Thats what I want.

Thanks for that Ratbastid.

I think this is the first time we've ever had reportage of an election speech on TFP.

You know what was even crazier? Coming home and finding articles on the wire quoting the speech I just heard. Pretty neat.

In today's NY Sun:There are going to be a lot of disappointed activists if Obama is elected. He's a sane leftie, he seems to have sane people around him with sane ideas, and they won't like it.

Obama can only bowl a 37, clearly not the best choice to represent redneck america.

loquitor..... I am curious why you feel the need to wage an ongoing campaign to question the intelligence of Obama supporters:

"I am troubled by this messianic aura many people seem to perceive around Obama."

"My question for all the people who think Obama is the messiah is this:..... Messianism isn't rational."

"I just found a lot of the worship stuff to be creepy."

"Those fainting women at the rallies was sort of a giveaway to me"

Guess what....The Obama supporters I know personally or have met through common interest in the campaign are rational, thinking, concerned voters who agree with most (not all) of Obama's policy positions and also have reasonable expectations and perhaps optimistic hopes that Obama just might be the type of leader than can bring people together....something this country desperately needs.

One thing I particular like about Obama is that he has not surrounded himself with policy advisers with a rigid ideological agenda.

If you want to discuss Obama's policy positions...that makes sense. People can have honest disagreements.

When you repeatedly cast disparaging remarks about people you dont know....IMO, it says more about your obsession with Obama supporters than it does about them.

Who are the people who can "be brought together"? On the "other side", there are those who cannot say "left", without putting the word "extreme" or "liberal" in front of it, those who believe "liberal" is a dirty word, and those who cannot moderate their objection to a woman's right to choose whether or not to terminate her pregnancy. Mostly, but not always, the same people are anti-abortion and anti-liberal.

As far as I can see, mostly everyone else are already united, so what am I
missing, dc_dux?

The vast silent majority in, or close to, the middle in their political leanings.... mostly Independents and the left-center Ds and right-center Rs who are pragmatic and see the value of compromise and consensus building as opposed to maintaining a rigid ideology.... and the millions of new voters, including young voters and black voters engaging in the political process for the first time as a result of Obama's candidacy.

to answer the original question:

Is Obama the perfect candidate? no

Is Obama by far the best candidate i've had the opportunity to vote for? yes

None of the anti choice, anti "extreme liberal", anti "democrat" party, are going to be reached by Obama's message of "unity". It doesn't move me, because I am aware that it is meaningless.

Gotta disagree, dux. I'm saying that the people who DON'T look at Obama as a politician who is "pro abortion", "even in the third trimester", a democrat -[ic] candidate of the "extreme left", are ALREADY pretty much together. They don't NEED a "uniter".

The rest are unreachable... Obama actually drives them further away from the rest of us. They are the ones who have held power since 2001, dux. You see how the senate and house republicans operate. They vote as a block. They are a reflection of the people who vote for them.

I think you know what I think of McCain. With that, I believe McCain is much more potentially a candidate to bring people together, than Obama is. No one who is opposed to Obama for the reasons I stated, is coming "over to him".

Go spend an hour over at www.townhall.com . Read about these guys, listen to their shows on the radio or read their show transcripts:
http://www.srnonline.com/talk/index.shtml

Obama is not going to be bringing them, or their listeners, together with the rest of us. If you watched any of the republican debates, I know you know this. It's half the actual voters in the country, dux.

townhall.com? seriously?

host...I agree the townhall.com, malkin, powerline, limbaugh/hannity crowd are unreachable. I would guess thats maybe 20-30% of the electorate

What I think Obama can do is bring the rest - Independents and even some Main Street Republicans (who have been marginalized in their party)- closer together with moderate and left-leaning Democrats, at least on some issues......because I think he will take a more pragmatic and less ideological approach to governing. The key will be if the far left Dems are willing to give-and-take a little themselves.

side note: Its interesting that of the 29 Repubs in the House not running for reelection this year, nearly half are Main Street Repubs in what are basically "independent-leaning" districts. The RNC is searching for real "conservative" candidates to replace them, bringing those districts in to play even more than they have been in recent years.....a very good chance of Dems winning some of those races.

He's been labeled "pro abortion" and "most liberal member of the US Senate", just like Kerry was, and he's from the north, just like Kerry, He has the same potential to draw in the vote of the rest of the country as Kerry did, or maybe less. I don't know what you see that I am failing to see. The Democrats keep fielding candidates that don't draw. The people who win the presidency are all white males who reside in the southern states or Cal....why would that translate into Obama "bringing people together"? IMO, he'll be lucky to win the general election, and it will only be a backlash vote against Bush's economy.

edit: I visited mainstreetrepublicans, and I looked at their issues. There is no mention of "pro choice", thus, maybe three or four of them have the potential to come together with Obama.

I think you are discounting the millions of potential new voters that have registered as a result of Obama's campaign, particularly two groups - young and college educated (and multi-racial) and blacks.

And discounting the upscale (upper middle/upper income) suburban Independents (soccer moms et al) a large majority of which voted Repub the last few times are leaning to Obama this go-round (evident in part by their participation in open Dem primaries).

All potentially part of a new (or renewed) coalition.

The electoral map is changing as well....particularly the southwest. Formerly red states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada are more purple now.

i also think you underestimate just how tired a large chunk of the electorate are of Southern White Males running Washington

I remember discussing during the '04 election cycle the fact that the only chance Democrats have is to have a southern gentleman at the head of the ticket. This is a perfect chance to break that cycle and I'm looking forward to it.

I don't think Obama is a perfect candidate, I don't think such a person exists. What I do think, and some of you may remember me stating months ago that I didn't see myself casting a vote for president in 2008, is that Obama is a sensible, level-headed man who understands that new ways of thinking are not inherently harmful, will surround himself with people who both he and the country can trust to teach him what he doesn't have experience with, is a diplomat rather than a divider, and will restore our country to its proper place as one of the foremost members of a cooperative global community. If I were a religious person, I would be praying for the Obama/Richardson ticket that I said would be ideal way back when Richardson was a Clinton supporter and everyone told me it wouldn't happen. I'm too cynical to have high hopes, but I have hope that an Obama White House can fix some of the bad things that have happened to our country.

Yes, it's so tiresome to observe all white people having the exact same opinions.

Details on how large a chunk of the electorate is racist and/or sexist in the way you mention?

i'm not implying any racism or sexism. i'm simply saying that we've had a southern white guy in the white house for the past 20 years. people want a change for the sake of change at this point

Derwood, I understand what you're saying, but I gotta tell you, the idea that it makes a difference is silly to me. We are electing a person, not a region. I do understand that where a person is from is relevant to who s/he is, but it's hardly determinative, and different people are different even if they come from the same place. (In general, in this country I find "group thinking" of any kind troublesome. Not always, but in general.)

20 years?

Johnson - Texas '63 - '69

Nixon - So Cal '69 - '74

Ford - Michigan '74 - '77 (Never Elected !!!)

Carter - Georgia '77 - '81

Reagan - So CAl '81 - '89

GHW Bush - Texas '89 - '93

Clinton - Arkansas '93 - '01

GW Bush - Texas '01 - '08

Only christian white men from the south (Both Bushes promoted themselves as Texans...) or from So Cal (Nixon was a native, Reagan a transplant....), after JFK in 1960....(and even 1960 election is debatable...it was so close...<a href="http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/PopularMythsPopularVote-Gaines.pdf">
[link]</a>) ...have clearly won the popular vote for presidency in the last 75 years.

Hoover was born in Iowa.... Harding in Ohio. Coolidge, from Vermont, succeeded Harding when he suddenly died in office, and he was elected to his own term in 1924. The last man elected without first assuming office, and finishing the term of another president, who was from a northern state, with no ties to a southern state, was Warren Harding, in 1920!

If Nixon did actually win the popular vote in 1960, then we can add two more presidents to the list:

Truman - Missouri - '45 - '53

Eisenhower - Texas - '53 - '61

Not since FDR, if we don't count JFK's "squeaker", electoral college victory in 1960, has a president from a northern state won the presidency, and even FDR had strong ties to the state of Georgia, where he lived for several years preceding his 1932 presidential victory, and where he died in 1945.

The odds seem to be against a nominee, if the history of the last 75 years of presidential politics are any guide, who is clearly identified as a "northerner".

So this all basically comes down to Indiana.

Obama lost by a surprisingly narrow margin in PA today (Obama at 45% and Hillary at 55%). Obama is virtually guaranteed a win in Oregon, South Dakota, and North Carolina. The question is: will Indiana be the next Texas or the next Pennsylvania? Clinton will probably take West Virginia, Kentucky and Montana.

May 6.

Well, I know Obama has visited my town and so has Hillary and Bill. I've received several Hillary campaign brochures in my mailbox, door, and have had Hillary campaign people at my doorstep.

Without knowing the numbers, it doesn't look good for Obama considering this is a conservative state. We do have the Republican nomination locked up after all and there's the whole 'operation chaos' thing going on national and local radio. In Indiana you don't have to choose your party till the day of the primarys :no:

Although I do see far more Obama bumper stickers, it doesn't look good for him as far as I can tell.

It seems the same is happening here in neighboring Kentucky.

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/74/chaosml5.jpg

You know, as funny as the whole operation chaos is to me, I do have to wonder the effects.

Today I'm flipping threw the radio and I hear CBS news doing some editorial. The gist was Clinton won PA by 10% and 9% of the voters registered to vote in the democrat primary that day, therefore those must be Republican switch overs for Hilary.

If I were possessing left wing genetics of sorts, and I was in favor of Obama, I could understand this reaction.

But if Obama's message is hope and change and a chicken in every pot, wouldn't you expect first time voters to be going to the polls for him?

In my opinion some voters would have voted for Hilary just because they wanted to see the Democrats continue to assault each other, but to blame the loss solely on that factor would perhaps be underestimating Obama's appeal to new Democrat voters.

I dont think the crossovers had any impact. Clinton won the Republicans who crossed over (per Rush's instructions) and Obama won the Independents who crossed over....it was a basically a wash.

The demographics of PA had more to do with it....it is a state that is older, more blue collar white and less educated and affluent than the national average...and these were Clinton's core constituents in the primary.

Thats not to say that Obama wouldnt win these voters in a general election against McCain.

Obama is certainly looking like the nominee......... but does anyone think anymore he's the perfect candidate? Attractive, yes. Perfect? No. For that you need Josiah Bartlett.

Here's a laugh for you. We were sitting around yesterday during a break in a mediation, talking about how political races always seem to degrade into negativity and hit-and-run tactics. Most of the people there were Obama supporters and were complaining about Hillary. I piped up "You haven't seen anything yet. Just you wait. Next week Hillary is going to leak it to the press that Obama fathered a black child."

The laughs were enough to tide us over for a couple of hours.

He lied about having MS, but I'd still vote for him.

BTW, I reported earlier that there was a 10% difference. There was actually an 8.6% difference in Penn. Most projections had Hillary at a 15% lead in Penn. And in terms of the percentage of remaining delegates needed, Hillary lost ground.

Yes, but what do you think of Obama fathering a black child? And he's never denied it, either! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Actually, most projections that I saw Monday and yesterday had it at 11%, including what was being released by Clinton's campaign. And the difference in the actual vote is 9.2%, not 8.6%. That's with 99.44% of precincts reporting, so it's not official, but pretty close. She gained 13 delegates on him.

Ah, more outdated information. Yes, the current projection is 9.2%, which is still substantially lower then the average 15% she was expected to win by.

Mine or yours?

Mine is the most official possible since it's coming from the state.

Yours? Doesn't have a source.

10% and 12% projections. Unless you're counting the margin of error, then I never saw a 15% win projected by anyone.

Mine. Did you miss me conceding the point?

Yes I did. And this is my concession to your concession. :)

What do I have to do around here to get a laugh?

I'm laughing hysterically on the inside? :expressionless:

And yes, Barak Obama is black, and it can be a scandal to have a black child.

do I have to explain the thing? sheesh........ McCain was subject to a whispering campaign in '00 because he has an adopted child from the Philippines whom some of the more unprincipled political partisans in South Carolina spread the word was a black child he had sired. So Obama, who is himself black.......

got it?

Oh I got it. It just wasn't funny. Sorry.

It would have been better if you remembered that Strom Thurmond was one of the ones behind the rumors, and he actually ended up having a black child.

Then work in the fact that Thurmond is old by mentioning that he beat Jefferson to having malato kids by a decade. Only word it funny.

If it makes you feel better I thought it was funny and that was before you reminded us about the McCain thing. The sarcastic humor was apparent. Perhaps though the delivery may have been improved had you used 'fathered a white child' instead. The absurd nature would have made it stand out even more.

I'm afraid you have fallen victim to one of the truisms I've discovered. People of some political philosophies have no sense of humor when it comes to their politics. Oddly its sort of the same reaction someone would give you for making a joke about their religion, and my guess is the sentiments are the same.

Ustwo, surely you know me well enough to know that I'll laugh at most things that are funny. Your proposed fixes WOULD have gotten a laugh, but as it is, the left side of my mouth only had a small tremor of a smirk.

//waits to see if you pick up on my funny