Charlatan

So it looks like there will be a Federal Election called this weekend. The only way I can interact with this election, the issue and the people is through the Internet (you can't imagine how little coverage Canadian politics gets in the local and international press - imagine zero and you are close).

I am looking to you my TFP friends to help me keep up on the news on the ground. To help me understand the issues of this election and how things are playing out.

I am having a difficult time determining the mood of the nation (there is almost no coverage of people like Layton or Duceppe - is it really all about Harper and Dion)?

One poll I just read suggests that when the dust settles, Harper could be able to squeak through with a majority. How realistic do you think this is? Will Harper be able to stand on his, "Promises Made, Promises Kept" and "Five Point Plan" ideals that he put forward in the last election? Or has his record been less than stellar?

What are you thinking?

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

There was a poll recently that suggested this might be true of Harper (i.e. he might be able to get a majority):

This makes me a bit worried, but at the same time it should be somewhat expected. Harper has been a political shark over the last several months. He's been cornering the Liberals and has been getting them to make themselves look bad while making the Tories look good. All of this will be thrown back up into their faces, all because the Liberals didn't want an early election because "Canadians [weren't] ready for another election."

Dion has been weak despite his attempts to sound like a critic of Harper's agenda and related performance.

Unfortunately, I haven't had my nose in the news for a long time, so I can't comment much more beyond the general feel for things. All I can say is that Layton has been looking more like a leader than Dion and it's driving me nuts because it's the Liberals who normally stand a chance to take the Tories out of power, not the NDP. I can only hope the NDP wins more seats, but it's up to the Liberals to at least keep the Tories out of a majority. I'm not sure this is going to happen.

In the run-up to the election, I'll be sure to keep abreast of the goings on. I'll try to keep things alive in what we can make of a "Tilted Canadian Politics." I'm sure fresnelly and a few others wouldn't mind pitching in....

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Charlatan

I find it very interesting what you are saying about Layton. The only thing I have read about him was a brief mention that he was one of the leaders invited to Harper's House for tea to discuss playing nice with Harper's agenda in the House of Commons (a place that Harper seems to want to label as dysfunctional despite getting most of his bills passed into law -- with only a few adjustments).

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

Make no mistake: Harper knows what he's doing. I've yet to see anything to the contrary. Despite my disagreeing with his party's policies, I give him a lot of credit. Right now he's probably the shrewdest politician in North America.

I'm truly frightened by a Tory majority. And with the circus that's unfolding south of the border, another Republican president on top of that will make me even more uneasy...especially if their terms coincide. *Shudder*

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

fresnelly

It's still early and the parties are just getting their ducks in a row. Most of the chatter is still about "Will he or won't he?" and what the house could look like afterwards. Policy talk is only just ramping up. I suspect the Liberals main attack will focus on Food safety and the Conservatives' industry self regulation policies.

Liberals call for Ritz's resignation over listeriosis outbreak

One interesting story is that the Green Party now has an MP after independant Blair Wilson signed up so they could get podium at the debates. (fingers crossed!) The Conservatives are arguing against this because the Liberal Party and Green Party have stated in the past that they wouldn't run candidates against each other and this means the debate would be unfairly stacked.

globeandmail.com: Let Elizabeth May be heard

But enough of that. Did you hear the one about the US Republican VP Candidate?

__________________
Building an artificial intelligence that appreciates Mozart is easy. Building an A.I. that appreciates a theme restaurant is the real challenge - Kit Roebuck - Nine Planets Without Intelligent Life

Baraka_Guru

Yes, that's right! I'm looking forward to this. I hope it goes through; it would be a victory for our political system.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Willravel

Amen to that. You kanucks have no idea how often I cite your government as
an example of how to fix things down here in Canada's basement. We've seen what a half Tory can do to the UK, basically gutting and leaving Labour to wither and die. The last thing we need is another western power fall to neo-conservatism.

Neeways, while if I were a Canadia, I'd still be Green, I understand that the only way to beat Harper is Canada Lib. It's disconcerting and interesting at the same time that you have two reasonably sized liberal parties, Liberal and NDP. Is there a concern that the division could allow the conservatives an advantage?

Charlatan

The Liberal Party of Canada is not "liberal" in the sense that you might think it is. It is very centrist. In Canadian terms centrist is "socially liberal" and "fiscally conservative".

The NDP is much further to the left than just about anything you can imagine in the US. Which, to the rest of the world, means they are just left of centre.

The Conservatives were once two parties. The Progressive Conservatives and the Reform (later Alliance) Party. The PCs were once (in Canadian terms) just to the right of centre. They held office, with prime minister Brian Mulroney, during much of the Regan years. The PC party never really recovered.

The Reform Party was both fiscally and socially conservative. It was a fringe party (largely made of Western ideologues) that wanted "change". They were very popular in the west and managed to only win one or two seats East of Manitoba.

Thanks to a push to "unite the right" the two parties joined to form The Conservative Party. From what I can see, the progressive part of the progressive conservatives was excised both in name and spirit from the party. It is, more or less, The Reform Party with a few more members and an ability to win seats in the East (mostly thanks to the Liberal Party being massively corrupt and, in many ridings, unelectable).

Add to the mix, Quebec and it's Party of separation The Bloc Quebecquois and you have the makings of minority governments.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Willravel

Great information, thanks! I'm ashamed to say that I'm mostly ignorant to Canadian politics (thus the reference to the Torys from the UK). We hear echos of policy down here, but the mechanics elude us. Part of me is curious to see if the NDP and Libs would be interested in also combining to combat the Torys, but honestly I hate the two party "Coke or Pepsi" system down here. Having more than two viable options is a privilege, I hope you guy understand that.

Charlatan

The closest we've had to this sort of combining forces is when the Liberals were in a minority government and the NDP had enough seats to give them the balance of power (i.e. enough seats to have a majority). It was that sort of situation that brought about Universal Health Care in Canada.

I don't see the New Democratic Party merging with the Liberal Party any time soon. The Liberals, even as centrists, have too many members that lean to the right.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

highthief

Dion is making the same mistake John Tory made in the Ontario election - he's stickign stubbornly to a bad a idea (the carbon tax) that will kill him at the polls.

With the uncertain state of the economy and the rise in the cost of livng, the last thing people will accept is more taxation.

Harper will win, certainly a strong minority, and yes, possibly a majority.

__________________
Si vis pacem parabellum.

Baraka_Guru

Okay, what Charlatan said.... but also: both the Bloc Quebecois and the Parti Quebecois, despite their issues of separation/sovereignty, are social democratic parties.

The Tories are virtually the only right-wing party in Canada.

* * * * *

highthief, you have a good point. I just hope you're wrong. Dion must have someone in the party who can tell him how to win an election....

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Sticky

I don't understand this. The Liberals put a candidate up in every riding in Canada. How could they not run candidates against each other?

No, I don't think they do. There is too much internal politics involved there. You can bet that all the names you saw last time are thinking about what this means for them if the Tories win another minority (or more) - Dion will be canned as leader before the next election, that means I better start positioning myslef again.

__________________
Sticky The Stickman

CandleInTheDark

I for one am excited for the upcoming election. While it is wrong to underestimate the Liberal party at any time, I think that by the time this election is over you will see the Liberals smashed into the ground. The Liberal version of 1990s conservatives. For too long the Liberal Party has decided they know what is best for us. Their legacy is big government, compromised freedom of speech, compromised property rights, and compromised federalism.

The downside is that I do not see a Conservative majority as being successive. While I commend Stephen Harper on slowly selling Canadians the "right side of things", I believe the Canadian right currently lacks the grassroots activism, media influence, and academic atmosphere that the American right or Canadian left has. I hope that changes. I hope Stephen Harper is successful with his top down strategy of selling the conservatism to Canadians. But the left in Canada is still a titan in activism, journalism, and academia; a goliath to our David.

__________________
Where there is doubt there is freedom.

Charlatan

And I hope it stays that way. I am fine with the right being there as a balance to keep us from veering too far left (just as I am happy that the NDP is around for the opposite reason) I do not want a nation that thinks with a conservative mind or dreams with a conservative heart.

Balance in all things is essential.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

CandleInTheDark

I wish I could agree with you that there is a balance. There is not. The currect state of affairs is such that we have a domineering leftist political culture. When the Toronto Star and CTV omit center important aspects on Stephen Harper's testimony regarding the non-existant Cadman affair, that is not balance. A media culture that purposefully conspires with the Liberal Party is not balance. A campus culture that ridicules right leaning students and faculty is not balance. A student union that silences its members because the "debate on abortion is over" is not balance.

__________________
Where there is doubt there is freedom.

tiltedbc

I agree that Harper will win the election and most likely get a majority. The Liberal party picking Dion as leader already did themselves in. Pardon my french, but the guy is a fucking idiot and has more trouble with english than Harper has with French.

As usual, I'll vote for the Marijuana party if possible. I like their rallies where they give out free drugs and whatnot.

Charlatan

THE ELECTION IS ON!

October 14th is election day.

The last election was over Christmas and this one is over Thanksgiving... and both were because of Harper. What does he have against Canadians enjoying their holidays...


Harper had vowed that the election would take place every four years unless a minority government was voted no confidence. I think this goes against his old mantra of Promises Made, Promises Kept. I realize he broke that mantra a long time ago but this one is just another example of him not doing what he said he would do.

How do you feel about Harper breaking his own law?

Now I just need to figure out if I even qualify to vote.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

It reveals that he's doing it because he sees the possibility of a majority. This doesn't make me feel very good. Harper has been tolerable because of his slim minority. I really don't want to see what he does with power.

Now they're saying the Tories are making inroads in Quebec....

Good luck.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

CandleInTheDark

Has anyone read that law? It clearly states the power of the Governor General is untouched. So while he may have broken the spirit of the law, the letter of the law is unbroken.

__________________
Where there is doubt there is freedom.

Yakk

Techincally, they managed to get a sleeper agent elected to be head of the PC party, who then sold the party's name to the Reform party. This wasn't that hard, as the PC's party uniform support over the nation was insufficient to elect more than a handful of MPs.

Canadian splinter parties are mostly relics of regional parties, grown in stature. Imagine if a Texan party split off from the Republicans because the Republicans became too liberal for them. Or a California party formed, because the Democrats where not liberal enough for them.

It's a good idea, and it isn't higher taxes. It is really fucking easy to make a carbon tax really close to revenue neutral.

You mean, they oversaw huge tax reductions and deficit paydowns, and thus they are the party of big government? I'm just checking.

Who do you believe -- a grieving widow, or the tape recordings of Harper? Wait a second, they both agree that financial incentives where offered to an independant member of parlaiment to change their vote, and Harper knew about it.

Trust Stephen Harper to follow his own laws. I'm sorry, I meant break. :-)

Either he meant it at the time, in which case it is promises made, promises broken. Or he wasted the time of the parliament on a bunch of pointless posturing garbage.

Which is the case?

__________________
Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

Sticky

I don't believe this is the case.
I think that they are calling the election now becuase of the uncertainty in the future for the economy. If they call it now they feel they will at leat win a minority. If they wait and the conomu tanks then the outlook for them only gets worse.

__________________
Sticky The Stickman

Baraka_Guru

Oh, hey! Another fall election?

No more Liberal support for Tories, Ignatieff pledges

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Leto

fuck. another election.

---------- Post added at 04:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:18 PM ----------


You forgot to mention that when they first merged, they called themselves the Canadian Reform Alliance Party (or was it Conservative Reform Alliance party?) At any rate, once they realized that the name spelled CRAP, they put on their thinking caps like good little conservatives and just called themselves The Conservative Party.

__________________
You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey
And I never saw someone say that before
You held my hand and we walked home the long way
You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr

http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

Charlatan

What do you guys think? If there is an election what do you see as the outcome?

My prediction: about the same, give or take a few seats.

Unless Ignatieff does something radically different from what he has been doing so far, he will pick up a few extra seats but not enough to bounce the Conservative minority.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

james t kirk

Could go either way.

I don't really see a need for an election - just a waste of money, however, I am fairly sick of Harper because I feel that he has abandonned Central Canada. My opinion of him is that he is the kind of guy who figures that if it is not black goo that you dig out of the ground in Alberta, then he's not interested.

Case in point Nortel. Now, everyone knows that it was a hugely fucked up company mgt. wise, however, at the end of the day, they were the biggest single R n D company in Canada by far. They could have been salvaged if a determined effort was made. Harper did nothing and let it be parted out and sold off in bits to foreign companies. Gone forever. thousands of Engineers and Scientists laid off. Talent lost.

Now, ask yourself, if that was Syncrude - would Harper have done the same thing?

Never in a million years.

He reminds me of Diefenbaker and the Avro Arrow.

I can't stand his short sightedness.

Baraka_Guru

I agree, this could go either way.

This would be an election with unusual circumstances:

• Following two Tory minority governments that, combined, are by far the longest-running minority governments in Canadian history.
• Coming at what appears to be the tail end of an unconventional global economic crisis and the beginning of a long recovery.
• Looking south of the border, the U.S. turned from years of being very conservative to being very liberal.
• Harper has had to be very cautious in his governance in order to maintain power--and for a long time at that. This can be seen as being either ineffectual or prudent.

I think whoever can sell their future vision of Canada best will win.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Charlatan

This is what I was thinking as well. It's one thing to use stimulus money to build and repair infrastructure, it is another to invest in the future of people.

We need to drill more than just oil... we also need to tap the minds of our people.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

james t kirk

As long as Quebec keeps voting for the BQ, a minority gov't is all you're going to see.

Alberta and Saskatchewan will be solidly conservative (as always - do they know anything else?)

Ontario will be liberal with a smattering of Conservative and NDP.

BC - Liberal, Ndp, Conservative.


In order to win, either party has to somehow convince Quebec to vote for them. Good luck on that front. The Quebecers enjoy voting for a usless party naively thinking that it will somehow be good for them (or to enjoy being the spoiler yet again)

In either case, we're in for another minority, the only questin is who?

Sticky

While I have no interest in having an election I am interested in the politics.
This stuff is much more exciting from a spectator point of view now that there are minority governments.

If it is going to happen, I am looking forward to seeing how the government will fall.

I think that Ignatief made a slight mistake announcing this (his withdrawl of support). What this means is that the conservatives can now pick the issue that they want to be brought down by.

__________________
Sticky The Stickman

CandleInTheDark

People still believe this? The rising of the West in population and economic power will, and partially has, toppled the Upper/Lower Canada oligarchy. Though it may continue to be a battle ground province, Quebec has shown that it will vote BQ on a whim (last election). The Province does not want to participate with the rest of the country, but its power to hold the rest of us hostage is waning. The rest of the country can produce a majority for either the Tories or the Liberals; every other region except for Alberta is relatively competitive for both parties. Ontario is not a Conservative free zone.

__________________
Where there is doubt there is freedom.

percy

If an election will end the absolutely stupid and waste of time weekly motion of non-confidence votes, I am all for it. Good Lord, do these freaking people have nothing better to do than call non-confidence motions every week?

I think it is time to get all these ego driven, power hungry megalomaniacs, Iggy what ever the fuck his name is, Harper and Layton into a room and say, "Go to the private sector. None of you have a clue. You individually and collectively are all fuck ups, and are our only choices because real people with real skills, don't want your jobs.!!"