An Upcoming Conservative Bloc in North America?
 

As many know by now, both the U.S. and Canada are headed to the polls this fall for federal elections. Although much is still up in the air, it's natural to speculate what the outcome might be even this early.

When I think of the current climate, the recent past, and how things can often happen, a part of me sees the distinct possibility of a conservative bloc in North America, the first of its time since Reagan/Mulroney. The difference, of course, is that the mode (and mood) of politics has changed since the '80s.

How do you see a conservative bloc acting in the post-9/11 era?

Personally, I'm concerned. The increased boldness of the Neocons has yet to be reinforced by a Tory majority in Canada. Think of how things have changed since Reagan. There hasn't yet been a strong Conservative government in Canada since he was president.

Harper has in the past already proven he likes the idea of aligning his politics with the Bush administration. An example: Harper, Bush Share Roots in Controversial Philosophy :: Mediacheck :: thetyee.ca. The article generally states that Harper and Bush (and their advisors) share some of the same Neocon roots. Harper, however, has been relatively cautious, being that his minority is but slight.

How would a Tory majority change things? What would a Harper/McCain North America look like?

Current polls:
Canada–
(Ipsos Reid)
Conservative 33%
Liberal 31%
NDP 16%
Green 10%

America–
(American Research Group)
McCain 46%
Obama 47%
Undecided 7%

Baraka....you left out an important component...at least from the US side of the equation.

The US Congress, a co-equal branch of government....at least in theory, if not in practice when the Republicans controlled Congress in most of Bush's first six years.

The Democrats will increase their majorities in both the House and Senate. The Democratic majority in the House of 235-199 could increase by 5-10 seats. In the Senate, the 51-49 majority could increase by 4-7 seats.

If there is a McCain presidency, one thing you wont see is a complete capituation by Congress in the same manner as during the Bush first term.

Aggregate polls show a tight race, but don't reflect the reality of the US electoral system. Electoral College projections show Obama ahead by 40 or so electoral votes as of today, with something between 100 and 150 up for grabs. The REAL election isn't at all tight within one point. It's not a done deal, but it's not within one point.

Democratic Convention Watch has it 246 to 192 for Obama with 100 undecided.
Real Clear Politics has it 217 to 174 for Obama with 147 undecided.

Okay, this is a kind of relief I was looking for. So you're saying that Congress would keep McCain on a kind of leash?

I like the thought of this Democratic/Republican Senate/Congress/White House balancing act—more liberals being added to the mix. It's kind of like the House of Commons, where you can see the executive counterbalanced, especially where a minority government is concerned.

So the Congress can maintain a balance of power? Haven't we seen Bush strong-arm his way though Congress?

ratbastid, thanks for the clarification. I don't usually take these polls too seriously, unless there is a consensus of a big imbalance between candidates....

Right! Instead you'll see a mostly-capitulation by Congress like the Bush second term!

Seriously, I'm VERY disappointed with Congress right now. I think we need somebody in the White House who's perhaps got a scholarly background in the Constitution, who can undo the damage this Unitary Executive has wrought. Or Congress could fucking grow a pair, but I'm pretty resigned about that.

One can expect that a Democratic Congress will keep McCain, if elected, on a leash...the question is how long or tight is that leash.

A president always has the larger and more visible "bully pulpit" and speaks with one voice as opposed to the Congress, where the minority party, particularly in the Senate, has a voice.

Some may point to the recent FISA vote that Bush strong-armed through the Democratic Congress.

I would point to the numerous oversight hearings and bills that the Democrats enacted in the last two years to hold the Executive branch more accountable for its actions.

You mean like a Harvard educated man that has taught Constitutional law for 12 years at a respected college? But where will we find someone like that?! Where?!!?

Its interesting to see who the citizens of the world would prefer as the next US president.

From a BBC poll today:
Not that it will have any influence on the election....or address your question about a potential conservative North America.