SirSeymour

So, if you are a Dem what do you do with Florida and Michigan at this point?

Obviously no one anticipated that the race would be this close at this point and that the potential of not seating the delegates would cause a crisis when that decision was made. Just as obviously the states of Florida and Michigan thought the DNC was full of hot air when they threatened to no seat the delegates if these two states broke the rules they had already agreed to.

So what do you do at this point if you are the DNC?

Stick to your guns and shut these two states out of the convention?
Split the delegates down the middle and call it good?
Go with the results of the first election even though Obama was not even on the ballot in one of these states?
Do over? And if so, who pays?

As for myself, I would be very tempted to say tough. They knew the rules when they decided to break them. Shoot...they approved the rules. They knew what the waiting punishment was for breaking the rules and did it anyway when 48 other states stuck to them. To back off now and allow for the delegates to be seated is to say that there is no punishment for breaking the rules and that the DNC has no teeth.

What is the realistic fallout from this course? Not much, I don't think. Will it change the way the two states vote in the general election? Maybe in the case of Florida (which is not a small deal, I grant you) but I doubt it matters much to Michigan. It is going to go Democrat regardless I think. Florida might be borderline but I am thinking it goes GOP regardless as well. However, a show of integrity by the DNC might go a long way in other places.

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loquitur

It's a political call by the DNC. It's not governed by statute, so it's not a question of following the law. If the DNC thinks not seating FL and MI delegations will hurt the party's chances in Nov, it should figure out a way to seat them that will be fair to both candidates - whether that's a do-over, or a caucus, or recognizing the January vote, I don't know. But do you really think people in FL or MI will change their votes if some delegate doesnt' get to go to the national party convention?

Willravel

Florida should lose an election after 2000. Or maybe have to wear dunce caps.

In all seriousness, the DNC basically has free reign in this issue. If they wanted to skip California, Texas and Ohio, they could. Will it effect the outcome? I'm not sure. I've not seen any polling done in either state. I suspect Florida would be Obama friendly, Michigan could go either way.

dc_dux

The idea of a re-vote through mail ballots is gaining traction and its seems reasonable to me. The voters in those states should not be disenfranchised by the acts of the state Dem party.

The campaigns would front the cost and ultimately bill back the state parties. There would be no cost to the taxpayers.

Hilary is still claiming that she is better positioned than Obama to beat McCain in the four states - FL, MI, OH, PA - three of which are needed for an electoral vote victory. The fact that Obama has not won a large industrial state gives her some credibility.

FL, with the large senior pop (Clinton's base) would be hard for Obama and the same goes with MI, with its large blue collar base. These groups have not been a large part of the Obama coalition.

But then again, both should be able to beat McCain on economic issues.

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SecretMethod70

Well, it appears Florida isn't interested in a re-vote. In which case, I say fuck 'em. They knew the rules, they agreed to the rules, and then they broke the rules. I'd be fine with a mail-in re-vote (paid for by the state parties and donors), but since they don't want that then I guess they don't get anything. As for what the DNC should do, the best way to give them nothing while still saving some face politically is to split their delegates in half between Obama and Clinton. They're seated, but have little impact on the delegate counts.

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loquitur

SM, the FL House delegation isn't who decides these things. They're superdelegates, yes, but they don't decide for FL.

QuasiMondo

I think that point somehow avoids them. There is such a thing as consequences, something the folks in Florida and Michigan's legislature should've considered.

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The_Jazz

Apparently the conversations going on involve the state parties, the national party as well as both candidates. No one wants to disenfranchise two important states, but it's the state parties to blame for this, not the national one (which I realize everyone pretty much agrees with). Any deal needs to have the endorsement of both Obama and Clinton, though.

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SirSeymour

Is a deal truly necessary though? I mean, what happens if the delegates from these two states are not seated?

At this point, I don't see a re-vote in either state making a big difference in the delegate count and I don't see either Obama or Clinton getting enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.

The only real loser (other than the grass roots voters, of course) is the DNC. Doesn't any deal at this point that allows for the seating of the delegates negate the DNC's authority in future nomination proceedings?

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ubertuber

What happens is that those two states (both swing, though Florida more reknowned) go republican in November. Then whoever the Dem nominee is can start that much farther behind.

I don't think that ignoring them all together is going to enchant the swing/independent voters in those two states.

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SirSeymour

See, I just can't fathom anyone but hard core Dems caring if the party shuts these two state's delegates out of the convention and those are the ones who you can count on to vote Dem in November. They might be upset about it but not upset about enough to cross party lines.

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Charlatan

I see no real need to have another vote... they had their shot and didn't follow the rules.

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pan6467

Without Fla. and Michigan a candidate will not win the election.

I believe it was a GOP controlled state congress in Fla. that set the primary date knowing the Dems would penalize the state.

I don't think charging the states MILLIONS of their citizens tax dollars to set up new elections will win the Dems any votes.

I don't think ignoring them will win any votes.

I don't think the DNC handled the situation correctly and if I were a conspiracist... I would say it was almost as if the DNC truly didn't want to carry those states come Nov. OR they believed the "anti Bush/GOP" votes in Nov. would outweigh those votes lost in the punishment.

Hilary did make a good move in Michigan in making sure she was on the ballot there. So she can in Nov go in and say that she at least tried.

It's all very interesting and come Nov. I have a feeling this may be what wins/loses the election, it will definitely factor itself in at the very least.

It's going to be a very fun year to watch the candidates jockeying and destroying each other, maybe it'll take the focus off of millions losing their homes, jobs, and gas prices reaching $5 a gallon.

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ottopilot

Big DNC doners in Florida have begun demanding their contributions refunded. Al Sharpton and friends are ratcheting up a fight claiming disenfranchisement. It's getting interesting.

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SirSeymour

I would love to know how they can claim disenfranchisement. We run a representative form of government in this country and the duly elected representatives of the people set the date for the primary in both states knowing full well the rules and the consequences for breaking those rules. Perhaps the people of these two states should be a bit more careful when electing state officials in the future.

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flstf

Unless I misunderstand him, Sharpton is complaining that if the election results are allowed then many voters will be disenfranchised because they were told the election would not count and therefore did not vote. I believe he wants the vote results to not count or barring that have a new election.

ottopilot

That's it!

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guy44

Split the delegates from Michigan and Florida 50-50 between Clinton and Obama. This way, they can participate in the convention and the rest of the process and neither side can bitch that the other won their delegates unfairly.

Simple, clean, done and over with.

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Redlemon

Look at all the states that won't have a say in who the Republican candidate will be. I don't see them complaining. Some states always get left out of the decision process - in this case, Florida and Michigan self-selected themselves out of the process.

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