Tully Mars

Today primaries are being held in North Carolina and Indiana.

Any one care to predict the out come and what effect it will have on the nomination?

I think Obama takes N.C. by just over 5% and I think Clinton cleans his clock in Ind. by nearly 10%. And I think this means the whole thing goes to the convention.

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ottopilot

That's a fair prediction. I think Clinton will spin a 5% loss in N.C. to sound like they did much better than was expected. I see Hillary going kicking and screaming all the way.

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ratbastid

I know the polls don't bear it out--and I may be operating in an echo chamber here--but MAN does a 5% win for Obama not reflect what I'm hearing on the street here in NC. Everyone I know is passionately for him. ALL the black people I know are voting for him no matter what. My immediate crowd of generally young white friends is for him. I don't know anybody who's a Hillary supporter. If we went just by yard signs, Obama would win 3 to 1.

For SURE Hillary will spin whatever happens as a massive victory. She's already talking about how far she came from behind in Indiana, despite having been ahead or even in every single poll ever taken there. If Obama does trounce her in NC, she'll write us off as another small boutique state that doesn't matter.

There was no line at all at my polling place at 7:25 this morning. And I voted on an electronic machine for the first time in my career as a citizen--a non-Diebold machine (I asked) with a voter-verified papertrail device built into it. Pretty cool.

dc_dux

I'm predicting Obama by 7-10 in NC...

...and Clinton by less than 5 in IN. I would not be shocked if Obama wins IN, particularly if there is a much stronger than expected turnout in Gary and Indy (incl. upscale Marion).

I think polls and pundits are undercounting new registrations and first time voters in both states...these are probably 2:1 for Obama.

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Tully Mars

I keep hearing and reading that Obama needs to be ahead in the exit polls by like 6 or 7 just to break even. Do you think thats true and if so why?

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Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

ratbastid

I haven't heard that.

Lasereth

I voted last week in NC. I agree with ratbastid, everybody I know is voting Obama here. But you guys are right, Hillary will transform it into false momentum like she's been doing since January.

Can someone explain something very simple to me: if Hillary wins every remaining state 65-35 against Obama, she will still lose the delegate count, even with her superdelegates. So why is she still in the race? She can't win the remaining states 65-35, so why waste her time and money?

ratbastid

Well, that's not really fair, though. Because it's very unlikely Obama will hit the magic number of 2024 just on elected delegates. It's going to come down to the superdelegates, where Clinton's support has been very very strong for years, though it's obviously fallen off dramatically since Super Tuesday.

She's basically hoping that her claim (which she has retracted, then claimed again) that Obama is unelectable, or at least the weaker candidate against McCain, will scare Supers into voting for her at the convention. That hasn't been working, and her insistence on doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results has many people questioning her sanity.

Want to hear surreal, this morning I heard the following words uttered on my local "we play everything" station: "This is former president Bill Clinton, and you're listening to the Wicker Show on 98.7 Simon!" It's official. The world has lost its mind.

Derwood

the reason that "everyone you know" is voting for Obama is for the reason you said: the people you know are young/white or are black. i guess you don't hang out with many older whites or soccer moms

Willravel

It'd sure be nice if this whole thing was over. I'm ready to start focusing on McCain.

ratbastid

It's true. I don't. Hence the "and I may be operating in an echo chamber here" in my first post on this thread. There's absolutely nothing scientific about my perception here, I completely admit. Still, from my perception, a mere 5% win is hard to imagine.

MuadDib

I agree with the end-results here, but I think you're over shooting on both counts. I say NC to Barak by less than 5 and IN to Clinton 5-9.

By the way, does anyone know what time (EST) their respective polls close?

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SecretMethod70

Clinton wins IN by under 10, but I'm not sure how much under. Between 5 and 9 is probably a good guess. (I had a dream last night - perhaps nightmare is a more accurate term - that Clinton won IN with 75% of the vote.)

Obama wins NC by more than 5, but I'm not sure how much more. Between 5 and 9 is probably a good guess.

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scout

The polls here in Indiana close at 6 pm EDT, sorry I have no idea what time they close in North Carolina.

robot_parade

/me voted for Obama this morning in NC - no lines, but we had a long, well-advertised early voting period.

Willravel

Thanks for voting!

samcol

DAMN! The liqour stores are still closed. I voted for Ron Paul at an almost empty precinct in Indiana. I'm guessing Indiana is for Hillary. SCREW YOU OPERATION CHAOS AND YOUR TRAITOR CONSERVATIVES.

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dc_dux

NC - Obama running away with it....12+
NC - too close to call.....early exit polls show very light turnout in rural IN, which hurts Clinton....final vote could be anywhere from Clinton by 4-5% or Obama by 1%.

__________________
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loquitur

be very very careful about believing exit polls, my friend...........

dc_dux

Its knowing a little bit how to read final pre-election polls and exit polls, my friend....granted it still involves assumptions and a bit of guesswork.

It looks like a 15+ point win for Obama in NC and within 4 points in IN.

The result...with NC having more delegates than IN, it means a significant increase in Obama's delegate lead (as well as in the total popular vote lead).

Clinton had to win big in IN....and come much closer (if not win) in NC.

Its all but over.

__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
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samcol

What about super delegates?

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dc_dux

With these results, Clinrton has not given the super delegates a reason to swing her way. In increasing numbers over the last few weeks, they have been coming out for Obama...this was all that was needed to pretty much seal it.

All that is left for her is the "nuclear option"....using her slim majority on the DNC rules committee to get the Mich and Fla votes included....in the numbers from the "uncertified" primaries in those states...rather than in a compromise where the MI and FL delegates would be split.

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ratbastid

At this point, a superdelegate swing to Clinton would be suicide.

Obama by 14! Go NC!

I like how Hil has claimed Indiana even though CNN is calling it "too close to call". I'll bet she thought Gore won Florida before she went to bed that night, too.

Lasereth

Drudge is saying 51/49 in indiana right now with 10% votes still uncounted. 2 hours ago it was 60/40.......hmm.......might I wake up to obama winning both states?

SecretMethod70

Lake County has started reporting, and they had massive turnout which swung heavily for Obama. It looks like he may likely pull off a win.

And MSNBC is reporting that Clinton has cancelled all appearances for tomorrow.

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Le temps détruit tout

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ratbastid

Ooh! Perhaps saving her voice for a concession phone call?

Willravel

I keep thinking to myself... Obama/Edwards '08

SecretMethod70

Obama/Richardson please.

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Willravel

I thought that at first, but I want a more decisive win this time so cheating is impossible. Richardson won't bring nearly as many votes as Edwards.

dc_dux

Obama will need to make some show of appeasing Clinton voters.

Obama and a Hillary surrogate - Gov Rendell (PA) or Gov Strickland (OH), both battleground states.

__________________
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~ Voltaire

SecretMethod70

I don't know...gun-friendly Richardson as the first Hispanic VP?

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

ottopilot

Because of elitist perceptions, an Obama/Edwards ticket may cause a backlash pushing moderates and independents to vote for McCain. Richardson would be a safer bet. we'll see what Hillary does to push for VP.

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ratbastid

Well, here's the real question, I think: Will McCain run a more honorable campaign than Hillary has?

Obama has suffered at the hands of some dirty personal stuff in the last month, and the main thing that got tarnished was his appearance of being above the fray. He let himself get pulled down into the mud with Hillary--who, frankly, takes to mud like a pig. McCain has promised a respectful contest, which is certainly NOT what Hillary is running. The question for me is, if McCain actually RUNS a respectful contest, will Obama be able to recapture the magic he had back before the run-up to PA? If he can, he doesn't need to worry about losing independents, they'll flock to him like they did after Iowa.

Hillary's the main one crying "elite". The irony of that is shocking, considering the discrepancies between the two candidate's tax returns. McCain has only been echoing that, not leading the way with it. And now all economists are "elite" too. Pretty much if Hillary disagrees with you, you're "elite" and "out of touch". But once she's gone from the campaign, I expect this "elite" nonsense to fade into the background.

loquitur

ratbastid, my sense is that it will make no diff what kind of race McCain runs. First of all, he's going to lose no matter what. Second of all, I'll wager that any criticism he makes of Obama of any kind (and yes, I think BHO will be the Dem nominee) will be greeted with calls of "racism." It won't matter that McCain has no hint of racism in his background. That being said, I think McCain will run a pretty clean campaign as these things go; no campaign can ever be clean totally. If he's smart, he'll have Colin Powell as his running mate. Still won't help, though. He's going to lose.

ottopilot

ratbastid, I think McCain will run mostly above-board. I also tend to agree with loquitur that (based on what we know now and no surprises) Obama will win the presidency no matter what McCain says or does. McCain's VP choice may have a significant impact on voters, but I don't think it will be enough. Sort of a Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford post-Nixon scenario (IMHO).

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ratbastid

Not likely. Powell has been very clear that while he might be interested in some sort of public service position, elected political office isn't something he's interested in. Besides, from everything he's saying lately, he supports .

Now, if Obama can talk him into it, imagine an Obama/Powell ticket. That would be damn near unstoppable. Plus, just for pan's sake, anybody who disagrees with them is DOUBLE racist!

Willravel

Obama/Powell juggernaut. Sounds interesting.

telekinetic

Can somebody who knows more about this sort of thing or who has found a a reliable report not based on exit polls summarize factually where we stand after yesterday?

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filtherton

I think McCain will run a clean campaign, and he will cry crocodile tears when various privately support groups with vaguely patriotic names drag Obama's name through the mud.

Strange Famous

Clinton is such a disaster for the Democrat party.

It has nothing to do with integrity, or policy - simply she is smug and has no charisma. When you listen to her talk you know she could never win a general election.

I think the people who control the final vote need to lean on her pretty hard to pull out now.

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