area (suburb of T town). I see more Obama signs in yards than McCain. I'm voting the way I always have.

laconic1

I live in Colorado. With the exception of Clinton in '92 Colorado has been red since either '64 or '68, I don't remember off the top of my head. The polls are showing Obama starting to inch ahead here though.

I used to vote Republican exclusively. I voted for Bush in '00. I've been really dissatisfied with the way Republicans have gone about their business. Campaigns based on least common denominator fear mongering. Massive expansion of government and huge deficits under Republican control. I voted for Badnarik in '04, and have gravitated towards the Libertarian party in recent years. I am still registered as a Republican so I can participate in caucuses and primaries and try to influence getting a decent Republican candidate for the general election. I'm not thrilled with Bob Barr, I don't think he is a "real" Libertarian, but I think he is better than McCain.

Aladdin Sane

An aside:
As I write, about 13% have admitted voting Republican and 71% have admitted voting Democrat. This supports something I've suspected for many months. TFP is far less politically diverse than any other place I frequent; whether it be my church, my office, or my local public park.

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abaya

What do you expect from a porn-based site?

__________________
And think not you can direct the course of Love;
for Love, if it finds you worthy, directs your course.
--Khalil Gibran

Dammitall

I live in a one of the most conservative Republican areas in a longtime blue state. While Obama will very likely carry the presidential election here, I am very interested to see the outcome of our local Congressional race. The 8-term Republican incumbent (ironically a vocal proponent of term limits when he was first elected in '94) is being challenged by the former Democratic mayor of the largest city in the county, which has been turning more and more blue in recent years.

The incumbent will probably win, but there's growing sentiment that he's had enough time in office and it's time for him to go. I'll be waiting to see if that opinion is strong enough to boot him out of office.

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roachboy

i live in massachusetts. very blue. i could vote closer to my actual politics and for nader here and it'd make no difference. but i'll probably do my insignificant bit to prevent the fiasco that'd be another 4 years of republican rule and vote obama.

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spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

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inBOIL

I live in California. Since my vote has no chance of changing the electoral college outcome, I always vote for Libertarian or Green candidates, to try and focus more attention on those alternatives.

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And you believe Bush and the liberals and divorced parents and gays and blacks and the Christian right and fossil fuels and Xbox are all to blame, meanwhile you yourselves create an ad where your kid hits you in the head with a baseball and you don't understand the message that the problem is you.

guyy

I'm in Wisconsin, in Dane Co., near Madison. Democratic turnout in Dane & Milwaukee counties largely determines who wins statewide races. That's one of the reasons why i'm working for the Obama campaign.

flstf

My fellow Ohio voters, gotta love 'em.

Grasshopper Green

I live in Utah. If Jesus Christ ran on the Democratic ticket, He'd lose here.

I vote Democrat.

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"They say that patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings; steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king"

Formerly Medusa

rcefstsfecr

I live in Missouri. We are the definition of a swing state. We have voted for the president-elect over 90% of the time since (I can't remember, but it's documented on the net). I vote the Democrat ticket.

CinnamonGirl

That blonde woman in the video was super-annoying.


I also live in Ohio. I'm Independant, but I've voted Democrat in the last two elections, and will in this election as well. I've heard Ohio referred to as a "purple state," because of the mix, and it's such a swing state, and all that... which may be true, but where I am, I see mostly red.

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"...for though she was ordinary, she possessed health, wit, courage, charm, and cheerfulness. But because she was not beautiful, no one ever seemed to notice these other qualities, which is so often the way of the world."


"Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?"

Derwood

Ohio, Democrat

resetman

aha..

i also believe ohio will go for Obama..

what is it all about that obama anti-christ email? get real dude.

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let freedom ring

CinnamonGirl

Lots of Ohioans for Obama... and I have to say... where the hell are you people? 'Cause I'm seeing all kinds of McCain signs in southwest Ohio. I think I've seen maybe one Obama sign.

__________________
"...for though she was ordinary, she possessed health, wit, courage, charm, and cheerfulness. But because she was not beautiful, no one ever seemed to notice these other qualities, which is so often the way of the world."


"Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?"

Derwood

NOT in southwest Ohio

Tully Mars

Well I hope there's enough of you guys in the southwest area. Real Clear Politics has it a 3.2% for Obama right now in their poll averages. They have the poll by the Ohio Newspapers at +2% McCain. Can't get much closer then that.

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Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

dc_dux

Fortunately, Ohio may not be as signficant as it was in 04....not that I wouldnt like to see him carry the state.

Assuming Obama holds all the blue states from 04 (and none are really in danger)....he only need to win Iowa (red in 04), which has been conceded to him, and only one of these scenarios:

...Virginia, where is up by 7%.
or
...Colorado and New Mexico, where he is up by 6% in both

or Colorado and Nevada

or
...Florida, where he is up by from 3-5%

or
... Missouri, where it is a toss up

or
...North Carolina, where he is inching ahead

Any one of those and Obama breaks the 270 electoral barrier. McCain really needs to win all these states....and red states like Indiana and West Virginia are still in play ...creating even more scenarios for an Obama electoral win.

Another reminder of why the national poll numbers are meaningless.
-----Added 17/10/2008 at 01 : 55 : 49-----
Here is this wildest scenario:

MCain pulls out all of the red states where he is trailing -CO, NC, and VA, toss up states -FL and OH, and those states where he is slightly ahead - IN, MO and WV

...and Obama wins NM and NV:

Electoral votes - 269-269

The best possible (but not likely) scenario for Obama: 380 electoral votes to McCain's 158...an overwhelming mandate that would change the political dynamics of the country...at least for the next four years.

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

Tully Mars

A lot of these state polls have Obama up but not by that much. Many are within the margin of error. With nearly three weeks left I cringe every time I hear land side or see numbers like 380. Much of Obama's base is made up of the youth vote. The youth are notorious for not showing up. Through the primaries Obama was able to keep them fired up and showing up. If they think it's a land side they may think there's no need for them, personally, to trudge through the snow and rain or stand in line. I don't think the planets would need to line up in any particular order for us to be seeing McCain take the oath in Jan. Then we're just one heart beat away from President Palin and the first dude.

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

Derwood

Obama is doing an amazing job of "get out and vote" promotions in all the swing states. His big message on the stump is "don't get cocky, we cant' win without every vote."