Strange Famous

i am assuming that, barring some kind of disaster, Obama is the democrat candidate.

Is there anyone in America who feels that McCain could win a general election?

From outside, the rest of the world just see's how despised Bush is internationally (some UK papers printed front pages all in black when he won the last election!) - but I dont know how the party is viewed domestically. McCain seems like a genuine moralist to me- and is an old man, the worst possible candidate to send against a young, bright, energetic candidate who believe in nothing but realpolitik and says the right things all the time.

Is their any roadmap to the Republicans not being swept off the map in the next election?

__________________
"Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate,
for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing
hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain
without being uncovered."

The Gospel of Thomas

Willravel

Bush won in 2004. After that happened, it's all up in the air. There are a lot of deeply stupid people here.

If McCain wins, I'm crashing on your couch for 8 years. We can try to fix labour or something.

Xazy

I think race will be an issue. Not one spoken or one that should be in the media but one that people will just make due to bias. I think that Wright will make a few more speechs and no matter what says or wants he can not remove himself from Wright in a lot of peoples mind (mine included).

On top of that experience is on McCain side over Obama, and it is still Republican vs Democrat different political views. So can he win, I would say he has probably a much better chance then Obama.

RetroGunslinger

This all really depends on the "Question for Atheists" thread, as we're going to have to decide whether or not there's a god first.

__________________
It's a rare pleasure in this world to get your mind fucked. Usually it's just foreplay.

M.B. Keene

Seaver

You're right, a lot of deeply stupid elitists who are out of touch with the majority of America.

__________________
"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas

dc_dux

Most Americans trust the Democrats (the stupid elitists?) to do a better job on every important issue, with the possible exception of terrorism:

Here is one recent poll:

Most Americans trust Obama over McCain on every important issue, with the exception of terrorism:

Polling Report

But because of our quirky electoral vote process, where 12 states could be considered in play and swing the election one way or the other....anything is possible.

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

SecretMethod70

I'm OK with being out of touch if that means I'm out of touch with the majority of a country where people's understanding of science is on par with Turkey as opposed to the rest of the Western world.

Anyway, McCain definitely has a chance, though I don't think it's true at all that he has a better chance than Obama. It's close, but based on how overwhelmingly strong the Democrats are right now - and in places where they shouldn't be at all - it may well be enough to make up for the bigot vote.

And I'm not really sure where McCain's "experience" is supposed to gain him any points. If he has so much experience, then there's really absolutely no excuse for him to be making mistakes like confusing Sunni and Shia. Either he's too old and his mental faculties are unreliable, or he's simply ignorant of the issues he should be knowledgable of.

__________________
Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Tully Mars

Can they win? Sure. Expect swift boaters on steroids. Will they win? Fuck I hope not. But after 2004 I'll never misunderestimate the stupidity of the average US voter. John Stewart had a great (or depressing depending on your point of view) clip after the West Va. primary. Basically some interviews from West Va. voters on why they voted for Hillary. Really has to be seen to be believed.

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

SecretMethod70

Considering the level of racist vandalism this presidential campaign has seen, I have no trouble believing it.

Even in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, where I'd like to think we're far beyond the racism of rural Appalachia, the local Democratic HQ was vandalized with "nigger" written on the windows. It should be noted that not only did the HQ have Obama signs in the window, but the local congressional candidate is also of mixed heritage.

__________________
Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Willravel

49% isn't a majority, it's about half.

The sad thing is being called elitist for doing my homework before voting. All the information about BS links between Iraq and 9/11 was there in 2004. All the information about there being no WMDs was there in 2004. All the evidence about the 2000 election was there in 2004. It was even all on TFP. You can go back into the history and see it.

mixedmedia

uh, no.

well, maybe

fuck those people

__________________
Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce

Tully Mars

Here it is, I think?


<embed FlashVars='videoId=168561' src='http://www.thedailyshow.com/sitewide/video_player/view/default/swf.jhtml' quality='high' bgcolor='#cccccc' width='332' height='316' name='comedy_central_player' align='middle' allowScriptAccess='always' allownetworking='external' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed>

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

boatin

Fascinating that no one in the media (in that clip, or anywhere I saw) will say: race was an issue in WV. We've gotten to the point where we can't speculate in factual terms. It's insane... and therefore of course McCain has a shot to win. As others have said, it's demonstrable that anything can happen.

RetroGunslinger

I saw that the other day and nearly shot myself right then and there. Problem was, I had no gun.

__________________
It's a rare pleasure in this world to get your mind fucked. Usually it's just foreplay.

M.B. Keene

Ustwo

It would require monumental gross incompetence on the part of the Democrat party to lose this.

If the Democrats lose this election, they really need to just stop trying.

Based on their past presidential election track records, I'd give it a 50-50 chance.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Willravel

Baraka_Guru

Why McCain could win the White House

I read this and I thought: Wow, there are that many factors? Could these really happen? There are 10 reasons McCain could be the next president?

But I'm not that well versed in American politics.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

dc_dux

If I were advising Republicans (why would I do that?), I would suggest that relying on Democratic incompetence is an incompetent plan in and of itself.

Waiting for the Democrats to fumble the ball is a losing strategy for Republicans. Their problem is their brand image.....culturally conservative, belligerent/aggressive pro-war foreign policy, big oil/anti-environment, and tax cuts for the wealthiest.

That brand is no longer attracting Independents and you cant win at the Congressional or Presidential level without Independents.

added:
In addition to Independents, the future of both parties is in the hands of the younger voters.

In a recent survey of 18-29 yr olds, the opinions that Democrats wll do a better job than Republicans is even more pronounced than in the general voters survey I posted above.

To my Republican friends and colleagues ...keep relying on that tired old GOP brand for a comeback.

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

pan6467

I think they can. I think that Operation Chaos went exactly as planned. I think that this press everyone complains is leftist.... helped and I think the Dems are in serious trouble come Nov.

Operation Chaos wasn't to get Hilary votes it was to scare Dem voters into voting for Obama. Make your enemies believe you want the one you are most scare of to win so that when the time comes the truly weaker one gets the win.

I think the press anointing Obama and covering up, whitewashing, shoo shooing serious gaffes and issues about and from him allowed him to win, however.... the GOP will capitalize.

I think this will not be pretty and in all honesty this may come down to who wanted to lose more.... not win.

I still truly believe that whoever wins will be in for serious decisions and if some issues are not taken care of immediately.... they'll most definitely lose seats in congress for their party in '10 and not be re-elected. I also believe some wrong moves and a serious gaffe and it could very easily ear this country apart.

However, if they make the right moves, get this country going again.... we could be looking at a long term party control in the government.

It's going to be bumpy and extremely messy.

__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

reconmike

I find it extremely humorous that the Democrats think that anyone who votes Republician is a fucking idiot. They should look at their own base a bit.

Example, Marion Barry, had a whole districts of Einsteins vote him back into office after his drug conviction.
These will be the same people who will overwhelmingly vote for Obama.

How about Beirut, I mean Newark NJ they will vote probably 90% for Obama,
that's a city full of Rhode scholars.

It it going to be a close race, I can only hope that if Obama wins and he needs to send troops somewhere all the Obama voters line up to go fight for the man they put in office.
But I highly doubt that will happen because those idiots are the protected, with only the sense of what they are entitled to.

__________________
Where is Darwin when ya need him?

dc_dux

pan....so this is your latest conspiracy theory of the month? First it was the Republican leadership keeping the nomination away from McCain...then it was the Clintons planned the Wright incident as part of their strategy to steal the campaign away from the populist Obama....and now its Operation Chaos really being about scaring Democrats into voting for Obama so they can run against him...LOL.

Yep....the GOP sure capitalized on Obama in those 3 recent special elections for open seats in very Republican districts in IL, LA, MS!

Seats that Republicans won by around 70% over the last 8-10 election cycles.

The Republican candidates (and the NRCC) ran ads trying to tie the Democratic candidates to Obama and Wright.....

... and the Democratic candidates won these seats for the first time in more than 15 years.

Go figure.

Tom Davis, Republican Congressman from Virginia, has it right when he said:

"Republican members of Congress understand that the Republican brand is in the trash can....if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf."

Keep ignoring him, guys!

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

ratbastid

My father has only ever voted non-Republican when he voted for Ross Perot.

He's STRONGLY for Obama. He's sick and tired of what the neocons have done to his party, and he thinks McCain is more of the same, tainted by his too-moderate positions of the past that he's flopped away from in this campaign cycle.

It's anecdotal, but I'm hearing it a lot. I think Independents are going to come out strong for Obama, and I think the moderate edge of Republicans are going to be heavily swayed. Those who are disgusted with what Bush did to the GOP are going to see Obama as an attractive option. They wouldn't feel that way about Hillary, but they do about Obama.

EDIT: I know what some of you will say: "If he thought four-years-ago-McCain was too moderate, he must be deluded to like Obama!" Fact is, there are a lot of policy issues he disagrees completely with Obama on. But he believes Obama is the man to bring fundamental change to Washington, and that's more important to him than policy details.

Tully Mars

Ditto

Gez, are we related? Oh, wait your dad voted for Perot? Never mind.

My Dad for the first time voted Dem in 2004. He did so because he said the neocons were destroying the country he loved. Lately in speaking with him I think he was leaning to McCain. However the other day he said "McCain's changed over the last year. He's starting to sound like Hillary- say anything you think will get you more votes. He should be forced to stop calling this bus the straight talk express."

Will he vote for Obama? I'm highly doubtful, but?

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

william

Operation Chaos was/is a joke. The majority that switched affiliations voted for Obama. Not what O.C. was for - they want Clinton/McCain in the general election.

FoolThemAll

First host's "shut the fuck up", now this... did World's King take over moderator duties or something?

Not that flaming/trolling is a deal-breaker for me, but I must've missed some policy change.

__________________
I wonder if we're stuck in Rome.

Willravel

I explained why. If you disagree, that's fine.

Ustwo

You are right, there are a lot of stupid people here.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

SecretMethod70

I think you may have misunderstood what will was saying. He wasn't saying there are a lot of deeply stupid people on TFP, he was saying there are a lot of deeply stupid people in the United States. (Keep in mind that he's responding to Strange Famous, who is not from the US.) Whether or not his statement is true, it's not flaming anyone here.

__________________
Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Tully Mars

At the risk of trolling...

Trust me there's a lot of morons the world over.

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

host

Why is that? What are the shortcomings you perceive of the republican alternative to the democratic nominee?

loquitur

Although I think McCain could win, I also think it's highly unlikely. He is probably the best candidate the Republicans could have put forward this year, but I just can't see how the country in its current mood will put a Republican in the White House. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it. I also don't think there are enough racists out there to change that.

And it has nothing to do with stupidity. Plenty of stuff that gets thrown around here strikes me as deeply stupid (either delusional or ignorant or otherwise fallacious). People need to get past this notion that political disagreement is a sign of stupidity. People don't disagree because one of them is stupid; they disagree because they are different people and see things differently.

TheNasty

/thread

FoolThemAll

I understood that he was linking stupidity with voting for Bush. A statement broad enough to encompass more than a few TFPers. If he meant something more narrow, he should have said something more narrow.

Yes, thank you for explaining your flame.

__________________
I wonder if we're stuck in Rome.

Ustwo

He was flaming people who voted for Bush, and there are some of us here in the peoples republic of TFP.

Its rather clear as day. According to will Bush won in 2004 because people are stupid, by default that means if you voted for Bush you are stupid.

Perhaps will can show me how I am reading this wrong.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

sapiens

That's the way I read it.

FoolThemAll

You make a deeply stupid assumption: that if multiple people "do their homework" and discover all that information you list, those people will automatically come to the same conclusion.

Facts alone do not a decision make. For anyone.

__________________
I wonder if we're stuck in Rome.

guy44

Well, as far as the OP goes, no I do not foresee a Republican victory for the Presidency. Obama has huge advantages in fundraising, voter ID, voter dissatisfaction with the President, etc. It isn't impossible for McCain to win, just very, very hard. In addition, given a variety of factors (large numbers of GOP retirements, the fact that more Republicans happen to be defending Senate seats this year than Democrats, the last 7+ years) it seems very likely that the Democrats will gain between 10-25 House seats and 4-9 Senate seats.

Of course, anything is possible. There's a lot of time between now and November, and actual events (a terrorist attack, for example) can change everything. But I could probably list dozens of reasons why the Democrats are likely to do well this year, and very few why the GOP may succeed.

On the one hand, I agree that whoever wins the Presidency is in for a very bumpy ride. The country is in terrible straits, from the economy to our foreign policy, and it's going to be incredibly tough to clean up the current mess.

On the other hand, even though I won't put down money on the presidential race (it's very, very illegal) I would theoretically place a lot on Obama. Frankly, I think you are wearing rose-tinted glasses even larger than the ones I was wearing in 2004. Then again, I was wrong then - but I still pretty sure Obama's going to win, and he's going to have solid majorities in both houses of the legislature.

__________________
"You have reached Ritual Sacrifice. For goats press one, or say 'goats.'"

Willravel

So you're telling me that Republicans knowingly voted for someone who would either lie to go to war or who was too stupid to look past his ignorant biases which resulted in us going to war? That's just some of the information I'm referring to.

If you feel badly for voting for Bush, then good. I only wish more people felt this way.

loquitur

Will, it's also possible that people thought Kerry was such a disaster area that Bush was the lesser of two evils. Or that the tradeoffs involved favored Bush. Or that the "facts" you rely on aren't really facts but only your spin. There's lots of reasons other than stupidity for people to have made the decisions they did.

Personally, I don't understand why anyone would take Ralph Nader seriously, much less vote for him, yet I know plenty of perfectly nice, sane, intelligent, respectable people who did just that. Takes all types, my friend.

edwhit

That's the way I see things.

I didn't want Bush to win, but Kerry provided nothing either.

I tend to vote more conservative than most people in the room and I see no solid options this year. From my view, there's McCain who is a rep but has quite the history of voting dem. There's Hillary who seems to push socialism with health care plans that I would never choose and there is Obama. He's about change. I'm not positive he knows what he wants to change or how he's going to do it but he's winning an election based on the fact the America wants it. Who needs details when you have rhetoric?

I don't care what color his skin is or how well he claims he understands me and isn't that different than me (*cough* Bullshit *cough*) I still want to know how he'll stand on issues before voting for him. I want to know what choices he'll make. I don't think Clinton is a great choice at all. I've despised her for years in fact, but at least I know what I'm getting with her.

Perhaps they'll both get shot before the election and someone competent will rise to the challenge!

...still torn over my terrible options...