An Upcoming Conservative Bloc in North America? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Baraka_Guru · 09-09-2008, 08:09 AM

As many know by now, both the U.S. and Canada are headed to the polls this fall for federal elections. Although much is still up in the air, it's natural to speculate what the outcome might be even this early.

When I think of the current climate, the recent past, and how things can often happen, a part of me sees the distinct possibility of a conservative bloc in North America, the first of its time since Reagan/Mulroney. The difference, of course, is that the mode (and mood) of politics has changed since the '80s.

How do you see a conservative bloc acting in the post-9/11 era?

Personally, I'm concerned. The increased boldness of the Neocons has yet to be reinforced by a Tory majority in Canada. Think of how things have changed since Reagan. There hasn't yet been a strong Conservative government in Canada since he was president.

Harper has in the past already proven he likes the idea of aligning his politics with the Bush administration. An example: Harper, Bush Share Roots in Controversial Philosophy :: Mediacheck :: thetyee.ca. The article generally states that Harper and Bush (and their advisors) share some of the same Neocon roots. Harper, however, has been relatively cautious, being that his minority is but slight.

How would a Tory majority change things? What would a Harper/McCain North America look like?

Current polls:
Canada–
(Ipsos Reid)
Conservative 33%
Liberal 31%
NDP 16%
Green 10%

America–
(American Research Group)
McCain 46%
Obama 47%
Undecided 7%

dc_dux · 09-09-2008, 08:27 AM

Baraka....you left out an important component...at least from the US side of the equation.

The US Congress, a co-equal branch of government....at least in theory, if not in practice when the Republicans controlled Congress in most of Bush's first six years.

The Democrats will increase their majorities in both the House and Senate. The Democratic majority in the House of 235-199 could increase by 5-10 seats. In the Senate, the 51-49 majority could increase by 4-7 seats.

If there is a McCain presidency, one thing you wont see is a complete capituation by Congress in the same manner as during the Bush first term.

ratbastid · 09-09-2008, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

America–
(American Research Group)
McCain 46%
Obama 47%
Undecided 7%

Aggregate polls show a tight race, but don't reflect the reality of the US electoral system. Electoral College projections show Obama ahead by 40 or so electoral votes as of today, with something between 100 and 150 up for grabs. The REAL election isn't at all tight within one point. It's not a done deal, but it's not within one point.

Democratic Convention Watch has it 246 to 192 for Obama with 100 undecided.
Real Clear Politics has it 217 to 174 for Obama with 147 undecided.

Baraka_Guru · 09-09-2008, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

The Democrats will increase their majorities in both the House and Senate. The Democratic majority in the House of 235-199 could increase by 5-10 seats. In the Senate, the 51-49 majority could increase by 4-7 seats.

If there is a McCain presidency, one thing you wont see is a complete capituation by Congress in the same manner as during the Bush first term.

Okay, this is a kind of relief I was looking for. So you're saying that Congress would keep McCain on a kind of leash?

I like the thought of this Democratic/Republican Senate/Congress/White House balancing act—more liberals being added to the mix. It's kind of like the House of Commons, where you can see the executive counterbalanced, especially where a minority government is concerned.

So the Congress can maintain a balance of power? Haven't we seen Bush strong-arm his way though Congress?

ratbastid, thanks for the clarification. I don't usually take these polls too seriously, unless there is a consensus of a big imbalance between candidates....

ratbastid · 09-09-2008, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

If there is a McCain presidency, one thing you wont see is a complete capituation by Congress in the same manner as during the Bush first term.

Right! Instead you'll see a mostly-capitulation by Congress like the Bush second term!

Seriously, I'm VERY disappointed with Congress right now. I think we need somebody in the White House who's perhaps got a scholarly background in the Constitution, who can undo the damage this Unitary Executive has wrought. Or Congress could fucking grow a pair, but I'm pretty resigned about that.

dc_dux · 09-09-2008, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

Okay, this is a kind of relief I was looking for. So you're saying that Congress would keep McCain on a kind of leash?

I like the thought of this Democratic/Republican Senate/Congress/White House balancing act—more liberals being added to the mix. It's kind of like the House of Commons, where you can see the executive counterbalanced, especially where a minority government is concerned.

So the Congress can maintain a balance of power? Haven't we seen Bush strong-arm his way though Congress?

One can expect that a Democratic Congress will keep McCain, if elected, on a leash...the question is how long or tight is that leash.

A president always has the larger and more visible "bully pulpit" and speaks with one voice as opposed to the Congress, where the minority party, particularly in the Senate, has a voice.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratbastid

Right! Instead you'll see a mostly-capitulation by Congress like the Bush second term!

Seriously, I'm VERY disappointed with Congress right now. I think we need somebody in the White House who's perhaps got a scholarly background in the Constitution, who can undo the damage this Unitary Executive has wrought. Or Congress could fucking grow a pair, but I'm pretty resigned about that.

Some may point to the recent FISA vote that Bush strong-armed through the Democratic Congress.

I would point to the numerous oversight hearings and bills that the Democrats enacted in the last two years to hold the Executive branch more accountable for its actions.

Willravel · 09-09-2008, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratbastid

I think we need somebody in the White House who's perhaps got a scholarly background in the Constitution, who can undo the damage this Unitary Executive has wrought.

You mean like a Harvard educated man that has taught Constitutional law for 12 years at a respected college? But where will we find someone like that?! Where?!!?

dc_dux · 09-09-2008, 09:06 AM

Its interesting to see who the citizens of the world would prefer as the next US president.

From a BBC poll today:

Quote:

The BBC World Service survey found the most common view in all nations polled was that Obama -- who staged a euphoric European tour two months ago that included a speech to 200,000 fans in Berlin -- should win in November.

An average of 46 percent of all those questioned thought U.S. relations with the rest of the world would improve if Obama took office, compared to just 20 percent for McCain, the survey of 22,500 people found.

Global approval ratings for the United States are currently low -- a BBC World Service poll earlier this year found 49 percent of people surveyed had a negative view of U.S. influence, compared to 32 who viewed it positively.

Those most optimistic about an Obama presidency’s impact on U.S. external relations were people in America’s NATO allies -- Canada, France, Germany, Britain and Italy -- as well as Australia, Nigeria and Kenya, where Obama has family.

"Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents," said Doug Miller, chairman of GlobeScan which conducted the poll.

"Given how negative America’s international image is at present, it is quite striking that only one in five think a McCain presidency would improve on the Bush administrations relations with the world."

World wants Obama to be next U.S. president: poll

Not that it will have any influence on the election....or address your question about a potential conservative North America.

09-09-2008, 08:09 AM	#1 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	An Upcoming Conservative Bloc in North America? As many know by now, both the U.S. and Canada are headed to the polls this fall for federal elections. Although much is still up in the air, it's natural to speculate what the outcome might be even this early. When I think of the current climate, the recent past, and how things can often happen, a part of me sees the distinct possibility of a conservative bloc in North America, the first of its time since Reagan/Mulroney. The difference, of course, is that the mode (and mood) of politics has changed since the '80s. How do you see a conservative bloc acting in the post-9/11 era? Personally, I'm concerned. The increased boldness of the Neocons has yet to be reinforced by a Tory majority in Canada. Think of how things have changed since Reagan. There hasn't yet been a strong Conservative government in Canada since he was president. Harper has in the past already proven he likes the idea of aligning his politics with the Bush administration. An example: Harper, Bush Share Roots in Controversial Philosophy :: Mediacheck :: thetyee.ca. The article generally states that Harper and Bush (and their advisors) share some of the same Neocon roots. Harper, however, has been relatively cautious, being that his minority is but slight. How would a Tory majority change things? What would a Harper/McCain North America look like? Current polls: Canada– (Ipsos Reid) Conservative 33% Liberal 31% NDP 16% Green 10% America– (American Research Group) McCain 46% Obama 47% Undecided 7% __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

09-09-2008, 08:27 AM	#2 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	Baraka....you left out an important component...at least from the US side of the equation. The US Congress, a co-equal branch of government....at least in theory, if not in practice when the Republicans controlled Congress in most of Bush's first six years. The Democrats will increase their majorities in both the House and Senate. The Democratic majority in the House of 235-199 could increase by 5-10 seats. In the Senate, the 51-49 majority could increase by 4-7 seats. If there is a McCain presidency, one thing you wont see is a complete capituation by Congress in the same manner as during the Bush first term. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 09-09-2008 at 08:29 AM..